The Stoic Wonk

This weblog contains curious insights, occasional humor, and an attempt to make sense of it. Also, cocktails. Please note that the views presented are entirely my own, and are not those of any family, friends, church, cult, secret society, or other organization with which I may be affiliated.

[stoicwonk]

Captain Hastings: Why don't you get yourself some turned-down collars, Poirot? They're much more the thing, you know. Hercule Poirot: The thing, Hastings? You think Poirot concerns himself with mere thingness? Captain Hastings: Aah, no. Hercule Poirot: Hmm. Captain Hastings: No, I, I, I see that, Poirot. Hercule Poirot: The turned-down collar is the first symptom of decay of the grey cells!

Christie, Agatha et al. "The Murder in the Mews," 1989 TV Episode, copied from IMDB. 

[stoicwonk]

Super Duper Committee

The so-called "Super Committee" in the US Congress, composed of six republicans and six democrats, is supposed to be haggling its way towards USD 1.2 trillion in budget cuts, spread over the next ten years. For the record, that's $120 billion per year, out of an annual budget of approximately $3,450 billion per year. That's about 3% of the budget, per year - assuming that they actually manage to keep from increasing the total budget.

Just thought I'd point this out. I'm going to try to do so whenever I see numbers dishonestly printed.

[stoicwonk]

Today is the anniversary of two signal events in the History of Civilization (i.e., the history of the Anglosphere): the Battle of Agincourt, wherein some 1,000 English bowmen defeated ten times their number in men-at-arms, knights, and other yeoman, and the Charge of the Light Brigade, wherein some 700 British cavalry charged, quite literally, into the cannon's mouth. History is not without a sense of irony.

[stoicwonk]

Numeracy, Honest*

We live in an age of numbers. There is, sadly, no getting around it. Bureaucratic democracy excels at collecting numbers. Without them there is no measurement, no way to identify problems that don’t exist, and no way to demonstrate that current methods are not solving said problems.

These days, we live in an age of Really Big Numbers: billions, trillions, and, for nostalgia, millions. Most of the Press just reports these numbers as words, relying on a general sense that  some how m<b<tr. 

This is really quite dishonest. In elementary math, I was taught that you should use the lowest common denominator to compare fractions. We should do the same thing with Really Big Numbers (hat tip to XKCD for this idea).

Thus, in my posts I will try to avoid printing things like “The Congress has promised to make $10 billion in cuts to the $3.4 trillion federal budget over the next ten years,” without also printing something like “The Congress has promised to cut $10 billion over ten years of an annual budget of $3,450 billion.” If I really want to scare you, I may write something like: “The Congress has promised to cut $1 billion a year from a cumulative ten-year budget of $34,500 billion.”

*I cheated. This is a re-posting of a page called "On Numbers" under "Notions." I wanted to have a first post for the tag "Really Big Numbers."

[stoicwonk]

The Natural Course

Truly, no one should be surprised by the links in Conor Friedersdorf's latest piece on The Atlantic. Discussing the gradual expansion of the Transportation Security Administration, he points out through a few stories that Our Beloved Leaders are not interested in security or safety, but in the appearance thereof; that Our Political Masters view air travel as a privilege granted by the Federal Government; and that taken all together, the United States is effectively surrendering the "War on Terror."

I have nothing to add. Conor is spot on.

[stoicwonk]

The Real Problem...

facing America's economy is not growing competition, absurd regulation, and corrupt politicians sleeping around with corporate executives. No, the real problem is the average waistline of the average American worker. 

The Wall Street Journal blog observes:

"Just 1 in 7 U.S. workers is of normal weight without a chronic health problem, according to Gallup polling data, and it could be costing the economy more than $153 billion a year in lost productivity from increased sick days."

