lucasfights

lucasfights is a combat sports blog, that covers all sorts of fight topics in an intriguing, easy to understand way.

[lucasfights]

Enigma

H​ow many people successfully change their trajectory? How many people wake up one day, see the path they're being led down, and shift? Honestly, I don't have an exact number, but my guess, is not many; Why do we, as humans, subject ourselves to these narrow paths society tries to guide us down? Society, in desperate need of control, and us, scared to stand out, be different, and forge our own paths.

C​harles Oliveira is now one of the greatest fighters of all-time, but it didn't start that way.

I​t started in 1989, when Charles was a small baby, born to illiterate parents. His family lived in poverty, and at the age of 7 Charles was diagnosed with a rheumatic fever, and heart murmurs. The story goes that he couldn't be released from the hospital for months, and his mom would leave the hospital only for work, going to sleep, and waking up at his bedside.

When Charles was 12, and after a slow recovery, a neighbor took him to a Jiu-Jitsu class and Charles fell in love. Charles is grateful to this man to this day, but unfortunately he wasn't able to see Charles in his final form. Only two years after starting Charles on his life quest, he was killed in the crossfire of a shootout between a gang, and the police.

C​harles grieved, but continued, making his way to the premier fight promotion in the world, the UFC. Aged only 21, Charles was a fiery prospect, and UFC diehards were keen to see what this young Brazilian could accomplish.

C​harles' fight results were as follows : W W L D L W W L L W W W L W L L W L

I​t's now 2018, Charles is in his late 20s, he's fought in two divisions, and every fight the UFC has scheduled to put him over, he's lost. Charles Oliveira was looking at a career as a gatekeeper, at best. Then something magical happened. Charles went on an 8 fight win-streak, catapulting himself into the Lightweight Division's upper echelon, and just 3 years later he was fighting for a title.

How does a guy with 18 fights, and a near 60% win rate, turn his life around, and become a dominant lightweight? And how does a guy destined for mediocrity find a way to reach the top? He reshapes his identity.

Y​our destiny is determined by your subconscious. Our innermost thoughts permeate our lives whether we want them to, or not. For you to change the trajectory of your life you must reallign how you view yourself, and through that, the world. Charles stopped seeing himself as just another fighter, someone not worthy of the crown. He changed his habits, his thought patterns, and most importantly his team saw the champion in him before he did. The encouragement, and the motivation he got from his coaches and teammates, was priceless to his journey. As he compiled hours in the gym, and wins inside the octagon, he started to believe in himself, and that became the difference.

It's now M​ay 15th 2021, Charles Oliveira gets knocked down in the first round, survives the onslaught, comes back in the second, and knocks out Michael Chandler, to become the Undisputed Lightweight Champion of the world, and the rest my friends, is history.

[lucasfights]

Sterling vs Cejudo :) (How to Bet, How to Watch)

O​nce upon a time there was a man, a victorious man, who rarely lost. Some claimed he was the greatest, others dubbed him overrated, but gold is gold, and his resume speaks for itself. Henry Cejudo is an Olympic Gold Medalist, and a two division UFC Champion, who's resume is littered with a who's who of world-class talent. With a win over 'Mighty Mouse' Demetrious Johnson, a TKO of Tj Dillashaw, a victory over Marlon Moraes, and a dismantling of Bantamweight G.O.A.T Dominick Cruz, he retired. With two belts, and the feeling of a job well done. In the meantime..

P​eter 'No Mercy' Yan beat Jose Aldo for the vacated belt, while Aljamain Sterling beat Cory Sandhagen in a #1 Contender's match, which set up a paradigm shifting encounter between Yan and Sterling in an empty Jacksonville arena. What then ensued is one of the most infamous moments in UFC history.

T​he bell rings, Sterling comes out strong, mixing up his attacks, confusing Yan, and dictating the pace. Yan patient, counterpunches, knocks down Sterling, and maintains his composure in a round that did not start his way. Sterling, maybe due to nerves, starts to tire out, Yan smells blood. Yan begins to proggressively dismantle Sterling, as Sterling gets more and more and tired, and Yan more and more emboldened. The 4th round starts, and the rest of the fight seems like a mere formality, until.. Sterling is grounded, with his knees on the floor, and Yan throws a variation of a soccer kick, with his knee, and nails Aljamain in the head, which is illegal. Sterling, already gassed, and losing, rolls around, clearly not wanting to return to the fight, and after a couple minutes, and a bit of showmanship on Sterling's part, the fight is called. Aljamain Sterling is the UFC Bantamweight Champion, winning by DQ. Mad.

