#climate variability

[currentclimate]

Ice melt projections may underestimate Antarctic contribution to sea level rise

Fluctuations in the weather can have a significant impact on melting Antarctic ice, and models that do not include this factor can underestimate the global impact of sea level rise, according to Penn State scientists.

Accounting for climate variability caused models to predict an additional 2.7 to 4.3 inches—7 to 11 centimeters—of sea level rise by 2100, the scientists recently reported in the journal Climate Dynamics. The models projected roughly 10.6 to 14.9 inches—27 to 38 centimeters—of sea level rise during that same period without climate variability.

"That increase alone is comparable to the amount of sea level rise we have seen over the last few decades," said Forest, who has appointments in the departments of meteorology and atmospheric science and geosciences. "Every bit adds on to the storm surge, which we expect to see during hurricanes and other severe weather events, and the results can be devastating."

[rjzimmerman]

The next five years will be ‘anomalously warm,’ scientists predict

A new scientific tool predicts a boost to the planet's temperature over the next five years, above and beyond what global warming will already produce.

Excerpt:

The past four years have been the four warmest ever recorded — and now, according to a new scientific forecast, the next five will also probably be “anomalously warm,” even beyond what the steady increase in global warming would produce on its own.

That could include another record warmest year, even warmer than the current record year of 2016. It could also include an increased risk of heat extremes and a major heat event somewhere in the Earth’s oceans, of the sort that have triggered recent die-offs of coral reefs across the tropics.

“What we found is that for the next five years or so, there is a high likelihood of an anomalously warm climate compared to anomalously cold,” said Florian Sevellec, a scientist at France’s National Center for Scientific Research, who co-authored the study published in Nature Communications with Sybren Drijfhout of the University of Southampton in the United Kingdom.

The Earth is warming, but this does not mean that every year is warmer than the previous one. Rather, there is an overall warming trend — meaning that each successive decade tends to be warmer than the last — but also plenty of bouncing around among individual years in how hot they get.

One key determinant of a year’s temperature is what scientists sometimes call the climate’s “internal variability,” as opposed to the contribution of human-released greenhouse gases. The new forecast for 2018 through 2022 arises from projecting how this internal or natural variability will play out.

During the so-called global warming “hiatus” during the 2000s, for instance, these internal factors, such as oscillations in the Earth’s oceans, helped keep the planet somewhat cooler than it might otherwise have been and blunted the pace of warming — launching a long-running scientific debate and 1,000 political talking points.

Now, though, these same internal factors are poised to do the opposite, says the new research (whose authors also note that their technique can successfully capture the earlier “hiatus”). And assuming that the steady rate of global warming continues, that means already rising temperatures will get an added boost.

It’s important to underscore that the result is a forecast based on probability — not a certain outcome. The study finds a 58 percent chance that the Earth’s overall temperature from 2018 through 2022 will be anomalously warm based on these factors, and a 69 percent chance that the Earth’s oceans will be.

[didanawisgi]

Dr. Judith Curry is Professor and former Chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology.

[researchpulse]

Germany’s Water Pump Infrastructure Advances Through Regulatory Modernisation

Germany’s water and wastewater systems are entering a new phase of technological renewal as utilities respond to ageing assets, stricter environmental standards, climate variability, and rising expectations for operational efficiency. Pumps are essential across drinking-water abstraction, treatment, distribution, sewage collection, industrial processing, flood control, and sludge management. Modern infrastructure programmes increasingly prioritise equipment that combines dependable hydraulic performance with digital monitoring and reduced lifecycle energy consumption.

According to MarkNtel Advisors, Germany’s water and wastewater pump sector was valued at approximately USD 774 million in 2025 and is projected to increase from USD 779 million in 2026 to USD 975 million by 2032. This long-term industry outlook represents a CAGR of around 3.8% during 2026–2032, supported by municipal upgrades, wastewater regulations, industrial treatment, asset replacement, and demand for efficient pumping technologies.

Extensive Wastewater Infrastructure Requires Renewal

Germany has one of Europe’s most developed wastewater systems, with around 97% of its population connected to public sewerage and wastewater treated through approximately 9,000 facilities. Maintaining this extensive network requires regular investment in pumping stations, treatment equipment, pipelines, and control systems.

The German Federal Ministry for the Environment’s wastewater treatment overview explains the important role of municipal and industrial treatment facilities. Pumps support screening, biological treatment, sludge transfer, filtration, chemical dosing, and final discharge across these installations.

Centrifugal Pumps Retain the Leading Position

Centrifugal pumps represented the leading product category in 2025 because they can efficiently move large volumes of relatively low-viscosity fluid. They are widely used in drinking-water networks, treatment plants, sewage stations, drainage infrastructure, industrial cooling, and process-water circulation.

Their relatively simple construction, broad capacity range, and compatibility with variable-frequency drives support both new projects and equipment replacement. Submersible centrifugal pumps are particularly valuable in sewage lift stations and drainage systems where machinery must operate directly within wet wells.

Micropollutants Create Advanced Treatment Needs

Germany’s wastewater sector is increasingly focused on micropollutants, including pharmaceutical residues, cosmetics, and industrial chemicals that may remain in treated water at very low concentrations. Conventional treatment stages are not always designed to remove these substances effectively.

