What do you predict the world will look like, 100 years in the future?
A lot of things have been changing pretty quickly in the last couple of decades, which makes this sort of prediction hard to nail down, but it seems like the most impactful changes will have something to do with the internet.
A hundred years ago, a lot of people on earth worked in agriculture. They didn't have enough to eat. Now a lot of people on earth work in office jobs, and they have too much to eat. And they have internet access (or are gaining it).
A hundred years ago, it was very hard to spread information to a lot of people on a large scale. People didn't travel much, and writing was time-consuming. Now we can talk to other people anywhere in the world in real time. We can learn about things that are happening there, in real time. This is a pretty big deal, and not in a "quality of life" sense per se – it's not about how many people have air conditioning, it's about how everyone in the world can learn about things.
The internet is how we learn about things now, how we talk to each other. But we aren't good at harnessing it. Maybe in 100 years we'll have figured out how to use it for something other than conversations with people who are literally on the other side of the world. Maybe we'll have wised up and banned Russia's Internet Research Agency. Maybe there will be more reliable filters between us and the low-paid Filipinos who make those Facebook ads.
It's hard to harness the internet. It's not just that it changes fast, or that bad actors try to game it. It's entirely unstructured. We can tell stories about what it's like to be on the internet, like "you just spend all your time on Tumblr" and "your mom is on Facebook," but this is illusory – these statements don't apply to everyone who is on the internet. Some people spend all their time using the internet for work, which is very different. Some people don't use it much at all – they use their smartphones to do their banking and that's it. You can think of Facebook as one giant website or you can think of it as millions of people across the world who happen to be connected to each other in various ways, and either way it's probably a radical difference in your life. The internet is a series of experiences with no shared structure. You can't even say "everyone on the internet today" – you could say that on Dec. 20, 2016 and the statement would have been true, but not on Dec. 20, 2017. What is it like, today, to "be on the internet" in any general sense?
In 100 years we might figure this out, but it seems unlikely. I'm not a historian of the internet, but I can't think of any successful precedents for this kind of success. In the 20th century, we went from gramophones to MP3s, from typewriters to word processors, from telephones to mobile phones, but all of those changes were aimed at allowing people to use the old things better. They didn't replace the old things in any general way. Telephones still aren't relevant for long-distance, intercontinental communication. If I want to talk to someone on the other side of the world, I'm more likely to do it on the internet than I am to do it by calling them on the phone. But when you think about it, that's weird, right? Our internet is a series of experiences with no shared structure, while their phone calls at least have the structure of being phone calls.
So I'll predict the internet will get worse. That's my best guess for the next 100 years. (Of course, I might be wrong.)
It's hard to predict the details of these changes – it's hard enough to know how to harness the old internet, much less the new one – but I think the broad outline is clear enough.