T​he time come's for this wrong to be righted in the universe, Yan get's a rematch, and opens as a -450 favorite. Aljamain comes out, as the Champion, and fights a much smarter, more composed fight. R1 was contested, but Sterling clearly won rounds 2, and 3, and Yan won 4, and 5. The judges give the controversial decision to the champion, now 2-0 against his Russian nemasis, and still the UFC Bantamweight Champ. Aljo then gets a test against Dillashaw, who comes in with a hurt shoulder, he dispatches him in two rounds, and still relatively unproven as a Champion gets the biggest test of his career, the career winner Henry Cejudo.

S​o what happens? Does Cejudo come off a 3 year layoff, and smoke this young champion, who seems to get better everytime he fight? Yes, early ,and here are some picks.

M​y lock is 'Cejudo inside the distance at -125' for a couple reasons. If the fight goes the distance it's a push (your money is returned), regardless of who wins. Aljo isn't known to stop people, he has, what we in MMA call, pillow hands, and if he were to stop Cejudo, the only way he has stopped people reliably has been by rear-naked choke, and there is no chance he takes Henry's back. If Aljo wins, it's because of youth and athletiscm, and it's in a decision. When Henry wins, it's inside the distance, by TKO.

H​enry has stopped Marlon Moraes, TJ Dillashaw, and Dominick Cruz, all in his last 3 fights, and all in the first 2 rounds. Aljo is argueably the most aggressive of the bunch, and is going to look to put a pace on Cejudo, Cejudo is better everywhere, he'll pop him, stuff a takedown, chop his legs, and pit him out. 'Cejudo in 1,2, or 3' is +450, take it and run my friends.

L​ast but not least is my big money one, 'Cejudo by TKO in R3' at +1600. If I had to choose a specific scenario to happen, it would be this. Aljo is learning, I don't think he's going to run at Cejudo. Cejudo does a nice job of controlling the center of the octagon, he's most likely going to dictate the pace of the fight. Aljo's awkwardness is where he's going to try to level the playing field, but it won't be enough. Cejudo's going to come in, chop the legs, tire him out, and make him panic. I see Aljo starting to frustrate at the end of the second, and Cejudo catching him towards the beginning, or middle of the third. Cejudo by TKO in the 3rd, make some money my friends.

T​his card is stacked though, and although I don't think any of these other fights need that comprehensive of a breakdown, there are some picks I really like. Jessica Andrade to win at -180 is a good price for one of the best girls in the world. Andrade is a former World Champion, and doesn't look any slower, she should win this one pretty easily, and Gilbert Burns to win at -145. Belal is good, but watch the Leon fight, there are levels, and as good as he is, he isn't great. Burns is, and he's going to make a statement in this fight, take it and run my people, take it and run.

-​Freehoneyy

[lucasfights]

Tank Davis vs King Ryan (Prediction + Betting Guide)

Gervonta "Tank" Davis will go down in history as an all-time great boxer. "King" Ryan Garcia will go down in history as an all-time great, and tonight we get to see them both, in there primes, face off in Vegas. To prep, I spent hours watching fights, listening to people's predictions, their reasons, and looking at numbers, and I think i'm now as confident as i'll ever be to predict the outcome. At the end of the day all the talk is talk, and the fighters have to go in there and handle business, but barring any backfooted KO's, or doctor stoppages, I think Tank wins a decision. I think it'll be a cracker, with multiple 10-8 rounds, but that's my finish.

R​egardless of who you think comes out victorious, I have a couple bets you can place to make some money.

T​he first is 'Gervonta Davis 75+ Punches Landed' at -155. Davis landed 74 against Isaac Cruz by the 8th, 99 in an 8 rounder against Hector Garcia, and 97 in 5 against Santa Cruz. I think this fight most closely resembles the Santa Cruz fight, and I think the bad blood forces Tank to throw a bit more. Ryan has a relatively conventional style, unlike Rolly Romero, who Tank took some time to figure out. So I think Tank starts the first two rounds a bit slow, but starts picking up the pace earlier then in previous fights, and if the fight goes to a decision, this bet is almost guaranteed to hit.

