Just Raw

Ramblings of Africa, Rugby, Innovation and Strategy

[philipraw]

The harm of acquisitions, Posterous closes down

Not long after been acquired by Twitter, Posterous has announced that they will be deactivating their service. This is a sad move as believe Posterous had the potential to build something off their existing platform. This message has been poorly communicated to users, but that said what is done is done, so lets not waste further time on the matter 

I’ll be bosting from http://philipraw.blogspot.com/ and http://philipraw.tumblr.com/ in the future, or catch me on @philipraw on twitter

read more abou the Posterous press release here

[philipraw]

de Klerk, Confident the Pessimists are wrong about SA

Speaking in Zurich on Tuesday, former South African president FW de Klerk, noted that he was confident that all the pessimists were wrong about SA.

SA had been under some negative publicity lately given a number of social unrest incidents, and there has been no lack of doomsday advocates ready to discuss an impending doom. However for centuries foreigners have thought we must be close to an end, yet we have continued to thrive and continued to reach ever greater heights proving them wrong.

de Klerk noted a number of the strong institutions in South Africa, such as our Stock Exchange and Accounting standards which are the best in the world according to the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report, and how SA produced 30% of Africa's GDP with only 6.5% of its population. He however also noted the challenges facing government in terms of education, labour, health and crime. The upside however been a growing undertanding by government of its own failures, and willingness to address these. With a good plan and bold vision the National Development Plan, paints a rosy future for South Africa that working together we can believe in and achieve. 

de Klerk encouraged a deeper look at SA beyond the negative headlines, to recognise the amazing and enormous potential the country offered.

Read the whole speach here on politcsweb 

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Deloitte 2013 Predictions: Tech, Media & Telecom

Deloitte TMT Predictions 2013: LTE subscriber numbers to triple, ‘mobile’ advertising to grow by 50 percent, roll out of 4K HDTV

Deloitte also predicts PC usage to thrive, end of strong password-only security, existing broadcasters and distributors to dominate over-the-top services

New York, 15 January 2013 — A record one billion smartphones will be shipped in 2013, mobile advertising will get split into two categories— tablets and smartphones— and more than 90 percent of user-generated passwords will be vulnerable to hacking in a matter of seconds. This is according to the 12th edition of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited’s (DTTL) Technology, Media and Telecommunications (TMT) Predictions 2013 report released today. The TMT Predictions 2013 report also forecasts that broadcasters will continue to deliver the majority of Over- the- Top (OTT) services, and 4K televisions won’t disrupt the marketplace just yet.

“This year’s predictions cover a range of topics, from the continued dominance of personal computers (PCs) despite inferior sales relative to smart devices, the developments around Long Term Evolution (LTE), and data access, to smartphones and the vulnerability of passwords,” said Jolyon Baker, Managing Director, Global TMT Industry, DTTL. “With the splitting of ‘mobile’ advertising into separate mobile and tablet categories, advertisers should begin to consider new forms of advertising specific to smartphones, such as interactive videos or game functionality, and tablets meanwhile, may borrow content created for PCs as well as usage formerly undertaken on PCs.”

Additionally in 2013, the smartphone sector may generate $4.9 billion in revenues in 2013, while advertising on tables may generate $3.4 billion. Revenue per unit however reveals a different dynamic: smartphone display ad revenues are forecast at $7 per tablet and $0.60 per smartphone (including in-app ads).

There will also be an upsurge in momentum behind LTE, with 2013 being the first year in which LTE thrives across multiple markets. The subscriber base will triple to 200 million by year end, and those on LTE tariffs will represent about 10 percent of all service revenues. Usage of LTE will be evolutionary rather than revolutionary: the major benefits of subscribing to LTE from 3G are likely to be better performance from existing applications from e-mail to updating social networks.

Additional highlights of this year’s TMT predictions to impact the marketplace in 2013 include:

·                     “Mobile advertising” thrives, led by tablets, but smartphone display lags — “Mobile” advertising — a category including tablets, smartphones and feature phones —should grow by 50 percent to reach $9-billion globally.

