South Korea’s May Exports Likely Fell as U.S. Tariffs Weigh on Trade Despite Strong Chip Demand
South Korea is expected to report its first export decline in four months, as the negative impact of U.S. tariffs begins to outweigh resilient demand for high-tech semiconductors, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
Exports from Asia’s fourth-largest economy likely dropped 2.7% year-on-year in May, based on a median forecast from 16 economists. If confirmed, it would mark the first annual decline since January.
The country's May trade figures will be released on Sunday, June 1, at 9 a.m. local time (0000 GMT), providing an early pulse on global trade momentum.
In April, South Korea surprised markets with a 3.7% increase in exports, despite a sharp 6.8% drop in shipments to the U.S.. That performance was driven by robust semiconductor sales, particularly high-end chips used in artificial intelligence.
However, economists caution that recent strength in chip exports may be temporary. “The strong semiconductor numbers could be due to front-loading of orders ahead of potential U.S. tariffs,” said Chun Kyu-yeon, economist at Hana Securities.
Data from the first 20 days of May revealed a 2.4% decline in overall exports, with exports to the U.S. plunging 14.6% and shipments to China down 7.2%, hinting at broader trade headwinds.
President Donald Trump’s administration has imposed 25% tariffs on imported automobiles and steel from South Korea and hinted at further duties on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. While a 90-day pause in U.S.-China trade tensions was agreed upon in May, key tariff deadlines in July and August still loom, injecting uncertainty into the global trade outlook.
“There are worrying signs that the export slowdown is not limited to the U.S.,” said Stephen Lee of Meritz Securities. “Falling shipments to China point to a more widespread deceleration in global demand.”
Lee expects South Korea’s exports to decline in the second quarter, extending a contraction seen in the previous quarter — the country’s first in over 18 months.
Meanwhile, imports are also forecast to have fallen by 3.1% year-on-year in May, following a 2.7% decline in April, reflecting softer domestic demand and raw material costs.
Despite the drop in trade activity, South Korea’s trade surplus is expected to remain solid at $4.61 billion, only slightly below April’s $4.88 billion.
Economists caution that the outlook remains uncertain. “It’s too early to call a turning point in the tariff landscape,” said Oh Suk-tae of Societe Generale, pointing to the unresolved deadlines that could reignite trade tensions later this summer.