C​onsidering the fact that I dont think either of these guys is going home early, I would also take the 'O 7.5 Rounds' also at -155. Tank gets dazed, but never stopped, and Tank usually stops people in the later stages of the fight. I can see a world where someone gets KO'd, or counted out, but not before the 8th, and not with this much on the line. In Tank's last fight, he went 8 with Hector Garcia, in the fight before he went 12 with a short notice, Pitbull Cruz. This fight goes 12 if not for a nasty Garcia body shot, or perfectly timed Tank Davis uppercut.

W​ith that being said, I still have a couple bets with better odds, that i'm on the fence about, but that are worth a look. The first is 'Garcia scores a knockdown' at +290. Davis gets dazed every fight, he's a slow starter, and he lets his opponent take the first couple rounds. Although I think he starts quicker, Garcia's going to do a bit more damage then Davis's last opponents. I think he drops Tank somewhere in the middle rounds. I also think Gervonta wins though, so 'Davis To Get Knocked Down And Win' at +650 is also attractive. This is certainly going to be a war, so the last bet I like is 'Both Fighters To Get Knocked Down' at +750. Davis drops Garcia, Garcia drops Davis, and we have an all-time classic fight, where the older more experienced fighter pulls it out. Bet responsibly.

-​FreeHoneyy

[lucasfights]

Sergei Pavlovich vs Curtis Blaydes (Preview + Betting Guide)

E​very division has about, 3, or 4 guys, that float around The Champion. They're either one win away from a title shot, or they're sitting and waiting for The Champ to make a move. In the Welterweight division it's Gilbert Burns, Kamaru Usman, Colby Covington, and until last week Jorge "Gamebread" Masvidal, with Shavkat Rahkmonov, and Belal Muhammad looking in from the outside; one of them gets the shot, the other two fight eachother, and everyone else looks to make a statementin the cage, to cut a promo, hoping to get into this elite group. The Heavyweights are no different.

Last year it was Francis, Stipe, Gane, and Lewis at the top. Since then, Stipe has taken some time off, Francis left the promotion, vacating the belt, Gane lost two title fights, and Jon Jones entered the picture. Jon Jones, being who he is, got an immediate title shot, and put the whole division on notice. The man he beat, Cyril Gane retook his place as the Heavyweight division's Max Holloway. And Father Time finally knocked on Derrick Lewis's door in the form of a 6'4 Russian fighter named Sergei Pavlovich. Sergei is the scariest heavyweight we've seen since Francis, sparking everyone that steps in the cage with him (losing once to a veteran Overeem, in his first UFC fight). Curtis Blaydes, similar to Belal Muhammad, is, and has been, buzzing for a little while now. He beats good fighters, then loses to the cream of the crop, but always comes back against up and comers, and makes a run at the title. Blaydes, on a 3 fight win streak, is now 1 fight away from making a serious case for a title shot, and standing in his way is argueably his toughest test to date.

So d​oes Curtis Blaydes get it done? Does he expose Pavlovich's gas tank? Wrestle him, drag him into deep waters, and beat another big Russian? No, Sergei knocks him out in the second round, then gets a fight with Cyril, for a shot at the title.

G​uys, make no mistake, just because you haven't heard of him, doesn't make this guy any less of a monster. The UFC has this weird habit of only building up their top guys, and leaving everyone else to fend for scraps. And maybe, due to it's giant roster, and enormous reach, they have the ability to not only let a guy middle in obscurity, but eventually build him up in two fights, but Sergei is a freak ladies and gentleman. Curtis Blaydes is a tough matchup, and with notable finishes against Derrick Lewis, and Tai Tuivasa, Sergei is one good win away from getting that UFC push. A bonafide winner, with bricks in his fists, Sergei gets it done, and due to the fact that most bettors have no idea what they're talking about Sergei is +140 to win the fight, take it, and thank me later.

A​nother good bet, with solid odds, is the 'Under 0.5 Round', let me explain. Vegas has the 'Under 1.5 Rounds' at -145, meaning they expect the fight to end by the early second round. Sergei and Balydes round 1 finishes are their likeliest paths to victory at +325, and +250 respectively, so almost everything is pointing to a very early stoppage. All of Sergei's fights in the UFC have ended in the first round, he's sharp, strong, and I expect him to understand the problem he's facing, and know how to solve it. And on the off chance that Blaydes takes him down, and ground and pound finishes him early, you still cash. Good bet, if you want higher odds on something.