·                     A billion smartphones should ship for the first time ever — Usage, however, will become increasingly varied, with a growing number of smartphones owners (about 400 million out of an installed base of 1.9 billion by year –end) rarely or never connected their devices to data.

·                     The PC is not dead: It’s about usage not units — Of total sales of PCs, tablets and smartphones in 2013, PCs will be about one fifth. However more than 80 percent of Internet traffic measured in bits will continue to be generated on traditional personal computers (desktops and laptops). And of the total time spent at home and at work on PCs, tablets and smartphones combined, more than 70 percent will be on a PC.

·                     4K kicks off — 2013 will be the year in which the television industry starts preparing in earnest for the next iteration of high definition (HD) known as 4K, which offers four times the resolution of the current highest standard HD TV. The full roll-out of 4K will take years: in 2013, 4K will be in very few living rooms. There will be no 4K broadcasts in 2013, and there is little content so far. About 20 TV sets will be available to those wishing to spend $15,000 - $25,000 on a set.

·                     Let’s get together: Crowdfunding portals bring in the bucks — Crowdfunding portals will raise $3-billion globally, a 100 percent increase over 2011.

·                     Enterprise Social Networks (ESN): Another tool, but not yet a panacea — More than 90 percent of Fortune 500 companies will have selectively or fully implemented an ESN by the end of 2013, a 70 percent increase over 2011. Of those who register, only a third will read content once a week or more and just 40 percent will make an ESN post in the average month.

·                     Bring your own computer: A tale of two interpretations — Very few additional companies will adopt a bring-your-own-computer (BYOC) policy where the employer pays for the PC. At the same time, 50 percent of Fortune 500 companies will allow employees to bring their own personally-owned and paid for computers.

·                     The looming spectrum shortage: Worse before it gets better — The demand for wireless bandwidth continues to grow causing increased spectrum exhaustion— leading mainly to slower speeds, but sometimes an inability to access networks or dropped calls or data sessions.

·                     All you can app: middle ground— Between 50 and 100 mobile operators will offer all-you-can-eat services with unlimited access to specific application— a middle ground between unrestricted all-you-can-eat tariffs and metered data charging.

Full details about the global TMT Predictions are available here:  www.deloitte.com/Predictions2013

About the DTTL TMT Predictions

The TMT Predictions are based on worldwide research supported by in-depth interviews and input from Deloitte member firm clients, Deloitte alumni, industry analysts, leading TMT executives, and thousands of Deloitte member firm TMT practitioners across its global network.

About Deloitte

Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.com/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and its member firms.

Deloitte provides audit, tax, consulting, and financial advisory services to public and private clients spanning multiple industries. With a globally connected network of member firms in more than 150 countries, Deloitte brings world-class capabilities and high-quality service to clients, delivering the insights they need to address their most complex business challenges. Deloitte has in the region of 200,000 professionals, all committed to becoming the standard of excellence.

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Jacques Kallis a magnificent South African flag bearer and global sporting Colossus

Jacques Kallis recently reached the mighty 13 000 run mark (only the 4th person ever), upon passing this milestone it is worthy to reflect upon his magnificent record:

"He is our greatest run-scorer, our greatest century-maker, has scored more 50s, won more matches, held more catches, been involved in more 200-run partnerships, achieved more batting and bowling doubles, won more series, been awarded more man-of-the-match and man-of-the-series awards, and has held more records than any other South African — indeed, very often, than any other sportsman, anywhere, ever" - G. Onselen

His achievements are not only great in a South African context, not only in a global cricketing context, but in a global sporting context. Let's sing his praises, he is a incredible South African one we should all be incredibly proud of. See great article from business day:

3 Jan 2013 BusinessDay - Jacques Kallis .... ignored for too long

Praise has been flooding in from far and wide:

3 Jan Cricket Country - Jacques Kallis arguably the greatest all rounder in the history of cricket

2 Jan Times of India - Jacques Kallis becomes 4th player to pass 13000 Test

2 Jan BBC - Jacques Kallis is fourth man to reach 13,000 Test runs

2 Jan Supersport - Kallis will go down as alltime great

15 Dec ESPN - Jacque Kallis, MVP

13 Dec MoneyControl - Jacques Kallis test cricket's unsung hero

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R100m boost for Mxit, will it pay?

