Any theories on papal visits after innocent gets elected? I mean he probably wouldn’t go back to Afghanistan but he might be able to go to, say, Syria? Especially now that Bashar al-Assad isn’t in power anymore and they seem to kinda, sorta be trying to do the democracy and freedom thing?
Hi Anon, this is a great question!
Who and what determines where and when a Pope can go abroad on a Papal visit?
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Where the pope travels and also where he travels first is definitely a major political statement. I leave it to your imagination what type of statements Vincent Benítez would like to make in that sense, and where he would want to go first. But he wouldn’t be totally free in his choice, unfortunately. There are several factors at play here, not just the spiritual needs of Catholic Christians around the world but also international law, the rules of international diplomacy, security concerns and logistical considerations.
A rule of thumb for papal visits to other countries is that they only happen if the host country invites the pope or at least agrees to host him when asked. It would be an odd political statement indeed if the pope tried to impose his presence on any country and its people against its government's will. Even an unloved or incompetent government legally represents its country, and it would be a diplomatic slight of the first order for a foreign head of state to ignore its wishes (and the pope is a head of state, not just a spiritual leader). Much as Innocent XIV would probably have the impulse to drop everything else and run to assist whoever voices a need for his presence, he (and his advisors) would have to keep those considerations in mind.
Both legally and in terms of security, there's also just no way a pope could (safely) visit any country without its government’s cooperation and support. Even if the pope tried to rely only on existing church infrastructure for his itinerary and accommodation etc. rather than making an official state visit, in terms of legal entry and security alone his presence would need local approval. To start with, he would have to fulfil the legal requirements for entering the country (such as applying for a visa, if required by the host country's law). He would also be barred by international law from bringing his own official security personnel (like the Swiss Guards and the Vatican Gendarmerie) because that would violate the host country’s sovereignty. They may be admitted as additional security or as advisors to local law enforcement, but he couldn’t just bring them without the host’s permission. That would be akin to an invasion. And they only number a couple of hundred men anyway, combined - not nearly enough especially in countries where there is a real danger of unrest or terrorist attacks. You'd also have to have specialist local knowledge to assess any such threat correctly. And while the Holy See may be interested in foreign intelligence matters and occasionally employ people for such missions, it technically does not maintain its own secret service or intelligence agency with operatives on the ground in other countries, who could gather such intelligence. A travelling pope is 100 percent dependent on local resources for his protection (and the protection of those who come to see him, which he will feel responsible for, too).
So basically, if a pope isn’t officially invited to a country, or if he asks to visit and the response isn’t unconditional enthusiasm on the part of the host country's government, he doesn’t go.
In the case of Innocent XIV, that means Afghanistan is completely out as long as the Taliban are in power there and as long as they don’t suddenly put religious freedom on their political agenda. Officially, there aren’t even any Christians in the country at all, and there aren’t supposed to be any, either. (More on the persecution of Christians in today’s Afghanistan in my meta on the subject, here.) So a pope would not possibly be welcome there, especially not a pope who has previously operated there in secret for years, right under their noses. I don’t see the Taliban issuing Vincent Benítez with a visa any time soon, let alone cooperate on keeping him safe. He would symbolise everything they oppose. Papal visits are of course often a welcome way for host countries to boost their status in the international community and to be seen as welcoming, open-minded and working towards peace and international cooperation. But the Taliban self-define as being interested in none of these things.
So, what about Syria?
My gut response would be "not yet".
Syria is a multi-religious country including several Christian communities, and yes, the horrible regime of Bashar al-Assad and his cronies has thankfully ended. But Syria is also not yet at peace. Its current president was put into office by an alliance of several (not all) armed resistance movements against the Assad regime, and he still qualified as an Islamist militant at that point. There is still fighting going on among rivalling political, ethnic and religious groups, too; there is still a Russian military presence; and there are occasional airstrikes by the Israeli Defence Forces against targets in Syria. Much of the infrastructure in the country has been destroyed by the civil war, and basic public institutions such as the police and the legal system are only slowly being rebuilt. The interim constitution (projected to be in force for the next 5 years) theoretically guarantees equality before the law for citizens of all faiths and creeds and religious freedom, but offers no explicit recognition of Syria's minority groups (including Kurds, Alawites, Christians, and Druze communities) or protections for them under the law. The international community is currently eyeing Syria very apprehensively as to how seriously the new Syrian government will take even this lukewarm commitment.
As opposed to Taliban-led Afghanistan, Syria may actually be interested in a papal visit to boost its reputation as a modern, pluralistic country. The new Syrian government is looking towards majority-Christian/Western countries for political and economic support to rebuild the country after years of civil war, after all, not just towards its majority-Muslim neighbours. But hosting a papal visit would also create a certain standard or certain expectations of how Syria will approach the question of religious freedom in the future, and who knows whether that suits the current regime. You can’t very well host the pope and then turn a blind eye to churches being bombed or burned, or pass laws that discriminate against Christians and against other faiths and creeds than Sunni Islam.
A papal visit may simply stretch Syria's meagre resources past breaking point, too. Where does a Sunni Muslim leader get enough loyal security personnel willing to protect a Christian dignitary, less than a year after violently toppling the previous dictator in the name of their own one true religion? And how does he pay them, with the country’s finances completely exhausted by the effects of war?
Even if it was in the interest of the current Syrian regime to host a papal visit, which we don’t know, it would probably still be a security nightmare. To get an idea, we can look at Pope Francis's visit to Iraq in March 2021. At that time, the Christian communities in Iraq had been horribly decimated by many years of civil war and Islamist terror, but the actual civil war had been over since 2017 and the 2005 constitution guaranteeing religious freedom was back in force. But even in 2021, the papal visit was seen by many as extremely risky and it remained highly controversial even among the pope's supporters until it was safely over. 10.000 security personnel were employed to keep the pope, his entourage and the attendees of his various church services and other public appearances safe. An Islamist suicide bombing attempt on Francis's life was prevented just in time. Western (specifically, British) intelligence services intercepted those plans, and Iraqi law enforcement identified and killed the attackers before they could strike. (The picture at the top of this meta shows Francis in the ruins of a Catholic church in Mosul/Iraq, destroyed by the Islamic State less than ten years before.) So if it was still this dangerous for Francis in Iraq four whole years after the end of the civil war and de facto Islamist control of parts of the country, I’m not sure it would be wise to suggest to Innocent XIV to travel to Syria any time soon, even if he was invited.
You probably know that Pope Leo is going on a visit to Lebanon later this month! Lebanon is another multi-religious country in the Levante region, but that doesn’t mean the current situation there compares to its neighbour Syria. The population of Lebanon is 40 percent Christian (compared to 10 percent in Syria and less than 1 percent in Iraq), and while the country also suffered a devastating civil war that wrought a lot of destruction and left people very traumatised, this ended in 1990, a generation ago. Recent political and economic developments have not been great, and Lebanon in 2025 is unfortunately less stable and prosperous than it used to be. The Islamist militant organisation Hezbollah effectively controls large portions of southern Lebanon, and the rest of the country is plagued by poverty and corruption. But the country as a whole has not plunged into war or lawlessness. I assume security measures will be extreme just in case, too, but I feel that Leo in Lebanon will not quite compare to Francis in Iraq, and certainly wouldn’t compare to Innocent in Syria.
So this is yet another matter (like the question of Curia reform) where Pope Innocent XIV may want to get ahead much faster than reality will allow him to. Whether this will lead to frustration and depression or to some shocking decisions and innovations, I leave to you, too, Anon.
Got any other questions or suggestions for future metas? My ask box is always open!