M​Y BET, is 'Pavlovich in Round 2' at +950. Vegas has 'Yes (Fight Completes 1 Full Round)' at -155, and 'Yes (Fight Completes 2 Full Rounds)' at +155, so the oddsmakers are expecting it to get out of the first, but not the second. Blaydes has done his homework, he wont come out to trade with Pavlovich early, and contrary to popular belief, I don't think Sergei gasses out like everyone expects him to. I can see a 2nd, or even 3rd round finsh, but based on the odds, and the likelihood of it being sooner, rather than later, i'm taking Sergei Pavlovich in the 2nd round. Let me also remind you that after fighting a good 1st Round against Derrick Lewis, Blaydes got knocked out shooting for a takedown in Round 2. Why would expect a more favorable outcome for the wrestler, if he's facing a much man?

I​f after reading all that, you're still on the Blaydes train, firstly you have to improve your reading comprehension skills.. But honestly, all jokes aside there is a universe in which Blaydes wins, and it's not pretty. If he wins it's gonna be long, and it's gonna be tedious, but he gets it done, and for those people, in that alternate, perverted universe, they should take 'Blaydes by decision' at +800. He wrestles Pav, tires him out, and takes the power out of his shots, forcing the Russian giant to go all 5 rounds, and most likely, if it goes 5 rounds, Blaydes wins. Thanks for reading.

-​FreeHoneyy

[lucasfights]

Max vs. Another Contender (preview + betting guide)

F​uuuuuuuck, what a fight! Usually I know, and am confident going into these betting guides, but this one my friends, is a fight. Max Holloway, who is argueably the greatest Featherweight of all time, feasts on contenders. Yair, Kattar, Ortega. It's like there's Volk, then Max.. a huge border wall, and everyone else. Arnold Allen, at first glance, seems like he's in the same group as everyone else. The next guy who can't solve the Max puzzle. But as many of you already know, or will soon find out, the first glance is usually deceiving. Arnold Allen is a fucking beast. Does he have any great wins? Not really. How did he earn this shot at a #1 contender spot? A good decision win over Sadiq Yusuf, (which in my opinion is his best win) and wins over Calvin Kattar (doctor stoppage), and Dan Hooker (who should never be allowed to cut to Featherweight ever again). So why is this fight so tough to call? The kid's young, he looks better everytime he fights, he's well-rounded, he has power, and most importantly his head coach is my guy, Firas Zahabi. Soooo, will Arnold Allen solve the Max puzzle? I don't know, but I think he'll get as close as anyone ever has.

M​y prediction, Max Holloway in the 4th, but fuck it's gonna be a banger! Let's get into some bets.

T​he closest thing we're getting to a lock for a good price is 'Max Holloway + O 2.5 Rounds' at -110. Max Holloway will not stop Arnold Allen before the 3rd Round, Allen is tough, and durable, and Max has been infamously called pillow hands. Can he catch him? Yes, is it likely? No. I think Max finishes him, but not by lightning bolt. I think Max boxes Allen's face off, shrugs off a couple takedown attempts, gets Allen really tired, and puts him to bed late. If Max stops him late, or wins a decision, we cash, so this is my favorite bet of the night.

N​ext we have the fight going to a decision at -125. I think this is a great bet. My heart says Max stops him, but Max broke the record for significant strikes in the Kattar fight, and couldn't stop him. Conventional wisdom says if Max wins, it's in a decision. With this bet you also get an inspired Allen, wrestling, striking, outworking the older Max Holloway (who also doesn't get finished), and winning this war. At -125 it's almost even money, and it's most likely the way this fight is going to end.

I​f you think Allen wins, he has two routes to victory. Allen can outwork Holloway (in the former's first ever 5 round fight), go the distance, and win a decision (not extremely likely), or Allen can use his power, and striking ability to find Max's chin early, and get him out of there. Max rarely fights guys bigger than him, and Allen IS BIGGER than him. He's strong, and he'll be hungry, so if you like Allen take him at +375 to win inside the distance. Great odds for something that isn't too distant of a possibility.