South African instant messaging application Mxit future took an uncertain turn when Alan Knott Craig Jnr recently departed, First Rand founders and Mxit backers Paul Harris and GT Ferreira however seem to have strong beliefs in the company's future having invested a further R100m for further development and expansion.

The business has been undergoing some serious restructuring, stopping a number of initiatives and with 41 employees taking up volountary retrenchment. The focus will now be on user base expansion, with the stated aim of doubling its 9.6m user base in the next year. this will likely require expansion outside SA, as local user growth appears to have stagnated in the last year.

I have always been a little skeptical about Mxit's value proposition and performance, perhaps this stems from its inconsistent user numbers claims. Their website claims 50m users, their advertsing statistics claim 60m, in the past their sales agents have quoted even larger numbers to me, yet this number is registered users. In the past there was hesitation in disclosing the active proportion, in recent times they have however been far more open about this, currently claiming an active base of just under 10m. This is quite a large difference between registration and use, implying that only ~1/5 of those who have registered or tried the service it have continued to use it. Roughly 80% of those thus convinced to try the service have either stopped using because they didn't see the value or they used another service.

The clear competitor threat is other IM platforms such as Blackberry Messenger to WhatsApp. So I was initially surprised at the relatively large proportion of Mxit users who have Blackberrys, it would seem their is definite appeal in the open platform IM system, as oppossed to closed Blackberry only alternative. Looking at the device breakdown Mxit it is essentially a feature phone offering and I suspect it will struggle to make inroads into the true smart phone space. If true this would mean that either they need to make a bold play into the smartphone space or target growth in the lower segments.

Many contend that Mxit is a youth offering, but referencing their limited user demographics 75% of their base are adult users (18yrs+). From a advertiser and financial value perspective this is a good thing as suggest better monetisation potential. Despite pressure from advertisers (apparently insufficient) Mxit does not disclose income demographics. Noting the phone breakdown the suggestion may be that Mxit appeals to mid and lower end of the income demographic spectrum. This is great in that the competition is less sophisticated here but challenging in that the montesisation value of this market is far less, especially given the skewness of income distribution in an African and South African context. To meaningfully monetise the bottom end of the market substantial scale is needed, which would support the plan to focus on expansion.

Mxit certainly has potential and large potential at that, but it may get squeezed out of the market before it ever gets a chance to meaningfully monetise its offering, although technological lag in Africa may buy some time. R100m is a large investment from the the Stellenbosch faithful and as always in the tech space there is risk and uncertainty, will watch developments with interest. 

  Further reading: http://www.bdlive.co.za/business/technology/2012/12/12/mxit-gets-r100m-cash-i...

[philipraw]

Apple iTunes, now in South Africa

After years of waiting, it went live this morning, and sure to shake up the local music scene.

Rough price ranges : 

R6.99 > R8.99 per track,

R49.99 > R99.99 per album

http://www.apple.com/za/itunes/ 

[philipraw]

Google and 8ta partner to provide free internet, clients win

Google FreeZone in partnership with 8ta will be offering free access to Gmail, Google+, Google search and first page post search.

This offers the opportunity for a whole new segment of the population to access the internet, as there is certainly a band of the population who have accessability ambitions but are restrained by limited disposable income for such endevours. Google has the opportunity to grow is advertising audience, 8ta has the opportunity differentiate and improve it offering to the low mid to higher mid LSM ranges, while hopefully upselling them on other charged services. Advertising data funding models have shown limited success in other regions in the world even where base data costs where lower. It is also important to note that the target audience in this case are lower income earners which reduces their appeal and hence revenue potential to an advertiser.

The details of the 8ta/Google deal are not clear as to how the costs have been split. Telkom despite its dominance in local infrastructure would still incur expenses on the international line links especially if linking to US based Google services such as Youtube. If data policies ae strict to avoid or limit large downloads and video content the model could well work, but depends of actual data costs. Of course as neither company is likely to share details the actual financial impact will remain unclear, i would imagine though that the upsell on additional services would be be key for 8ta.

