#mo tom

[racinglegends]

I have quite a few favourites for this year’s Kentucky Derby (almost half the field, I’m sorry). Mo Tom, Mor Spirit (Danish owned, hah), Mohaymen, Shagaf, Danzing Candy, Oscar Nominated and then I cannot help but like the maiden runner Trojan Nation and Japanese raider Lani, too.

If you want to know my absolout #1 favourite, then it is Mo Tom. <3

Photos: 1-3: AP Photo/Garry Jones -- 4: Coady Photography -- 5+6: Andy Lyons/Getty Images -- 7+8: Pat McDonough/The C-J

[itisallbarbaro-blog]

Comments on Derby Runners Horse-by-Horse

1. Trojan Nation (Gallagher/Gryder)

“He’s a maiden, but he still finished 2nd in a GI by a head!” Yes, but it was also in the slowest Wood Memorial in history after a horrific pace meltdown. Maidens that consistently earn points across multiple races deserve to be in the Derby. Maidens that earn points in ONE race by way of perfect trip and race shape capitalization do not. Throw out. 

2. Suddenbreakingnews (Von Hemel/Quinonez)

Horse has an absolutely unreal turn of foot, but his inconsistency is concerning. He got almost identical trips in the Southwest (1st) and the Rebel (5th) and couldn’t manage to make up ground even with the longer distance. Benefitted by pace slow down in the Arkansas Derby and his acceleration in the stretch allowed him to close in on Creator, but wasn’t enough. He could pick up the pieces for a place in the superfecta.

3. Creator (Asmussen/Santana)

DO NOT discount Santana’s ability to get a horse home by urging through brute strength. Another closer that has benefitted by pace collapse in his preps. He has shown the ability to weave through traffic which is a huge plus in a race like the Derby. Once again, closer to watch for in the stretch.

4. Mo Tom (Amoss/Lanerie)

Poor horse can’t catch any good racing luck, and I maintain my belief that it’s not the rider’s fault. Horses with traditionally bad racing luck typically aren’t ones to look for in the Derby, but you  never know when that luck will turn around. He’s won a stake on fast Churchill dirt and put in a good performance over the slop at the same track. In his one prep race win, he ran an astounding 4.29 second final sixteenth. The ability and speed is there, but he’s still kind of a wild card at this point.

5. Gun Runner (Asmussen/Geroux)

How this horse isn’t second choice is beyond me. Louisiana horses have historically failed in the derby, but every trend ends sometime. He’s the only horse besides Nyquist and Mohaymen to win more than one 3-year-old prep, which suggests he’s more consistent than the rest. He stands a chance to win this if the favorite doesn’t fire. 

6. My Man Sam (Brown/I. Ortiz)

Inexperience is a huge drawback to this horse, all ability aside. An inexperienced closer in the Derby…yikes. 

7. Oscar Nominated (Maker/Leparoux)

Enough with the Animal Kingdom comparisons, this horse is not Animal Kingdom. “But, he ran the fastest final eighth in the 1 1/8 mile preps!” Yes, but he had a 60 mph tailwind blowing him in the direction of the wire. Terrible race with GIII horses at best, plus Airoforce who we all can see is not the same horse he was as a 2-year-old. However, this horse has been training lights out and seems to really like the Churchill dirt so look for him in the top half of the field if he has a decent trip. 

8. Lani (Matsunaga/Take)

This horse scares me a little, not gonna lie. He’s an absolute nutcase wildcard. If he’s on, he’s on, but he’s unpredictable and lazy. There’s legitimate concern that he will either a) not load and be a late scratch/non-starter, b) flip in the gate, c) not break from the gate, d) prop in the middle of the race with a dozen horses behind him and cause an accident. But who knows. He’s not too shabby when he’s willing to run, but there’s a huge question mark on whether or not he wants to run. 