A​nd last, but hopefully not least, my pick. If you want crazy odds, for a specific scenario, look no further then 'Max Holloway by TKO/KO or DQ in Round 4' at a whopping +1800. 10$ gets you 180$. So if Max lasts the first couple rounds, tires out Allen, and turns it on late, as Allen is fading this could hit. If I was a gambler, and didn't want a safe one, this is the bet i'd take. Way more likely then the odds are saying, so take advantage.

G​uys, regardless of the outcome this is going to be a great fight, if Allen is outclassed, he'll hang in there and make it a war. If Max finally meets his match, we'll see that dawg come out of him, making it a sluggfest. Any path this fight takes is going to be exciting, so bet responsibly, read the article twice, and enjoy the fight!

-​Freehoneyy

[lucasfights]

What’s next for the stars of UFC 287?

Our 3 protagonists for this story are, Alex P​erreira, Israel Adesanya, and Gilbert Burns. With so many moving parts after this weekend's PPV, we're going to go one by one, breakdown a likely scenario, a plan b, and a more far fetched route, for each guy. I'll give you my opinion on what each route signifies, what each fighter should aim for, and you tell me in the comments what I missed, and where I was wrong. Deal? Deal.

A​lex 'Poatan' Perreira, the now former UFC Middleweight Champ (sad face). 205lbs? Izzy 3? Let's dive in. It's February 8th, 2020 Jon Jones is fighting in the main event of UFC 247. The fight goes 5 rounds, and by the time the final bell rings, the challenger is about as confident as i've ever seen a man after an encounter with Jones. Jones steals a decision due to his extreme starpower, and champion status but Dominick Reyes gave him all that he could handle that night. Matching Jon Jones in size, and speed, keeping Jon on the outside, and excluding external factors winning a very close decision. 2 years later Reyes meets Alex Perreira, who is set to take on Middleweight Champ, Israel Adesanya. Below is a photo evidence of that meeting.

T​his picture set the MMA world on fire! Reyes on the left is in the division above Perreira, and is not small for that division. While Jon Jones the man he fought as an equal, is now the Heavyweight Champion. Dana said it, Izzy said it, and Perreira in the past has said it, he's gotta move up. If he goes up a division he'll still be massive, he'll have an easier path to the title (Jiri Prochazka, and Jamahl Hill), and he sheds the massive weight cut he undergoes every time. That's plan A.

I​f Perreira decides to stay at 185 their are 2 fights for him, and 1 that makes sense. Let's start with the latter. The dumb fight is Khamzat Chimaev, and for a time the scariest man in the promotion. We haven't seen Khamzat since he was pushed to his limit against the most underrated Welterweight of all-time, my boy Gilbert Burns, and he's been taking shots at Perreira for a little bit. Although this won't be easy fight for Perreira (because Khamzat is a stud), this could solidify Perreira as a force everyone should be worried about, even the wrestlers! However, the upside for Khamzat is much greater then for the former champ, so it might be a silly, prideful move that could bite him in the ass. The other fight that Poatan could take at Middleweight is the trilogy fight which he will probably lobby for! Izzy after the fight stated he wasn't going to give him an immediate rematch, and I am almost certain Perreira is not going to be willing to fight 2 or 3 times to regain a belt from a guy he already beat 3 times before. So unless Israel gets some balls, and decides to genuinely settle the score with Poatan, I am almost certain he's moving up.

N​ext, but not least, The Champ. What's next for Izzy? As a result of lapping the division, and not many challenges for him in the first place, Adesanya is in a privileged position, in which he can take a 3rd fight, with the consensus #1 contender at Middleweight, Robert Whittaker, who he's beaten twice before. He can fight Alex Perreira in the trilogy, but holding the belt, and being a star in the company, gives him the right to decline what is probably the toughest road for the Middleweight Champion. Or Izzy can take a year off, work on his wrestling, recover, and wait for Du Plessis to beat a top guy and earn his shot.

A​desanya vs Whittaker 3 won't sell, and can only be bad for Izzy. Adesanya vs Perreira 3 will be massive, but is very risky for Adesanya and could lose him his coveted superstardom, so honestly, fighting Du Plessis in 'The Battle For Africa' seems like the most sensible decision. The fan in me wants Poatan vs. Stylebender 3, and I love Robert Whittaker as a human, but if I were Izzy, i'd wait and take Dricus Du Plessis with a fat paycheck.

