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NFL Week 3 Game Picks

I matched my 10-6 record from week 1 again last week in another exciting week of games. This week there will be no game of the week post so we’ll pick a full slate of 16 games in this post for the first time. Hopefully we can mark the occasion by getting 11 or more picks right.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

Line: EVEN

With Brissett starting this has become a much tougher game for the Patriots, especially after Garoppolo looked so impressive in the first couple of weeks. The Patriots coaching staff is excellent at putting their players in a position to succeed, but they’ll have their work cut out for them to prepare a rookie QB to play a talented Texans defence on a short week. Gronk is set to make his return which will help, but I think the Texans new offensive weapons will do enough to capitalise on their already terrific defence here.

Pick – Texans

Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills

Line: Cardinals -4

The Bills have been amongst the worst teams in the league so far this season and there is no reason to believe that will change against the Cardinals. After an initial hiccup against the Patriots the Cardinals blew out the Bucs in week 2 and reminded us all how good they are. This is really a mismatch on paper and it’s reflected in the line having the Bills as home underdogs.

Pick – Cardinals

Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans

Line: Titans -1.5

The Titans did beat the Lions last week, but were very unimpressive in doing so relying on the Lions beating themselves really. I like the Raiders to bounce back from their loss to the Falcons and get back to winning ways here. The Titans offence has been rather uninspiring despite it’s off-season hype and the Raiders defence could be in line to have their best performance of the season. If that occurs then Derek Carr & Co should have more than enough to steer themselves to victory.

Pick – Raiders

Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins

Line: Dolphins -9.5

One of these teams will be leaving this game with it’s first win of the season and it’s clear who the bookmakers think it’ll be based on the line. The Dolphins have had two close losses to big teams now whilst the Browns have been comfortably beat by the Eagles and blew a game against the Ravens. Facing weaker competition for the first time I think the Dolphins will be able to stretch their wings a little more and get into a rhythm against Cleveland.

Pick – Dolphins

Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Line: Ravens -1

I’m going for the slight upset here as I’m going to stick to my preseason thoughts for one last week. I didn’t like the Ravens and they are now 2-0, though not in the most impressive fashion. Meanwhile I liked the Jags a lot and they have 2 losses to their name. I’m still going to stubbornly stick by Jacksonville for one last week though in hope that they come through. Bortles has a terrific opportunity here to shut up his doubters, as their numbers are beginning to grow after a rocky start.

Pick - Jaguars

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers

Line: Packers -7.5

It’s been an off-kilter start to the season for Green Bay with a win over the Jags which doesn’t look too impressive right now and a loss to the Vikings last week. Their offence clearly hasn’t got into a groove yet and it may still take a while for it to do so. In their home opener against a divisional rival though you can bet that the entire team is going to be fired up and ready to go. With the crowd behind them I think the Packers should take this.

Pick – Packers

Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals

Line: Bengals -3.5

This is a terrific matchup between two of the best teams in the AFC and will hopefully provide some exciting viewing. It probably won’t be high scoring though, especially with this Broncos defence involved. This is the Bengals home opener though and their defence isn’t too bad itself. Their offence should have the advantage over the Denver as well and I think that could swing it, with one of the Bengals playmakers making a decisive difference.

Pick – Bengals

Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers

Line: Panthers -7

The Vikings had their big win last week against the Packers to open their new stadium, but I don’t think they’ll carry on their festivities when they travel to Charlotte to play the Panthers. The Carolina offence rained points on a 49ers defence that had pitched a shutout the week earlier. They probably won’t find things as easy against this Minnesota stop unit, but they’ll get their points and I think Minnesota will struggle to match them against a tough Panthers defence.

Pick – Panthers

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants

Line: Giants -4.5

These divisional rivals have had complete opposite starts to the season, the Giants undefeated after two weeks and Washington still searching for it’s first victory. Those Giants victories have been by a combined 4 points though, so I’m not expecting them to completely run away with this game. They should come away with the win though, as Kirk Cousins has had an awful start to the season and isn’t helped by the complete lack of a run game in Washington.

Pick – Giants

Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Line: Buccaneers -5.5

So both of these teams had almost complete turnarounds from their week 1 performances last week. I think they’ll both revert back to their initial impressions for this matchup though. It’d be classic Jeff Fisher Rams for them to beat the Seahawks and then lose to the Bucs just a week later. This is an important game for Jameis Winston also as he looks to bounce back from a bad game last week against a strong defence, his performance could swing the game either way.

Pick – Buccaneers

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

Line: Seahawks -9.5

Both of these teams have played the Rams already this season with differing results, but I don’t think you can read too much into either teams result against them as of yet. Russell Wilson is clearly hobbled by injury, but after seeing the damage Cam Newton put on the 49ers defence I still think Wilson will be able to put up plenty of points here. I’d expect the Seahawks defence to baton down the hatches a little better than the Panthers did last week as well.

Pick – Seahawks

New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs

Line: Chiefs -3

You have to feel sorry for the Jets as they have an absolutely brutal start to their schedule outside of their Bills game last week. Their trip to Kansas City is the start of a 4-week Chiefs, Seahawks, Steelers, Cardinals stretch which could really break their season before it even gets going if they can’t handle it. With the Chiefs at home I think they will snatch this one as their offence gets back on track and limits the turnovers that plagued them against the Texans last week.

Pick – Chiefs

San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts

Line: Colts -3

San Diego had an impressive win over the Jags last week despite missing two of their top offensive weapons. They did it behind a terrific secondary, which stopped the Jags moving the ball and I see that happening against the Colts this week. The Colts heavily rely on their passing game on offence and if that’s stopped they probably won’t be able to get the run game going either. If the Chargers can manage that then they shouldn’t have much problem breaking down Indy’s mediocre defence either.

Pick – Chargers

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Line: Steelers -3.5

The Eagles have had a terrific start to the season behind rookie QB Carson Wentz, but this is a different level of team to the Browns and Bears teams they’ve beat already. Cleveland & Chicago could be two of the worst teams in the league this year so that 2-0 record could be a little misleading right now. Meanwhile Pittsburgh looks like one of the best teams in the league early on and I expect them to show that against their in-state rivals.

Pick – Steelers

Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys

Line: Cowboys -7.5

I just mentioned the Bears as being possibly one of the worst teams in the league so far this season and I can’t see it changing too much after being hit by a storm of injuries this week. I’d expect the Cowboys to take advantage of that as they try to keep pace with the Giants in the NFC East. Look for Dak to throw his first regular season TD pass against this beleaguered Bears secondary.

Pick – Cowboys

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

Line: Saints -3

2 weeks in and New Orleans have had 2 close losses to the Raiders and Giants. Unfortunately for Saints fans I’m predicting another one here as well, as I like the Falcons to snatch a victory in the Superdome. The Kyle Shanahan Atlanta offence started to get rolling a little against Oakland last week and that should continue against a suspect Saints defence missing it’s top 2 cornerbacks this week.

Pick – Falcons

Last Weeks Record: 10-6

Season Record: 20-12

Tom.

@TomSalerno_

@OnTheClock_Blog

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College Football Notebook #4

Week 3 of college football is in the books and it signaled the return of big time matchups after a low key week 2 before it. There were plenty of games lined up with the potential to shape the playoff race and also conference title races. Here we’ll take some of our takeaways from the week, look at some star individual performances, release a new top 25, and predict some big week 4 games.

ACC Madness

The biggest game of the week was arguably #2 Florida State visiting #10 Louisville where two upstart quarterbacks with Heisman aspirations would square off. Florida State came into the season as ACC favourites along with Clemson whilst Louisville was the dark horse pick. Well they are no longer the dark horse and could even be considered favourites for when they visit Clemson on October 1st.

Louisville’s star was Lamar Jackson who has been on fire all season, but the game against the Seminoles showed they aren’t a one-man band as their defence hounded Deondre Francois on the way to his worst performance of the season. They also held Dalvin Cook to just 3.4 yards per carry and allowed just 20 points, 10 of which were conceded deep into garbage time. They will rely on Jackson staying healthy, but this Cardinals team has put everyone else on notice with both Clemson & Houston still on their schedule.

Elsewhere in the ACC Clemson finally woke up after sleepwalking through their first two games and beat South Carolina State 59-0, being up so much at halftime that they agreed to play 12 minute quarters in the 2nd half. In the Coastal division it’s still very close with no standout team. Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Virginia Tech & Pittsburgh all look impressive enough to take the division right now.

Big 12 in Turmoil?

We’re just 3 weeks into the season and it already looks like the Big 12 won’t be sending a team to the playoffs this season. The only undefeated teams are West Virginia who’ve only played 2 games and Baylor who have far from reached the challenging part of their schedule. Oklahoma was supposed to be the Big 12 favourite this season and with conference play only set to begin next week they could still be, but they are currently standing with a 1-2 record. Big games against Houston & Ohio State designed to boost their playoff resume have significantly backfired as they lost both games rather convincingly.

TCU & Oklahoma State were the teams thought to be the Sooners main competitors, but they’ve already had blemishes put onto their records in week 2. Both were already playoff outsiders so without a completely clean record their hopes are all but over. Texas could of being the conference darling this season after a thrilling opening week win over Notre Dame followed by a blowout week 2 win, but now with a shootout loss to Cal they’ll have to run the table to make it to the playoffs. It seems the conferences best chance comes from the team that everyone wrote off after their horrific off-season and that’s Baylor. The Bears will see their first real test when they host Oklahoma State on Saturday.

North Dakota State aren’t your average FCS team

The #13 Iowa Hawkeyes paid $500,000 for the privilege of hosting North Dakota State in week 3. The Bison repaid them by beating them 23-21, ruining Iowa’s perfect record for the 2016 season. This is no surprise to North Dakota State fans though, who have seen their team be paid to beat numerous FBS teams in recent years. This was definitely the crown jewel of their achievements though, taking out a highly ranked school who just last season went 12-2 and came close to winning a Big 5 conference.

One of the first thoughts when you saw this game on the schedule must have been why would Iowa even tempt fate by scheduling the Bison, no less paying them a handsome sum to do so. That question might be asked a little louder when you know that former North Dakota State athletic director Gene Taylor is now 2nd in command at Iowa. Surely after helping build the Bison into an FCS powerhouse he’d know of their dangerous ability. Maybe this will finally ward off teams from scheduling the Bison in the future.

Bama still flying the SEC Flag

It’s been a hot and cold start for the SEC this season, with some big programs losing games they were expected to win or not looking as impressive as they should of. The flagship program in the conference has looked dominant as usual though and Alabama look primed for another Championship run this season. In week 3 though Mississippi were looking to commit some conference self-sabotage and take out the Crimson Tide.

The Rebels have been somewhat of a bogey team for Saban’s squad recently and it looked like they’d get the best of him once again as they built a 24-3 lead with little less than 3 minutes left in the half. Alabama showed why they came in as the top ranked team in the country though scoring two quick touchdowns to make it 17-24 at half time.  With the momentum clearly on their side now they went on to win 48-43 after some garbage time Mississippi scores. With that win Alabama get over one of their toughest hurdles this season and keep that SEC flag flying high in the playoff race.

Heisman Update

If the New York based ceremony were to be held tomorrow there would only be one winner of the Heisman trophy and that’s Louisville’s Lamar Jackson. With games of 8, 7 & 7 total touchdowns so far this year he’s been absolutely electric and essential to one of the best teams in the nation right now. If he can maintain this sort of pace all year then there is little doubt he’ll be hoisting the trophy by the end of the season.

Playing to that level for an entire season is easier said than done though and it’s no given that Jackson, or any player for that matter, could maintain this sort of play for an entire season. One player we know who can maintain a high level throughout the year is one of the preseason favourites Christian McCaffrey. With only 2 games down so far McCaffrey has eclipsed 100 yards rushing in both the games to go along with 4 total TDs. It isn’t as flashy as Jackson, but McCaffrey is putting up big enough stats to be sitting nicely if Jackson slows down at all later in the year.

The other main contender for the award right now is JT Barrett who just led his Buckeyes team to a big win over Oklahoma. He’s not quite putting up the stats that Jackson is, but with 13 total TDs he’s doing more than enough to keep himself and his team in contention for silverware come the end of the season. One outsider for the trophy is Michigan defender Jabrill Peppers who had a big game against Colorado in week 3 and has been a complete success in his new linebacker role. What makes him a Heisman contender though is his added ability as a returner and occasional offensive contribution. Peppers had a return score against Colorado after putting up 204 total yards.

Players of the Week

Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

This section might have to be renamed soon if Jackson intends on making it his own week after week. This week Jackson kept up his usual exploits with 5 total TDs to go along with his 350+ combined yards. What was different though was the level of competition as he piled up his stats against one of the best teams in the country in Florida State. Heisman bells are already ringing in some people’s ears.

Brad Kaaya, QB, Miami

Kaaya had a bad week against Florida Atlantic last week, barely completing over half his passes and throwing 2 INTs. It had some people questioning the hype surrounding the player, well he stepped up this week and slowed down the naysayers with a terrific performance. Kaaya went 21 for 27, racking up 368 yards and 3 TDs on his way to leading the Hurricanes to a 3-0 record.

Donnel Pumphrey, RB, San Diego State

After his 281 yard, 3 TD effort against Cal last week somehow got overlooked Pumphrey decided to do the same against Northern Illinois this week. He didn’t quite hit the yardage with ‘only’ 220 yards on 23 carries, but he matched his TD number with another 3 scores to help take SDSU to a 3-0 record.

James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State

A week after their upset loss to Central Michigan the Cowboys hosted the Pittsburgh Panthers and James Washington seemed determined to get the win. He started the day with a 91 yard TD catch on the games opening play and he didn’t really slow down from there. He finished the day just 4 yards short of the school record for receiving yardage with 296 yards on 9 catches, including 2 for touchdowns.

Zay Jones, WR, East Carolina

While Washington came devastatingly close to a school record Jones smashed his school record for receptions and instead was just 1 catch away from the FBS record. In fact he did initially match the record before one of his catches was changed to a run. Jones had 22 catches for 190 yards against South Carolina, as he was constantly open underneath and helped the Pirates move the chains all day as they had 34 1st downs. It was ultimately in a losing effort as the Gamecocks managed to limit Jones after the catch, limiting the damage they took.

