John + Abbie Are Parents!
Welcome to The World, Gracie!
John David + Abbie (Burnett) Duggar welcomed their first child—a daughter they’ve named Grace “Gracie” Annette—on January 7, 2020 at 3:21 AM. Us Weekly had the exclusive, and the couple told the tabloid—
“Our lives have changed forever with the arrival of our baby girl. She is a beautiful gift from God. We are so blessed the Lord has given her to us. It’s still surreal to know that we are really parents, but it’s a great new adventure that we are excited to take on together.”
For Gracie’s impact on John + Abbie’s Data, as well as the Overall Duggar Family Data... Read on!
Timing of...
Pregnancy Announcement
John + Abbie announced the pregnancy on August 1, 2019. Abbie was due January 13, 2020—so, she was 115 Days Along (16 Weeks, 3 Days), at the time of the announcement. For now, the Predictor assumes that Abbie’s theoretical future pregnancy announcements will also happen at 115 Days Along.
By Duggar standards, this announcement was a little late. Until John + Abbie’s, it was ‘typical’ for Duggar Couples to announce a pregnancy at 93 Days—or, 13 Weeks, 2 Days—Along. Factoring in Gracie, it’s now ‘typical’ to announce 1 Day Later, at 94 Days Along. This varies by a Standard Deviation (SD) of 33 Days, however, so the Probable Range (68%) for Duggars’ Pregnancy Announcements is 61–127 Days Along—i.e., between ~Weeks 9–18.
Sex Reveal
On August 20, 2019, J.D. + Abbie revealed that they were expecting a girl. (Note—Previously, I have put August 19 as their Sex Reveal date; however, it was revealed quite late at night—already after midnight on the East Coast—so, let’s go with August 20.) At the time, Abbie was 134 Days Along (or 19 Weeks, 1 Day). The Predictor assumes that John + Abbie will do all future Sex Reveals at 134 Days Along, as well, since this is their only data point.
As for the Duggar Data... Prior to Gracie’s, a ‘typical’ Duggar Sex Reveal happened at 152 Days Along (i.e., 21 Weeks, 5 Days). After Grace’s, that shifted to 151 Days Along (21 Weeks, 4 Days)—i.e., 1 Day Earlier. With a SD of 28 Days, the Probable Range (68%) for Duggar Sex Reveals is from 123–179 Days Along.
Delivery (vs. Due Date)
Abbie’s due date with Grace was January 13, but she actually gave birth 6 Days Early on January 7, 2020. The Predictor assumes that she will deliver exactly 6 Days Early with future pregnancies, as well.
Prior to Grace’s birth, the ‘typical’ GrandDuggar was born 2 (1.67) Days Early. Factoring in Grace, there was No Meaningful Change; it remained at 2 Days Early, shifting only from 1.67 Days to 1.98 Days Early.
Birth Announcement
Abbie gave birth on January 7, 2020, but Us Weekly didn’t report on it until January 9. So, John + Abbie announced Grace’s arrival 2 Days Later.
Prior to Grace, it was Duggar–typical to announce a child’s arrival 1 Day Later. Factoring in Gracie, there is No Meaningful Change; it’s still 1 Day Later.
Birthweight & Length
At birth, Baby Grace weighed 7 Pounds, 11 Ounces, and measured 20.75 Inches long. She’s one of only 6 GrandDuggars to weigh <8 Pounds, at birth. (The rest are Bella, Garrett, Addison, Meredith, and Ivy.)
Prior to Gracie, your ‘typical’ GrandDuggar weighed 8 Pounds, 8 Ounces and measured 21 Inches, when they were born. After Gracie, it shifted to 8 Pounds, 1 Ounces (–1 Ounce) and 21 Inches (No Meaningful Change).
Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing
John + Abbie married on November 3, 2018. Gracie was born on January 7, 2020, exactly 430 Days (~14 Months) later.
Pre–Gracie, the ‘typical’ Duggar Firstborn arrived 367 Days (1 Year, 2 Days) into his or her parents’ marriage. By factoring in Gracie, that shifts slightly to 374 Days—i.e., +1 Week. Here’s each of the Duggars’ Marriage–to–Firstborn delay, for reference—
273 Days Joy + Austin, Joe + Kendra
289 Days Jill + Derick
331 Days Josiah + Lauren (Marriage–to–Asa Projected DOB)
369 Days Jessa + Ben
377 Days Josh + Anna
400 Days Josiah + Lauren (Miscarriage–to–Bella DOB)
430 Days John + Abbie
621 Days Jinger + Jeremy
After Grace, Marriage–to–Firstborn varies by a SD of 104 Days, so the Probable Range (68%) for the birth of Child 1 is 270–478 Days, post–wedding.
Looking Ahead
As of January 9, 2020, the ‘typical’ Duggar Couple’s Firstborn–to–Secondborn gap is 1.78x Longer than their Marriage–to–Firstborn gap. This ratio is critical to the New Predictor’s analysis of 1 Child Couples. It multiplies those couples’ Marriage–to–Firstborn gap by that ratio (1.78 for Duggars) to get their Projected Pace. (That Pace will then adjust as they add to their family. It’s simply the average of all of their spacings, except Marriage–to–Firstborn.)
With this in mind... John + Abbie’s Projected Pace is 1 Child Every 766 Days (~25 Months). Again, that’s calculated by taking their actual, 430 Day Marriage–to–Firstborn spacing and multiplying by the Duggar Firstborn–to–Secondborn vs. Marriage–to–Firstborn Ratio [1.78].)
Based on their Projected Pace, plus their other data, here’s when to expect Duggar–Burnett #2—
Baby News September 15, 2021
Sex Reveal October 4, 2021
Due Date February 27, 2022
Birthdate February 21, 2022
Assuming that John + Abbie maintain the Projected Pace and that Abbie’s fertility lasts until Age 40.47, liked her mother’s did, their ESOQ is 6 Children.
