Dear FIFA, I did the math
Total spots World Cup 2018: 32
AFC got 5, CAF got 5, CONCACAF got 3, CONMEBOL got 5, OFC got 0, and UEFA got 14 spots.
AFC got 15.6%, CAF got 15.6%, CONCACAF got 9.4%, OFC got 0%, and UEFA got 43.8% of those 32 spots. (Decimals are rounded)
Total national associations in FIFA: 223
47 from AFC, 56 from CAF, 41 from CONCACAF, 10 from CONMEBOL, 14 from OFC, and 55 from UEFA.
Only 32 can participate. Taking the number of spots given to each confederation one gets these numbers:
In AFC, 10.6% of the national associations got a spot. In CAF, 8.9% of the national associations got a spot. In CONCACAF, 7.3% of the national associations got a spot. In CONMEBOL, 50.0% of the national associations got a spot. In OFC, 0.0% of the national associations got a spot. In UEFA, 25.5% of the national associations got a spot. (Decimals are rounded)
Top 15 of the FIFA world ranking before the world cup:
Germany, Brazil, Belgium, Portugal, Argentina, Switzerland, France, Poland, Chile, Spain, Peru, Denmark, England, Uruguay, Mexico
In other words: from AFC 0 or 0.0%, from CAF 0 or 0.0%, from CONCACAF 1 or 6.7%, from CONMEBOL 5 or 33.3%, from OFC 0 or 0.0%, and from UEFA 9 or 60%
Now looking at the size of each confederation, one gets these numbers:
0 of 47 (0.0%) from the national associations of AFC are featured in the top 15. 0 of 56 (0.0%) from CAF. 1 of 41 (2.4%) from CONCACAF. 5 of 10 (50.0%) from CONMEBOL. 0 of 14 (0.0%) from OFC. 9 of 55 (16.4%) from UEFA. (Decimals are rounded)
Conclusion after comparing these numbers: It’s always unfair, no matter how one twists and turns it.
How come UEFA gets 43.8% of all available spots in the world cup?
How come 50% of all national associations from CONMEBOL get a spot when only 10.6% from AFC get one?
How come 0 teams from CAF are featured in the top 15 but CAF gets two more sports (5) than CONCACAF (3), who have 1 team featured in the top 15?
FIFA has a lot of options to work on this, here are two:
Make the confederations to have an equal amount of national associations and give them all the same number of spots. This is somewhat unfair to confederations that have a higher percentage of very successful national associations, but one has to see that only one can win anyways in the end. If one national association from a confederation with many strong opponents is not good enough to qualify but it would have qualified in a confederation with fewer strong opponents, it is not a winner. Strong opponents await in the finals anyway.
Change the amount of spots given to each confederation according to members. The way it is now, 25.5% of the national associations from UEFA get a spot but only 8.9% from CAF do. Again, this means that in confederations with few strong opponents, it will be easy for weaker teams to qualify, which might sound unfair. But again, winners have to win against everyone in the end.
Yes, these two options mean that more weaker national associations would qualify. But that way, more of the poorer (and therefore often weaker) national associations would get a chance to win and better there financial situation. Plus: one can be sure that the really good national associations will still advance to the top very quickly.