Top 25

1. Alabama

2. Ohio State

3. Louisville

4. Stanford

5. Houston

6. Clemson

7. Michigan

8. Washington

9. Wisconsin

10. Florida State

11. Michigan State

12. Georgia

13. LSU

14. Texas A&M

15. Oklahoma

16. Arkansas

17. Texas

18. Florida

19. TCU

20. Tennessee

21. Baylor

22. Iowa

23. Notre Dame

24. Mississippi

25. Miami

Week 4 Game Picks

Oklahoma State @ #16 Baylor (-9.5)

This spread seems a little high for my liking as people seem to of given up on Oklahoma State since they lost to central Michigan. I think Baylor will eventually win this game, but the Cowboys know how to put up points and I wouldn’t like to bet on them losing by 10 or more.

Pick – Oklahoma State

#19 Florida @ #14 Tennessee (-7)

Both of these teams have raced out to 3-0 starts this season, but it’s the road underdogs who have been much more impressive in doing so. The Volunteers have made a meal of at least two of their games so far and with Florida’s defence playing excellently it’s an easy choice to take the Gators and the points here.

Pick – Florida

#11 Wisconsin @ #8 Michigan State (-6)

The Badgers almost came unstuck against Georgia Southern in week 3, but I’m sure they will be much more prepared for this game against tougher competition. The Spartans were very impressive away at Notre Dame though and you’d have to think that at home they’d be even more ready to put on a show for the crowd.

Pick – Michigan State (-6)

#12 Georgia @ #23 Mississippi (-7.5)

Georgia haven’t exactly set the world alight despite starting the season undefeated, with close wins over North Carolina, Nicholls & Missouri. Meanwhile the Rebels have seen collapses against Florida State & Alabama after holding big leads early in the game. I’ll take the unimpressive Georgia team who at least has managed to grind out wins so far. The added 7½ point spread makes the decision a little easier.

Pick – Georgia

#7 Stanford (-3) @ UCLA

The Bruins haven’t had the best start to the season, losing their opening game to Texas A&M before scraping past BYU by a field goal in week 3. Meanwhile Stanford are 2-0 and have done their job more than capably. I can’t see past Stanford here, even away from home.

Pick – Stanford (-3)

Tom.

@TomSalerno_

@OnTheClock_Blog

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NFL Week 2 GOTW: Bengals @ Steelers

Last week our inaugural game of the week lived up to expectations with the Jaguars hosting the Packers and narrowly missing out on a victory in the 4th quarter. Hopefully our choice this week will be just as entertaining come Sunday. The Bengals and Steelers will match up in a game between divisional rivals both coming off week 1 victories. Whoever comes out on top will take a lead in the race to the division title and potentially a playoff bye week.

Bengals Offence vs. Steelers Defence

The Bengals offence wasn’t quite humming against the Jets last week with Andy Dalton really struggling to deal with pressure from the Jets defence. Dalton was pressured and had just two completions, an interception and was sacked 7 times. The Steelers don’t quite have the caliber of defensive line as the Jets do, but Heywood, Hargrave & Tuitt are no slouches either. The Steelers front didn’t have much luck pressuring Kirk Cousins in Washington’s quick strike offence, and even against the Bengals offence which doesn’t get the ball away quite as quick I think it’s advantage to the Bengals line here.

That should also boost a Bengals running game that averaged just 3 yards per carry in week 1. Jeremy Hill should expect to receiver far more than the 9 touches he had against the Jets this week as the Bengals look for a more balanced attack. On the outside the Bengals receivers should have another good day against a Steelers secondary that gave up over 300 yards to Kirk Cousins on far from his best day. The Bengals don’t quite have the names of the Washington receiving corps, but the trio of Green, LaFell & Boyd should be more then enough for Dalton to find if given time.

Advantage – Bengals

Steelers Offence vs. Bengals Defence

To me this Steelers offence will always be a case of ‘what if’. What if Martavis Bryant wasn’t suspended? What if Le’Veon Bell was playing the entire season? What if Ladarius Green was healthy? Despite all the missing faces this offensive unit still have a chance to be the best in the league this season. It all starts with the connection between Roethlisberger and Brown who form an almost unstoppable partnership, more on that later. The receivers surrounding Brown aren’t as high profile as they could have been, but they still get a job done. In their opener it was 2nd year undrafted player Eli Rogers who seemed to be the guy after Brown who Big Ben would go to. The Bengals have a good secondary though they will likely be able to shut down all receivers except Brown for the most part.

Up front the Steelers line had a solid debut against Washington, but the Bengals will produce more to worry about in this matchup. The battle between Geno Atkins and the interior line could be crucial. If the secondary can lock down Brown for the early parts of plays and Atkins can burst through the middle then this vaunted offence may not have much to offer in response. The Steelers did run the ball extremely well with DeAngelo Williams on Monday night though, with the back going for 143 yards and a couple TDs. This battle will likely be won in the trenches between the two teams opposing line players.

Advantage – Steelers, by virtue of Antonio Brown’s demi-god status

Key Battles

Antonio Brown vs. Bengals Cornerbacks

There probably won’t be a corner that trails Brown throughout the game like he’d see against some teams. Instead he’ll see a combination of cover men as he’s moved around the offence throughout the course of the game. He’ll come up against a combination of Adam Jones & Dre Kirkpatrick on the outside and Darqueze Dennard in the slot if healthy.  It’s that ability to move around that makes Brown a nightmare to cover though, and once the Steelers find the matchup they like the most they’ll do their best to exploit it. Don’t expect the Bengals to just watch it happen like Washington did with Bashaud Breeland though, this should be an evolving situation as the game goes on.

Jeremy Hill vs. Ryan Shazier

Shazier had a true breakout game against Washington Monday night, being the teams best defender against the run and the pass according to PFF. The Steelers won’t be able to stop Hill at the first level as often as the Jets did, so it’ll be up to Shazier along with Lawrence Timmons to make sure he gets no further than the second level. Hill is looking to become a workhorse for the Bengals this season and this will be his first real chance to solidify that role.

AJ Green vs. William Gay

Green dominated the Steelers secondary last season to the tune of 250 yards and a couple TDs. The season before it was 306 yards and a TD. William Gay will be in charge of making sure that Green doesn’t put up similar numbers for a 3rd season in a row in 2016. It’s hard to see him not doing so though as he’s now receiving more targets than ever with Mohamed Sanu & Marvin Jones both gone and Tyler Eifert out injured. It’s possible that Green could put up the numbers he did in two games against the Steelers last season all in one go Sunday if the Steelers don’t come with a better gameplan for him.

Rookies To Watch

Tyler Boyd (Cincinnati) – Boyd had some off-season hype behind him, but he was reserved to 3rd choice receiver behind AJ Green & Brandon LaFell in the opener versus the Jets.  He still could have an impact on this game though if the Steelers slide their coverage to Green, leaving Boyd & LaFell with one-on-one matchups.

Javon Hargrave (Pittsburgh) – He didn’t get the start on Monday night as the Steelers played a lot of nickel defence, but Hargrave won the Steelers starting nose tackle job in training camp. He’s undersized for the position, but the 3rd round rookie out of South Carolina State is more than capable. If the Bengals try to run it more and put the Steelers into their base defence Hargrave could be an impact player.

Prediction – The Steelers are coming into this game as home favourites, but I’m going to go for the slight upset here and pick the Bengals. In the end I think Cincinnati is better equipped to deal with Antonio Brown than Pittsburgh is to deal with AJ Green. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Steelers turn this into a shootout and come out on top, but I have faith in the Bengals defence to limit them to a more manageable total for Dalton and the offence.

Tom.

@TomSalerno_

@OnTheClock_Blog

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NFL Week 2 Game Picks

It was a solid week of picks to start the season off, getting 10 of the 16 games correct. Hopefully this week we can do even better.

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills

Line: Jets -1

Both of these teams started their seasons with a loss, but the Jets came off their loss looking much better. This Bills offence couldn’t get anything going against the Ravens defence and could be without Sammy Watkins so I’m not holding out much hope against the Jets defensive line. The Jets should have enough on offence to grab the win on Thursday night in Buffalo.

Pick – Jets

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Line: Steelers -3.5

Check out our GOTW post on Friday to see a full breakdown and prediction of this matchup

Tennessee Titans @ Detroit Lions

Line: Lions -6

The Titans defence started the season off well against the Vikings as they put all their effort into stopping the run. They won’t be able to do the same against the Lions though and I think it’ll show in the game. Tennessee will probably get more going on offence this game, but I don’t they’ll be able to keep up with the firepower of Detroit. Stafford has been on fire ever since Cooter took over as coordinator and I expect him to keep it up and lead to Lions to victory in their home opener.

Pick – Lions

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns

Line: Ravens -6.5

I was actually hopeful for the Browns and they knocked out any optimism I had for them with a single devastating loss. I don’t think the Ravens are that special either so I wouldn’t be surprised at the upset, but there is really no reason to pick the Browns against anyone at this point. RG3 is injured as well so the offence will have to transition back to Josh McCown, negating an entire off-season of work to build around Griffin.

Pick – Ravens

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins

Line: Redskins -2.5

No one would confuse the NFC East for a powerhouse division, but you can’t deny it’s competitiveness and it’s ability to produce close and exciting games. This is another matchup from the division that could really go either way. The Redskins have plenty of offensive weapons, but the Cowboys defence impressed me enough against the Giants that I think they can hold them quiet enough to grab the win away from home.

Pick - Cowboys

New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants

Line: Giants -4.5

It’s tough to call Saints games as you know that they’ll inevitably put up plenty of yards and points on offence. The question is if their defence will be bad enough that they need all those points to win a shootout or bad enough where all those offensive scores don’t matter. Since Delvin Breaux is out with an injury I’m going to guess the latter against the Giants. Look for Odell Beckham to put up monstrous numbers and pave the way for Cruz and Shepard to have good days also.

Pick – Giants

San Francisco 49ers@ Carolina Panthers

Line: Panthers -13.5

If only the 49ers could play a favoured Rams team every week right? It was a fun start to the season for San Fran after being labeled as one of the two worst teams in the league along with the Browns, but I don’t expect that to continue against the Panthers. Look for Carolina to come out swinging after a tight loss to the Broncos. They’ve had longer to rest with the 49ers coming off a short week and I expect Carolina to dominate here.

Pick – Panthers

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

Line: Patriots -6.5

This could be a major trap game for the Patriots if they allow it to be. The Dolphins always seem to trip them up once a season, usually in Miami, and with the Patriots flying on a high they could get caught out. Miami is coming off a big performance against the Seahawks as well so they’ll fancy their chances travelling to New England this week. In the end though it’s hard to actually pick against the Pats after their opening game victory. Belichick should drag them back down to earth pretty quickly and have them focused on Miami this week.

Pick – Patriots

Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans

Line: Texans -2.5

This was almost game of the week for me, as it’s a rematch of the game that ultimately led to Brock Osweiler becoming a Texan and should be a good barometer for where each of these teams is right now. We all remember how the Chiefs blew the Texans away in the playoffs last season, but they’ve started the season slow like they did last season and were lucky to get a win over the Chargers. The Texans meanwhile looked impressive against the Bears, so with their homefield advantage I’ll give them the nod here.

Pick – Texans

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams

Line: Seahawks -3.5

Wouldn’t it just be classic Jeff Fisher Rams for them to beat the Seahawks now? It isn’t out of the realms of possibility either, as Russell Wilson is not certain to start and he’ll certainly be hobbled if he does. We’ve seen what the Rams offence had to offer against the 49ers though and now they have to go up against an even better stop unit against the Seahawks. If the Rams want to pull the upset they’ll need to dominate on special team as this seems cut and dry for Seattle elsewhere.

Pick – Seahawks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals

Line: Cardinals -7

The Bucs were definitely one of the teams to impress the most in week one whilst the Cardinals really laid an egg when given a perfect opportunity to beat one of the tougher teams on their schedule. That just makes me think that the Cardinals will come out all guns blazing here and try to get up on the Bucs early. I like to Bucs to cover the spread with a late surge, but the Cardinals should pull out the win here. If the Bucs do get the upset then it’ll be time to really start paying attention to a talented young team.

Pick – Cardinals

Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Diego Chargers

Line: Chargers -3

I expected the Jags to be impressive but come up just short against the Packers week 1 and they lived up to my expectations. They now match up against a Chargers team coming off a devastating comeback defeat and the loss of their top receiver. I can’t see past Jacksonville here and I was surprised to see the line how it is. The Chargers do have some pieces on defence, but the Jags usually find a way to put up points and their defence is good enough now to keep it close until they do.

Pick – Jaguars

Atlanta Falcons @ Oakland Raiders

Line: Raiders -5

Boy was that Falcons offence uninspiring against Tampa Bay last week. I don’t see it being much better against the Raiders either, with that stop unit sure to be raring to go after being put to the sword against the Saints. On the other side of the ball the Raiders should feel optimistic about putting up another 30+ points on offence against this Falcons defence. I’ll predict a much more comfortable win for the Raiders this time.

Pick – Raiders

Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos

Line: Broncos -6

So what happens when you have Andrew Luck and all your top corners out injured? You end up in a shootout against the Lions that you ultimately lose. Don’t expect a similar game here against the Broncos, who are obviously much superior to the Lions on defence. While I see the Colts offence taking a step back against a better defence I don’t think their own defence will do any better. The Broncos may have an inexperienced quarterback, but they still have Demaryius Thomas & Emmanuel Sanders out wide and their run game is rolling.

Pick – Broncos

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

Line: Packers -2.5

This pick has caused me the most trouble to make. The Packers looked to have some teething problems getting their offence back into gear whilst the Vikings defence looked as dominant as ever in the 2nd half against the Titans. The Vikings are riding on an emotional wave right now following the Bridgewater injury and playing their first competitive game at their new stadium could carry them through the game. It should come down to how the Vikings QB, whoever it is, does against a solid Packers defence. I’m going to take the upset here with a hot home crowd giving Minnesota the extra juice they need to take the win.