Gallup's numbers, the Journal indicates, could be conservative. The Milken Institute (founded by Michael Milken...yes, that Michael Milken) thinks costs from absenteeism may run as high as $1 trillion (that's $1,000 billion, see page at right: "On reporting numbers")

Being grossly overweight is a problem, sure, and your humble correspondent carries a few extra pounds. Even so, does anyone find the language in this story slightly disturbing? It's almost making the argument that, because the economy's in trouble, and We're All In This Together, being fat is unpatriotic. You are letting down your comrades if you let out your trousers.

Of course, the article sagely notes, this view could lead to employers demanding more work from their employees, which leads to stress, which can lead to over-eating and/or health problems, and even more "lost productivity."

Ah, the vicious cycle of public policy problems: they never die, they just get institutionalized.

[stoicwonk]

Opportunity Cost

A friend brought a story to my attention this morning, a heartwarming piece about people coming together to protest injustice and eat really, really well.

“We’re running a five-star restaurant down there,’’ crowed Eric Smith, 38, the ex-le Chef de Tournant at the Sheraton in Midtown, who works out of a soup kitchen in East New York, Brooklyn, churning out the meals for more than 1,000 protesters every day.

The story goes on to talk about the salmon cakes, the sheep's-milk cheese, and other high end delicacies brought in from small organic farms in and around New York state. These products, the story says, are mostly donations, as is the kitchen space the group has received from a soup kitchen in East New York.

There are two interesting principles at play here. One is opportunity cost: how else could that food have been used? Organic food is in very short supply, as it's a rather inefficient way of production. And there are, I'm sure, plenty of genuinely needy people in New York City that could probably do with a a really good meal. Sadly, the article does not mention if the farms supplying the food make other charitable donations. One can only hope.

The second principle is the idea of "spontaneous order," the emergence of organization from chaos. It is an idea refined by the Austrian economists, and put to use in most libertarian and classical liberal theory. People, left to their own, will tend to organize themselves in efficient ways. As one protester puts it “It was so exciting that right at this moment of all this anxiety about how we’re going to feed all these people, someone stepped up to help,” Squire said. “I couldn’t even believe how everything fell into place.”

Somehow, I'm not surprised.

[stoicwonk]

I Beheld A Blue Horse*

In the Revelation of John of Patmos - commonly referred to as the book of Revelation - the author describes a scroll or book bounded by seven seals, held in the hand of God (Rev. 6:1-8). As each of the first four seals is broken, the author looks and beholds a horse and rider, each a different color: white, red, black, and pale, "pallidus" in the Vulgate. To each rider is given a province in the Apocalypse - Pestilence, War, Famine, and Death, who has Hell following after.

The Horsemen have ridden, disguised as functionaries in blue. The Transportation Security Administration is, in fact, the harbinger of the Apocalypse. 

Taking the Horsemen in order, they have descended upon us to eat out our substance, deriving their wealth from the strained public treasury. Clearly, this is Pestilence, and a remarkable similarity exists between it and another pestilential description in a lesser known document (See the phrase beginning "He has erected..."). TSA was created as a part of the War on Terror, presumably to prevent any part of that war being borne by Americans living at home. As I recall, it was one of the first actions of the War on Terror, after the Invasion of Afghanistan (See: Flashman, Harry). Ever since it has been waging a low-intensity conflict against reason and common sense. Never mind that it is still more likely to die in a car on the way to the airport than from a terrorist attack.

One cannot take food or drink through a TSA checkpoint, and all such goods that one may have safely sealed in packages must also be removed and destroyed. Neither food nor water is allowed when dealing with the Riders in Blue. I cannot think of a clearer example of famine.

The connection with the Pale Horse, the Rider, and the Hell that follows after should be obvious to anyone who has flown during a holiday season. What better incentive is there to meet the Reaper than to avoid having to go through another one of those lines? Never mind that if we get rid of TSA we'll all die in fiery explosions as Terrorists light their underpants on fire.

*Author's Note: Please be advised that the Book of Revelation should not be read, much less interpreted, by amateurs. Do not try this at home. The Stoic Wonk is not responsible for any immanentizing of the Eschaton that comes from amateur interpretation.