Financials aside this is a great initiative, and hats off to both businesses for helping bridge the connected divide.

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Apple too popular, Foxconn unable to keep up with demand

Citing manufacturing difficulties and complexity Foxconn has noted that it cannot manufacture enough iPhone 5's to meet market demand. Recently Apples share price has been hit over concerns that it would not be able to keep up with demand. In October Apple announced 3rd quarter profit increase to $8.2bn driven by a 58% and 26% increases in iPhone and tablet sales respectively. The possability of outsourcing components to additional suppliers has not been rejected, suggesting Apple may yet be able to lift production.

[philipraw]

Great words from Paul Harris, worth the read, #Believe in South Africa

If you haven't caught Paul Harris's (cofounder of Firstrand) letter to his aussie friend, then see it copied below. A proud ambassader to country. Well worth the read. Believe

"Hi Jeff

Hope all is well with you guys. I will drop you a line later with the family news but I would first like to respond to the email you sent me attaching an article by Clem Sunter which seemed to concern you about us here in South Africa.

You also sent me an article last year by Moletsi Mbeki warning about the danger of an an “Arab Spring” in South Africa. I often get emails like this from “concerned friends” worried about us which is sweet of you guys. Of course we are concerned. Some worrying things have happened but we have been through and survived much worse in much more volatile environments. Including the Boer War, two World Wars, Apartheid , the Rindapest, Ge Korsten and Die Antwoord !

However for as long as I can remember there have always been people who think SA has 5 years left before we go over the cliff. No change from when I was at school in the sixties. The 5 years went down to a few months at times in the eighties! But it seems the people who are the most worried live far from the cliff in places like Toronto, Auckland, London and other wet and cold places. Also from St  Ives and Rose Bay in Sydney,  Dallas and Europe and other “safe places” that are in the grips of the Global Financial Crisis, which by the way is quite scary. Many of them have survived decades of rolling “5 years left” since they left South Africa. So maybe they will be right one day!

My message is, please don’t stress about us in South Africa. We are fine. We are cool. We know we live in the most beautiful country in the world inhabited by the warm and vibrant people. There are more people here with smiles on their faces than any country I have ever been to! Young people are returning in droves with skills and a positive attitude. Collectively we bumble along and stuff many things up while letting off a hell of a lot of steam (have you heard of a chap called Julius Malema?). Yet in between South Africans do some amazing things like win a few gold medals, big golf tournaments and cricket and rugby matches. The South Africans I know get off their butts and do things to build our country rather than whinge from a position of comfort.  We actively participate in projects that improve the lot of underprivileged communities. I would not trade for anything last Saturday in a hall full of 1500 African teachers singing at the top of their voices and demonstrating their commitment to improving education in their communities.

We have our challenges and surprises. The standard deviation of our emotions are set at MAX. You are never just a “little bit happy” or a “little bit sad”. At one moment you can be “off the scale”  pissed off or frustrated or sad or worried or fearful or depressed . The next moment you “off the scale” exhilarated, or enchanted, or inspired, or humbled by a kind deed, or surprised by something beautiful . It makes life interesting and worth living. After all why do we have emotions?

We also have passionate debates about the future of SA. Helped of course by red wine which you must taste again because it is getting better every year! Clem makes a great contribution to the debate as do others like Moletsi Mbeki. Russell Loubser the ex head of the JSE made a feisty speech the other day that has whipped up emotions. Up to MAX on the emotions meter of the ANC Youth League whose campaign for nationalisation of the mines was attributed to people who have IQ’ s equal to room temperature. South African politics has always been volatile, we have opinions that could not be further apart and it evokes emotion on a massive scale. Interesting and stimulating for those that want to take it seriously but noise in the system to me. Fortunately we are rid of Apartheid that would definitely have pushed us over the cliff. These are the birth pangs of a new and unpredictable democracy. So buckle up and enjoy the ride and contribute ! That is the message I convey to South Africans.

