#baye's theorem

[aurora-uwu]

Look up Baye's Theorem.

Open the Wikipedia page.

Scroll down to "interpretations".

[quietimtryingtostudy]

*rubs forehead* Okay

It just all looks like the page is screaming PET PET PET PET PET at my face. (kinky, though I'm not judging)

Good Luck for the Maths board exam, 12'thies!

[discretemathpickuplines]

[academicatheism]

How Bayes’ Rule Can Make You A Better Thinker

Having a strong opinion about an issue can make it hard to take in new information about it, or to consider other options when they're presented. Thankfully, there’s an old rule that can help us avoid this problem — and even help us make good decisions when we’re uncertain. Here’s how Bayesian Reasoning works, and why it can make you a better thinker.

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[academicatheism]

One of the most common misconceptions about history is the idea that history is our past. This misconception is understandable, since when we are taught “history” in high school or even in college the courses provide an overview and summary of different periods in humankind’s past on Earth. The historiographical method, however, which enables us to discover what happened in the past, interpret what it means, and choose how to represent it in a narrative, is often discussed only briefly or not at all. Just as science is not the same thing as nature, but the method that we use to investigate nature, history is not the same thing as the past, but rather a method that we use in the present to investigate the past.

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This is a great read.  If you want to know why I say history is the most potent weapon against Christianity (or any religion for that matter), start by reading this post by Matthew Ferguson.

Christians, if you read nothing else, read the last paragraph.  It is useful in exposing the crooked methods of apologists--and it will show you why atheists don't trust them; it will also (hopefully) teach you not to trust them.  Lies for Jesus are still lies.

[academicatheism]

Miracles and Historical Method, Richard Carrier Skepticon 5

Carrier talks about how to think critically about history generally, using miracles as an entertaining example. Builds on his talk last year on Bayes' Theorem http://freethoughtblogs.com/carrier/archives/80/, but this time it's more about method than math, and surveys a lot of real-world examples of miracles from the ancient world (pagan, Jewish and Christian). Summarizes some of what is covered in much more detail in his book. [http://astore.amazon.com/supportcarrier-20/detail/1616145595].

[academicatheism]

The Implications of the Probability Method

Recently, I discussed the Probability Method (read here).  The method, or more precisely, a step in the method has serious implications for theists.  I mentioned that Baye's Theorem can be used to test a given god hypothesis; however, Bayesian theory requires that one tests one's hypothesis against alternative hypotheses.  Most of today's theists are monotheists; thus, their analysis will consist of their one hypothesis against many others.  How many?  That would depend on their background knowledge. 

Let us assume that I am a theist that believes in one god; I would be required to test that hypothesis against all of the gods that I know.  From memory and after a few hours of sleep last night, I can easily name 20-25 other gods.  Therefore, my analysis will be my h (one god) against every other ~h (20-25 other gods).  The probability of my hypothesis being the more probable of hypotheses is already low--we know this intuitively; the odds are stacked against my hypothesis from the onset.  That is the theist's problem.  They are claiming that they are certain of their one god.  However, an honest analysis will prove otherwise--there can only be uncertainty!  Therefore, even if one is a theist, the probability method should lead one to agnosticism--whether theist or atheist matters not in this case.  Of course, the Probability Method goes beyond the analysis of an individual hypothesis.  An atheist must arrive at the percentage of certainty; that will decide whether one is a gnostic atheist or an agnostic atheist.  A theist cannot arrive at this step because their calculations end in the analysis phase.  They are simply testing their h against ~h.  Levels of certainty are inapplicable in their case because most gnostic theists will tell you that the probability of another god beside their god existing is asymptotically approaching zero; therefore, their level of certainty is entirely negligible--not to mention skewed by predilection.

[academicatheism]

Bayes Theorem: Key to the Universe, Richard Carrier Skepticon 4