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I Have Seen a Real Recession. Everything After That Felt Different.
I started my career in 2000. That was the year the dot-com bubble burst. Just before that, there was a wave called the Y2K problem.Everyone was learning COBOL.People were flying to the US.Opportunities were everywhere. And suddenly… it stopped. Not slowed down.Not reduced.Stopped. From 2000 to 2004, those four years were not just difficult — they were silent. Projects vanished.Hiring…
The AI bubble is 17 times the size of the dot-com frenzy — and four times the subprime bubble, analyst says
AI is not just in a bubble, but one 17 times the size of the dot-com bubble, and even four times bigger than the 2008 global real-estate bubble.
RE: Large language models: one study shows that the task-completion rate at a software company ranged from 1.5% to 34%, and even for the tasks that were completed 34%, that level of completion could not be consistently reached. Another chart, previously circulated by Apollo economist Torsten Slok based on Commerce Department data, showed the AI adoption rate at big companies now on the decline. He also showed some of his real-world tests, like asking an image maker to create a chessboard one move before white wins, which it didn’t come close to achieving.
LLMs, he argues, already are at the scaling limits. “We don’t know exactly when LLMs might hit diminishing returns hard, because we don’t have a measure of the statistical complexity of language. To find out whether we have hit a wall we have to watch the LLM developers. If they release a model that cost 10x more, likely using 20x more compute than the previous one, and it’s not much better than what’s out there, then we’ve hit a wall,” he says.
“So, in summary; you can’t create an app with commercial value as it is either generic (games etc), which won’t sell, or it is regurgitated public domain (homework), or it is subject to copyright. It’s hard to advertise effectively, LLMs cost an exponentially larger amount to train each generation, with a rapidly diminishing gain in accuracy. There’s no moat on a model, so there’s little pricing power. And the people who use LLMs the most are using them to access compute that costs the developer more to provide than their monthly subscriptions,” he says.
“The danger is not only that this pushes us into a zone 4 deflationary bust on our investment clock, but that it also makes it hard for the Fed and the Trump administration to stimulate the economy out of it. This means a much longer effort at reflation, a bit like what we saw in the early 1990s, after the S&L crisis, and likely special measures as well, as the Trump administration seeks to devalue the US$ in an effort to onshore jobs,” he says.
Conclusion: the economy is already at stall speed and will fall into recession as wealth effects plateau, then reverse, just as they did in the dot-com bubble in 2001.
Crypto-bubble
A 2000-es Dotcom-lufi és a 2008-as gazdasági válság után úgy kell ez, mint a szar a zsebbe. Szabályozatlan kriptoderivatívák és állami felelősségvállalás, ha az amerikai demokrácia nem lenne rohadóban, akkor ez tényleg bebaszhat, hogy pár tucat szociopata elmondhassa, megbaszták a rendszert. Végülis, mi baj lehet belőle.
Un día como hoy (7 de noviembre) en la tecnología
El 7 de noviembre de 2000 el sitio web Pets.com cierra operaciones debido al colapso de la burbuja .com. la compañía había acrecentado su reconocimiento de marca a través de campañas de marketing pero debido a la mala planeación financiera y de negocios se fue a la quiebra. Asi como ésta empresa miles se fueron a la bancarrota alcanzando el pico más alto en el año 2000. Solo las más organizadas sobreviviron. #retrocomputingmx #dotcombubble
Nasdaq giù! Attesa FED per JP Morgan rischio 'dotcom bubble'
Wall Street: Dow in rialzo, Nasdaq in calo. Aspettative per la Fed e AMD, mentre JP Morgan avverte di possibili rischi simili alla “dotcom bubble”. Il panorama dei mercati statunitensi è contrastante martedì, con il Dow Jones registrando un modesto aumento mentre il Nasdaq mostra una leggera flessione in seguito ai dati sulle offerte di lavoro. Gli investitori, nel frattempo, sono in attesa…
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Internet Detritus.
Back in 1996 I was driving to work in the Clearwater, Florida area and saw a billboard to Brainbuzz.com, now viewable only through the Wayback Machine. I joined, and I ended up writing for them. Not around anymore. They became CramSession.com, where I continued writing for them. I had roughly 100 articles I wrote for them about software engineering and C++ which are just… gone. Granted, that was…
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Jack Ma’s Ant Fuels tech IPO frenzy not seen since dotcom bubble
Jack Ma’s Ant Fuels tech IPO frenzy not seen since dotcom bubble
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Ant Group’s potentially record-sized initial public offering could propel technology capital-raising in 2020 past the dizzying heights of the dotcom bubble, an extraordinary showing in a pandemic-stricken year fraught with geopolitical uncertainty.
Jack Ma’s Chinese financial titan aims to raise at least $30 billion in Hong Kong and Shanghai in October, which could push global first-time…
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A Qualcomm az a chipgyártó, amely a 2000-es technológiai lufi egyik sztárpapírja volt, nőttek a bevétel és profit sorai, de hát az egy év al