Sad as it is, it is true that the South African diaspora has a largely negative influence on confidence in South Africa. It would not be a problem if their fretting about how long we will last before we go over the cliff was merely a reflection of their concern for us, their friends and family. The problem is that it does impact foreign investment which is important for economic growth. A person that is thinking of coming to visit or investing is often put off by listening wide eyed at the stories of people who have gapped it. As you know I own Ellerman House that hosts many foreign visitors and I have never, EVER, met anyone who has visited for the first time without being blown away by the beauty of the country and the warmth of the people. It is not for nothing that South Africa has the highest ratio of repeat visitors of all long haul destinations.

So, Jeff, how can I help you stop stressing out about us? Maybe best is that you get exposed to some articles and web sites that give a more balanced and uplifting perspective of South Africa. I have attached some links below that you may find interesting. The two websites are SA The Goods News  and The Homecoming Revolution, both have stories that will make you feel better. The article is by a young Jewish lady Martine Schaffer that I work with and admire greatly.

I will sum up my feelings about South Africa with a quote from Joanne Fedler’s book ‘When Hungry – Eat’ that Martine also quotes. Joanne emigrated to Australia in early 2000.“South Africa is a place of spirit-distorting paradox, a land with a bipolar disorder that swings you from joy to despair in the space of a heartbeat. It twists your arm behind your back and ties your sanity in a knot. It bullies you until you’ve forged your opinion on politics, crime, AIDS, the state of the roads, the economy or the politicians. It’s not for the wishy washy or the fence sitters. It demands you know who you are and what you stand for. It keeps you fit, on your toes and looking over your shoulder. It steals your purse and holds your soul ransom. As much as I was, at times, on the edge of sanity living there, I was also stimulated, driven and felt bungy-jumpingly alive. The shades of happiness and fear mottled. I knew that leaving, like chemotherapy, would kill off the best things in my life as well as the worst.”

So please don’t worry and if you get a chance put in a good word for us.

All the best Paul Harris"

    http://www.homecomingrevolution.co.za  http://www.sagoodnews.co.za/

http://www.homecomingrevolution.co.za/blog/?p=2035 

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Facebook beats analyst expectations, market reacts positively? Naivety continues...

Facebook's recently announced quarterly results, show annual revenue improving by 32%, with a big surge in mobile revenues, now making up 14% of the total. They beat analyst forecasts, showed they can make money from mobile, market response positive... 

There are a numbers of concerns that stand out from the recent announcemnt.

> Firstly it sounds great to say that mobile revenues make up 14% of the total, a great improvement, however considering Facebook with just over a billion users has ~60% using their mobile device as point of access, it would suggest that mobile ARPU is somewhat below desktop. Although Facebook may now be making some money off mobile it simply doesn't compare to desktop (which in itself was low anyway, and total desktop revenue declined by $40m). I will however concede that total average ad revenue per ad impression rose by 7%, which is positive and needed. 

> Increasing reliance on advertsing, now making up 86% of revenue from 82% before. Facebook it would appear is not succesffuly finding alternative revenue sources.

> Gaming is not be all that yet. Zynga recently layued off 5% of its staff, as it struggles to make sense of mobile. (Zynga makes up 7% of Facebooks revenues) 

> Financials are not that rosey. Annual revenue may be up 32% but profits are only up 14%, suggesting a margin decline of from ~29% to now ~25%. Worse still this profit figure ($311m) is based on non-US GAAP, when looking at a a proper GAAP figure Facebook made a loss of $59m.

My view: Sell

Based on what I would view as a simple yet conservative PEG valuation approach. Although with I feel an optomistic earnings growth expectation which assumes at the least stabilisation in current margin decline. My rough fair valuation of Facebook shares is under $10/share, this is somewhat below the current $19.50. Sell now 

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iPad Mini...To big for your pocket, too small to be meaningful

As anticipated Apple unvieled the iPad mini today. This to me is acompromise product between a iPhone and an iPad, the size makes it a compromise on both fronts and as such i don't see this been as much of a success as either. The price is simply too much especially when compared to an iPad, sure it can make calls but its too big to put your pocket. There will be a audience to which it appeals and it may serve to limit Samsung success in their midsize notepads, personally it doesn't work for me, your thoughts?