Pick – Vikings

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears

Line: Bears -3

The Eagles are riding on a high after a big win over the Browns to start the season, but they’ll face a much sterner test against the Bears at Soldier Field. The Eagles defence is probably the best unit in this game, but their offence is probably the worst. If Cutler can have one of his good days the Bears should be good enough to get away with a win here.

Pick – Bears

Last Weeks Record: 10-6

Season Record: 10-6

Tom.

@TomSalerno_

@OnTheClock_Blog

[ontheclockblog-blog]

NFL Week 2 Power Rankings

It was a fun first week in the NFL with plenty of close finishes and impressive performances. Here’s how we stack the teams up after the first week of action.

1. New England Patriots

The Patriots are usually at their most dangerous when everyone has written them off and it was no different in the opening game win over the Cardinals. Beating a supposed Super Bowl away from home without a number of key players was particularly impressive even for a Bill Belichick coached team.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

It was a strong opening performance for the Steelers, as their offence seemed in midseason form from the 2nd quarter onwards of their game against Washington. With Le’Veon Bell still to return Pittsburgh can be a danger to any team this season.

3. Green Bay Packers

It was closer then they maybe would of liked and they had to rely on a few moments of magic from Aaron Rodgers, but the Packers managed to get a tough victory away from home to open the season. A big positive from the game was the strength of the Packers defence up the middle.

4. Cincinnati Bengals

They made a meal of it, but the victory is all that matters in the end and that’s what the Bengals came away with against the Jets. The Jets away from home is a tough way to start the season, but if the Bengals want to fulfill my Super Bowl prediction for them they’ll have to improve. Especially in protecting Andy Dalton who was sacked 7 times and hit numerous other times.

5. Seattle Seahawks

In what was expected to be a blowout the Seahawks made a meal of their game against the Dolphins, with the offensive line producing a major problem when trying to move the ball. Their defence is still one of the best though and they have enough talent at the skill positions to sort things out.

6. Denver Broncos

Is it luck if they keep doing it over and over? The Broncos kicked off the season against the Panthers on Thursday with a 21-20 home victory. Trevor Siemian looked more than serviceable as Gary Kubiak finally got to run his full offence with Peyton Manning out of the door. It was the defence and their running game that stood out though.

7. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers probably should of won against the Broncos after holding a 17-7 halftime lead, but they then let the Broncos defence get to Cam Newton and things went awry. On the bright side Newton appears to still be healthy and Kelvin Benjamin looked good on his return.

8. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona has to be disappointed to lose their home opener to a backup quarterback, but they still remain one of the best teams in the league. David Johnson looked as advertised in a feature back role while Larry Fitzgerald continues to roll back the clock. It was strange to see Carson Palmer not go down field as often as he did last season though.

9. Kansas City Chiefs

Andy Reid had us all going for a moment there right? The Chiefs made it hard for themselves, having to come back from a 21-point deficit to beat the Chargers in overtime. The offence showed they can be explosive enough to chase a game after the defence started uncharacteristically deflated.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars

They may have had an all too familiar end result in their game against the Packers, but Jacksonville showed they could hang with the leagues best in their 23-27 loss. Their lack of pass rush could harm them as the season goes on, but everything else looks promising if not quite fully formed.

11. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings being this high is a testament to how talented their defence is. Their game against the Titans showed that if you stop Adrian Peterson that you can largely stop them scoring on you. We’ll see if the introduction of Sam Bradford changes that, but in the meantime their defence will drag them to their fair share of wins.

12. Oakland Raiders

Their secondary came away a little bruised after Drew Brees passed for over 400 yards on them, but the Raiders showed grit to pull themselves back into the game and the onions to put it on the line and win it with a 2 point conversion. That kind of win could be just the kind of swagger inducing event the Raiders need.

13. Houston Texans

A comfortable victory for the Texans at home against the Bears was a nice start to the season. JJ Watt is nowhere near full health yet the defence still ran riot at times and not their offence has more talent to try and match them. Osweiler looking good was the best thing Texans fans could of hoped for.

14. New York Giants

Great win for the Giants over a division rival to give them an instant head start over the Cowboys in the NFC East. It probably wasn’t the best performance they’ll have this season, but there was still plenty to like. It was good to see Victor Cruz back on the field and making plays, the Giants have a good receiving trio now with him Beckham & Shepard.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

We’ll probably only find out if this Tampa Bay team is for real when they visit the Cardinals this week, but they looked pretty impressive to start the season. Winston looked a much better player compared to his rookie season while the defence finally played to a level you’d expect considering the individual talents involved.

16. Detroit Lions

Detroit picked up from where they left off last season and caused an upset to ruin Andrew Luck’s comeback. Though they’ll need to question their pass defence after Luck carved them up for most of game. On the other side of the ball the offence didn’t seem to miss Megatron too much.

17. New York Jets

It was a mixed performance for the Jets as they came close to upsetting the Bengals on opening weekend. The Chan Gailey offence still works and Matt Forte looks to be a shrewd acquisition, though Brandon Marshall was largely held quiet. On defence the line was outstanding as usual, but when given time offences are going to have success against the Jets secondary.

18. New Orleans Saints

Same old story for the Saints again as their defence turns to dust while their offence puts up play after play just to keep them in games. It’s a formula that’s failed the Saints in recent seasons and it failed them against the Raiders at home. Sean Payton has seemingly infinite rope in the city though so don’t expect it to change.

19. Miami Dolphins

A great debut performance from Adam Gase in his new role as Dolphins head coach ultimately saw them fall short to the Seahawks. They’ll now have to play their 2nd straight away game against the Patriots in a tough start to the season for Miami. They’ll have a good chance in New England if they can repeat their performance again though.

20. Dallas Cowboys

So close yet so far the Cowboys as yet another matchup against the Giants went down to the wire. Dak wasn’t as impressive as his preseason performances, even if  he had a solid enough debut for a 4th round rookie. The defence was stronger than advertised, which should bode well for the future.

21. Indianapolis Colts

The Colts defence just had nothing to offer against the Lions as they were slaughtered to the tune of 39 points, the most points conceded by any team in week 1. Luck was outstanding in he return from injury, but it wasn’t enough and if things remain the same it likely won’t be for most of the season.

22. San Diego Chargers

At some point it’s just sad. You have to feel sorry for Chargers fans as they continue to see their team lose close games, lose key players and even flirt with leaving the city altogether. Good teams don’t usually give away 21 point second half leads and now the Chargers won’t have their all-star receiver either.

23. Chicago Bears

It wasn’t too bad of a performance from the Bears against the Texans as they didn’t do much wrong. They just didn’t do anything too great either and against a good team in Houston that usually ends in a decisive loss. On a positive note new linebackers Danny Trevathan & Jerrell Freeman both came as advertised.

24. Washington Redskins

When you make someone the best paid cornerback in football you’d imagine it’d be a good idea to put him on the oppositions top receiver. Norman rarely matched up against Brown though and when he was Brown went catchless. Unfortunately elsewhere Brown caught 8 passes for 126 yards and a couple TDs. Those sort of decisions aren’t hallmarks of good teams.

25. Philadelphia Eagles

It was a great win for the Eagles opening weekend as they started the Carson Wentz era of the franchise. It was against the Browns though so lets slow down slightly on the praise for the rookie. If he can do it against the Bears this week then we might start getting excited as well.

26. Baltimore Ravens

I wasn’t high on the Ravens entering the season and based on this ranking you can probably tell I’m still not too enthusiastic about them despite an opening week victory. They have the Browns next though so it could be a 2-0 start in Baltimore. That confidence boost could actually push them into a good season.

27. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons offence let it self down on Sunday as Matt Ryan played conservatively and it’s skill position players failed to create more than they were given. Their young defence has promise, but it isn’t ready to carry a team to a victory yet and was found out by Jameis and company.

28. San Francisco 49ers

A big opening win for the 49ers doesn’t see them climb any higher than 28th as it came against a putrid Rams team who always manage to sink to new lows when expectations are at their highest. The defence did look very good, albeit against a tainted Rams offence, but their offence was nothing special.

29. Tennessee Titans

All the off-season chatter of being able to run over teams led to a 2.9 yards per carry average. Now that’ll improve when the Titans aren’t up against a superior Vikings defence, but it was still a disappointing sight. We’ll see how they do against the Lions, but there wasn’t a great deal to get excited about in Nashville.

30. Buffalo Bills

The odds on Rex Ryan being the first coach fired must be tumbling by the minute. The coach had a considerably hot butt at the end of last season and a 13-7 loss against the Ravens will of done nothing to cool it down.  They need a result against the Jets this week or their season could come tumbling down with the Cardinals and Patriots to come after that.

31. Los Angeles Rams

Why would we ever believe in a Jeff Fisher led team with Case Keenum as it’s starting quarterback? The offence was completely anemic with even Todd Gurley being shut down by the 49ers. The defence didn’t do much better either as they registered just 1 total QB hit on Blain Gabbert all game.

32. Cleveland Browns

I actually picked the Browns over the Eagles and now I feel stupid. This Browns team just isn’t ready to compete at all. It’s chock full of rookies and other young players and has no real standout players to lean on while those youngsters grow. RG3 is now injured as well so they’ll go back to Josh McCown who received very few 1st team reps all preseason.

Tom.

@TomSalerno_

@OnTheClock_Blog

[ontheclockblog-blog]

NFL Week 1 Takeaways

The NFL returned to our lives on the weekend and it was well worth the wait. Most of the games were incredibly tight, with 4 games decided by just a single point. There were defensive battles for the purists and shootouts for the casual fans. Here are some of our biggest takeaways from the first week of action.

Don’t worry about the Patriots, they’ll do just fine

Heading into Arizona for the opener of Sunday Night Football this season you would think that the Patriots being 9½ point underdogs was pretty reasonable. They had no Brady thanks to his suspension and were also missing defensive leader Rob Ninkovich with his own suspension. They were also without their Hall of Fame TE Rob Gronkowski, their best receiving back Dion Lewis, both their starting offensive tackles and a starting offensive guard. Surely they couldn’t go into a Super Bowl contenders home stadium and knock them off?

That’s exactly what they did, and they looked mightily impressive doing so. The defence did very well against last seasons top offence, with 14 of the points conceded only coming after turnovers. Jimmy Garoppolo looked comfortable and assured in his first start and he still has his best target to return in Gronk. This was supposed to be the Patriots toughest test before Brady’s return, they passed it with flying colours. There’s still plenty of work to be done to maintain it for another 3 weeks, but it’s a terrific start to the season.

The Jaguars could actually be legit

We labeled the Jaguars home game against the Packers as our game of the week and it really didn’t disappoint. If it was the Jaguars team of the past half decade it could have been a blowout, but the Jags went toe to toe with the Packers for the entire game. In the end the Packers won after stopping Allen Hurns on a 4th down screen pass with just 23 seconds to go. The offence moved the ball at will at points of the game, but it was the defence that has come on leaps and bounds since last season. They are still lacking a consistent pass rush, but their run defence is strong and their secondary is now skilled enough to make up for some of their pass rushing woes. The Titans and Colts both had unimpressive losses to open the season so this Jaguars team could have division winning potential if it can outlast Houston this season.

It’s happening again in San Diego

The Chargers crumbled last season as they lost seemingly half their roster to injuries. They went on to lose a number of tight games in often cruel circumstances. Well it’s already started to happen against for the Chargers. It all started so well as they put up a 24-3 lead on the Chiefs, but it wasn’t meant to last. San Diego somehow ended up losing 33-27 to Kansas City after an overtime touchdown run by Alex Smith. To rub salt in the wound the Chargers top receiver Keenan Allen left the game with a suspected torn ACL and is likely to miss the rest of the season. Another top receiver for the team, Stevie Johnson, is already out for the season as well.

Wentz passes his first test

When the Eagles made their surprise trade with the Vikings and got rid of Sam Bradford a lot of people expected Chase Daniel to start, at least early in the season. It was a surprise then to hear Carson Wentz named the starter after just one preseason game, but in his regular season debut Wentz passed most of the tests asked of him. It’s important to not get carried away with this performance as it was just a single game after all and against the Browns no less. It was a positive start for the rookie though and he displayed many of the traits that made the Eagles trade up and take him with the 2nd overall pick this off-season. The fact that it was Wentz leading the Eagles to a victory made it seem like a bright new beginning for the franchise after the Chip Kelly era.

Revis Island no longer a no-fly zone

In 2009 when Darrelle Revis was at his peak Revis Island was a place to be feared. It was a place where the top receivers in the game were fearful of been exiled in. On a list of islands you wouldn’t want to travel to it was up there with the island from Jurassic Park after the dinosaurs killed all those people. In 2016 it’s more the equivalent of a calm Caribbean getaway, at least if you’re AJ Green. There were signs last season that Revis could no longer be fully trusted on his own against elite receivers, but AJ Green did his best to confirm that with 12 catches for 180 yards and a touchdown. If Revis can’t be trusted anymore then that Jets secondary starts to look an awful lot worse than before, luckily they still have one of the best defensive lines in the league.

The Raiders aren’t afraid to hang some onions

Jack Del Rio sure has some onions right? He coached the Raiders to a 35-34 shootout victory over the Saints after trailing 24-10 midway through the 3rd quarter. The Raiders managed to catch up and then overtake the Saints with three 4th quarter touchdowns, all followed by 2 point conversion attempts. They didn’t get the first, but they got the next one to tie the game at 27. The Saints then drove for another score before Derek Carr passed to Seth Roberts for a 10 yard touchdown with 47 seconds left. Now just needing an extra point to take the game to overtime after trailing by two scores earlier the Raiders opted to go for a win and threw a fade to Michael Crabtree. Of course Crabtree made the catch and the Raiders won, what a way to start a season.

