UK Heat Pump Data: Gas Use Drops 90%, and the Right Rate Plan Cuts Peak Draw in Half
What actually happens to the energy bill when a house swaps a gas boiler for a heat pump? Four economists measured it with real utility data instead of guessing. NBER Working Paper 33036 (Bernard, Hackett, Metcalfe, and Schein, 2024) tracked UK households through the conversion using data from Octopus Energy.
The results: gas consumption down roughly 90%. Electricity up 61%. Total household energy consumption down about 40%. Emissions fell 36% in the first year, with lifetime savings around 68% as the grid gets cleaner.
The part worth stealing for your own house: the rate plan experiment. Octopus runs a time-of-use tariff built for heat pump homes, with cheap windows outside the evening peak. Households on it cut peak-hour electricity draw roughly in half by preheating during the cheap windows and coasting through the expensive ones. A smart thermostat handles the scheduling. And the shifting held up on the coldest days of winter, which is when grid operators worry most.
Translation: what a heat pump costs to run depends on your electricity rate almost as much as the hardware. Pair the install with the right tariff and a scheduled thermostat, and you're playing a different game than your neighbor on a flat rate. Most California households are already on time-of-use rates whether they've noticed or not.
Bonus finding: the UK's heat pump subsidy returned about £1.24 in value per pound spent, useful ammunition in the rebate-funding fights happening on this side of the Atlantic too.
The usual caveats: UK homes run hydronic radiators off boilers, the housing stock is older and leakier, and a British cold snap is a mild week in Minneapolis. Exact percentages won't map one-to-one onto a US furnace-and-AC changeout. The direction holds, though, and the rate-plan lesson travels just fine.
The paper: NBER Working Paper 33036.
The installer's take, including how to bring rate plans into the sales conversation: ServiceMag