See the specs to compare http://www.apple.com/ipad/compare/

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Rumoured CellC and 8ta Merger

CellC and Telkom MNO 8ta are rumoured to be in talks for a merger. This could be a significant play in the SA telco landscape. Telkom has been a slowly dying fixed line business with 8ta not really changing the playing field significantly, Telkom does however have the Lions share of fixed line and backend data infrastructure. CellC for a long time the distant third MNO to MTN and Vodacom has never truly had the critical mass to effectievly compete. CellC has however been makign some aggressive data and voice plays. A merger between the two small players could give some mass and momentum to allow a combined entity to effectively compete with MTN and Vodacom. Although the customer profiles are similar, CellC does bring some more mobile volume to the party and Telkom access to valuable infrastructure. Remembering the early days when CellC had to ride on vodacoms network and reversal would certainly be entertaining. Time will tell if the rumours are true and its too ealry to clearly define potential market impacts, but I for one am excited, it could certainly make the party interesting.   

Read more here: http://www.bdlive.co.za/business/technology/2012/10/16/merger-for-8.ta-and-cell-c

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Vodacom launches LTE, first in SA.

South Africa deploys LTE (Long Term Evolution) ahead of England, Ireland, France, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, well okay pretty much most of Europe. Shameel Joosub (Vodacom CEO) announced the launch at the MyBroadband Conference 2012 yesterday.

LTE will substantially increase speeds, up to a theoretical maximum of 100Mbps, somewhat up from 43.2 Mbps for 3G. Of course the actual speed will no doubt be lower/ Tests at Vodacom reached 63Mbps, and as we flood the network it will  no doubt slow even more, but still faster and still exciting. If network capacity can handle the increased usage, higher speeds truly open up the possibility of a number of online features. Video consumption is one area that although showing good growth has lagged in SA, now may have potential to catch up to other markets with better fixed line infrastructure.

Initially Johannesburg, Pretoria and Durban will have LTE access, other urban areas are expected to follow later. MTN is expected to launch LTE in the next few months as well.

One restriction inhibiting substantial further broadband deployment and access is spectrum. In a few years’ time it is hoped that with SA switching to digital TV from analog which free up some of the 800Mhz spectrum. Currently Vodacom is reusing its effectively slower 1800Mhz spectrum. So when more spectrum opens up we may have the potential for greater capacity and speed

See the map below to see if you have LTE coverage

http://www.vodacom.co.za/cs/groups/public/documents/vodacom.co.za_portal_webassets/ltecoveragemap.pdf 

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iPhone 5... finally its here!!

All that waiting was not in vain its here... the iPhone 5.

"Thinnest, Lightest iPhone Ever Features All-New Aluminum Design, Stunning 4-Inch Retina Display, A6 Chip & Ultrafast Wireless" - Apple iPhone 5

It's 18% thinner (7.6mm) and 20% lighter (112grams) and twice the speed of the iPhone 4S.

The body is made from anodized aluminum, diamond chamfered edges and gorilla glass inlays. Having previously stuck with the same dimensions Apple has now boosted the display to 4 inches. However the size increase has come in height not width. This allows it to go to widescreen aspect ratios while maintaining handheld usability, unlike some of the larger Samsung devices which are a little too wide to easily scroll and gesture with one hand.

Front and rear (8Megapixel saphhire cyrstal iSight) camera are better, now with ability to take 720p high-definition video and panaroma photos (Apple showed a stunning 28megapixel panaramic example of the Golden Bridge at launch). Apprently people seem even happier with iPhone5 pictures. You be certain to capture to whole crowd with face detection of up to 10 people.

The phone will feature the latest iOS6 (unvieled earlier in the year) which will feature over 200 new features and Apples own map system (good bye Google Maps). Siri the iPhone personal assistent has become more intelligent and will even be able to tell you sports scores if you ask her nicely.

The phone features has 4G LTE and DC-HSDPA, dual band 802 and super fast 150Mbps Wifi connectivity. Battery life has improved, with Apple claiming 8hours of 3G talk time.