The Bridgewater injury doesn’t affect the Vikings defence

Losing your franchise quarterback can be devastating, nevermind losing him just over a week before the season starts. That’s what happened when Teddy Bridgewater went down at Vikings practice the other week and it was such a loss they went and traded a 1st round pick for Sam Bradford. It was Shaun Hill who started at quarterback for Minnesota though and the team didn’t score an offensive touchdown all game. In fact they were held scoreless at halftime and trailed by 10 to the Titans. Enter the Vikings defence. Here are the results of each Titans offensive drive in the second half; 3 and out, INT TD, 3 and out, fumble TD, lost fumble, 3 and out, 3 and out, touchdown. That’s 3 quick stops, 3 turnovers and a garbage time TD to end the game. If this Minnesota defence can carry on playing to it’s potential then the Vikings can still be a dangerous playoff team in the NFC.

The Bucs are going to be fun

2nd year QB Jameis Winston lit up the Falcons secondary to the tune of 281 yards and 4 TDs to open his account for 2016. He spread the ball around (6 players had multiple catches) and looked incredibly poised in the pocket. A sophomore breakout season for Winston could just make the Bucs playoff contenders because he isn’t the only positive in Tampa Bay. Doug Martin & Charles Sims remain a tremendous duo in the backfield and Mike Evans made a great start to the year (99 yards, 1 TD) after catching just 3 TDs last season. On defence the Bucs could finally reach their potential if they continue the way they started. Gerald McCoy was a menace in the middle of the line, but it was Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander at linebacker who took over the stat sheet. Alexander alone had 17 tackles and was always around the ball. This is a fun group in Tampa and they could create a little bit of noise as well this year.

The Texans offence is starting to match their defence

Last season you could sum the Texans up by saying, “Great defence, if only their offence could keep up”. Well so far so good in 2016 as the offence looked much improved on it’s 2015 version. Lamar Miller was the only player to break 100 yards rushing on Sunday and you still get the feeling he could of produced a lot more. New quarterback Brock Osweiler had a solid debut, throwing for 231 yards, a couple of TDs and an INT. It wasn’t a stat sheet stuffer kind of day for Osweiler, but he was very efficient in the short to intermediate game and that’s all the Texans really need from him. DeAndre Hopkins is still a beast out wide, but he might have a worthy running mate now in rookie Will Fuller. The rookie wideout went for 107 yards and a TD in his NFL debut to lead the team in receiving. The defence meanwhile remained dominant despite having a far from healthy JJ Watt. The AFC South could be a fun one this year with the Texans and Jaguars both looking tasty week 1.

Tom.

@TomSalerno_

@OnTheClock_Blog

[ontheclockblog-blog]

College Football Notebook #3

Week 2 was an interesting one in college football as there were no games matching up ranked opponents. There were a few appealing matchups such as the rivalry game between Penn State & Pitt, but for the most part it was about not slipping up for the big teams.

Unfortunately for some teams they weren’t able to avoid the trap doors that week 2 provided and they now find themselves trying to figure out how to rebuild their season. Others flirted with disaster as well before pulling away just in time to keep their playoff hopes alive. Most teams survived the week comfortably though and will be preparing for a much bigger week next week.

The first team to slip up on Saturday was Oklahoma State who lost 30-27 to Central Michigan after a miraculous series of events. Firstly with just 4 seconds remaining in the game with the Cowboys up by 3, they had the ball with 4 seconds remaining and threw the ball away. The officials called intentional grounding and, wrongfully, allowed the Chippewas one untimed down to end the game. What happened then was the longest hook and ladder play in history as Central Michigan completed a Hail Mary to the 10 yard line before lateralling the ball to score a touchdown.

In another upset the #15 ranked TCU Horned Frogs fell to the unranked Arkansas Razorbacks in a double overtime loss. This isn’t as big of an upset as the Central Michigan win, but it was a game that TCU were expected to win at home. The top three ranked Big 12 teams in the preseason now all have an out of conference loss and Texas looks primed for an impressive season. Clemson & Georgia both came close to blowing their season before it’s really began also. Clemson struggled to eke out a 30-24 win over Troy, whilst the Bulldogs won an extremely tight game against Nicholls 26-24.

This week just goes to show that no game can be taken for granted at any level. Luckily for Clemson & Georgia they both survived to fight another day, but they’ll move on to tougher tests than Troy & Nicholls. Hopefully they use their scares to jump up a gear or two and hit their potentials.

Week 1 Prospect Matchup Winners

Cam Sutton vs. Isaiah Ford

Sutton held Ford to 5 catches for 51 yards in the Hokies came against the Volunteers this week whilst also picking up a pass breakup. That pass breakup came on a play where Ford has completely left Sutton in the dust though. Sutton had bitten on a double move and only an underthrown pass allowed him to catch up with Ford and get his hand on the ball. With a better thrown ball on that play Ford could of gone over 100 yards and this would have been a more decisive victory.

Winner – Isaiah Ford

Forrest Lamp vs. Tim Williams & Ryan Anderson

Lamp is a left tackle for a small school in Western Kentucky, but has had a very successful college career. That along with him being slightly undersized with a potential move to guard as a pro reminds me of Joe Thuney who plays for the Patriots and who was at NC State last season. Well he matched up against Alabama’s loaded front seven this past Saturday and more than held his own. In the passing game Lamp didn’t surrender a pressure of any kind. What makes this even more impressive is USC’s Zach Banner was brutalised by the same players last week and he was viewed by some as a 1st rounder before that. Lamp definitely made himself some money with this performance.

Winner – Forrest Lamp

Players of the Week

Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

It’s two weeks in a row now that Jackson has lit up the scoreboard for Louisville. This week wasn’t quite his 8 TD performance of last week, but he did set an ACC record with 610 yards of total offence by himself against Syracuse. He wasn’t too impressive throwing the ball despite racking up over 400 yards, but he was completely dominant on the floor with 199 yards rushing and 4 TDs.

Jake Browning, QB, Washington

Browning is another young quarterback who has had a tremendous start to the season. This week against Idaho the true sophomore had just as many passing TDs as he did incompletions. If this Washington train keeps going then Browning could be a darkhorse Heisman candidate.

James Conner, RB, Pittsburgh

In just his second game back after returning from a season ending knee injury and leukemia Conner had his first 100 yard rushing game of the season against in-state rivals Penn State. He also added another 29 yards through the air and had 2 total touchdowns for the second week in a row.

Royce Freeman, RB, Oregon

Freeman averaged almost 10 yards a carry on his 21 carries to put up 207 yards on the ground, including two TDs. After having just 13 total touches last week against UC Davis Freeman really opened up his legs against the Virginia defence this week. Ducks fans will hope it continues, as their defence has looked shaky to start the season.

Taywan Taylor, WR, Western Kentucky

These aren’t necessarily the best receiving stats of the week, but the 9 catches for 121 yards that Taylor put up may be the most impressive still. Taylor matched up with two top NFL prospects in Marlon Humphrey & Minkah Fitzpatrick and still managed to get the best of them and that sort of performance against that sort of competition deserves some plaudits.

Top 25

1. Alabama

2. Florida State

3. Ohio State

4. Stanford

5. Michigan

6. Houston

7. Clemson

8. Washington

9. Louisville

10. Oklahoma

11. Iowa

12. Wisconsin

13. Texas

14. Georgia

15. Michigan State

16. LSU

17. Texas A&M

18. Mississippi

19. Arkansas

20. TCU

21. Oregon

22. Notre Dame

23. Tennessee

24. Florida

25.Baylor

Week 3 Game Picks

#2 Florida State (-3.5) @ #10 Louisville

This is a really fun matchup and could go a long way towards deciding the shape of the ACC this season. Both teams have started the season very impressively behind Heisman candidate quarterbacks. I like the supporting cast of Deondre Francois better though so I’m taking the Seminoles.

Pick – Florida State (-3.5)

#1 Alabama (-9.5) @ #19 Mississippi

Which Ole Miss team will show up against the Tide? The team that played Florida State in the 1st half would stand a chance, the team that came out for the 2nd half will get blown away. I’m not expecting a USC type of annihilation, but I’m taking Alabama to get a comfortable win to open up SEC play.

Pick – Alabama (-9.5)

#12 Michigan State @ #18 Notre Dame (-7)

Despite being higher in the polls the Spartans are underdogs here. I think the team and Mark Dantonio will embrace that underdog spirit and play this game tough and it’ll be a close game right to the end. I’d bet on the Irish to come through in the end with some DeShone Kizer magic, but Michigan State should cover.

Pick – Michigan State

#3 Ohio State (-2.5) @ #14 Oklahoma

I expected the Sooners to be giving up more points than this after already losing to Houston this season. They have blown past Louisiana Monroe since then, but the Buckeyes are a different animal and have slaughtered their first couple of opponents. I expect them to win by a decent margin here and for JT Barrett to put up some numbers in his run for Heisman.

Pick – Ohio State (-2.5)

USC @ #7 Stanford (-6.5)

USC were completely outclassed in week 1, but were able to rebound against Utah State. Stanford have had a long break since their opening game though so they should be fresh and fully prepared to host the Trojans. I like the Cardinal here behind a tough defence and the best player on the field Christian McCaffrey.

Pick – Stanford (-6.5)

Tom.

@TomSalerno_

@OnTheClock_Blog

[ontheclockblog-blog]

NFL Week 1 GOTW: Packers @ Jaguars

This will be the first of a series of game previews highlighting our game of the week in the NFL. The first matchup we’re going to cover is the Jacksonville Jaguars hosting the Green Bay Packers. The Jaguars come into the season with newfound expectations on their backs after not having a winning record since the 2007 season. Meanwhile Green Bay were expecting a tough battle in the NFC North, but are now a favourite to earn a bye week in the playoffs after some rival injuries.

Packers Offence vs. Jaguars Defence

This could show us how good the Jaguars can be this season. Most of their new off-season acquisitions have come on the defensive side of the ball, with 5 new starters. They won’t come up against many offences better than this Green Bay one, so if they can stop them consistently it could put the rest of the league on notice. Meanwhile the Packers are hoping to be back to full strength after a tumultuous 2015.

The Jaguars will look to crash the pocket in on Aaron Rodgers, which Malik Jackson did so well for Denver last season, and let their edge players mop up and get hits on him. The tight end position could prove to be a reliable outlet for Rodgers though as both Telvin Smith & Paul Posluszny graded badly in coverage last season. Rookie Myles Jack could play a huge role there is the Packers try to target the Jags linebackers in the pass game. The running game will depend on which Eddie Lacy we see and he looked to be in much better form in the preseason. On his day Lacy can run through any defence, but we’ll see if he’s on form this Sunday.

Advantage – Packers just, by virtue of them being a gelled together group already.

Jaguars Offence vs. Packers Defence

While the Jags have plenty of new gaces on defence, they have just 1 or 2 on offence. Kelvin Beachum will start at left tackle, bumping Luke Joeckel into guard, and Chris Ivory will partner TJ Yeldon in the backfield. The Packers though will be incorporating greater roles for their young players on defence, especially at cornerback and inside linebacker.

The Packers are weaker inside than they are on the edges, especially at linebacker, and the Jaguars could have some success with their two headed monster of TJ Yeldon & Chris Ivory. In the air it’ll be a fun matchup to watch as Allen Robinson is one of the best receivers in the league and could be matched up against 2nd year player Damarious Randall. If Allen can draw double coverage then Allen Hurns, Julius Thomas & Rashad Greene should be good enough to win their 1-on-1 matchups. Bortles will have to be safer with some of his throws though, as the Packers have plenty of ball hawks in the secondary and he could be under pressure from Green Bay’s edge rushers.

Advantage - Jaguars

Key Battles

Jordy Nelson vs. Davon House/Jalen Ramsey

This will be Nelson’s much anticipated regular season return after missing 2015 with a torn ACL. Before his injury Nelson was one of the top receivers in the league and had over 1500 yards in 2014. It’ll be fascinating then who the Jags decide to match up with him. Will they go with the veteran Davon House or will they give their 1st round pick Jalen Ramsey a baptism of fire and hope he comes through unscathed?

Packers Interior Offensive Line vs. Malik Jackson & Co.

The Packers released All-Pro guard Josh Sitton in their last round of cuts. Some people openly questioned the move and if Malik Jackson has his way they’ll be even more questions asked of Ted Thompson’s decision to let Sitton go. In his place Green Bay will start Lane Taylor who signed with them as an undrafted free agent in 2013. TJ Lang is still a top tier guard on the other side, but if the Jaguars can match Jackson up on Taylor it could be a key to the game.

Clay Matthews/Julius Peppers vs. Kelvin Beachum/Jermey Parnell

I mentioned earlier that the Jaguars could have some success running up the middle on the Packers, but their bread and butter last season was through the air. If Bortles is going to have time to find his targets though his tackles will have to hit their blocks. Clay Matthews is making his return to the edge this season to once again partner Julius Peppers at outside linebacker, so this will be a stern test for Beachum & Parnell.

Rookie to Watch

Blake Martinez (Green Bay) – With Matthews moving back to the edge the 4th round rookie Martinez will start next to Jake Ryan at linebacker. He could have a busy day against an explosive Jags offence.

Myles Jack (Jacksonville) – Jalen Ramsey could of gone here with his potential matchup against Jordy Nelson or Randall Cobb, but Myles Jack will be keen to prove his doubters wrong at linebacker after he fell to the 2nd round.

Prediction – Vegas has the Packers as 5.5 point favourites on the road, showing little belief in the new look Jaguars. I have a little more faith in this Jacksonville team, but I’m not quite brave enough to predict an upset though. I will say they’ll cover the spread in a 31-27 Packers victory though.

Tom.

@TomSalerno_

@OnTheClock_Blog

[ontheclockblog-blog]

NFL Week 1 Game Picks

The NFL is back with it’s first slate of meaningful games this week, with things set to kick off tonight before an entire Sunday of football and a Monday night double header. Here are my picks for who’ll come out on top of their week 1 matchups.

Carolina Panthers @ Denver Broncos

Line: Panthers -3

Full Kickoff Game Preview here.

Make sure to read Rory’s more thorough preview of the game with the link above, but for me this game will come down to which offence can squeeze out more big plays against these teams formidable defences. Trevor Siemian was the safe choice in the Broncos quarterback battle and I don’t see him taking enough chances to make more plays than the reigning MVP Cam Newton in this one.

