Fluctuations in the weather can have a significant impact on melting Antarctic ice, and models that do not include this factor can underestimate the global impact of sea level rise, according to Penn State scientists.
Accounting for climate variability caused models to predict an additional 2.7 to 4.3 inches—7 to 11 centimeters—of sea level rise by 2100, the scientists recently reported in the journal Climate Dynamics. The models projected roughly 10.6 to 14.9 inches—27 to 38 centimeters—of sea level rise during that same period without climate variability.
"That increase alone is comparable to the amount of sea level rise we have seen over the last few decades," said Forest, who has appointments in the departments of meteorology and atmospheric science and geosciences. "Every bit adds on to the storm surge, which we expect to see during hurricanes and other severe weather events, and the results can be devastating."
A new scientific tool predicts a boost to the planet's temperature over the next five years, above and beyond what global warming will already produce.
Excerpt:
The past four years have been the four warmest ever recorded — and now, according to a new scientific forecast, the next five will also probably be “anomalously warm,” even beyond what the steady increase in global warming would produce on its own.
That could include another record warmest year, even warmer than the current record year of 2016. It could also include an increased risk of heat extremes and a major heat event somewhere in the Earth’s oceans, of the sort that have triggered recent die-offs of coral reefs across the tropics.
“What we found is that for the next five years or so, there is a high likelihood of an anomalously warm climate compared to anomalously cold,” said Florian Sevellec, a scientist at France’s National Center for Scientific Research, who co-authored the study published in Nature Communications with Sybren Drijfhout of the University of Southampton in the United Kingdom.
The Earth is warming, but this does not mean that every year is warmer than the previous one. Rather, there is an overall warming trend — meaning that each successive decade tends to be warmer than the last — but also plenty of bouncing around among individual years in how hot they get.
One key determinant of a year’s temperature is what scientists sometimes call the climate’s “internal variability,” as opposed to the contribution of human-released greenhouse gases. The new forecast for 2018 through 2022 arises from projecting how this internal or natural variability will play out.
During the so-called global warming “hiatus” during the 2000s, for instance, these internal factors, such as oscillations in the Earth’s oceans, helped keep the planet somewhat cooler than it might otherwise have been and blunted the pace of warming — launching a long-running scientific debate and 1,000 political talking points.
Now, though, these same internal factors are poised to do the opposite, says the new research (whose authors also note that their technique can successfully capture the earlier “hiatus”). And assuming that the steady rate of global warming continues, that means already rising temperatures will get an added boost.
It’s important to underscore that the result is a forecast based on probability — not a certain outcome. The study finds a 58 percent chance that the Earth’s overall temperature from 2018 through 2022 will be anomalously warm based on these factors, and a 69 percent chance that the Earth’s oceans will be.
“Global Warming” Misses the Point—This Is a Systems Problem
The term “global warming” can be misleading because it makes the problem sound simple—like the planet is just getting hotter. But that’s not what it feels like from where I live. In the Midwest, I don’t experience this as a number. I see it in the weather—storms that seem stronger, seasons that feel off, and patterns that don’t line up the way I remember.
What’s really happening is a broader…
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This research investigated spatial and seasonal variations in the rainfall and temperature in Nigeria. The study utilised the ex-post facto research design, on the existing 8 climatic zones in Nigeria. Archival data on rainfall and temperature from 1901 to 2017 used for this study were got from Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia, via Google Earth Version 7.3.2, using 5° x 5° high-resolution gridded CRUTEM 4.03. Statistical analyses of data were carried out using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Mann-Kendall tests. Results indicate that significant differences exist in: rainfall within Nigerian states as determined by ANOVA test at F (35, 4176) = 1596.76 and p = 0.000; temperature within Nigerian states as determined by ANOVA test at F (35, 4176) = 310.73 and p = 0.000; seasonal variations in rainfall within Nigerian states as determined by ANOVA test at F (11, 50532) = 7776.36 and p = 0.000; seasonal variations in temperature within Nigerian states as determined by ANOVA test at F (11, 50532) = 4575.79 and p = 0.000; trends of rainfall across Nigeria; and trends of temperature across Nigeria. While rainfall showed increasing trends, temperature trends were alternately increasing and decreasing. Rainfall and temperature vary spatially and seasonally within Nigeria. The environmental regions have their peculiar rainfall and temperature characteristics. Therefore, this study is of significant importance to agricultural production because understanding regional climatic attributes is an essential environmental part for effective agricultural productivity.
The PDO is characterized by shifts between warm (positive) and cool (negative) phases, typically lasting 20-30 years. Understanding the mechanisms behind these transitions has been a significant challenge in climate science. Traditionally, researchers have focused on factors like sea surface temperatures, wind patterns, and ocean currents as potential drivers. But recent analysis of historical…
By pushing for all the above in their own countries, parliamentarians are global influencers, signaling the way ahead. And many countries are doing just that, like Seychelles, whose parliamentarians took full advantage of IPU’s support and training to create a new national Committee on Climate Change, Islands, Blue Economy and Agriculture. Starting small, by adopting and protecting its neighbouring wetland, the Seychelles National Assembly is now implementing promises made in Glasgow at COP26.
