Here In Phoenix

An eclectic collection of thoughts and visions...

[rl8rgal]

Is This a Good Sign?

Noticed today that the rate of new listings seems to be slowing down. Also noticed that there are “slightly” more primary residences going active. Could this be a sign that fewer investors are cashing in their chips? 

Dang it investors! You ran up the prices so normal folks couldn’t buy. Then it sure looked like you dumped a bunch of houses on the market to freak everybody out and cool off pricing. Don’t you think you’ve done enough? This isn’t the stock market, OK? Stop playing all these games with the American Dream.

It’s noteworthy for the doomsdayers among us, that even though the rate of new listings has increased, we are still way below the 2006 rate. Another sign of a correction vs a crash. And another sign that what is happening now is very different that those crash days. The next few months will be very telling indeed. Personally a quick little correction might be welcomed in this market so we can get back to “normal” whatever that means in real estate!

[rl8rgal]

Real Estate Reflections

There is a well-documented cycle of market emotions:

It can take months or even years to complete a cycle. 

The emotional cycle for the current market shift is occurring within weeks. Most it’s the combined effect from all the stress we have endured for the last 2 1/2 years, between the pandemic, political shenanigans, supply chain headaches, etc, that’s turbocharged the shift from euphoria to panic for a tumultuous couple of weeks. 

We lived with anxiety from March 2020 through March 2021 then shifted right into panic as a record number of sellers decided this was the time to sell. Get out while the getting’s good. The big one’s coming. I am going to live in a van down by the river. Whatever, it sure seems like that’s the theme du jour. 

In the last 3 months, we have tripled the number of active listings, growing from 5,059 in April to 15,709 today. We have never seen such a rapid change in the recorded history of Phoenix real estate. Even the shift we say between March and June in 2020 pales in comparison. The straw has broken that camel’s back and we are seeing a massive reset in the market. 

What is really extraordinary is 15,709 is still only 56% of the supply we need to service the current demand. Nevertheless, we are steaming towards a “normal’ market, something we haven’t seen in about 8 years. 

According to the well documented cycle of market emotions, we still have a way to be before we hit “bottom”. Looking at statistics, there is a sign that the “bottom” might be closer than we think. The $/sf of listings under contract is started to rise in some cities. Not across the board yet, but a notable shift to be sure. Could we are experiencing a “rip the bandaid” off more so than a correction/crash? 

[rl8rgal]

"Someone is sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago." - Warren Buffett #kindnessiscontagious #plantatree #smallstepsbigchanges (at Fraser Fields, Mesa) https://www.instagram.com/p/CHwqHU1neYx/?igshid=kzm83c7z4uj3

[rl8rgal]

Be happy, not because everything is good, but because you see the good in everything. #kindnessiscontagious #smile #choosejoy #manifestyourdestiny (at Fraser Fields, Mesa) https://www.instagram.com/p/CHu32MlnO3g/?igshid=vkc4zpqj62pl

[rl8rgal]

If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will take you there. #kindnessiscontagious #takethefirststep #choosejoy #theroadahead (at Fraser Fields, Mesa) https://www.instagram.com/p/CHrcVl-nzb7/?igshid=1rvuubf3u7x6q

[rl8rgal]

“It is not the man who has too little, but the man who craves more, that is poor.” Seneca #kindnessiscontagious #whatmattersmost #choosejoy (at Fraser Fields, Mesa) https://www.instagram.com/p/CHpFFSZHDAc/?igshid=1a61y8zhpt6pf

[rl8rgal]

I don’t have to chase extraordinary moments to find happiness —- it’s right in front of me if I’m paying attention and practicing gratitude. ~ Brene Brown. #kindnessiscontagious #gratitude #choosejoy (at Fraser Fields, Mesa) https://www.instagram.com/p/CHmhzPLHktA/?igshid=14p5punyhzwwv

[rl8rgal]

Surround yourself with people who are only going to lift you higher. #kindnessiscontagious #believeinyourself #choosejoy https://www.instagram.com/p/CHj_Nb9Hmem/?igshid=p3h83jk8jy5j

[rl8rgal]

Small acts, when multiplied by millions of people, can transform the world. ~Howard Zinn. #kindnessiscontagious #cometogether #virtualhug #choosejoy (at Fraser Fields, Mesa) https://www.instagram.com/p/CHhE-aPnoQ4/?igshid=jlbxec1tph4q

[rl8rgal]

We either make ourselves miserable or we make ourselves strong. The amount of effort is the same. ~ Carlos Castaneda (at Fraser Fields, Mesa) https://www.instagram.com/p/CHeu5FaDQS2/?igshid=1c6lauy6wy19y

[rl8rgal]

Be the reason somebody smiles today. #kindnessiscontagious #choosejoy #love #virtualhug https://www.instagram.com/p/CHb_lDGnbTm/?igshid=6j5hda1iqsh1

[rl8rgal]

Love ❤️ is the absence of judgement. #kindnessiscontagious #positivevibes #choosejoy #virtualhug🤗 (at Fraser Fields, Mesa) https://www.instagram.com/p/CHZVKNbnpVm/?igshid=qz9svkjxqyed

[rl8rgal]

Joy is a decision, a really brave one, about how you are going to respond to life. #choosejoy #kindnessiscontagious #positivevibes (at Fraser Fields, Mesa) https://www.instagram.com/p/CHXr_bIHgwC/?igshid=1nabozak3mib5

[rl8rgal]

“I alone cannot change the world, but I can cast a stone across the waters to create many ripples.” – Mother Teresa #kindnessiscontagious #spreadpositivity #choosejoy (at Fraser Fields, Mesa) https://www.instagram.com/p/CHUG6-oHDvF/?igshid=phi0ruusy7oc

[rl8rgal]

Super excited about my new listing coming up this weekend. Wowza!! #waterfront #backyardparadise https://www.instagram.com/p/CG5W-9KHJys/?igshid=z3erbb1tuanb

[rl8rgal]

Thought for the day:week/month/year...#tedlasso #waltwhitman #kindnessiscontagious https://www.instagram.com/p/CG0s2Ven-h-/?igshid=x0ip71xywmwn

[rl8rgal]

The power of the bolt cutters! #tealtorlife #mesarealtor #fullservicerealtor #whateverittakes #thebiggerthebetter (at Mesa, Arizona) https://www.instagram.com/p/CDXyY3RnjkS/?igshid=eha293f3tdkl