Pick – Panthers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons

Line: Falcons -3

I’m expecting a really fun, competitive matchup between the Falcons and Bucs, as both teams have fun offences and suspect defences. The Falcons will be starting two rookie linebackers in their base defence along with Vic Beasley who played defensive end last season, so Doug Martin could have a big day if his blockers can open up holes for him. On the other side of the ball I have no clue how the Bucs are going to stop Julio Jones and I expect him to be the difference. Jones has the potential to go for 200+ yards every week he’s such a special player and the Falcons have enough elsewhere to get the win at home.

Pick – Falcons

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens

Line: Ravens -3

This is a tough matchup for me to call, as I don’t like either teams prospects entering the season. Both teams are bound to be fired up to start the season as the Ravens are at home and the Bills play Rex Ryan’s old team. Last season getting too fired up seemed to work against the Bills though and the Ravens have enough presence about themselves to not have that happen to them.

Pick – Ravens

Chicago Bears @ Houston Texans

Line: Texans -6

Does the preseason matter? If it does then the Bears aren’t in good shape as they looked lost for large parts of it. I actually liked the moves Chicago made in the off-season, but if they are to pay off on the field it’ll be in the regular season. I’m not sure it’ll start in week one though as the Texan’s off-season movements were just as aggressive and they had a better starting point. The news that JJ Watt will now play is another bad sign for the Bears as their offensive tackles aren’t the best.

Pick – Texans

Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville

Check out our GOTW post on Friday to see a full breakdown and prediction of this matchup

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Line: Chiefs -6.5

The Chiefs are not a flashy team, but they get the job done. The Chargers should be well equipped in the secondary to match the Chiefs passing attack, but up front the Chiefs should be able to grind out the game with their run game. Even with Jamaal Charles a doubt to play the Chiefs have a deep backfield and Spencer Ware & Charcandrick West should be more than capable. On the other side of the ball I’m excited to see how much the Chargers offence has improved upon last season, but against a tough Chiefs defence I don’t think it’ll be enough.

Pick – Chiefs

Oakland Raiders @ New Orleans Saints

Line: Saints -1.5

The only things making me hesitate on going all in on Oakland with this matchup is the fact it’s at the Superdome and they are still the Raiders despite their recent improvements. The Saints should have a reinvigorated offence that will give the Raiders some problems, but their defence is set to be a tire fire again after already losing two starters to injury. The Raiders should dictate play on offence thanks to their line and they have enough on defence to hold the Saints back enough to grab a win. Look for a terrific individual matchup in this game with Terron Armstead blocking Khalil Mack.

Pick – Raiders

Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets

Line: Bengals -2.5

I have the Bengals making the Super Bowl this season, so it’d hardly be right to have them lose to the Jets on opening weekend would it. If Revis can have a good game against AJ Green the Bengals could struggle to get much traction on offence though since they have one of the best run defences in the league. Revis isn’t what he used to be though and I expect Green to have enough success against him to open up room for his teammates. The Jets offence depends on if Fitzpatrick can have another flawless season, my bet is on he can’t and it’s based on the rest of his career.

Pick – Bengals

Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles

Line: Eagles -4

This matchup has added intrigue because the Browns own the Eagles first round pick this year, so they could help themselves twice with a win here. Based on recent history that isn’t likely to happen, but the Eagles will start rookie Carson Wentz at quarterback after just 1 preseason game. The rest of the Eagles offence is mostly trash so even against the Browns I’m not sure how much you can expect from him. It’s not as if the Browns have great talent either, but I believe in their coaching staff more and I like them for the upset here.

Pick – Browns

Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans

Line: Vikings -2

Before Teddy Bridgewater got injured I had Minnesota going to the NFC Championship game. While that pick showed my faith in Bridgewater it also showed how much talent I believe the Vikings have in their entire roster. That talent is still there, especially on defence, and it should be more than enough against the Titans. Tennessee are going to try to establish the run this year, but I don’t see them getting much luck against this Vikings front 7. Either Shaun Hill or Sam Bradford could start in week 1 for the Vikings and in this matchup they just have to avoid killer mistakes and they should come out on top.

Pick – Vikings

Miami Dolphins @ Seattle Seahawks

Line: Seahawks -10.5

If you had to pick one blowout for this week it’d be this game, and the line reflects that. There is really no way the Dolphins should be beating the Seahawks at Century Link this weekend. Their offensive line has looked shaky despite the huge investments made in it, they are relying on a beat up Arian Foster and Ryan Tannehill remains the face of mediocrity. Their defence isn’t much better either, relying on everything falling right to be average. Expect the Seahawks to steamroll them behind a terrific defence and Russell Wilson’s playmaking skills.

Pick – Seahawks

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

Line: EVEN

Romo’s latest injury actually makes this game a more fun prospect compared to yet another Giants/Cowboys matchup. Can Dak have his preseason magic transfer over to the regular season? It’s really hard to tell, but he might not have to if the Cowboys follow their run first, run second gameplan and give him manageable 3rd downs all game. That’s why Damon Harrison & Jonathan Hankins could be the key to this game. If they can nullify the inside run game against the Cowboys line then the Giants should take this game. In the end I think the Giants will just about edge a close game.

Pick – Giants

Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts

Line: Colts -3.5

This is my biggest upset pick of the week as I have the Lions getting a win on the road against the Colts. Indianapolis will be without Vontae Davis and Darius Butler at corner, whilst also starting a rookie at free safety. That along with no real semblance of a reliable pass rush makes me think Matthew Stafford & Jim Bob Cooter are going to have a good day in the passing game. The Lions defence don’t have the injury problems in the secondary that the Colts do and the Colts aren’t scaring anyone with their ground attack either.

Pick – Lions

New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals

Line: Cardinals -6

This could have been a potential Super Bowl preview to kick off Sunday Night Football this season, instead it’ll be a shadow of that without Brady on the field. Even with Brady this would have been a tough matchup for the Patriots though and with Garoppolo taking the reigns your money has to be on the Cardinals to take the victory. It’ll be interesting to see how the Patriots defence tries to match up against a high powered Cardinals offence, but regardless of that I don’t see the Patriots putting up enough points to come away as victors here.

Pick – Cardinals

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Redskins

Line: Steelers -3

I don’t particularly like this Washington squad, but I feel as though they match up well against the Steelers here. Unless the Steelers can get DeAngelo Williams going in the run game they’ll have to lean heavily on Antonio Brown in the passing game. Washington just brought in Josh Norman this off-season though, so while Brown will undoubtedly put up some stats it’s unlikely to be a career day for him. On the other side of the ball the Steelers capitalised on a lot of offensive errors last season, but if last season is anything to go by Washington will play it safe and avoid those errors. That should be enough to see them through at home to kick of the Monday double header.

Pick – Redskins

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

Line: Rams -2.5

The 49ers could easily be the worst team in the league this season and I wouldn’t be surprised if they showed everyone why opening weekend. Even with Chip Kelly running the offence, it’s going to be hard for them to produce anything with their complete lack of talent on that side of the ball. Having the Rams defensive line run wild will only exacerbate the problem. The Rams are hardly the greatest show on turf themselves this season, but the power of Todd Gurley alone should be enough to take them through this game.

Pick – Rams

Tom.

@TomSalerno_

@OnTheClock_Blog

[ontheclockblog-blog]

NFL Kickoff Game Preview

The NFL returns on Thursday night and it's back with a bang. A Superbowl rematch between the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos is dripping with intriguing storylines, which should get the ball rolling nicely. Both sides have made major changes in the off-season and it seems unlikely to be a repeat of the one-sided affair that took place in San Francisco. On the Clock breaks down where the game is likely to be won and lost.

Carolina Offense v Denver Defense

Von Miller and company made a mockery of the Carolina offensive line last time around and Panthers fans will be worried that not a lot will change with Mike Remmers and Michael Oher still in place at the tackle positions. On top of that the Broncos have Shane Ray and Shaq Barrett with another year under their belts to rotate with the elder statesmen DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller. The Panthers will need to rely on Jonathan Stewart heavily early and perhaps look to take advantage of the hole left by Danny Trevathan's move to the windy city. Cam Newton will need to be at his best to pick apart a Denver secondary still bustling with all-pro talent, but the emergence of Devin Funchess and return of Kelvin Benjamin should make his job a little easier.

Advantage - Broncos

Denver Offense v Carolina Defense

Peyton Manning guided Denver's offense last season but his retirement wasn't seen as a big problem until long time backup Brock Osweiler also left town, Trevor Siemian has been anointed the successor and Denver will be keen to protect the young quarterback as much as possible against a powerful Carolina front seven. The best way to help Siemian will be to establish the run with CJ Anderson, which should open up Kubiak's favoured play-action style offense. The key for the Panthers will be in the secondary having lost last year's breakout star Josh Norman in free agency. Rookie James Bradberry will step in and have plenty on his plate with the likes of Demaryius Thomas and Emanuel Sanders to deal with.

Advantage - Panthers

Key Battles

Shaq Thompson v Virgil Green

Inexperienced QB's tend to look towards the Tight End as a safety blanket but with the likes of Luke Kuechly and converted safety Thompson in the second level of the Panthers D, it could be a long night.

Broncos pass rush v Mike Remmers

Remmers' Superbowl performance may be difficult to forget and he continued to show stiffness and slowness off the line during preseason. With multiple options in their pass rush armoury it is difficult to see how the Panthers will cope.

Kony Ealy v Russell Okung

Kony Ealy enters his third year off the back of a stellar Superbowl performance and hopes to become the Panthers main threat off the edge. He will be helped by the interior rush from Kawaan Short and Star Lotulelai meaning the injury prone Okung may be tested in a straight up one on one battle most of the evening.

Rookies to watch

Devontae Booker (Denver) - CJ Anderson will be the workhorse back for Denver meaning Booker may be able to come in and take advantage of a worn down Panthers front.

James Bradberry (Carolina) - Bradberry comes in to replace Norman but will be tested in his pro debut against a savvy veteran like Emanuel Sanders.

Prediction - A close game with defenses on top but if the Panthers can protect Cam enough and perhaps produce a score on defense they can avenge last season’s heartbreak and win 21-17.

Rory.

@RoryDanielsOTC

@OnTheClock_Blog

[ontheclockblog-blog]

2016 NFL Awards Predictions

With the NFL season mere days away it’s time to make some predictions. We’ve already predicted who will win their divisions and how the playoffs will go, even though some of those predictions are already dated, so now we’ll predict who’ll earn silverware this season. We’ll start off with the individual silverware in the form of player awards and then finish with the team we believe will win it all this season.

MVP – Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

Last season we saw Cam Newton take a step into the elite as he led the Panthers to a 15-1 record and a Super Bowl appearance. It was such a stunning performance that it slightly overshadowed Russell Wilson’s own leap as he dominated in the backstretch of the Seahawks schedule and played at his own MVP level. In that 8 game run following their bye week Wilson threw 25 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions as he tore secondaries apart. In fairness he played the 49ers, Browns & Ravens, but he also played the Vikings, Rams, and Arizona twice in that run also.

I’m expecting Seattle to stick with that successful formula and for Wilson to continue his rich vein of form into 2016. If he does the Seahawks should be very successful and Wilson would be a frontrunner for MVP.  Newton could also be up there if he comes close to repeating last years heroics, but it’s hard to win twice as feats are less impressive when you’ve already done them before. Rodgers is the favourite with the bookmakers for the award and is in with a shout, but I feel like Wilson has the edge on the field for this season.

Offensive Player of the Year – Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers

Brown has been the most productive and arguably the best receiver in the league for a little while now and is truly an incredible player. Despite being undersized he can get separation on any route against seemingly any cornerback. For the past 3 seasons he has set a very high bar in terms of his stats and then gone on to smash it the following year. If he does that again he’s likely to break Marvin Harrison’s record for receptions and Calvin Johnson’s record for receiving yardage. Brown has continued to defy expectations so regularly that I wouldn’t bet against him doing so either.

This is a strange award as the MVP is almost always an offensive player, so if they are the best player in the league they surely must be the offensive player of the year as well? It doesn’t always work like that though and the recipients of the two awards can be different players. Sometimes offensive player is given to someone who, while not quite in the MVP conversation, has put up remarkable stats (e.g. DeMarco Murray’s season in 2014). If Brown can better his 2015 stats I think he’ll be a shoe in for this award.

Defensive Player of the Year – Aaron Donald, Los Angeles Rams

There are plenty of contenders for this award with big names like JJ Watt, Earl Thomas, Khalil Mack, Tyrann Mathieu, Luke Kuechly, and Von Miller all set to put up terrific seasons that would no doubt be worthy of this award. I’ve decided on Aaron Donald though and truthfully he could of won this award last season if the Rams were a better team. Donald is an absolute monster in the middle of the Rams vaunted defensive line and is really the catalyst for their overall defensive success. Dominant against the run and pass Donald has already totaled 20 sacks in his first couple years in the league. With the move to LA he’ll be in the spotlight more and with more eyes should come more votes in award season.

JJ Watt is currently the favourite for the award, but he is battling injuries and could be off to a slow start to the season. Also as I alluded to earlier Donald may of even surpassed him last season at times, so he can not afford a slow start now. As for Mack, Miller, Kuechly, Mathieu, and Thomas their achievements may be downplayed due to the surrounding talent in their defences. Donald is also part of a talented defence for the most part, but he still stands head and shoulders above them so it could even be a positive for his candidacy.

Comeback Player of the Year – Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

This is a strange award as there are no set criteria for what a comeback even means. Philip Rivers won the award in 2013 even though he started all 16 games in 2012, he just wasn’t quite as good as he was previously so people called it a comeback. Could Tom Brady win this award after coming back from his 4 game suspension? With this award everything is in play, making it notoriously difficult to predict a winner.

I wanted to pick Jordy Nelson for this award since he is coming off a torn ACL and is set to put up some nice stats for the Packers with Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball. I’ve opted for Luck though as if he has just a decent season for him then voters are sure to flock to him for a number of reasons. Firstly he is a quarterback and quarterbacks get most of the attention, but also because he’s Andrew Luck and everyone has had him anointed as the next great quarterback since he was playing for Stanford.

