Important things to know about what’s happening in DC today:
- There are about a dozen separate rally/protest events planned by different groups - some larger, some smaller. I expect these groups to start in various locations near the Capitol and converge in the afternoon, especially when the joint session begins (1 PM ET)
- The most likely scenario is that the senators and representatives who have promised to object do so, initiating a potentially lengthy delay for debate. During this debate, evidence of fraud in swing states will he presented, along with the changes in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania with their legislatures potentially decertifying results.
Then one of the following will happen:
- Congress may agree on a delay (Cruz is asking for 10 days) to further investigate fraud claims. I find this more likely to pass, since those who aren’t willing to stick their necks out for Trump may see agreeing to the audit as a way to placate their constituents.
- Congress may vote to certify results. If this happens, expect some craziness among the crowd in DC. There were already clashes between the Proud Boys and police last night.
If you haven’t been following this, you should know that the Proud Boys and other pro-Trump groups are now turning on the police because they continue to enforce lockdown orders and in some cases have actually protected Antifa while “crowd controlling” Trump supporters.
Most notably this past week there was an anti-lockdown protest in Salem, OR where police appeared to protect Antifa and let them threaten/provoke Trump supporters, leading the Trump supporters to stomp on and try to burn a thin blue line flag, shouting that the police were “oathbreakers” and “treasonists,” then talking about the punishment for treason.
This, along with the intensity with which many Trump supporters (especially those in DC today) believe it is impossible for Trump to lose (many believing that 4 more years of Trump is God’s plan, and therefore it must happen), could lead to some chaos if Congress votes to certify. Not sure exactly what it would look like, but some have hinted at Occupy-style action.
Also, at this point Trump may still have back-up plans. Some have talked about a coup using the military, which I find highly unlikely, but this is 2021. You never know.
Trump does still have a case that SCOTUS is supposed to hear, and that could potentially overturn the certification. Again, highly unlikely based on what SCOTUS has done lately.
- Pence could reject the electoral votes from the states in question. If he rejects at least Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and one other state, Biden would have less than 270. Since WI and PA are moving to decertify, Pence may actually have the ability to do this constitutionally. It’s definitely a gray area, and the only time anything close to this has happened was 1960 when Nixon has to choose between two slates of electors from Hawaii (it didn’t change the outcome of the election though, and Nixon actually certified the votes for Kennedy, his opponent).
If alternate slates of electors are presented to Pence (potentially possible for WI and PA, unlikely for other states), Pence could certify those instead. This is unlikely, and unless alternate slates are provided for at least WI, PA, and one other state Biden would still win.
If you’re in D.C., be careful and be aware of your surroundings. Know what you are and are not willing to participate in when it comes to protest/direct action. Have a plan to get out if things get too crazy. Stay safe!