The federal government’s wastewater policy guidance identifies micropollutants as a major future challenge. Additional treatment stages may involve activated carbon, ozone, membranes, and advanced filtration, all of which require reliable pumps for dosing, circulation, backwashing, and residual handling.

Drinking-Water Standards Influence Equipment Design

Reliable pumping is essential for maintaining pressure, treatment consistency, and water quality throughout abstraction, storage, and distribution. Mechanical failure or unstable pressure can interrupt treatment operations and increase the risk of contamination entering damaged pipelines.

The German Environment Agency’s drinking-water guidance describes the country’s regulatory framework and quality requirements. Pump materials, seals, lubricants, and components used in potable-water systems must therefore support hygienic operation and minimise contamination risks.

The European Commission’s drinking-water framework also introduces stronger risk management, leakage assessment, monitoring, and hygiene requirements. These measures encourage utilities to deploy connected pumps and sensors capable of tracking pressure, flow, and network performance.

Water Reuse Gains Greater Relevance

Although Germany generally has strong water availability, regional drought, industrial demand, and climate variability are increasing interest in treated-water reuse. Reclaimed water can support agriculture, industrial cooling, landscaping, street cleaning, and selected municipal applications.

The European Commission’s water-reuse platform describes treated wastewater as a predictable alternative supply that can reduce pressure on natural water bodies. Reuse installations require pumps throughout treatment, membrane circulation, disinfection, storage, and redistribution.

Industrial Applications Require Specialised Systems

Germany’s chemical, automotive, food-processing, pharmaceutical, steel, paper, and manufacturing industries depend on pumps for cooling, cleaning, chemical transfer, dewatering, process circulation, and effluent treatment. These applications may involve corrosive liquids, abrasive particles, high temperatures, or strict purity requirements.

Industrial users increasingly consider construction materials, sealing technology, maintenance access, and lifecycle costs when selecting equipment. Digital monitoring can identify vibration, temperature, pressure, and flow abnormalities before they result in unplanned shutdowns.

Energy Efficiency Shapes Procurement Decisions

Pumping can account for a substantial share of electricity consumption in treatment plants and industrial facilities. Oversized machinery, fixed-speed operation, worn components, and poorly configured networks can raise operating expenditure.

The International Energy Agency’s efficiency resources emphasise efficient technologies and improved operating practices as important methods for limiting energy demand. High-efficiency motors, variable-speed drives, accurate system sizing, and predictive maintenance can reduce electricity use while extending equipment life.

Germany’s pumping landscape is consequently moving toward advanced treatment, digital asset management, water reuse, and energy-conscious operation. Regulatory modernisation and infrastructure renewal will continue shaping demand for durable, application-specific systems capable of supporting reliable water services and stronger environmental performance.

[oldpagansamkc]

“Global Warming” Misses the Point—This Is a Systems Problem

The term “global warming” can be misleading because it makes the problem sound simple—like the planet is just getting hotter. But that’s not what it feels like from where I live. In the Midwest, I don’t experience this as a number. I see it in the weather—storms that seem stronger, seasons that feel off, and patterns that don’t line up the way I remember. What’s really happening is a broader…

“Global Warming” Misses the Point—This Is a Systems Problem

[presencenews]

When Ice Comes South: How the Deep South Handles Rare Winter Weather

Winter Weather in a Region Built for Heat Weather agencies report that much of the Deep South is under winter weather warnings.. As sleet and scattered snow are reported across various parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia on weather maps and reports, various state resources are sending out cautions over dangerous driving conditions and frigid temperatures. Though inclement…

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[oaresearchpaper]

This research investigated spatial and seasonal variations in the rainfall and temperature in Nigeria. The study utilised the ex-post facto research design, on the existing 8 climatic zones in Nigeria. Archival data on rainfall and temperature from 1901 to 2017 used for this study were got from Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia, via Google Earth Version 7.3.2, using 5° x 5° high-resolution gridded CRUTEM 4.03. Statistical analyses of data were carried out using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Mann-Kendall tests. Results indicate that significant differences exist in: rainfall within Nigerian states as determined by ANOVA test at F (35, 4176) = 1596.76 and p = 0.000; temperature within Nigerian states as determined by ANOVA test at F (35, 4176) = 310.73 and p = 0.000; seasonal variations in rainfall within Nigerian states as determined by ANOVA test at F (11, 50532) = 7776.36 and p = 0.000; seasonal variations in temperature within Nigerian states as determined by ANOVA test at F (11, 50532) = 4575.79 and p = 0.000; trends of rainfall across Nigeria; and trends of temperature across Nigeria. While rainfall showed increasing trends, temperature trends were alternately increasing and decreasing. Rainfall and temperature vary spatially and seasonally within Nigeria. The environmental regions have their peculiar rainfall and temperature characteristics. Therefore, this study is of significant importance to agricultural production because understanding regional climatic attributes is an essential environmental part for effective agricultural productivity.

[bytetrending]

North Pacific Climate: Understanding Your Weather

The PDO is characterized by shifts between warm (positive) and cool (negative) phases, typically lasting 20-30 years. Understanding the mechanisms behind these transitions has been a significant challenge in climate science. Traditionally, researchers have focused on factors like sea surface temperatures, wind patterns, and ocean currents as potential drivers. But recent analysis of historical…

North Pacific Climate: Understanding Your Weather