#ogae

[bettyg196]

Here we go again !

Which country from the top 10 of the OGAE poll 2025 is most likely to flop in Eurovision Song Contest 2025 ? And why ?

Sweden

Austria

Netherlands

Finland

Malta

Albania

France

Spain

Estonia

Norway

Voting ended onMay 10, 2025

[escmemesandstuff]

Eurovision 2024: Fan Poll Comparison

A week leading to the final show of the 2024 edition of the Eurovision Song Contest, let's look at the results of three major fan polls: OGAE, INFE, and Eurojury. Now, there are numerous polls held all over the internet throughout the season, but I consider these three the most "reliable" due to them not allowing voting for one's own home country. OGAE and INFE are long-running fanclubs, whereas the Eurojury vote consists of professional musicians from member countries and an online vote.

On the table below, I have compiled the final results according to each poll.

One factor that immediately stands out is the lack of one definite favourite to win. While last year, Sweden's victory was pretty much the obvious conclusion (which was also reflected by Loreen topping all these three polls), this year is clearly more open, with each poll having a different country on the top spot. Croatia turned out as the OGAE winner, INFE voters preferred Switzerland, and Italy emerged victorious after combining the jury and online votes of the Eurojury. That being said, none of those three countries could be considered a shock winner or unpopular favourite when looking at all three clubs' results, with all of them comfortably making it to the top five along with Belgium. The consistency continues with France, Ukraine, and Netherlands getting a top ten placing in all three polls; even Greece isn't in a bad place, as they only barely missed the top ten in the OGAE poll.

It gets more interesting when you look at where the polls' opinions differ more strongly. A striking example is Germany, who takes the all-too-familiar last place in the two fan club polls, yet earned the eight place in the combined Eurojury results; a placing largely thanks to the jury vote that placed the song fifth, even higher than the fan favourite Croatia (albeit only by two points). Serbia's lovely ballad, while not being what fans tend to gravitate towards, also earned a decent score in Eurojury and got tenth overall. In contrast, Austria and Lithuania got a significantly colder reception from Eurojury juries, raising the concerns of them ending up as flopping fan favourites.

When it comes to the "un-favourites" of the polls, all three agree on Poland and Azerbaijan being among the weakest final-worth entries, both ending on bottom five. Overall the first semifinal is clearly seen as the weaker one, with all bottom fives being dominated by semi 1 songs. When it comes to borderline qualifiers of the second semi, Armenia, Georgia, and Denmark aren't getting too much love from any camp. (On the other hand, Armenia did get a top ten result in the Eurojury jury vote - a bit surprising considering the general tendency of juries snubbing ethnic entries.) As for non-qualifiers, none of the polls would give a place in the final to Iceland, Moldova, Australia, Malta, Czechia, Albania, San Marino, or Latvia. Interestingly enough, Finland got a decent result in the INFE poll, getting 16th. Said poll seems to be fonder of "funny" entires, considering they also have Estonia following suit.

Could these polls give a hunch about the overall results? We should remember that the fan bubble can differ from the general public's taste, and the eventual live performances can have a huge impact towards either direction. That being said, Eurovision winners rarely come out of the blue, and if I had to pick a most likely winner based on multiple factors, it would be either Italy or Switzerland. However, the Eurojury jury winner France also stands a chance - you shouldn't underestimate the power of good-looking men singing romantic ballads, as we saw with Marco Mengoni last year - and despite all of the worries about Croatia flopping in the jury vote, their victory is still within possibility. And based on what we've seen, Ukraine is ready to deliver a magical performance that could very well touch the hearts of both viewers and jury members.

I might revisit this post after the contest and check how the polls compare to the actual results. Exciting times are ahead, for sure!