Coach of the Year – Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks

For the past 4 years Bruce Arians and Ron Rivera has traded this award between themselves, each winning the award twice, but I think it’s time for a new owner of the trophy in 2016. Despite overseeing one of the best teams in recent years Pete Carroll hasn’t won a coach of the year award for his work with the Seahawks. I think the Seahawks are going to have one of if not the best record in the NFL this season and after a slightly down year in 2015 I think that will be enough to finally get Carroll over the hump.

He’ll face some stiff competition though, firstly from the previously mentioned Rivera & Arians who’ll look to keep the award to themselves. Bill Belichick is also a strong contender as he is every season and could add his 4th coaches award to the mantle if he can steer a Brady-less Patriots team to a winning record early in the season. Marvin Lewis is also in the picture with a strong Bengals team, as are Gus Bradley and Jack Del Rio who will both be looking to have breakout seasons with the Jaguars and Raiders respectively.

Offensive Rookie of the Year – Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys

This seems like the obvious pick, but I really can’t see past the former Buckeye when it comes to this award. If I had belief in one of the rookie quarterbacks having a solid season it would be a more difficult choice, but none of them particularly impressed in the preseason other than Dak Prescott who’ll be handing off to Elliott. Prescott will likely be replaced midway through the season though, whilst Elliott is set to carry the load for the Cowboys all season long and is a contender to lead the league in rushing yards.

Defensive Rookie of the Year – Myles Jack, Jacksonville Jaguars

This should be a much closer run race than the offensive rookie award, but both of the frontrunners in this race play for the same team. Myles Jack and Jalen Ramsey are the early favourites for this award after Joey Bosa sat out all of training camp whilst in a contract dispute with the Chargers. I’ll give Jack the edge out of the two Jaguars though as front seven players usually get more attention from voters and Jack is capable of making several splash plays as a rookie.

Bosa would have been a key contender for this award had he not held out, but he will now be playing catch up with the Chargers scheme and playbook so it’s hard to see him being as impressive as he could have been without the holdout. Karl Joseph could also be in with a shout on a resurgent Raiders team, whilst Vernon Hargreaves has an outside shot if he can make some plays on the ball like last seasons winner Marcus Peters did.

Super Bowl Prediction

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Seattle Seahawks

These two teams played each other in week 5 of last season at Paul Brown Stadium and it was incredibly close. In the end the Bengals won on an overtime field goal, leaving the final score at 27-24. The Seahawks started last season slow though, so it could be argued that they weren’t at their best while the Bengals were in the middle of an 8-0 start to their season.

If the teams do meet in the Super Bowl though you’d expect them both to be going full throttle and if that’s the case it should be the Seahawks that come out of top. I believe in the Bengals this year and I think they are probably being underrated by most heading into the season, but there aren’t many teams who can cope with the Seahawks best and I don’t think Cincinnati will be one of those teams in 2016. I’d expect a hard fought battle between two great teams, but in the end Russell Wilson will be able to provide enough sparks of greatness than the Bengals offence will and that will bring Seattle over the line for another Super Bowl crown.

Winner – Seattle Seahawks

Tom.

@TomSalerno_

@OnTheClock_Blog

[ontheclockblog-blog]

College Football Notebook #2

After the long off-season full of meaningless spring games, depth chart murmurs, transfer rumours we were finally treated to a full Saturday’s worth of college football this past weekend and still have Florida State vs. Ole Miss to look forward to tonight as well. It was a great set of games to kick off the season as well and leaves us with plenty to think about for the season going forward. Here are some of my thoughts on the week as well as how the top matchups between draft prospects played out. No top 25 or week 2 predictions this week as there are still games to play and there aren’t any standout games in week 2 compared to week 1.

Week 1 Takeaways

Houston is a legitimate playoff contender

What a performance from the Cougars this Saturday. Houston started their season off with a bang, beating the 3rd ranked Oklahoma Sooners 33-23 in a game that wasn’t as close as the score suggested. What’s impressive is that Houston’s offence wasn’t even firing on all cylinders as they settled for 3 short field goals in the first half after long drives.

On another day those missed opportunities could of come back to haunt the Cougars, but they pulled away in the 2nd half thanks to a thrilling field goal return touchdown by Brandon Wilson. The Cougar defence was stellar all game against a talented Sooners offence and they limited the Oklahoma run game before letting their pass rush loose on quarterback Baker Mayfield. That pass rush was led by true freshman Ed Oliver, the first 5* recruit to ever sign for a group of five school. Oliver already looks like a phenom after just one game, finishing the day with 2 sacks.

Eyes from both teams will now look to the season ahead as the Cougars hope to remain undefeated and crash the playoffs, while Oklahoma will have to regroup and make a playoff push of their own. Houston will be hoping that the Sooners can turn their season around as it would boost their own standing, but they still face tough matchups later in the season and are no sure bet to make the playoffs even if they go undefeated. The Sooners should get a win against Louisiana Monroe next week, but they host Ohio State the week after in what could be a make or break game for their playoff hopes.

Heisman race is well underway already

Christian McCaffrey kicked off the Heisman race with a 210 all-purpose yards game against Kansas State including two breakaway touchdown runs to help seal victory for Stanford. It was a solid start to his Heisman campaign for the running back and he’ll need to have more of those performances if he’s to hold off the chasing pack.

JT Barrett probably had the most impressive week of any player, throwing for over 300 yards and 6 touchdowns as well as rushing for another score. Barrett will have plenty of opportunities to impress with the Buckeyes schedule and surrounding talent and could be a main contender for the award if his form continues. One player who had the trophy in his sights who didn’t start so well was Baker Mayfield as the Houston defence really made him work for any kind of joy against them. Also as we know you’re more likely to win the Heisman on a top team and with the Sooners already sitting on a loss just a week into the season Mayfield’s Heisman candidacy may be walking a tightrope these coming weeks.

Impressive performances from sleeper candidates included Lamar Jackson’s 8 touchdown game for Louisville, Greg Ward’s game winning performance for Houston, and Jake Brownings game for the Washington Huskies.  Other more established names also had decent showing which won’t see them fall away from the pack as well, with Leonard Fournette, DeShaun Watson and Nick Chubb all doing enough to be right in the middle of the picture after week 1.

James Conner is the feel good story of Week 1

If you’re unaware of James Conner’s story he was viewed as one of the best running backs in college heading into the 2015 season before a knee injury knocked him out for the year after just 8 carries. That wasn’t the worst of it for Conner though as he was then diagnosed with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma in December of that year. Despite this adversity Conner remained adamant that he would return to the football field and targeted week 1 of the 2016 season to do so.

Conner achieved his goal and not only did he return to the field this past Saturday, he also scored two touchdowns. Conner averaged just 3.1 yards per carry on his return and is still not where he was in 2014 when he was named AAC player of the year, but it was an encouraging sign for the young Pitt Panther. Let’s hope he continues to get better as the season goes on and we get to see him back at him best by the end of the year.

Some teams have started fast….

Alabama were easily the most impressive team of the weekend as they did Alabama things to USC pretty much all game. What will scare oppositions the most if that it looks like the Crimson Tide may of finally found a quarterback who’s talents match the levels of his surrounding talent in Jalen Hurts who had 4 total touchdowns (2 Passing, 2 Rushing).

Elsewhere the Washington Huskies immediately cashed in on their off-season hype with an impressive 48-13 victory over Rutgers. Sophomore quarterback Jake Browning was particularly impressive; throwing 3 TD passes in the 1st quarter. As mentioned earlier Houston also started the season hot and so did the Georgia Bulldogs who beat North Carolina 33-24 behind the strong running of Nick Chubb.

Meanwhile in the Big 10 Michigan and Ohio State beat their respective opponents by a combined score line of 140-13. Both the Buckeyes and Wolverines started out as you would of expected them to, with neither Urban Meyer nor Jim Harbaugh allowing their teams any earlier season hiccups against lower opposition.

And some teams have started painfully slow

Speaking of early season hiccups the LSU Tigers had one against Wisconsin and took away any room for error in their playoff hunt this season. The Tigers scored just 7 points on a tough Badgers defence with LSU’s other points coming from a pick 6 by Tre’Davious White. Leonard Fournette didn’t have his best day, but neither he nor the defence was LSU’s problem. Brandon Harris once again limited their potential as he completed just 12 of his 21 passes and threw 2 interceptions, including the one that ended the game as a competitive contest. In doing so he has put LSU’s season and Les Miles’ job on the brink of destruction.

Tennessee were another SEC team to start off slow in their season opener even though they got the win after a dramatic overtime period. The Volunteers entered the season as favourites to win the SEC East, but they needed overtime to beat Appalachian State and were very unimpressive in their performance. Clemson were another team who came away with a victory in lackluster fashion, beating Auburn by just 6 points. On the bright side their defence looked solid, but their offence still has some early season kinks to work out for the time being. UCLA weren’t as lucky as Tennessee or Clemson and their below-par performance saw them lose to Texas A&M in overtime after Josh Rosen started his season in awful fashion with 3 interceptions.

Week 1 Prospect Matchup Winners

Myles Garrett vs. Conor McDermott

McDermott held his own early on as he was aided by quick passes and chip blocks, but as the game went on Garrett unleashed his full arsenal of moves and showed us why he’s a top 5 prospect. Garrett only had one sack to finish the game, but had multiples pressures throughout the game as the A&M defence forced Josh Rosen to throw 3 interceptions.

Winner – Myles Garrett

Zach Banner vs. Tim Williams & Ryan Anderson

It was a rough day for USC in a lot of ways as they got blew out by Alabama. That was reflected in USC offensive tackle Zach Banner’s inability to stop either Crimson Tide edge player getting into the Trojan backfield. The only real positive for Banner was the leadership he showed in keeping the spirits up of some of the younger players on the USC sideline. Ryan Anderson especially had a nice game on the edge and could be gaining more attention from NFL scouts this season.

Winner – Tim Williams & Ryan Anderson

Juju Smith-Schuster vs. Marlon Humphrey

When it rains it pours and things were definitely pouring down on USC to start the season. Smith came into the season as the prospective top receiver in the nation, yet he was held to just a single catch for 9 yards against Alabama. The tide bracketed him most of the night, but if he wants to be seen as an elite receiving prospect he still needs to produce more in those matchups. Humphrey had a good day as you might expect and even had a pick 6 off of a deflected pass, giving him the decisive win in this battle.

Winner – Marlon Humphrey

Tom.

@TomSalerno_

@OnTheClock_Blog

[ontheclockblog-blog]

Best Football Bets for 2016

Here we’ll take a look at some of the best bets to make for the upcoming NFL and college football seasons. All the odds were collected on August 30th 2016 from Bovada.

NFL

Arizona Cardinals over 9 ½ Wins (-250)

This bet doesn’t provide tremendous odds, but it seems such a sure bet that it’s still good value. In Bruce Arians three seasons as Cardinals head coach the team’s win totals have been 10, 11 and finally 13 last season. The Cardinals are even stronger on paper this season and their schedule should help them. They’ll play the AFC East & NFC South who both have a single dominant team and then a group of lesser teams who Arizona should be able to feast on. They’ll also face the Patriots during Tom Brady’s suspension which is a massive boost.

Cincinnati Bengals over 9 ½ Wins (Even)

This bet is even better than the Cardinals in terms of odds and I’d say it’s just as safe. The Bengals have notched up double digit wins the past four seasons and went 12-4 last year. They’ll face the AFC East and NFC East this season so should be able to rack up wins on almost everyone except the Patriots. Even if the Steelers are better than expected this still seems like a solid bet to make for the Bengals.

Drew Brees to lead league in passing yardage (+300)

Since 2011 Brees has led the league in passing every season except for Peyton Manning’s record breaking year in 2013. With Manning out of the league there is no chance of that happening again and the road appears clear for Brees to win his 3rd straight and 7th overall passing title in 2016. No bet revolving around a single player is a sure thing since injuries can strike at any point, but this is as sure as they can be and at these odds the rewards are well worth the minimal risk.

Minnesota Vikings to win NFC North (+200)

If you’re as high on the Vikings as me then you’ll love these odds as well. The Vikings are the current NFC North champions and my pick to win it again in 2016. If you agree you have the chance to double your win double your money with these odds and even if you don’t you can hedge with the Packers at -175. If you placed 175 on the Packers and 100 on the Vikings you’d be up 25 if the Vikings won or back where you started if the Packers did. You’d be risking it all if the Bears or Lions surprised though.

EDIT: This was written before Teddy Bridgewater’s unfortunate injury and  Bovada is no longer listing odds for the NFC North. When new odds are available then the easy bet is the Packers.

New England Patriots to win AFC East (-240)

With Brady’s suspension you’re getting better odds then you would of otherwise, but the bet is probably just as safe. In 16 Belichick seasons the Patriots have won the AFC East a remarkable 13 times, including the last 7 in a row. Even with the Brady suspension the Patriots are rightfully favourites for the division over their fellow AFC East counterparts who have never been able to put everything together in recent history.

Cincinnati Bengals to win AFC North (+190)

If you want to double down some on the Bengals over/under bet from earlier then this is a solid bet to make. The Steelers are looming this year, but suspensions for Martavis Bryant & LeVeon Bell weaken them before the season even starts. Bell will also be suspended for the Bengals first matchup against the Steelers, giving Cincinnati a greater chance of victory and a potentially big advantage in division tiebreakers.

College

Clemson to win ACC (+150)

This bet is easy money if you hedge it with a Florida State bet at +210. The Tigers and Seminoles are by far the best two teams in the ACC this year and the only reason their odds are this good is because they’ll have to battle each other to even make it to the conference championship game. If you think there is no way an upset happens against a team like North Carolina in the championship game then this along with Florida State is the bet for you. If you’re feeling more risky you could boost your potential winnings and go with one or the other instead of hedging with both.

Ohio State to win Big 10 (+160)

The Buckeyes are favourites for a reason in the Big 10 after losing just 4 games since Urban Meyer took the reigns in 2012. They will still have plenty of talent to fill the roster, despite losing a bunch to the draft, thanks to Meyer’s prodigal recruiting talents. The Buckeyes have actually won the Big 10 is each of Meyer’s four seasons in Columbus so this seems like a rather safe bet. If you are nervous that he can’t make it 5 in a row though it seems Michigan are their biggest rival and you can hedge your bet by placing some money on the Wolverines at +200.