As expected the dock connector has changed. They calling the new connector the Lightning, which is 80% smaller than the previous connector. Slightly irritating as my previous cables and docks won't work now, but also being a 30pin connector should be able to work with a suitable adapter, guess the upgrade was inevitable at some point

Sticking with usable function over hype, Apple as usual has side stepped new gimick technologies such as NFC, wireless charging and even its own localised haptic feedback. These technologies although exciting haven't got significant market traction or penetration and don't justify the addiitonal size and expenses they add to the phone Apple reasons. Apple usually gets these calls right so although some might complain they probably right. No doubt future phones may have these features but they don't make sense yet.

Will it make sales ...  absolutely!! JPMorgan estimates that iPhone sales could add 0.5% to the US GDP in the 4th quarter. The phone will be available from 21 September in Apple's key markets with further rollout a week later to 22 additonal countries. Although this is quicker than the usual roll out schedule there is no word on an official SA release date, personally hoping for mid to late October.

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Its almost here..iPhone5

After over a year of anticpation I certainly hope that tomorrow is the big day and the launch of the iPhone 5. Considering I have been posting rumoured specifications since last year and that the rumours are seldom true anyway, lets just avoid the guess and wait to be amazed. Do I think it will live up to expectations?  Well if delaying my upgrade for over a year and going to extreme lengths to ensure I'm on the waiting list tells you anything ... I guess I do. 

Holding my breath .......... 

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Facebook slowly evolving it's mobile DNA

As Facebook audiences shift to mobile and its stock plummet in shareholder frustration, so the pressure to get mobile right grows. Facebook is taking mobile seriously and is redesigning the organization to be mobile in everything they do.

This includes rebuilding their apps from scratch in the native mobile operating system languages and closely with the likes of Apple and Google to be ready for future systems. iOS6 is expected as such to have deep integration with Facebook.

Read more about the mobile evolution at Facebook http://nyti.ms/Qv3DWe

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Super Rugby gains a King but loses its Pride

After a SARU meeting today it has been confirmed that the Kings will have place in the 2013 tournament at the expense of 1993 Super Rugby winners and 2011 Currie Cup title holder the Golden Lions.

There is no doubt that the Eastern Cape deserves more rugby development and exposure due to its large and promising player base, however its inability to even qualify last year for Currie Cup status clearly indicates that this promotion to this level is not on merit alone. Cheeky Watson has played his politically connected card well, Kevin de Klerk (Lions CEO) has not even played his, and the result would seem inevitable.

A solution to the problem is tough and it would seem SARU and its weak leadership created a problem for which no good solution exists. I fear there will be more losers than winners.

The Kings are were sold as a team to help accelerate transformation, in a region rich with promising black talent. The current team composition however is nowhere near the promise, sadly they will have to play the tough battle between regional development and immediately expected performance. History would suggest that new entrants to the tournament don't do well, the Kings alas can't afford a slow learning curve as poor performance will result in a promotion relegation game. This is a game that the Lion's B team could currently win with ease. The concern the Kings may be forced to replace short term success at the expense of long term development of regional talent which they has promised. Again there is no short cut or easy answer. We certainly wish them luck and hope they succeed at this challenging task.

Sadly SA's financial power house, region of most world cup medals and current Currie Cup champions have had to pay a unfair and expensive price to give the Kings a chance. Other than the clear loss of any prestige previously associated with the tournament, a bigger concern would be the financial earnings the Lions contributed. In regular season 2 out of the 5 of the largest TV audience games involved the Lions, not bad for a team that finished at the bottom of the log, and just goes to show their supporter strength. Given that SA contributes two thirds of total SANZAR revenue the impact could be much more severe than expected and affect more provinces in SA and Australasia as total revenues will not likely reach their true potential without Johannesburg TV wallets.

The long term impact on the Lions will be tough as they will now need to fight to keep players without Super Rugby TV or gate revenues. SARU will need to offer considerable compensation to the Lions rugby union. SA needs Ellis Park, we need the Lions and we need to keep our pride. should SARU not offer sufficient support for the Lions to maintain at a minimum their current income and equivalent local and international exposure we will have choice but to fight with our feet, my suggestion boycott support of an illegitimate tournament, and support the Lions at every Currie Cup and Vodacom Cup game.