#trav does math

[bi-nerds]

Championship Standings and Eliminations - Qatar GP

WDC: Despite facing elmination in Qatar, both Verstappen and Piastri remain in contention in Abu Dhabi.

Norris can win:

If he finishes on the podium

If he's P4 or P5, and Verstappen is P2 or lower

If he's P6 or P7, and both Verstappen and Piastri are P2 or lower

If he's P8, Verstappen is P3 or lower, and Piastri is P2 or lower

If he's P9, Verstappen is P4 or lower, and Piastri is P2 or lower

If he's P10, Verstappen is P4 or lower, and Piastri is P3 or lower

If he doesn't score points, provided Verstappen is P5 or lower, and Piastri is P3 or lower

Verstappen can win:

If he's P1, and Norris is P4 or lower

If he's P2, Norris is P8 or lower, and Piastri is P2 or lower

If he's P3, Norris is P9 or lower, and Piastri is P2 or lower

Note: he cannot win if he is P4 or below

Piastri can win:

If he's P1, and Norris is P6 or lower

If he's P2, Norris is P10 or lower, and Verstappen is P4 or lower

Note: he cannot win if he is P3 or below

WCC: Ferrari and Williams have clinched P4 and P5, respectively.

Red Bull can take 2nd if they outscore Mercedes by 33 points, which would require either a P2 and P3, or one driver to win provided the other finishes P6 or higher.

[bi-nerds]

Championship Standings and Eliminations - Las Vegas GP

WDC: Russell and Leclerc have officially secured 4th and 5th in the WDC, respectively, with neither able to move up or down at all.

Norris, Piastri, and Verstappen are currently all still in contention to win, however that can change in Qatar. No matter what, Norris cannot win in the sprint, but he can clinch in the GP if he:

Outscores Piastri by 2 or more points (across the entire weekend) - unless Norris wins the GP, in which case he just needs to outscore Piastri by 1 point, and

Outscores Verstappen by 1 or more points - unless Verstappen wins the GP, in which case Norris needs to outscore him by 2 points

If Norris outscores only one of Piastri or Verstappen by the appropriate amount, that driver will be eliminated, even if Norris does not clinch the title.

WCC: Mercedes are getting close to clinching 2nd in the WCC, which they can do in Qatar if they:

Outscore Red Bull by 4 or more points over the entire weekend, and

Are not outscored by Ferrari by more than 10 points

As with Norris, it will not be possible for them to clinch in the sprint.

Notes: - I believe I did the best and worst finishing positions calculations correctly, accounting for the fact that multiple drivers cannot finish in the same position. However there are 670 billion scoring possibilities in each GP and 5 billion in each sprint; so it's possible I missed a scenario or two that may change them slightly... If I made a mistake, I'm fairly certain it would only affect Albon and Williams. - My apologies for missing Brazil, my driver fucked it into the wall and then got a penalty that apparently upset the GPDA more than his own team; so I needed a week off...

[bi-nerds]

Championship Standings and Eliminations - Mexico GP

WDC: There were no eliminations in the WDC this race, with Russell remaining in contention. To remain in contention after Brazil, he will need to outscore Norris by 15 points and Piastri by 16. For him to win the championship, he would need to win every race from now on, and hope that Norris scores no more than 17 points, Piastri no more than 18, and Verstappen no more than 53 over all remaining races.

Despite Norris retaking the lead in WDC by one point, Piastri remains ahead in number of wins. This means that whichever McLaren scores the most points in Brazil will walk away with the lead, even if Piastri only outscores Norris by 1 point. The singular exception to this would be if Norris scores 0 in the sprint and wins the race, while Piastri wins the sprint and comes 2nd in the race. In that case, both drivers would end the weekend on 382 points and tied on 7 wins. Norris would then be ahead on 2nd place countback, with 8 to Piastri's 4.

It is not currently possible for a driver to clinch before Abu Dhabi simply by winning everything. If Norris were to win everything and Piastri come 2nd in everything, they would go into Abu Dhabi separated by 24 points, making it technically possible for Piastri to win in the final race.

WCC: Ferrari outscored Mercedes just enough to retake 2nd by 1 point, and while Red Bull did outscore Mercedes, it was only by 1 point (I'm sensing a 1 point theme here...). This means that once again, 2nd place is on offer for all three teams:

Ferrari needs to outscore or tie with Mercedes, and not be outscored by 10 or more points by Red Bull to retain 2nd

Mercedes needs to outscore Ferrari by any amount and not be outscored by Red Bull by 9 or more points to retake 2nd

Red Bull needs to outscore Ferrari by at least 10 points and Mercedes by at least 9 to move up to 2nd

Williams is also officially out of the fight for 2nd, and will now have to settle for a best possible finish of 5th.

Note: the best and worst finishing positions are rough calculations, and assume that multiple drivers can finish in the same position. Obviously this is not possible, but there are 670 billion scoring possibilities in each GP and 5 billion in each sprint; so it's not exactly practical to figure out the true best and worst positions. (If you're interested, there are 2 billion billion, or 2 quintillion finishing possibilities per race...)

[bi-nerds]

Championship Standings and Eliminations - United States GP

WDC: Despite outscoring Piastri in both the sprint and main race, Leclerc was not able to score enough to remain in contention. Russell is at risk of being eliminated next race in Mexico, if Piastri outscores him by 22 points. This would require Piastri to win and Russell to finish 9th or below.

I've added a new calculation: the best and worst possible finishing position. Interestingly, despite being 5th and 6th in the standings, the best Leclerc could finish is 2nd, while Hamilton could go manage 4th. Piastri is guaranteed to finish 4th or better, thus ensuring that he will at least tie his best finishing position (4th, in 2024). With 141 points remaining, there is considerable potential for movement towards the back of the grid, with 15 drivers being able to finish anywhere in the final 15 positions.