L​ast, and certainly not least, my boy Gilbert Burns. Honestly, if the UFC wasn't so short sighted, they should've made the hype on this UFC 287 Co-Main Event much bigger, and waited for the result to name Colby the #1 contender, but that didn't happen. So Gilbert went out there, fought a good disciplined fight, and handled Jorge Masvidal, for what? The backup fighter spot on the Colby Covington vs Leon Edwards match? Yeah, lol. So since he's not next in line, here are a couple routes for Burns to take.

B​urns vs Usman 2, if he wins, he's next, no debate. IF he wins, IF. Usman is still a killer my friends, a killer that knocked out Gilbert Burns a couple years ago, and a killer that's going to be hungry to get back to the top of his division, risky. Burns vs Chimaev 2. I personally don't think Chimaev wants another war for possibly no gain, he's in title talks, and there are easier fights he can take, that'll move him closer to his championship aspirations, silly for both parties. The PFL? Gilbert mentioned in his post-fight presser that he 'wants the title shot, or to be released', and I say this because I love Gilbert.. be careful what you wish for. Gilbert is furthest, 2 wins away from a title shot, in a wide open title race, his star is growing, the company is growing, and with the title comes PPV points, and more sponsors then he can handle. Gilbert, be patient with these fools, and keep on knocking down who they give you. If Burns chills, makes weight for Colby vs Leon, he'll be next, and if it's a quick fight, that could be by the end of the year, so stay the course Gilbert, you're so close.

U​FC 287 was a massive card, Miami was buzzing, Dana left very pleased, and I think the winners and losers on Saturday are going to benefit from such a spectacular event. Izzy took the deepest breath, Perreira, and Rosas tied for the biggest step backwards, and Burns did his job, as he always does. The great Jorge Masvidal retired, Rob Font got back on the winning track, and next Saturday there's more, so leave your comments, rewatch the fights, and complain about me to your girlfriends. Til' next time.

-​FreeHoneyy

[lucasfights]

Gilbert Burns vs. Jorge Masvidal (Preview and Betting Guide)

T​his Saturday April 8th Jorge Masvidal will meet Gilbert Burns in a screamer of a Welterweight matchup in south Florida. Contrary to Masvidal's recent encounters, there's no real beef, not a ton of trash talk, and both competitors seem to be focusing on sharpening their respective swords, to come into this UFC 287 Co-Main Event as ready as possible. Masvidal has tried to poke at Gilbert, maybe trying to add fuel to his own fire, or pull Gilbert into a more emotional war of words before the fight, forcing him to maybe misplace his focus, but Jorge has done so, unsuccessfully . Gilbert Burns, who I will say, is one of my favorite fighters in the promotion, has maintained his calm, cool persona, and reittirated, like in many fights before, that the best talking is done in the cage. Which makes for an exhilirating Co-Main Event clash, that both fighters must win.

I​n this same Welterweight division, in London, less than a month ago, Leon Edwards defeated Kamaru Usman for the second time. Possibly ending Usman's reign over the division for good. And I don't know about you, but for me, it's always interesting to think of fighters sitting at home, watching other fighters fight, and I have no doubt both Jorge "Gamebread" Masvidal, and Gilbert "Durinho" Burns were glued to their respective screens, in full England kits, singing "God Save The Queen" at the edge of their vocal registers. Why? Because Masvidal, who is coming off 3 losses, two to the ex-champion Kamaru Usman (meaning that as long as Kamaru has the belt, Jorge is peaking at a PPV Co-Main, or a Fight Night Main Event in any subsequent fight), and Gilbert Burns, who's knockout loss to Kamaru in 2021 still meant he had to knockoff 2 or 3 more contenders to warrant a rematch, were given new life when Usman relinquished his old friend, the belt. So it's safe to say, they were both cheering for Edwards. Interestingly enough, in a English UFC event, when Leon was a lesser known contender, and Masvidal was finished putting out the flame that was Darren Till, they got into a backstage altercation, with the accepted rumour being that Jorge gave Leon a 2 piece and a soda (a couple slaps to the face). In the following weeks arguing ensued, a fight got close to being actualized, but never happened, and here we are. Burns who's coming off impressive wins against "Wonderboy" Stephen Thompson, and Neil Magny, is a maximum, 2 fights away from the title, and due to their history, and the size of his stardom, an impressive win on Saturday can cattapult Masvidal into title contention, giving him a crack at the belt by the end of the year.

