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unnamed estovakian Air Force pilot with a wife and kids heading right once more because THIS TIME you’ll get the ace pilot who can pull 20Gs and has a kill record of 2 FUCKING HUNDRED PLANES. yes. go get em tiger.

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Sorry for showing up late boss. I was sitting on my boyfriend's vibrator

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Gambler's Fallacy/Monte Carlo Fallacy

Example of the Gambler's Fallacy/Monte Carlo Fallacy

For example, consider a series of 10 coin flips that have all landed with the "heads" side up. Under the Gambler's Fallacy, a person might predict that the next coin flip is more likely to land with the "tails" side up.

The likelihood of a fair coin turning up heads is always 50%. Each coin flip is an independent event, which means that any and all previous flips have no bearing on future flips. If before any coins were flipped a gambler were offered a chance to bet that 11 coin flips would result in 11 heads, the wise choice would be to turn it down because the probability of 11 coin flips resulting in 11 heads is extremely low. However, if offered the same bet with 10 flips having already produced 10 heads, the gambler would have a 50% chance of winning because the odds of the next one turning up heads is still 50%. The fallacy comes in believing that with 10 heads having already occurred, the 11th is now less likely.

(via Gambler's Fallacy/Monte Carlo Fallacy)

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