[escinsight]

Every Fan Of Eurovision Is A True Fan Of Eurovision

Every Fan Of Eurovision Is A True Fan Of Eurovision

What does it mean to be a fan of the Eurovision Song Contest? As ‘Eurovision Fever’ builds in the United Kingdom ahead of Liverpool’s hosting of the Song Contest, more people are talking about the Contest, their love for the Contest, and how excited they are to get tickets when they decided to try and get into the Liverpool Arena. It’s wonderful to see so many joining the community. But there’s…

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[communist-waffel]

The power of these few sentences is infinite.

[eurosong]

Good morning, folks, and welcome to today’s statistical map - it’s about something with which I must admit to having a rather dubious relationship, even when it produces a winner I can get behind: the OGAE fanpoll results. The OGAE, if anyone has somehow, somehow not heard of it despite the constant drip-drop of its results over the weeks leading up to Eurovision every year, is the biggest association of Eurovision fans, whose vote is often talked up to be a foreshadowing of what the actual ESC results might be.

The way I see it, it’s not quite an accurate mirror even to our fandom, let alone to the tastes of the millions of people who tune in to watch the world’s biggest live non-sporting event. It reflects the taste of a small group of hardcore fans - only around 3.5k voted in this year’s poll, and in some countries, as little as a dozen or fewer voted - whose tastes are often biased towards uptempo, especially schlagerish efforts, and who look almost entirely to Western and Central Europe for potential winners. In the past 10 years, 25 of their 30 poll podium places have gone to “culturally” Western European countries, and only on a few occasions have they acknowledged Eastern Europe and post-1993 joining Central European countries, whose nations often end up with very few points if any at all indeed.

The OGAE’s poll coïncided with the actual winner last year, which has lent it a bit more gravitas in the fan media, but we must not forget that it was the first time that happened since 2013, although none of the poll’s winners in the intermediate period had found themselves falling as far from the mark as the likes of previous OGAE winners but ESC flops such as What about my dreams and Hero. Even last year, one of the poll’s podium winners, Monsters, ended up coming second from last in the final.

That being said, I am always interested in statistics and making maps, and it was fun to delve into the OGAE poll results. The geographical split - Italy taking mostly northern countries, Netherlands eastern and Switzerland central - is quite curious, as is the fact that all but one of the countries that didn’t opt for one of the OGAE’s eventual top 3 are located close to each other in Northern Europe. Estonia and Latvia looked left and right respectively to neighbours Sweden and Russia; Finland and the UK were enchanted by Norway; and in a vote that conspicuously snubbed not only the top 3 but also the countries immediately beneath it in the poll, Russia opted for Iceland and a number of countries that had accrued few points.

Mapping out the results, we see an almost complete wipeout of the Balkans, the Baltics and central Europe and a top 5 entirely comprised of countries who joined ESC before 1993. Luckily for the numerous countries left on nul point, more than half of the songs the OGAE leaves on zero not only avoid that fate at the contest but also accrue enough to qualify.

The OGAE’s poll top 3 has never coïncided completely with the real top 3, and every year, a song that had gone below the radar at their poll jumps out for contention. I'm looking forward to seeing how close - or how different - the real results will soon be revealed as being!

[bettyg196]

So... In your opinion…

Which country who got 0 points in OGAE poll 2025 is most likely to succeed in Eurovision Song Contest 2025 ? And why ?

Iceland

Portugal

Azerbaijan

Croatia

Cyprus

Montenegro

Armenia

Georgia

Serbia

Voting ended onMay 4, 2025

[bettyg196]

Ok, I don't expect this poll to be a success but I'm doing it anyway because I'm bored.

Which country from the top 10 of the OGAE poll 2023 is most likely to flop in the contest ?

Sweden

Finland

France

Norway

Austria

Italy

United Kingdom

Czechia

Israel

Spain

Voting ended onMay 5, 2023

[bettyg196]

So... In your opinion...

Which country who got 0 points in OGAE poll 2024 is most likely to succeed in Eurovision Song Contest 2024 ? And why ?

Albania

Czechia

Finland

Germany

Iceland

Ireland

Latvia

Malta

Moldova

Portugal

San Marino

Voting ended onMay 4, 2024