So w​ith all that being said, is Masvidal due for another highlight? Pulling another cat out of the bag, like he has done so many times in his 50 fight career. Or is Burns going to take him down, submit him, and get on 95 North as fast as he can, to miss the event traffic? Neither. Burns is going to level change, defend, fight smart, and win 2, maybe 3 rounds, as Masvidal looks to strike, scramble, and punish Burns in every interaction. He will put on a valiant display of toughness, and capability, but will eventually be outclassed by the BJJ black belt, only for them to both find out neither of them are fighting for the title anytime soon.

I​f I was a gambler, not just a casual sports bettor, but a guy who fights the man, and gets what's meant for him, I'd bet Burns by split decision at +900. I know it's a very specific scenario. You'd have to cheer for Masvidal for 5 to 10 minutes, hope he was in a friendly enough environment to sway a judge to give a win in a fight he most likely lost, and you'd have to hope Burns did enough to put it out of reach, without absolutely torching Masvidal. Seems plausible. I would venture to say, more than plausible, likely. Even though Masvidal is tough, as Dan Hardy says "Masvidal's great at surviving". This, for sure won't be an easy fight for Gilbert, Jorge will scramble, post his arm, and make himself very hard to get taken down, and controlled, but Burns will outwill him, and outclass him, reminding Jorge that there are levels. Jorge is going to be in Miami, in front of his home crowd, making Gilbert work for every inch, I don't think it's crazy to think atleast one judge will score it his way. At +900, this is my sleeper.

I​f I was cold, sharp, and calculated, and I wanted to make some cash, while having a personal reason to watch this fight, I would bet the fight to go the distance at +125. Gilbert rarely gets finished, and Jorge doesn't really either. Both guys have potential stoppages in their respectives arsenal's, but neither are destroyers. I think they hit eachother, Gilbert grapples, Jorge wrestles, and it goes for a hard fought 15 minutes. Take this.

A​nd last, but certainly not least, my lock is the Over 1.5 rounds at -175. I know it's almost 2-1 but I this is almost too low, the odds should be worse. Barring an Askren-like knockout from Jorge, or Gilbert doing his best Usman impression, and landing that haymaker from hell in the early in the second, it goes the distance. It's going to be a lot of work, a lot of grappling, and maybe a finish on a worn out opponent. Both of these guys are used to going 5 rounds, and in this 3 round fight, as hard as they can talk, they both wanna win, and can't afford a silly mistake like the one they both made against Kamaru. Watch this fight go 3, while you regret not having taken this layup of a pick.

S​ee, I said it and I did it, I found a reason to consume all this MMA content. Due to these countless hours of film study, and my self procclaimed mastery of all things 'fights I am interested in' you should really take my word for it, and put some of your real life dollars on this matchup. Honestly though, take my opinions for what they are, opinions. I care about the sport, and look to understand before I speak, but nobody knows, and if you think Jorge is going to win, take him at +750 to win by decision. When it's all said and done we all have to answer for our opinions, and i'm not sure why, but I put mine in writing. Thanks for reading.

-​Freehoneyy

[lucasfights]

Alex Perreira vs Israel Adesanya 2 (Preview and Betting Guide)

T​his Saturday is UFC 287 and although there are a couple locks on this card, I wanted to ignore the other fights and properly prepare you for this screamer of a Main Event. What props are locks? Which ones give you the best bang for your buck? And what sneaky picks have we found, that the oddsmakers and the general public are overlooking?

To understand the fight, and why we're picking what we're picking, we have to dive in. Israel Adesanya and Alex Perreira have fought 3 times already, twice in Glory (a little known chinese kickboxing promotion), and once in the UFC, Perreira has won all 3. So, why are we doing a fourth? one man clearly owns the other, and we've seen all we need to see! No! out of the 9 full rounds these two have fought Adesanya has won 7, getting robbed on a decision in their first bout, and getting stopped in the next two, stoppages that were preceeded by the New Zealander's dominance. Perreira's power has been the great equalizer, or the great lopsider in this case, but we can't ignore the fact that Izzy looked the much better fighter for most of their fights; After Perreira knocked out Adesanya, Israel made the jump to MMA, while Alex became a Glory double champion, and continued his reign over kickboxing.