9. Destin (Pletcher/Castellano)

Setting a track record at Tampa is not an easy thing to do. Even so, this was an overall weird race. Outwork, the pacesetter, ended up struggling to win the Wood Memorial next out. Brody’s Cause didn’t fire in the Tampa Bay Derby and came back to win the GI Bluegrass next out. Either this group of 3-year-olds is just crazy inconsistent, or maybe Destin is the real deal. His terrible workouts in the morning, bad workhorse or not, is also concerning. He shouldn’t be discounted, but he also shouldn’t be bet if he sinks below his 15-1 morning line. 

10. Whitmore (Moquett/Espinoza)

While this gelding’s only wins are at six furlongs, there is little to no reason to believe he will not go a mile and a quarter while looking at pedigree and his route races. Only off the board once in a sloppy and tough Kentucky Jockey Club, this horse owns a convincing win at Churchill. He “flattened” in his last three races at Oaklawn and still managed to hit the board, yet few people notice his rough and wide trips and the fact that he began his moves on the backstretch. If the rider can just wait to ask the horse until the top of the stretch and the horse has a clear run, his turn of foot can easily overtake the front flight and hit the board. He will have to navigate around all the other closers in the race which may create traffic problems in addition to the fact he will be closing from approximately 19th. Superfecta horse for sure. 

11. Exaggerator (Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux)

A deserving second/third choice, Exaggerator is yet another horse that continually capitalizes on perfect setups but can’t win if he doesn’t have one. He is definitely a step below Nyquist, and unless Nyquist stops or has a horrible trip, the chances this horse will pass the favorite are slim. A Nyquist/Exaggerator exacta would not be shocking.

12. Tom’s Ready (Stewart/Hernandez)

He’s a Dallas Stewart-trainee, which means he’s likely to stun and run a closing second. However, he also looks to be the best of Stewart’s previous contenders so maybe Stewart will finally get his win with the perfect race. He was clearly second best in his three-year-old races behind Mo Tom and Gun Runner with exception to the Risen Star in which he had wide trips and understandably tired. One to watch, but is still not likely to win. Pedigree suggests that 1 1/16 miles is his limit. There are better horses in the field, if only by a slim margin.

13. Nyquist (O’Neill/Gutierrez)

The favorite already has a win from the 13 slot, and there is not enough of a sample size to say that he cannot get a mile and a quarter when looking at either his sire or his sire’s offspring. He is easily the gutsiest horse in the field. If he is in front at the 1/8 pole, or even quarter pole, he likely will not let another horse pass. He keeps getting discounted but still keeps finding a way to win. The field as a whole is fairly wide open, but Nyquist is just a touch better than the rest. One wrong move and he’s a beaten favorite.

14. Mohaymen (McLaughlin/Alvarado)

One bad race does not a bad racehorse make. He’s better than his Florida Derby suggests and he has been working well. The people that hail him as the second coming are wrong, but the people that say he’s worthless are also wrong. He deserves a second shot.

15. Outwork (Pletcher/Velazquez)

This horse is…interesting.  The Wood Memorial was quite possibly the worst Wood in history, aside from being the slowest, but he also had to deal with a fast early pace on the nastiest track of all the 3-year-old preps.  He set a moderate pace in a track record-breaking Tampa Bay Derby and fought hard to just get passed by the winner, but ran a really good race. He’s never been off the board but inexperience could be an issue for him as well. It would be cool to see a son of Uncle Mo win for Pletcher and Repole in the sire’s first crop.

16. Shagaf (Brown/Rosario)

This colt won a badly slowing down Gotham and had zero excuse in the Wood other than he either didn’t like the track or just didn’t fire. He was hailed as a serious Derby contender earlier this year, but his two stakes attempts do not show him as a contender to finish in the top half of the field. With this group of horses, you never know, though.

17. Mor Spirit (Baffert/Stevens)

The Baffert/Stevens crew know how to win a derby. Mor Spirit is wildly consistent and would come as no surprise to hit the board or even win. He’s the closest runner to the Santa Anita Derby pace to keep on running. The rest of the field faded and Exaggerator, as mentioned, capitalized on a good pace setup to romp. Though beaten by 6 ¼, that is likely not the margin that Mor Spirit was “inferior” that day. 

