Gilbert Burns vs. Jorge Masvidal (Preview and Betting Guide)
This Saturday April 8th Jorge Masvidal will meet Gilbert Burns in a screamer of a Welterweight matchup in south Florida. Contrary to Masvidal's recent encounters, there's no real beef, not a ton of trash talk, and both competitors seem to be focusing on sharpening their respective swords, to come into this UFC 287 Co-Main Event as ready as possible. Masvidal has tried to poke at Gilbert, maybe trying to add fuel to his own fire, or pull Gilbert into a more emotional war of words before the fight, forcing him to maybe misplace his focus, but Jorge has done so, unsuccessfully . Gilbert Burns, who I will say, is one of my favorite fighters in the promotion, has maintained his calm, cool persona, and reittirated, like in many fights before, that the best talking is done in the cage. Which makes for an exhilirating Co-Main Event clash, that both fighters must win.
In this same Welterweight division, in London, less than a month ago, Leon Edwards defeated Kamaru Usman for the second time. Possibly ending Usman's reign over the division for good. And I don't know about you, but for me, it's always interesting to think of fighters sitting at home, watching other fighters fight, and I have no doubt both Jorge "Gamebread" Masvidal, and Gilbert "Durinho" Burns were glued to their respective screens, in full England kits, singing "God Save The Queen" at the edge of their vocal registers. Why? Because Masvidal, who is coming off 3 losses, two to the ex-champion Kamaru Usman (meaning that as long as Kamaru has the belt, Jorge is peaking at a PPV Co-Main, or a Fight Night Main Event in any subsequent fight), and Gilbert Burns, who's knockout loss to Kamaru in 2021 still meant he had to knockoff 2 or 3 more contenders to warrant a rematch, were given new life when Usman relinquished his old friend, the belt. So it's safe to say, they were both cheering for Edwards. Interestingly enough, in a English UFC event, when Leon was a lesser known contender, and Masvidal was finished putting out the flame that was Darren Till, they got into a backstage altercation, with the accepted rumour being that Jorge gave Leon a 2 piece and a soda (a couple slaps to the face). In the following weeks arguing ensued, a fight got close to being actualized, but never happened, and here we are. Burns who's coming off impressive wins against "Wonderboy" Stephen Thompson, and Neil Magny, is a maximum, 2 fights away from the title, and due to their history, and the size of his stardom, an impressive win on Saturday can cattapult Masvidal into title contention, giving him a crack at the belt by the end of the year.
So with all that being said, is Masvidal due for another highlight? Pulling another cat out of the bag, like he has done so many times in his 50 fight career. Or is Burns going to take him down, submit him, and get on 95 North as fast as he can, to miss the event traffic? Neither. Burns is going to level change, defend, fight smart, and win 2, maybe 3 rounds, as Masvidal looks to strike, scramble, and punish Burns in every interaction. He will put on a valiant display of toughness, and capability, but will eventually be outclassed by the BJJ black belt, only for them to both find out neither of them are fighting for the title anytime soon.
If I was a gambler, not just a casual sports bettor, but a guy who fights the man, and gets what's meant for him, I'd bet Burns by split decision at +900. I know it's a very specific scenario. You'd have to cheer for Masvidal for 5 to 10 minutes, hope he was in a friendly enough environment to sway a judge to give a win in a fight he most likely lost, and you'd have to hope Burns did enough to put it out of reach, without absolutely torching Masvidal. Seems plausible. I would venture to say, more than plausible, likely. Even though Masvidal is tough, as Dan Hardy says "Masvidal's great at surviving". This, for sure won't be an easy fight for Gilbert, Jorge will scramble, post his arm, and make himself very hard to get taken down, and controlled, but Burns will outwill him, and outclass him, reminding Jorge that there are levels. Jorge is going to be in Miami, in front of his home crowd, making Gilbert work for every inch, I don't think it's crazy to think atleast one judge will score it his way. At +900, this is my sleeper.
If I was cold, sharp, and calculated, and I wanted to make some cash, while having a personal reason to watch this fight, I would bet the fight to go the distance at +125. Gilbert rarely gets finished, and Jorge doesn't really either. Both guys have potential stoppages in their respectives arsenal's, but neither are destroyers. I think they hit eachother, Gilbert grapples, Jorge wrestles, and it goes for a hard fought 15 minutes. Take this.
And last, but certainly not least, my lock is the Over 1.5 rounds at -175. I know it's almost 2-1 but I this is almost too low, the odds should be worse. Barring an Askren-like knockout from Jorge, or Gilbert doing his best Usman impression, and landing that haymaker from hell in the early in the second, it goes the distance. It's going to be a lot of work, a lot of grappling, and maybe a finish on a worn out opponent. Both of these guys are used to going 5 rounds, and in this 3 round fight, as hard as they can talk, they both wanna win, and can't afford a silly mistake like the one they both made against Kamaru. Watch this fight go 3, while you regret not having taken this layup of a pick.
See, I said it and I did it, I found a reason to consume all this MMA content. Due to these countless hours of film study, and my self procclaimed mastery of all things 'fights I am interested in' you should really take my word for it, and put some of your real life dollars on this matchup. Honestly though, take my opinions for what they are, opinions. I care about the sport, and look to understand before I speak, but nobody knows, and if you think Jorge is going to win, take him at +750 to win by decision. When it's all said and done we all have to answer for our opinions, and i'm not sure why, but I put mine in writing. Thanks for reading.
-Freehoneyy
