Total Solar Eclipse Weather ☀
Most of us have heard this aphorism in some form: Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.
Based on climatological records, long range predictions for conditions along the path of totality for the April 8th total solar eclipse had suggested that the Texas portion of the path would be relatively favorable while the New England portion would be unfavorable. But as it turns out, almost the opposite is true.
But as of Sunday, things don't look bright for most of the Texas portion of the path with the possible exception of the extreme northern end near Oklahoma. On the other hand, the portion of the path that goes through northern New England looks quite good for Monday afternoon.
Tomer Burg is a PhD candidate in meteorology at the University of Oklahoma. His 2021 hurricane season forecasts were superb. For example: he was way ahead of just about everybody in forecasting the effects of the remnants of Hurricane Ida on the Northeast.
So Tomer has added a section on eclipse visibility to his academic site. The page of most interest is the City Dashboard.
Go to the link below and click City Dashboard on the left.
2024 Eclipse Forecasts
At the dashboard you'll find a small map on the upper left showing the path of totality with circles indicating various locations of interest. Clicking a circle will cause maps to appear to the right which show both overall cloud cover and cloud layers broken down by cloud height.
Right now the Dallas forecast for eclipse time shows a predicted 59% overall cloud cover broken down as 24% low/28% mid/55% high cloud cover. On the other hand, Colebrook, New Hampshire's cloud forecast is: 0% overall, 0% low/0% mid/0% high cloud cover.
Cloud height is key. High clouds tend to be thin and wispy. They are less likely to interfere with eclipse viewing. Lower clouds tend to be more problematic – with the exception of the very small puffy "fair weather" clouds which tend to move quickly.
So don't be too put off by moderate percentages for high clouds as long as the percentages for lower clouds aren't very big.
Here's a non-interactive map created by Tomer. Consult the City Dashboard for more specific info.
This is predicted cloud cover. The darker the gray, the cloudier; the deeper the blue, the more cloudless.
^^^ In general: west-central and northeastern Arkansas could be the best places in the South to observe the eclipse. If you're looking for a spot in a blue state west of the Appalachians, Mount Vernon, Illinois is easy to get to with both I-57 and I-64 going through town. Cleveland and the area to its west look good. Indianapolis is also promising.
But the cloudless place to be in the US on Monday is northern New England; the Clinton County shore on the New York side of Lake Champlain may be the best place for NYC residents wanting to stay in state.
For up to date weather conditions, go to the official National Weather Service site. It's no nonsense – they aren't going to sensationalize anything nor try to sell you stuff. Just enter the location or ZIP in the upper left field.
National Weather Service