Alabama to win SEC (+175) & make Playoffs (+145)

If you assume that whoever wins the SEC West will win the conference outright, as has been the case the previous 7 seasons, then the realistic contenders are narrowed down to Alabama, LSU & Mississippi. Ole Miss are missing a lot of talent from last season and LSU haven’t managed to put it together to win the big games recently so Alabama are the best bet here. If you’re going to bet that the Crimson Tide will win the SEC then it’s a very easy thing to double down and say they’ll make the playoffs as well. It’s hard to see the winner of college footballs premier conference not making the playoffs, so with those odds it’s a very tempting bet.

Christian McCaffrey over 1550 ½ Yards Rushing (-130)

With Heisman aspirations in 2016 McCaffrey will be looking to blow this projection out of the water, and after putting up over 2000 rushing yards last season there is no reason to think he will fail to do so. McCaffrey is set to be the key cog in Stanford’s offence once again and it would be a huge surprise to see his stats decline by such a large margin barring injury.

Christian Kirk over 850 ½ Yards Receiving (-140)

After a breakout freshman campaign in which he put up over 1000 yards for Texas A&M this total seems rather low. The Aggies have lost a number of their quarterbacks to transfers recently, but they have an incoming transfer set to start this season with former Oklahoma Sooner Trevor Knight. Whilst not a special talent like some other quarterbacks in the college ranks Knight isn’t awful either and should be able to get the ball to Kirk enough for him to blow by 850 receiving yards.

Tom.

@TomSalerno_

@OnTheClock_Blog

[ontheclockblog-blog]

College Football Notebook #1 - Preseason

College Football is back!!!!

Welcome to my first ever college football notebook, I’ll be trying to get one done every Monday until the end of the college football season. They’ll essentially cover all of my musing from the college football week, game predictions, draft related topics and anything else that comes to mind. If I don’t have much to say that week they could be rather short, or if I have plenty to say they could be quite lengthy. This week there isn’t much to talk about as we wait for games to be played so it’s just predictions, my All-American team, my Preseason top 25 and some predictions for the biggest games in week 1.

Predictions

Conference Winners

ACC: Clemson

Big 10: Ohio State

Big 12: Oklahoma

Pac-12: Stanford

SEC: Alabama

Playoff Teams

1. Clemson

2. Alabama

3. Ohio State

4. Stanford

National Championship

Clemson over Alabama

Award Winners

Heisman Trophy: Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford

Best QB: Deshaun Watson, Clemson

Best RB: Leonard Fournette, LSU

Best WR: Juju Smith-Schuster, USC

Best TE: Jake Butt, Michigan

Best OL: Pat Elflein, Ohio State

Best DL: Myles Garrett, Texas A&M

Best LB: Jabril Peppers, Michigan

Best DB: Desmond King, Iowa

Preseason All-American Team

QB: Deshaun Watson, Clemson

RB: Leonard Fournette, LSU

RB: Christian McCaffrey, Stanford

WR: Juju Smith-Schuster, USC

WR: Calvin Ridley, Alabama

TE: Jake Butt, Michigan

OT: Mike McGlinchey, Notre Dame

OG: Dan Feeney, Indiana

C: Pat Elflein, Ohio State

OG: Dorian Johnson, Pittsburgh

OT: Cam Robinson, Alabama

DE: Myles Garrett, Texas A&M

DT: Malik McDowell, Michigan State

DT: Jonathan Allen, Alabama

DE: Carl Lawson, Auburn

LB: Jabrill Peppers, Michigan

LB: Reuben Foster, Alabama

LB: Devonte Fields, Louisville

CB: Desmond King, Iowa

SS: Derwin James, Florida State

FS: Budda Baker, Washington

CB: Jourdan Lewis, Michigan

K: Jake Elliott, Memphis

P: Hayden Hunt, Colorado State

Returner: Christian McCaffrey, Stanford

Preseason Top 25

1. Clemson

2. Alabama

3. Florida State

4. Ohio State

5. Oklahoma

6. Stanford

7. LSU

8. Notre Dame

9. Michigan

10. Washington

11. TCU

12. Tennessee

13. Houston

14. UCLA

15. Iowa

16. Mississippi

17. Michigan State

18. Louisville

19. Oklahoma State

20. USC

21. Georgia

22. North Carolina

23. Oregon

24. Florida

25.Northwestern

Week 1 Game Picks

#3 Oklahoma (-10) vs. #15 Houston

With this spread I like Houston after having a full off-season to prepare for the standout game on their schedule. This Houston team went 13-1 last year, including a win over Florida State in the Peach Bowl, and I think they’ll keep it close even if they can’t pull out the victory.

Pick – Houston

#16 UCLA @ Texas A&M (-3)

Last season the Aggies opened up against the #15 ranked Arizona State at home and won 38-17 after being favoured by 3 just like this game here. It’ll be a tough ask for UCLA for the same reasons that Arizona State struggled last season, but UCLA are the better team on paper so you have to take the points.

Pick - UCLA

#5 LSU (-10) vs. Wisconsin

I can’t see past a game where LSU just slowly pulls away from the Badgers here. Fournette will be able to grind out the Wisconsin defence while LSU will just have too much athleticism for the Badgers to get anything going themselves.

Pick – LSU (-10)

#18 Georgia (-3) vs. #22 North Carolina

I like the bulldogs to start the Kirby Smart era big and get a comfortable victory over the Tar Heels. It’s rumoured that Jacob Eason will be the starting quarterback for the game, which I think is the right choice, and I think he’ll keep himself out of trouble and let the deep Georgia backfield do the tough work for him.

Pick – Georgia (-3)

#20 USC vs. #1 Alabama (-10.5)

In the past three years Alabama have scheduled these openers against teams in the top 20-35 or so of rankings. In these games they’ve never looked overly convincing throughout the game in it’s entirety. I don’t think that will change here and the Trojans will be able to stick around just long enough to beat the spread.

Pick - USC

#2 Clemson (-7.5) @ Auburn

Clemson aren’t AP’s top ranked team, but they are mine and for good reason. In a Tiger on Tiger matchup it’ll be the team from South Carolina running rampant over it’s Alabama namesakes. I’m expecting Clemson to use this as a statement game to put the rest of college football on notice.

Pick – Clemson (-7.5)

#10 Notre Dame (-3.5) @ Texas

I like this young Texas team, but they are coming up against a talented team in the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame are strong up front on offence and DeShone Kizer and is going to be able to sling the ball around against Texas if they can’t pressure him.

Pick – Notre Dame (-3.5)

#11 Mississippi vs. #4 Florida State (-4.5)

Ole Miss could still be very good this season, but they just lost so much talent it’s hard to see them coming out of the gates hot against one of the best teams in college football this year. There is hope if Florida State’s redshirt freshman quarterback struggles early on, but the Seminoles have enough talent throughout their team to outlast the Rebels.

Pick – Florida State (-4.5)

Tom.

@TomSalerno_

@OnTheClock_Blog

[ontheclockblog-blog]

2016 SEC Conference Preview

Note: This week we’ll preview each of the top 5 college football conferences now that games are just over a week away. We’ll look at the top games in each conference, star players, All-Conference teams, award predictions, final standings predictions and some of the top storylines heading into the season. Today’s instalment will look at the SEC.

Games to Watch

Alabama vs. USC (Arlington) (Sep 3rd)

LSU vs. Wisconsin (Green Bay) (Sep 3rd)

Clemson @ Auburn (Sep 3rd)

Georgia vs. North Carolina (Atlanta) (Sep 3rd)

Mississippi vs. Florida State (Orlando) (Sep 5th)

Florida @ Tennessee (Sep 24th)

Georgia @ Mississippi (Sep 24th)

Tennessee @ Georgia (Oct 1st)

Florida vs. Georgia (Jacksonville) (Oct 29th)

Alabama @ LSU (Nov 5th)

Florida @ Florida State (Nov 26th)

Auburn @ Alabama (Nov 26th)

SEC Championship Game (Dec 3rd)

Star Players

Offence

Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU (Jr.)

Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama (So.)

Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M (So.)

Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama (Jr.)

Defence

Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M (Jr.)

Jonathan Allen, DL, Alabama (Sr.)

Reuben Foster, LB, Alabama (Sr.)

Jalen Tabor, CB, Florida (Jr.)

3 Big Questions

Who wins the East?

It looks to be a tight competition in the East as there are 3 teams with a decent shot of making it to the conference championship game this season. Those teams are Florida, Georgia and the favourites Tennessee. All of these schools could be categorised as sleeping giants as none of them have truly threatened to be national champions in a while now. That makes it exciting to see at least one of them taking a step to getting back up to the top of the mountain, though which will it be?

First the favourite Volunteers, who’ve grown better each season under head coach Butch Jones. After finishing his first season 5-7 the Volunteers were up to 9-4 last year and they’ll return 18 starters in 2016. Those returning starters include starting quarterback Joshua Dobbs and star running back Jalen Hurd. If Dobbs and Hurd can improve their games the division may already be won, but if not the Tennessee defence is well equipped to step up. Derek Barnett is a top draft prospect on the edge, as is Jalen Reeves-Maybin at linebacker and Cam Sutton & Evan Berry in the secondary.

Georgia’s chances under new head coach Kirby Smart could come down to his first big decision, who to start at quarterback. Making the correct choice there could make or break the Bulldogs season and his options are redshirt senior Greyson Lambert, who would be a safe yet uninspiring choic or true freshman Jacob Eason, who would be the more exciting yet unstable option. Meanwhile in Gainesville Jim McElwain won the East in his first season last year and will look to do so again behind a very strong defence.

Can LSU topple Alabama in the West?

While the children squabble over the East Nick Saban will try to keep order over the adult’s table in the West. At least that’s how some Alabama fans must view things since the West has won the last 7 SEC Championship Games with the Crimson Tide accounting for 4 of those victories. If that trend were to continue then the winner of the West should win the SEC and then surely earn a spot in the playoffs.

The main challengers to Alabama’s title this season are Mississippi and LSU. Mississippi still have the talented Chad Kelly at quarterback and some other pieces, but after losing so much talent to the pro’s you’d think they are set for a step back in 2016. The more likely challenger is LSU behind the freakish running of Leonard Fournette. The Tigers will also have a terrific defence no doubt, but the question is how much they can get out of quarterback Brandon Harris. He’ll have some talented receivers to work with in Travin Dural & Malachi Dupre, but if Harris can’t produce a positive season the Tigers will struggle to maintain speed with Alabama.

Bama themselves are naturally loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. Bo Scarbrough is set to become the next in the line of star tailbacks for the Crimson Tide, while Calvin Ridley & OJ Howard will lead the team through the air with a new quarterback yet to be named. On defence the team has an embarrassment of riches starting with possibly the best senior draft prospect in the country in Jonathan Allen. Tim Williams, Reuben Foster, Eddie Jackson & Marlon Humphrey could all be high round draft picks next off-season and that’s just the tip of the iceberg in Tuscaloosa. If the Tide lives up to expectations then another national championship could be on the horizon never mind just an SEC championship.

Which coaches could lose their jobs this season?

When you coach in the SEC you need to win. You’re coaching the best against the best so you’re expected to be the best. Anything less then that and your school will soon be looking elsewhere for someone who can be. So whose jobs are on the line this year and who just has heated seating in his office? Coaches in their first years with schools are usually safe and it’d be hard to see McElwain, Saban, Jones or Bielema being given their walking papers. Everyone else though would seem to have their necks on the line if 2016 doesn’t go to plan.

Les Miles is the biggest fish that could be coaching elsewhere in 2017 after he was a whisker away from losing his job at the end of last season. Could the Tigers really get rid of Miles? If he fails to hit double digit wins for the 3rd season in a row with one of the most talented squads in the country then it isn’t crazy to think about. The other big name is Kevin Sumlin who after a tremendous start to SEC life has come crashing back down to earth. Any further decline from the Aggies could see a coach who was once tipped to be a future NFL head coach put on the street.

Gus Malzahn at Auburn is another coach who started out hot with a 12-2 debut season ending in a National Championship Game defeat. Since then he’s gone just 6-10 in conference play. If Auburn can’t show some signs of life, especially on offence, then Malzahn might be back to coordinating in 2017. Dan Mullen isn’t a likely name to leave Mississippi State thanks to his success there, but losing Dak Prescott could see a steep decline for them that could cause some murmurs. The most likely name to get canned is Mark Stoops at Kentucky who arrived to some fanfare, but has gone 4-20 in SEC games so far. Things don’t look promising this year either and he could be looking for a job soon. Derek Mason is the last coach with pressure on him to succeed as he’s gone 2-14 in the SEC with Vanderbilt in his first couple seasons.

Award Predictions

Offensive POY – Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU

Defensive POY – Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M

Coach of the Year – Nick Saban, Alabama

Top Freshman – Jacob Eason, QB, Georgia

Breakout Player – Da’Shawn Hand, DL, Alabama

Pre-Season All-Conference Team

QB – Chad Kelly, Mississippi

RB1 – Leonard Fournette, LSU

RB2 – Nick Chubb, Georgia

WR1 – Calvin Ridley, Alabama

WR2 – Christian Kirk, Texas A&M

TE – OJ Howard, Alabama

OT – Cam Robinson, Alabama

OG – Alex Kozan, Auburn

C – Ethan Pocic, LSU

OG – Jashon Robertson, Tennessee

OT – Dan Skipper, Arkansas

DE – Myles Garrett, Texas A&M

DT – Jonathan Allen, Alabama

DT – Davon Godchaux, LSU

DE – Carl Lawson, Auburn

LB – Reuben Foster, Alabama

LB – Jarrad Davis, Florida

LB – Tim Williams, Alabama

CB – Jalen Tabor, Florida

FS – Eddie Jackson, Alabama

SS – Jamal Adams, LSU

CB – Tre’Davious White, LSU

P – Johnny Townsend, Florida

K – Daniel Carlson, Auburn

Returner – Christian Kirk, Texas A&M

Final Standings Prediction

East

1. Tennessee

2. Georgia

3. Florida

4. Missouri

5. Kentucky

6. Vanderbilt

7. South Carolina

West

1. Alabama

2. LSU

3. Mississippi

4. Texas A&M

5. Arkansas

6. Auburn

7. Mississippi State

Conference Title Game Prediction

Alabama over Tennessee

Tom.

