In Canadian political discourse, it’s become somewhat common for the right wing to say the LPC and CPC are near-evenly matched, citing charts kind of like this one, which show first-choice preference as about even for most age groups.
The part they don’t explain (not that it’s well hidden—they just hope you don’t think about it) is that what this shows is a strong and consistent preference for the Liberals over the Conservatives, because the vast majority of people who vote for our smaller parties (the NDP, Green, and Bloc) would vote LPC if it were a vote just between those two parties. (The purple one, the PPC, is the only other right-wing party.) The Bloc isn’t always more left than right, so it depends, and I’m not saying we can count all third-part voters as would-be Liberal votes. But if Canada held a big referendum that was simply Liberal Party versus Conservative Party, the result would, by all indication, be a Liberal landslide. And this has been the cast for decades now. The Conservative Party only stands any chance at all because they consolidated the right vote, and our system still rewards being the largest plurality.
This is the hard problem of the Conservative Party of Canada: when you get down to it, they just aren’t a good reflection of Canada. They don’t represent Canadians. They just don’t, the same way the NDP or PPC don’t. The majority of Canadians, the average in Canada, want something to the left of the Conservatives. And you’re not going to solve that with memes. You can’t just sit there waiting for the Liberals to screw up and then say ‘eh? how about us?’ and expect to gain any long-term support from that. It gives you a boost every now and then, but the underlying issue is that people fundamentally don’t like what you stand for. To change this, you have to change the party. That’s why so many people have been saying the Conservatives should move on from Poilievre: not because he isn’t popular with Conservative voters (he is), but because he’s somebody who’s dug in to his own way of being, he doesn’t like to change course, he never changes his mind about anything, he says so himself.
I want our country to have a healthy opposition party that challenges and criticizes the government and provides and alternate vision or policy agenda that we could adopt if the people decide our current path is no longer working. I wish we had a Conservative Party that was more honourable and unifying, that I could actually trust in leadership as an alternative if the Liberals ever fell astray. I don’t feel that way currently with Poilievre at the helm. The vulgar, dishonest, and deeply personal ways that he attacked Trudeau (calling him a radical extremist and narcissist, a Marxist, and an extremist wacko) was unbecoming of national leadership. And the way he goes on about wanting to fight ‘wokeness’ in our institutions feels like something that simply doesn’t belong in our political culture. There are better Conservatives than him. And I fear his leadership within the Conservative Party is part of what led its other members to be so abrasive and averse to speaking to the substance of what they’re talking about at any given time.