kinda fucked up ofmaths to give me a maths problem where my rough estimate to a related problem (9/20)^4 ~= 4% is actually seemingly the convergent solution for the full problem.
i would say tw maths but if you dont like maths get off my blog
there are two six sided dice. i roll them until i see double sixes and then stop. if i see one six, then i lock it in place and do not reroll it. if i roll them both at the same time, that counts as one roll. (ie, the outcomes 2,3 // 1,6 // 6,6 represent three rolls total).
for each roll i make, i must pass a check with a 9/20 chance of success. in that earlier example i have a (9/20)^3 chance of success.
if i play this game with the willpower to reroll the 2d6 as many times as needed to see double sixes, and then succeed or fail the related trial, what is my expected winrate?
tw my working out spoilers