I​t's now 2018 and Israel Adesanya is making his UFC debut, he's an exciting prospect, and he's an ocean away from his Brazilian demons. He fights four times this year, and gets wins against guys like Marvin Vettori, and Derek Brunson. The following year Adesanya knocks off a couple more contenders and gets a title shot against Australian champion Robert Whittaker, Bobby Knuckles is no match for this young agile kickboxer and Adesanya dispatches him in the 2nd round. Now the UFC champion Israel grows dominant and rules over the division until 2022, until a familiar foe comes back to haunt him. Perreira came to the UFC beat a couple of decent guys, and got the title shot against this older, wiser version of Adesanya. Pundits, and fans alike were expecting Adesanya to redeem himself, as Israel opened a 3-1 favorite, ready to defend what had been his for the better part of 4 years.

I​srael outclasses Alex, and is cruising into the fifth round, up 3-1 needing to just manage distance to win this fight, and he gets knocked out, again. Another fight, against the same opponent, in which he's winning, and suddenly, he loses. How heartbreaking, the feeling that you've done everything right, and you've prepared, and kept your focus, and won 3 rounds to put the decision out of reach, and you get caught, again. So now what?

I​srael had defended his title 5 times, and is one of the faces of the UFC, so he gets an immediate rematch, but does it go differently?

Y​es, Israel Adesanya knocks out Alex Perreira at the end of the 2nd round.

With that being said, h​ere are some bets that I think are worth a look. If you want to stay on the fence and respect Alex's power, a good bet for good odds is the Under 2.5 Rounds at +170. In all their fights they have gone to the final round, Izzy has been knocked out twice in the last round of fights he was dominating. Something in my stomach tells me he's not letting it go that far, and with aggression comes counter-punching, and with Poatan's counter-punches come KO's. Under 3.5 rounds is at +110, meaning oddsmakers are prepping for a fight that ends towards the latter half of the third. Get better odds, bet less money, and take the Under 2.5 at +170.

A​nother bet that caught my eye was Izzy in R1, R2, or R3 for +375. Mind you Izzy was a self proclaimed "3 seconds" away from stopping Perreira in R1 (Perreira getting saved by the bell), so for +375 I think it's worth a 20$. Like I stated in the previous paragraph, Adesanya will come out aggressive, find his shots, make Poatan reactive, and look to finish him as soon as possible. With this bet you're getting three rounds of potential stoppages, and by the off-chance that Izzy takes him down, and does some work on the ground, and submits him, you still win. My expert opinion, worth it.

L​astly, I have Izzy TKO/KO/DQ or Sub +265. Any round, he stops Perreira, you win! A guy that's coming off 5 title defenses, and a sudden 5th round KO loss, to a guy that, he feel's is better than. No way in hell Izzy comes into this fight passively. Expect to see the Izzy we saw versus Gastelum, a fighter that can go into deep waters in the championship rounds, after taking punishment, and hurt his opponent. Perreira has power, but much less to prove; also the only time Perreira has lost in MMA was a to a rear-naked choke in his first fight at Jungle Fight 82 (a Brazilian MMA promotion). So don't be surprised to see an outclassed Izzy take this fight to the ground, and find a submission.

In conclusion, d​ue to my bold claim, and my preffered wagers, I think it's pretty clear to see what I think is going to go down in the Main Event of this massive Miami card, but if I had to make a bet on the guy that I didn't think was going to pull it out, and make a case for The Champ, I think he wins a majority decision.

How? I think Perreira understands he can take Adesanya to the ground, I think he felt Adesanya's power, and he knows a tired Adesanya, is a slow Adesanya. Perreira will use Glover, and sharpen his wrestling, he's going to leverage his size, and his strength, and he's going to do his best Khabib impression. Take him down, and maul him. He's going to make him work to get up, and take him down again. He'll use the fence, his clinch, and his leg kicks, and he's going to make this a long arduous 25 minutes for Israel. Alex Perreira by decision is at +475, but if you want to take an extra little leep for the double the money, Perreira by majority decision is +1000. So please, bet with caution, don't wager anything you aren't willing to lose, and give me all the weak arguments your little brains can fathom in the comments section, see you Saturday.

-​FreeHoneyy