18. Majesto (Delgado/Jaramillo)

While it took him five tries to break his maiden, the horse is improving. Nyquist is better, but closing on an undefeated, 2-year-old Eclipse champion, Derby favorite in the Florida Derby is nothing to sneeze at. He will be overlooked, but he is worth keeping in exotics and even a WPS bet. 

19. Brody’s Cause (Romans/Saez)

This is one of the horse that, to be frank, I cannot figure out. He had no excuse in the Tampa Bay Derby other than maybe being short, but he made no run whatsoever in that race. He has a win at Churchill and is a 2-time GI winner. A bit of a wild card, but it’s the Derby. Anything could happen, and I wouldn’t be shocked to death if he comes running late. 

20. Danzing Candy (Sise/Smith)

This horse acts like he wants exactly no part of a mile and a quarter. Even the trainer has said he doesn’t believe this horse should be in the Derby, but shipped to Churchill because they owners wanted to go. I see him gunning it out of the gate to get in front and set the pace, sizzle himself out a la-Trinniburg, and then start dropping back at the quarter pole. Look for him in the Triple Bend, King’s Bishop, etc., but not the Derby winner’s circle. 

AE Laoban (Guillot/C. Velasquez)

Oh man oh man. A positive to this horse is he consistently ran decently in prep races since January to get points, which is more than can be said of the other maiden in the race.  One of the few pace setters, look for him to be sitting close to the front if he draws in. Him breaking next to Danzing Candy, so long as that is not the horse that scratches to let him in, could lead to a speed duel to set it up for the plethora of closers. If he gets away with a softer pace, he can stay on to be in the top half, or even top five, of the finishers. Maidens don’t often win the Derby, but it’s the Derby and anything can happen. 

AE Cherry Wine (Romans/Albarado)

Sired by Paddy O’Prado, a closer that ran third in the 2010 Kentucky Derby, Cherry Wine has already won at Churchill at a mile and a sixteenth. He also ran third, just missing second, of three closers in the Bluegrass. He was only beaten a shade under two lengths. If he draws in, another closer to watch for in the stretch. I’m repeating myself, but this is not deja vu. 

[silly-fox-in-sox]

Kentucky Derby Contender – Mo Tom

#15 in my 2016 Kentucky Derby Contender series is another unlucky closer. Mo Tom has a very thoughtful face.

[itisallbarbaro-blog]

I 100% agree with Mo Tom's connections' decision to keep Corey Lanerie on the mount.

[itisallbarbaro-blog]

Louisiana Derby

1. Mo Tom has exactly zero racing luck which means the Derby isn't for him. 2. Dazzling Gem ran a nice race but wasn't quite on par with the winner but could hit the board in the Derby if these points get him in and the race plays out right. 3. Tom's Ready is guaranteed to run second in the Derby. 4. Greenpointcrusader will never win another race. 5. Gun Runner is serious. Maybe not at the level of Nyquist or Mohaymen, but still VERY good. Fairgrounds Oaks bonus: Land Over Sea proved that Songbird is beating up on some very good horses decisively.

[analyzedsports]

Kentucky Derby Contenders Top 20 Poll (Nov. 30)

Kentucky Derby Contender, Nyquist remains atop latest ranking; open here for full Top 20 Poll (Nov. 30) #KyDerby142 #RoadtoKyDerby #HorseRacing

2015 Kentucky Derby – Photo Credit Andre’ Chapman/ Analyzed Sports

November 30, 2015 Louisville, KY. (Analyzed Sports)

Kentucky Derby Contenders Top 20 Poll (Nov. 30)

The Reddam Racing owned Derby Contender Nyquist, remained atop the latest Kentucky Derby Contenders Top 20 Poll, with the Top 20 rounded out by Tizzarunner, Sail Ahoy and Unbridled Outlaw.  The remaining Top five remained the same…

View On WordPress