What if Soverain and Mr. Ocean's parents were never assassinated?
Now that's an interesting question...There are so many factors at play here, it's impossible to say what would really happen. But I can say two things for sure:
1 ) The Aquarian Alliance either wouldn't exist, or it would look very different than it does now.
The Tekeetian King and Queen were very strict about staying out of Terrian affairs. They believed that Terrians were too primitive-minded to interact with cecaelia in any meaningful way, so there was nothing to gain by provoking them or trying to form an alliance. They didn't exactly hate Terrians, they just thought of them as victims of their own ignorance; like stupid, savage apes that should be left alone in the wilderness.
After their deaths, Sovereign took this mindset to an extreme. He escalated this superiority complex into a genocidal rampage against the Terrians, believing they were too stupid to govern themselves at all, and they would eventually destroy the world if they were left to their own devices. He believes that cecaelia are the only species intelligent enough to govern a functioning society, so it's the cecaelia's responsibility to govern Terrians and everyone else.
If Sovereign's parents were still alive, they wouldn't have let him escalate to that point. They would have kept his aggressive behavior in check, and probably found alternative ways to solve the pollution crisis that Terrians were causing.
In the current timeline, Sovereign tried to solve this crisis with violence, and it failed. Mr. Ocean tried to solve it with peaceful activism, and that also failed. Given their isolationist mindsets, I think their parents wouldn't have approached the Terrians at all, believing they can't control the actions of others.
Instead, they would have been proactive about changing what they actually could, by starting in their own back yard. Rather than trying to make the Terrians stop polluting, the King and Queen would have promoted research to deal with this pollution so it didn't affect Tekee. They wouldn't care what happened to other Aquarians or the Terrians themselves, their concerns lied only with themselves and their people.
So, if the Aquarian Alliance did form, Sovereign wouldn't be the one to form it. It would be some other pissed off Aquarian(s) who want the Terrians to stop polluting the sea.
2 ) Mr. Ocean never would have met Solveig. In fact, he probably never would have interacted with Terrians at all.
Mr. Ocean claims he was "a slow child", and his tribe considered him intellectually disabled. Now, if you've read the series then you know Mr. Ocean isn't stupid. He's actually brilliant, but he is really quirky, and it's clear that his people didn't understand his unique way of thinking. They mistook his uniqueness for some kind of mental defect. They did not try to understand him, they only tried forcing him to conform with everyone else and act like someone he was not. Of course he struggled to do this, so they just wrote him off as "slow-minded".
After their parents died, Sovereign started experimenting on Ocean to "cure" his disabilities, but these treatments just made him sicker and sicker, until Sovereign just kinda banished him to a cave in the wilderness because he didn't know what else to do with him.
If the King and Queen were alive, they wouldn't have let those experiments happen, and they certainly wouldn't have banished their son. Mr. Ocean's parents did not understand his quirks any more than the rest of his tribe did, but at least they had genuine love for him. His mother was especially protective of him, and though her efforts to "fix" him were misguided, her heart was in the right place. She just wanted him to be healthy and happy.
To her, that meant keeping him away from anyone who might exploit his disabilities. She certainly wouldn't have let Mr. Ocean interact with Terrians, so he never would have fixated on the Blackoak Tribe, and never would have met Solveig.
With his parents still on the throne, Sovereign probably would have become a military general at some point, or maybe the tribe's head sorcerer. The point is, he would have been too busy to play mad scientist with Ocean. I'm sure he'd still be a narcissist, but instead of fucking with his brother's head and slaughtering innocent Terrians, he would have been forced to touch grass and get a life. By the time his parents died of old age and relinquished their thrones to him, he'd be married, more mature, and more chilled out. He wouldn't have as much opportunity to stew in anger and hatred as he did in the current timeline.
As for Mr. Ocean's fate, I think it would actually be a lot more tragic. His parents feared for his safety and didn't let him leave the palace much. They knew he would be bullied and exploited by others in the outside world (which was true, and unfortunately came to pass in the original timeline...)
This sheltering would have continued for as long as they lived, well into his adulthood. They wrote him off as a simpleton and greatly underestimated what he was capable of, so they wouldn't have invested much in his education or experiences. He would have been cooped up and coddled for most of his life, never challenged or encouraged to grow. In this way, I think he would have never reached his brilliant potential at all. He would have remained dim-witted and childish until the day he died, never knowing romance or adventure or anything beyond his backyard.
Honestly I'm not sure which timeline is "better"...In the original, Sovereign is out of control and entire kingdoms are at war, but Mr. Ocean has at least made a happy life for himself. But this alternate timeline is like the exact opposite; the world has more peace, but Mr. Ocean suffers.
That's really sad to think about. :( But very interesting nonetheless!