El Nino and CO2
Due to the high-precision monitoring of atmospheric CO2 contents measured in places such as the top of Mauna Loa, Hawaii, scientists have known for years that El Niño events are associated with bigger jumps in atmospheric CO2 than are seen during non-El Niño years (https://tmblr.co/Zyv2Js23gZIW2). However, until the 2016 El Niño, scientists didn’t have a tool that could measure exactly where on Earth that extra CO2 was coming from.
That changed last year. 2016 saw the strongest El Niño event on record and lurking overhead was a satellite launched by the United States called the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2). That satellite carries spectrometers that allow it to measure how much CO2 is in the atmosphere at certain spots, meaning it can measure where extra CO2 is coming from. This image shows an early version of data from that spacecraft – CO2 measurements from 2015. OCO-2 analyses confirmed; a whole lot of extra CO2 release to the atmosphere was triggered by the 2016 El Niño.
There have been three major hypotheses for the source of the extra El Niño CO2: wildfires in Asia where the monsoon is weakened, less growth of the Amazon rainforest, and greater exhaling of CO2 as forests in Africa heat up. It turns out, OCO-2 measured that all 3 of these contributed to the extra CO2 released in 2016.
Getting actual data on all of these processes in an unusual year will let scientists understand how the planet will respond to future changes. For example, warm years in Africa or wildfires in Asia can be triggered by other climate changes that would be expected on a warming world.
The total excess CO2 release triggered by the El Niño event was huge; it was 20% of the total CO2 emitted by human industrial activity last year. Some of this CO2 will recover in future years; wildfire burn areas can slowly recover, but not all of it. For example, a low growth year in the Amazon means that the trees just grew slower, they won’t just grow faster this year because they had a low growth year last year. As the world warms from increasing reenhouse gases in the atmosphere, releases of extra CO2 from the biosphere can therefore become a very large feedback, a way to trigger even more extreme warming as a consequence of initial warming.
-JBB
Image credit: https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia20039
Reference: http://www.nature.com/news/massive-el-niño-sent-greenhouse-gas-emissions-soaring-1.22440









