#mk bhadrakumar

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The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) allows China access to the Indian Ocean and to shorten the route for its oil and gas imports from the Persian Gulf and connects China’s relatively less developed southern regions to the world market. A major goal of Chinese strategic planners is being realized, overcoming staunch opposition by the US. From an Indian perspective, CMEC signifies a major setback to its counterstrategy to discredit, debunk and derail the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects in the region. Meanwhile, the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) has caused revulsion and anger in Bangladesh and a deepening of relations between Dhaka and Beijing can be expected. Clearly, India’s Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) agenda is spluttering. India has also lost the plot on regional connectivity. With Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar wading into the BRI, India stands badly isolated.

MK Bhadrakumar, 'The Myanmar-China pact is a setback for India', Asia Times

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Historically, the alliance’s command structure and military capabilities were developed to ensure effective deterrence of the former Soviet Union and the European states feared that its involvement in the Middle East would have negative consequences for security in Europe. This led to the development of flexible mechanisms in the post-Cold War era that support so-called out-of-area operations relying on European structures, “coalitions of the willing”, and cooperation with partner countries. Yet, the European countries’ efforts were scattered, and were often overlooked by the US, leading to greater pressure on NATO involvement. The NMI, on the contrary, is a full-bodied mission appearing in the Middle East for the first time. It duplicated the model of the Resolute Support Mission in Afghanistan. Thus, NMI also may lead to a more even distribution of security-related costs between the European members of the alliance and the US. This is indeed an important consideration for Trump. The NMI means more support from the US’ allies to stabilize the situation in the Middle East (which, Trump has pointed out, impacts Europe’s security too.)

MK Bhadrakumar, 'US takes Israel’s advice for unified ‘Syraq’ strategy', Asia Times

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The Syrian war is morphing with the US drawing Iraq into it and bringing the western alliance system into the enterprise.  the US is quietly stepping up deployments to Iraq. The US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo just made “surprise visits” to Erbil and Baghdad. He was plainly dismissive that “there’s no contradiction whatsoever” in the shifting US strategy on Syria. The “Syraq” strategy is going to put Russia, Turkey and Iran in a quandary. They have to adapt quickly because their divergent interests in the conflict and the underlying contradictions in their axis will soon begin to surge. This ‘big picture’ remains elusive unless the NATO Mission in Iraq (NMI) that appeared on the horizon is co-related with the US’s withdrawal plan in Syria.

MK Bhadrakumar, 'US takes Israel’s advice for unified ‘Syraq’ strategy', Asia Times

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China has become a stakeholder – even guarantor – in the resolution of the Rohingya issue, considering that the terminus of the 1,600-kilometer-long CMEC-Kyaukpyu Special Economic Zone with a deep-water port opening into the Bay of Bengal – lies in Rakhine state. The CMEC includes big cross-border oil and gas pipelines that have been operating already, while an industrial park and a major railway project are planned involving massive Chinese investments.

MK Bhadrakumar, 'The Myanmar-China pact is a setback for India', Asia Times

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There is a saying that every US president in modern times has started a war. Does the NMI become the harbinger of an expanded US intervention in Syria and Iraq – something which the US’ regional allies (Israel, in particular) have been seeking? Indeed, Trump’s recent visit to Iraq against the backdrop of the launch of the NMI marked a defining moment. The Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi said he was informed about Trump’s impending visit in the morning and he set out two conditions. “First, he (Trump) shall land on Iraqi land and be given an Iraqi reception like any other foreign official. Second, there shall be an agenda with specific matters and a short meeting.” However, Trump arrived at al-Assad air base in the evening and stayed about three and a half hours. He had no face-to-face meeting with Iraqi officials and only held a phone call with Abdul-Mahdi. Interestingly, Abdul-Mahdi sounded testy. “There are talks about the visit of President Trump to a US base. This is wrong. There is no US base in Iraq. There are only Iraqi bases where some US and non-US soldiers are present,” he said.

MK Bhadrakumar, 'US takes Israel’s advice for unified ‘Syraq’ strategy', Asia Times

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The launch of the NMI mission, of course, carried the imprimatur of the US. Importantly, it took place just a fortnight before US President Donald Trump made his dramatic announcement on the withdrawal of American troops from Syria. And exactly a fortnight thereafter – that is, three weeks after the NMI appeared in Baghdad – Trump made a “surprise visit” to al-Asad Air Base, situated in western Iraq between Baghdad and the Syrian border. Trump’s visit, accompanied by his wife, was highly symbolic, being his first trip to troops stationed in a combat zone. Of course, the most important remark made by Trump during the visit was that he has no plans to withdraw US forces from Iraq. He added, “In fact, we could use this (Iraq) as the base if we wanted to do something in Syria.”

MK Bhadrakumar, 'US takes Israel’s advice for unified ‘Syraq’ strategy', Asia Times

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Indo-Sino Diplomacy: A dialogue without strategy

Indo-Sino Diplomacy: A dialogue without strategy

India should lighten its China baggage

by MK Bhadrakumar

( February 27, 2017, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) The India-China Strategic Dialogue held in Beijing last week was not productive. But Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar said in his statement not less than four times that his talks with Chinese officials were “useful”. Nuances are what make diplomacy an absorbing pastime.

The Chinese side…

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Obama underestimated Russia’s resolve to maintain a buffer on its western borders, which has been the traditional invasion route from Europe. Washington literally forced Putin’s hands on Crimea and eastern Ukraine. What happened was not Putin’s choice. In the obsessive drive to demonize Putin, it is often overlooked that he desires a partnership with the West, but on equal terms.

Melkulangara Bhadrakumar, 'Obama’s overture to Putin has paid off', Asia Times