Global terrorism is today's domino theory. It's just as misguided, egocentric, and resulting in the same kinds of horrible policy decisions that domino theory did.
Domino theory was Cold War dogma. Nobody questioned it for decades. It said that if one country became communist, its neighbors (or other associates) would "fall" and become communist too. Most US interventions - from Vietnam to Panama - were directly down to this doctrine. And, it was plain wrong.
The prospect of global terrorism is exactly the same. The theory goes (as you can read in any article today about ISIS in Iraq), if Iraq "falls" to ISIS, it will become a "new Afghanistan" and export terrorists around the world and ruin our way of life. Thus, we - America, in particular - has to intervene now, to prevent that inevitability.
First, this is illogical, and the failure of domino theory proves why. Second, it requires major leaps to conclusions that are far from certain. Third, it will result in the kind of interventions that created this problem in the first place - and, I say this as a biased American taxpayer - continue to waste treasure that America doesn't have.
It is illogical because we have seen time and again revolutionaries become rulers and have to focus on ruling. ISIS will have plenty of domestic distractions in the major cities of Iraq and within its own alliances and even its own ranks to immediately export terrorism. Afghanistan was a failed state for decades before 9/11/2001. Terrorism hotbeds - like any center of expertise - don't develop overnight. As communism was a failed ideology that made it hardly contagious, terrorism isn't easy to export either.
Second, the ISIS is likely to fail even without intervention. They have fierce, well armed and well resourced enemies within Iraq and Syria and in neighboring Iran. I would argue that losing "American influence" to Iran right now might be a good thing; our hands are bloody enough already. Let others step into the breach if they feel so strongly about it.
Finally, looking at everything through a counter terrorism lens is what landed the world, and America in particular, here to begin with. Thirteen years, thousands of lives, several failed states and trillions of dollars later, it is time for a new theory.
Interventions in the name of stopping global terrorism needs to be tucked away next to domino theory in the annals of strategic studies, until a new - possibly accurate, but likely not - theory moves in to take its place. Until that time, America needs to disarm substantially and get its house in order at home, letting others wear the interventionist crown of thorns.