@TomSalerno_

@OnTheClock_Blog

[ontheclockblog-blog]

2016 Pac-12 Conference Preview

Note: This week we’ll preview each of the top 5 college football conferences now that games are just over a week away. We’ll look at the top games in each conference, star players, All-Conference teams, award predictions, final standings predictions and some of the top storylines heading into the season. Today’s instalment will look at the Pac-12.

Games to Watch

USC vs. Alabama (Arlington) (Sep 3rd)

UCLA @ Texas A&M (Sep 3rd)

Stanford @ Washington (Sep 30th)

Washington @ Oregon (Oct 8th)

Stanford @ Notre Dame (Oct 15th)

Stanford @ Oregon (Nov 12th)

USC @ UCLA (Nov 19th)

Washington @ Washington State (Nov 25th)

Notre Dame @ USC (Nov 26th)

Pac-12 Championship Game (Dec 2nd)

Star Players

Offence

Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA (So.)

Luke Falk, QB, Washington State (RS-Jr.)

Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford (Jr.)

Juju Smith-Schuster, WR, USC (Jr.)

Defence

Lowell Lotulelei, DT, Utah (Jr.)

Sidney Jones, CB, Washington (Jr.)

Adoree’ Jackson, CB, USC (Jr.)

Budda Baker, S, Washington (Jr.)

3 Big Questions

Is the Huskies hype real, or will Stanford reign again?

Everyone has Washington as their dark horse pick to win the North and the Pac-12 this season, so much so that you can’t really consider them a dark horse at this point. The Huskies definitely have a lot going for them, but they were just 4-5 in Pac-12 play last season and 7-6 overall. Can they realistically make such a big jump to win the division against a strong Stanford squad, an under the radar Oregon Ducks and even in-state rival Washington State with star quarterback Luke Falk.

To figure that out you first have to look at everything Washington has going for them. Well they’ll return 17 starters and on offence they’ll be led by two true sophomores at quarterback and running back. Normally that wouldn’t inspire much confidence, but for the Huskies Jake Browning & Myles Gaskin are coming off extremely promising freshman campaigns and are poised to jump into the national mindset. On defence they have the potential to be the best in the conference with a fierce secondary led by Budda Baker & Sidney Jones. Finally they are led by one of the most respected coaches in the nation Chris Peterson, who will enter his 3rd season as Huskies head coach.

So what will their main challenges be? The biggest will be Stanford, who have won the Pac-12 in 3 of the last 4 seasons. The Cardinal are led by Heisman hopeful Christian McCaffrey and are always one of the toughest teams in the nation. Stanford enter the season as favourites to win the north division, but Oregon are never too far away as between them and Stanford they’ve won every single Pac-12 (Or Pac-10) title since 2009. If the race is close at the end then Washington will have to play in-state rivals Washington State at their rivals home stadium. The Huskies have the talent to make it a close run race, but I’m not sure they have the legs or the experience to come out on top this time.

Who will win the battle of LA in the South division?

Down in the South division everything looks set up for a battle between the two LA teams to decide who gets the honour of going to the conference championship game. The Utes are hovering just behind them rather ominously, but Utah lost to both USC & UCLA last season and the LA teams do seems to be a step ahead going into 2016.

So to start with the traditional big brother in the rivalry the Trojans are the current South division champions after an up and down season in 2015. This will be Clay Helton’s 1st full season in charge of the team after taking over midway through last season. He’ll have to put his trust in a new starting quarterback when Max Browne steps on the field to start the season, but he’ll have plenty of talent around him to help. Juju Smith-Schuster is one of the best receivers in the nation and USC has a deep backfield to lean on. The offence could well be prolific, but the defence isn’t quite on the same level despite being led by the dynamic Adoree’ Jackson at cornerback.

On paper UCLA are slight favourites thanks to a number of perceived advantages, starting with the chosen one starting at quarterback. Josh Rosen was terrific as a freshman and is viewed as a future 1st overall draft pick already. The Bruins will also host the Trojans at the Rose Bowl this season, providing homefield advantage for the all important rivalry game. Star defensive lineman Eddie Vanderdoes will also return from injury to give the UCLA defence a much needed boost against the run. Whoever wins the division in the end it’s sure to be an exciting race.

Can the Pac-12 catch the national headlines again?

Viewed by many as the chief rival to the SEC in terms of being the top college football conference the Pac-12 didn’t send a team to the college football playoffs last season and has had only one Heisman winner (Mariota) since Reggie Bush won the award in 2005. Can the conference send a team to the playoffs this season or will their drought stretch to two seasons. The conference also has a leading Heisman candidate in Christian McCaffrey and also some sleeper prospects, but can they draw enough attention to the late night Pac-12 schedule?

Firstly can a Pac-12 team make the playoffs this season? Well of course they can, any undefeated Pac-12 team would be a sure bet to earn a playoff spot, but how likely is that? Stanford as conference champions missed out last season partly thanks the conference destroying itself with a close loss to Oregon kicking them out of contention. Each teams conference schedule will be tough to maneuver through, the top teams also have plenty of tough out of conference games which could hard their resume if they were to lose. Stanford play Notre Dame, USC, and play Alabama, UCLA play Texas A&M which could all be crucial games in terms of deciding who makes the playoffs at the end of the season.

In terms of the Heisman race the Pac-12 houses one of the frontrunners in Christian McCaffrey after the running back was a close 2nd in the voting in 2015, eventually losing out to Derrick Henry. He’ll surely be the conferences best hope again this season as he looks to make an even bigger impact for the Cardinal. There are other sleeper picks in the conference though with Josh Rosen, Myles Gaskin, Royce Freeman & Juju Smith-Schuster all periphery options before the season starts. The trick will be getting east coast voters to stay up and watch their exploits in those late Pac-12 game slots on a Saturday.

Award Predictions

Offensive POY – Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford

Defensive POY – Budda Baker, S, Washington

Coach of the Year – Chris Peterson, Washington

Top Freshman – Mique Juarez, LB, UCLA

Breakout Player – Ronald Jones, RB, USC

Pre-Season All-Conference Team

QB – Josh Rosen, UCLA

RB1 – Christian McCaffrey, Stanford

RB2 – Royce Freeman, Oregon

WR1 – Juju Smith-Schuster, USC

WR2 – Gabe Marks, Washington State

TE – Pharaoh Brown, Oregon

OT – Conor McDermott, UCLA

OG – Chris Borrayo, California

C – JJ Dielman, Utah

OG – Johnny Caspers, Stanford

OT – Zach Banner, USC

DE – Kylie Fitts, Utah

DT – Lowell Lotulelei, Utah

DT – Eddie Vanderdoes, UCLA

DE – Solomon Thomas, Stanford

LB – Cam Smith, USC

LB – Azeem Victor, Washington

LB – Salamo Fiso, Arizona State

CB – Adoree’ Jackson, USC

FS – Budda Baker, Washington

SS – Marcus Williams, Utah

CB – Sidney Jones, Washington

P – Matt Haack, Arizona State

K – Aidan Schneider, Oregon

Returner – Christian McCaffrey, Stanford

Final Standings Prediction

North

1. Stanford

2. Washington

3. Oregon

4. Washington State

5. California

6. Oregon State

South

1. UCLA

2. USC

3. Utah

4. Arizona

5. Arizona State

6. Colorado

Conference Title Game Prediction

Stanford over UCLA

Tom.

@TomSalerno_

@OnTheClock_Blog

[ontheclockblog-blog]

2016 ACC Conference Preview

Note: This week we’ll preview each of the top 5 college football conferences now that games are just over a week away. We’ll look at the top games in each conference, star players, All-Conference teams, award predictions, final standings predictions and some of the top storylines heading into the season. Today’s installment will look at the ACC.

Games to Watch

Clemson @ Auburn (Sep 3rd)

North Carolina vs. Georgia (Atlanta) (Sep 3rd)

Mississippi vs. Florida State (Orlando) (Sep 5th)

Florida State @ Louisville (Sep 17th)

Pittsburgh @ North Carolina (Sep 24th)

Louisville @ Clemson (Oct 1st)

Miami @ Notre Dame (Oct 29th)

Clemson @ Florida State (Oct 29th)

Louisville @ Houston (Nov 17th)

Florida @ Florida State (Nov 26th)

ACC Championship Game (Dec 3rd)

Star Players

Offence

Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson (Jr.)

Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State (Jr.)

Isaiah Ford, WR, Virginia Tech (Jr.)

Mike Williams, WR, Clemson (RS-Jr.)

Defence

DeMarcus Walker, DE, Florida State (Sr.)

Ben Boulware, LB, Clemson (Sr.)

Devonte Fields, LB, Louisville (RS-Sr.)

Derwin James, S, Florida State (So.)

3 Big Questions

Who will win the Clemson vs. Florida State slug fight in the Atlantic division?

Both the Tigers and Seminoles have loaded teams as usual and the battle to represent the Atlantic division in the conference championship game is sure to be fierce one. Such is the strength of these two teams that some have wondered whether both of them could make the college football playoffs this season. That would be some achievement for the ACC as a conference, but it remains a long shot at this point.

Clemson won the ACC last season and made the National Championship Game so they are naturally favoured, especially since they return star quarterback Deshaun Watson who is also a Heisman favourite. He’s also surrounded by talented skill position players with Wayne Gallman in the backfield, Jordan Leggett at tight end and a dangerous receiving trio of Hunter Renfrew, Artavis Scott & the returning Mike Williams. The Tigers offence alone could make them favourites, but they aren’t lacking on defence either with multiple prospects who could end up being high draft picks in the future.

Meanwhile in Tallahassee the Seminoles are set to start redshirt freshman Deondre Francois at quarterback, though the last time a redshirt freshman started for Florida State they won the national championship with Jameis Winston. The rest of the teams offensive weapons aren’t as substantial as the Tigers, even with Dalvin Cook being one of the best backs in the nation, but they do hold the advantage on defence where their depth is enviable. Another thing going for Florida State this season is they get to host the Tigers in late October in front of what is sure to be a raucous crowd.

Can Louisville cause an upset?

If any team other than themselves is to knock off the Tigers or Seminoles in the Atlantic this season it will surely be Louisville. While Clemson & Florida State appear to be alone at the top Louisville are the clear ‘best of the rest’ in the division and some fancy them to cause at least a scare or two for the bullies of the division.

The Cardinals will return 16 starters for the 2016 season and are set to be a very experienced team overall. The offence will be led by one of their youngest starters though with true sophomore Lamar Jackson having his first full off-season to work as the starter. If Jackson can develop in the way the Louisville coaching staff hopes then they could have a shot at some upsets.

It also doesn’t help that they have plenty of talent on their defence. Devonte Fields looked like one of the best edge players in the country to end last season, as he racked up 8.5 sacks in just his final 4 games. Linebacker Keith Kelsey & defensive tackle DeAngelo Brown also make sure that the Louisville front seven isn’t to be messed with and should be able to hold it’s own against it’s divisional rivals.

Will anyone beat North Carolina for the Coastal division?

While the Atlantic division may host the top three teams in the ACC it can only send one of them to the championship game. Whichever team makes it that far will have to face the winner from the Coastal division with the favourite being North Carolina followed by Miami, Virginia Tech & Pittsburgh. The Tar Heels went 8-0 in conference play last season before a close championship game loss to Clemson. On the other side of the coin though they will be breaking in a new starting quarterback, with Mitch Trubisky replacing Marquise Williams.

The Coastal division is one of the toughest to predict in all of college football though and nothing can be taken for granted. That’s why Mark Richt will fancy his chances of topping the division in his first year at Miami. His key to success will be unlocking the full talents of quarterback Brad Kaaya who is a potential 1st overall pick if he has an impressive enough season.

Meanwhile Pittsburgh feature the best feel-good story of the conference, and possibly of all of college football, with star running back James Conner returning from a torn ACL and also cancer. Virginia Tech avoids all of the top three teams from the Atlantic division on their schedule so have a built-in advantage over others. Duke, Georgia Tech & Virginia aren’t expected to be able to mount much of a challenge, but in the Coastal who knows.

Award Predictions

Offensive POY – Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson

Defensive POY – Devonte Fields, LB, Louisville

Coach of the Year – Dabo Swinney, Clemson

Top Freshman – Deondre Francois, QB, Florida State

Breakout Player – Josh Sweat, DE, Florida State

Pre-Season All-Conference Team

QB – Deshaun Watson, Clemson

RB1 – Dalvin Cook, Florida State

RB2 – Wayne Gallman, Clemson

WR1 – Mike Williams, Clemson

WR2 – Isaiah Ford, Virginia Tech

TE - Bucky Hodges, Virginia Tech

OT – Roderick Johnson, Florida State

OG – Dorian Johnson, Pittsburgh

C – Jay Guillermo, Clemson

OG – Caleb Peterson, North Carolina

OT – Adam Bisnowaty, Pittsburgh

DE – DeMarcus Walker, Florida State

DT – Carlos Watkins, Clemson

DT – DeAngelo Brown, Louisville

DE – Ejuan Price, Pittsburgh

LB – Ben Boulware, Clemson

LB – Devonte Fields, Louisville

LB – Keith Kelsey, Louisville

CB – Cordrea Tankersley, Clemson

FS – Quin Blanding, Virginia

SS – Derwin James, Florida State

CB – Des Lawrence, North Carolina

P – Justin Vogel, Miami

K – Michael Badgley, Miami

Returner – DeVon Edwards, Duke

Final Standings Prediction

Atlantic

1 – Clemson

2 – Florida State

3 – Louisville

4 – North Carolina State

5 – Boston College

6 – Syracuse

7 – Wake Forest

Coastal

1 – North Carolina

2 – Miami

3 – Pittsburgh

4 – Virginia Tech

5 – Duke

6 – Georgia Tech

7 – Virginia

Conference Title Game Prediction

Clemson over North Carolina

Tom.

@TomSalerno_

@OnTheClock_Blog