El really did go "missing" on June 13th, 1986...
...and how this connects to Mike's altered memories
First, here's a brief explanation of my main theory!
Mike is stuck in his own version of Camazotz: the Rightside Up.
In the 8 months after Season 4, the gang prepared for a big battle with Vecna. Mike was taken during that battle, on the anniversary of Will's disappearance: November 6th, 1986.
Every important plot point from Ep 1-8 was an edited version of what really happened in those 8 months. Vecna just changed the order, characters or context to suit his own narrative and keep Mike trapped in the Rightside Up. That's why Mike's real memories will be crucial to his escape in the upcoming episodes.
Evidence!
ORDER OF EVENTS: Part 1 (Reality = reversed), Part 3 (12 Episodes), Part 4 (MWTFDYD), Part 9 (Wheeler attack -> Mike's kidnapping), Part 11 (Mr Whatsit = Will)
SCENE ANALYSIS: Part 2 (Will/Robin), Part 5 (Rainbows), Part 6 (The roof talk), Part 7 ("Where's Dustin right now?"), Part 8 (El is missing), Part 10 (Byler's missed date), Part 12 (Byler saw Rovickie kiss), Part 13 (Will's painting)
What does El's poster tell us about the "real" story?
After Season 4, the following events happened...
Hawkins genuinely went into military lockdown.
On June 13th, 1986, someone was in danger*. El put her hoodie on and risked being caught by the military in order to help them.
The military spotted her, and put these posters up in order to find and capture her.
El and Hopper most likely "went missing" (went into hiding) after she was spotted on June 13th.
*I won't go fully into this part here, but I will in an upcoming analysis.
So, how can we figure ALL of these things out from one little poster? Well, I'll tell you! Here's my evidence...
The Military put these posters up, not Joyce or Hop
Compare El's poster to Will's.
They used her police mugshot!
There’s an entire scene in Season 1 where Joyce and Jonathan pick out the perfect image of Will for his missing poster, and they handwrite the poster themselves, mentioning Joyce Byers by name.
Joyce did not create this poster. El isn't a "missing child", she is wanted by the military, who absolutely have access to her police mugshot.
So, what am I saying here? The military still wants El, and that's the main reason Hawkins is in lockdown. Because they know she's there.
+ More proof that Hawkins did go into lockdown
When you call 765-303-2020, this is what it says:
Thank you for contacting the Hawkins Police Department. Due to the recent 7.4 magnitude earthquake, Hawkins is currently under lockdown to ensure the safety of our residents.
The Hawkins Emergency Task Force is working closely with Hawkins PD to track down missing persons, of which Jane Hopper is a priority. We urge you, as a responsible citizen of Hawkins, to assist us in our search to locate her.
If this missing poster wasn't real, the number wouldn't work, right? But it works, and furthermore, the message it plays mentions actual events from previous seasons. The earthquake excuse and the military blaming El for said "earthquake" are both set up in Season 4.
Because this phone number is real for us, the audience, and it references previously-established information from Season 4, we can assume this message is real too. And it just happens to mention the search for Jane Hopper and the lockdown, together.
Therefore: The military wants El, and Hawkins is in lockdown – mostly so they can capture her. The missing poster is part of the real story.
So, how does the military know El is in Hawkins?
The missing poster says this:
Last seen wearing a hooded jacket, walking alone in the vicinity of [on the sidewalk of] Hawkins High School on June 13th, 1986.
First of all – yay! This lines up with my timeline, which proposes that the illusion was based off of what happened after Season 4 (March 29th to November 6th, 1986)! If El was spotted by the military in June, this was three months after the end of Season 4. More on that later.
Second of all – they mention she was wearing a HOODED JACKET. A hoodie. This seems silly, but it is actually WEIRDLY IMPORTANT!
Eleven (to Hopper): I wore my hoodie.
When El went to save Holly, she wore her hoodie so the military wouldn't spot her. Then, when she heard Holly screaming, she WALKED ALONE IN HER HOODIE towards those screams, to save her.
(Isn't it weird that she walked towards Holly, rather than running? This is why.)
Eleven: Holly was in danger.
Hopper: Yeah, and now so are you. If those military guys haven’t already caught you on camera, now they will.
THIS is when and how the military spotted Eleven. This is an edited version of El walking alone in her hoodie, like the military's poster describes. The only confirmed change is the location; the Wheeler home vs. Hawkins High.
And, think about it. If the missing poster already existed before this scene, then... it makes zero sense for Eleven to go outside wearing the exact same item of clothing that the military has already seen her wearing. That's just asking to get captured!
But if this is actually the event that leads to El being spotted by the military... well, it makes more sense, doesn't it? She thought the hoodie would disguise her, because she hasn't been spotted in it yet.
Therefore: on June 13th, someone was in danger. El walked past Hawkins High wearing her hoodie in order to save them, but she got spotted by the military. They already thought she was in Hawkins, but now they have irrefutable camera evidence!
El and Hopper probably "went missing" (as the others repeatedly mention) after this, hiding from the military together, while avoiding contact with the others for a while to prevent them being labelled as accomplices.
Not the most groundbreaking discovery, but it's another series of events for my soon-to-be updated timeline – and I can pin down a specific date! Yay!
This suggests my theory is at least close to right, and the whole thing hasn't been 100% made-up. Key events from Episodes 1-8 really did happen – and we can pretty easily assume they did, if they were set up in previous seasons.
So, for example – El being wanted by the military, Max being in a coma and Robin and Vickie becoming a couple. These events were set up in previous seasons, and naturally progressed into Season 5. They also don't appear to have any other signs they were tampered with, either; no dream/illusion imagery, out-of-character choices, Henry hair/poses, etc.
They probably fit Vecna's story enough that he barely needed to edit them at all to make it believable.
But if events didn't fit his story, he tried to remove them in any way he could... even if it totally screwed with the natural progression of events that were set up in previous seasons.
This is important to me, because it means that if we want to figure out which parts of the story have been altered by Vecna, we can question whether they seem like a natural progression of the story.
Spotting Altered Scenes: A How-To Guide
If it progresses very naturally from previous seasons (e.g. military blames El in S4 -> military wants El in S5), it's probably real.
If it progresses somewhat naturally (e.g. military blames El in S4 -> military wants El and all the kids in S5), we can focus on the weird part (the kids) and see if there are any other signs it's been altered – or if it's actually real, just an unexpected writing choice.
If it progresses very weirdly, (e.g. military blames El in S4 -> military suddenly starts an El fanclub in S5), we can fairly safely assume it was altered, and use the other signs to figure out the real story.
Simply put: In Season 5, if there are clear setups from previous seasons with ZERO payoff, or a HIGHLY UNEXPECTED payoff, then these are the parts Vecna has most likely altered.
Hawkins going on lockdown and El being wanted by the military were clearly set up, there is additional proof they are real, and no other signs they were altered, therefore: Vecna hasn't altered these key events much. They really happened!
