The concept of the robot was invented in 1920 (NPR, 2011), the robot (and more importantly the intelligent robot) was a thing of the future and not entirely practical. By the 1980s, robots were being utilized widely in manufacturing, although service industries have generally lagged behind in the use of robots.
Humans are entering a new age, an age of mechanical reproduction that is unlike anything envisioned before. The overwhelming intertwining of RAIA technologies into the fabric of society, leading to huge transformations of the ways humans live, work and do business. Most people in the future will not need to work, at least in the ways in which we continue to think about work.
Human labor has been largely replaced by machines in ways and this has been going on for decades. For example, going to a bank during the bank’s hours of operation to make a withdrawal of cash. Now, we go to machines to make cash withdrawals from the accounts and the labor for making the transaction is largely mechanized. While much work in the service industry is still based on human labor, manufacturing has is much more automated.
I will discuss the role of humans in the future economy. I will begin with a discussion of the evolution of the integration of robots into the economy. Then, we turn out attention to the economics of robotics and AI, showing how these technological changes alter the economy. Then we discuss how humans can remain competitive in the new economy, developing skills that are needed and how educational institutions will have to change to address the new economic reality.
Recent advances in robotics, artificial intelligence and automation technologies have allowed companies from various sectors of the economy to adopt RAIA in search of lower costs, faster production time, provision of consistent product quality, management of supply chain operations and others.
The advances in RAIA technologies are expected to accelerate in the future and some researchers consider the possibility that artificial intelligence might at one point surpass human intelligence.
Robot and Artificial Intelligence in different fields
In manufacturing Industrial robots
(Colestock, 2005, Cubero 2007)
In supply chain management
(Min 2010)
In Agriculture
(Driessen & Heutinck 2015)
In Autonomous vehicles
(Maurer 2016)
In Education
(Ivanov, 2016, Timms 2016)
In Journalism
(Clerwall 2014)
In Provision of Legal
(Remus & Levy, 2015)
In Trading on the Financial Markets
(Dunis 2017)
In Implementing Medical Operations
(Kaur, 2012, Parsons 2013)
Both large and small companies use chatbots to communicate and maintain their relationship with customers. (Hill, Ford & Farreras, 2015)
These brief examples reveal the overwhelming intertwining of RAIA technologies into the fabric of society, leading to huge transformations of the ways humans live, work and do business.
Concerns about Robot and Artificial Intelligence
While others seem overly optimistic and perceive technology as the ultimate utopian solution to all human problems, including the merger between humans and machines. The majority of authors, however, take a more pragmatic approach and see the opportunities that AI and robotics as an economic system would create like extended life expectancy, improved health and quality of life, more time for activities people value.
This raises justified concerns among researchers, politicians and industry representatives how people, companies, economies, governments and societies as a whole would need to adapt to the new technological, economic, social and political realities that robotics would create.
For example, in 2016 the Executive Office of the President of the USA, National Science and Technology Council and the Committee on Technology published three documents intended to prepare the US economy for the age of automation:
The National Artificial Intelligence Research and Development Strategic Plan (2016),
Preparing for The Future of Artificial Intelligence (2016)
Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and the Economy (2016).
In the same manner, in 2017 OECD published an extensive report dedicated to the implications of automation for businesses and governments (OECD, 2017), while the World Economic Forum published annual reports on the future of jobs (WEF, 2016, 2018).
The Economics of Robotics and AI
At its heart, the current robotic economy undermines the economic principle of the labour theory of value was ascribed to by such thinkers as Karl Marx, Adam Smith, and David Ricardo. Economies of scale develop, enabling the establishment of near monopolies, as penetrating markets outside of prevailing channels and networks becomes increasingly difficult for startups.
This means that economies may suffer in the future, as machines do not consume the way that humans do. Manufacturers may be producing high-quality goods at a low price per unit but the question remains who will be able to purchase the goods and services, when salaries remain relatively flat in many countries.
Staying Competitive on the Labour Market
According to the World Economic Forum (2018), the skills needed are intellectual and emotional in nature, including solving complex problems, critical thinking, coordinating with others.
Top Ten Job Skills Needed in 2020
Rank
Skill
1.
Complex Problem Solving
2.
Critical Thinking
3.
Creativity
4.
People Management
5.
Coordinating with others
6.
Emotional Intelligence
7.
Judgment and Decision Making
8.
Service Orientation
9.
Negotiation
10.
Cognitive Flexibility
The development of such skills would reasonably think to be developed by people through education, training, experience, and naturally occurring intellectual ability. The new economy will likely need a new approach to education, one that is based upon the development of human skills rather than the building of knowledge and will have to retool to consider the needs of people in the workforce who will have to pick up new skills to be relevant in a flexible and changing economy.
Directions of RAIA impacts on the labour market
The first and major impact of technologies will be the elimination of jobs via automation although there will be many jobs lost, there will also be the creation of new jobs and the changing face of other jobs. Many of the jobs we now see exist in the market will be changed a great deal with many jobs being de-skilled, re-skilled, or unskilled in terms of their tasks associated with them. There is also a geographical element to this, as well.Production may return to the Western economies, as labour costs will largely be bypassed and production may now be done in ways that lower transportation costs.Another major impact that will occur is the quality of the jobs that persist. Humans will likely continue to do some of the work that robots and computers will not yet be able to do and some of the jobs are rather surprising.Because of the disruption of advanced robotics and artificial intelligence into the production of goods and services, humans will likely have to find a niche in the world’s gig economy. Since human labour will be increasingly relegated to physical or mental tasks that humans can still perform better than machines, humans will have to hustle, doing jobs that machines cannot yet do well nor as effectively as machines.The class differences will increase, as has been the case in nearly all developed countries in recent decades, since labour will consist of skilled knowledge-based workers and less-skilled workers. Those that are less skilled will constantly run into competition with robots and artificial intelligence that will undermine the value of labour.There will be some specializations that remain difficult to replace with robots or artificial intelligence and these positions will continue to function, although there will be downward pressures upon such jobs, as the demand remains equal, the supply of labour for such jobs will decrease the returns for those working such jobs. However, those who feel secure with skills and are knowledge workers should not feel too secure, as there are technological changes that can make their labour redundant.