WCC: There was no change in the WCC this week, but the battle for 2nd is getting tighter, with Red Bull scoring more points than Ferrari, who scored more points than Mercedes. There is considerable potential for movement between these team next week in Mexico:

Mercedes will retain 2nd provided they don't lose more than 7 points to Ferrari and 9 points to Red Bull

Ferrari will retake 2nd if they outscore Mercedes by 8 points and don't lose more than 2 points to Red Bull

Red Bull will take 2nd if they outscore Mercedes by 10 points and Ferrari by 3

There are two clear groups forming here: Mercedes to Red Bull, with possible finishing positions between 2nd and 5th; and Racing Bulls and below, with possible finishing positions between 5th and 10th. Williams is alone in the middle, with the possibility of finishing anywhere between 2nd and 10th.

[bi-nerds]

Championship Standings and Eliminations - Singapore GP

WCC: McLaren's 3-4 was more than enough for them to clinch the constructors championship - in fact either drivers finishing position would have been sufficient to clinch the title. Not only was McLaren able to clinch with 6 races to go, tying Red Bull's 2023 record; but they have enough points that even when separating the drivers they would be P1 and P3 in the WCC (Piastri, Mercedes, Norris).

McLaren is also still on track to beat Red Bull's points record of 860 points. The soonest they could do so would be in the Qatar Sprint.

WDC: There were no eliminations in WDC, and very few changes in position.

The soonest Piastri could clinch the title is now the Brazil GP. This would require that Norris scores no more than 30 points and Verstappen scores no more than 71 points between now and the end of the race.

If Piastri were to win everything between now and the Brazil Sprint while Norris scored 0 points, followed by Norris winning everything for the remainder of the season and Piastri scoring 0, then they would tie on points and on wins. Norris would end up winning on count-back with 7 2nd places vs Piastri's 3. Ignore this, Norris would finish on 422 points and Piastri on 402. My dyslexia got me on this one, and I read them as the same number…

If Piastri wins every GP (and scores 0 in all sprints), he would clinch in the Qatar GP, even if Norris comes 2nd in every GP and wins every sprint.

If Verstappen were to win every race, and Piastri finished 3rd in all races, then Verstappen would win in Abu Dhabi by 3 points. Consequently, so long as Piastri finishes top 3 in all remaining races, and Verstappen has one result of 2nd or worse, Verstappen will not be able to win. Edit: This is true if the result of 2nd or worse is in a GP. In a sprint, the same would happen if he finished 5th or worse (a 4th place could tie Piastri on points, if Piastri finished 3rd in every race; and Verstappen would end up with 10 wins, beating Piastri's 7 on countback).

[bi-nerds]

Championship Standings and Eliminations- Azerbaijan GP

WDC: Hamilton has been mathematically eliminated from contention - even if he wins every remaining race he cannot score more points than Piastri currently has.

With his DNF in Baku, the soonest Piastri could clinch the title would be in the Brazil Sprint. This would require Norris score no more than 8 points and Verstappen score no more than 52 points between now and the end of the sprint.

If Piastri wins every race (GP and Sprint), he would clinch in Vegas, even if Norris comes 2nd in everything.

Verstappen winning every race is not sufficient to guarantee the title, as need to outscore Piastri by 9.86 pt/race and Norris by 6.29 pt/race. Consequently, if Verstappen wins every race and Piastri comes 2nd in all, then Piastri would win in Abu Dhabi by 18 points.

WCC: Despite Red Bull's 1-6 and McLaren's 7-DNF, Red Bull did not outscore McLaren enough to remain in contention, and they were mathematically eliminated. With the poor results in Baku, the maximum points McLaren can now score is 969, so they can not surpass the 1000 point line; however they can still break the record for most points in a season (860, set by Red Bull in 2023).

McLaren can clinch in Singapore, provided they are not outscored by Mercedes by more than 30 points or Ferrari by more than 34 points. With a maximum of 43 points on offer, this is guaranteed to happen provided they score at least 13 points. This could happen by:

1 driver finishing on the podium, even if the other does not score points

A 4th place finish, provided the other is 10th or higher

A 5th place finish, provided the other is 8th or higher

Finishing 6th and 7th

[bi-nerds]

Championship Standings and Eliminations- Italian GP

WDC: 2 more drivers (Antonelli and Albon) were mathematically eliminated from contention - even if they win every remaining race they cannot score more points than Piastri currently has.

The soonest Piastri can clinch is now Mexico, which could happen if he wins every race, and Norris scores no more than 22 points and Verstappen no more than 85 over the next 4 races.

If Piastri were to win every GP (and score 0 in sprints), and Norris were to come 2nd in every GP and win every sprint, Piastri would fall one point short of clinching in Vegas. If Norris were to finish 2nd or lower in at least one sprint or 3rd or lower in a GP; or Piastri were to score at least one point in a sprint, then Piastri could clinch in Vegas.

If the top 3 in Monza finish in the same order (Verstappen 1st, Norris 2nd, Piastri 3rd) in every remaining race (including sprints), then they would finish the championship in their current order, with Piastri winning on 462 points, Norris on 458, and Verstappen on 454.

WCC: still no more eliminations in the constructors, but it is still very much possible for McLaren to clinch next race Baku. To achieve that, Mclaren need to:

Outscore Ferrari by at least 10 points

Not be outscored by Mercedes by 11 or more points

Not be outscored by Red Bull by 32 or more points

They are guaranteed to achieve this with either a 1-2 or a 1-3, no matter what the other teams do. Other finishing positions would be possible, but are not guaranteed (depending on the results of other teams).

It is also still possible for McLaren to break the 1000 point mark, but the margins are getting tighter, as their maximum tally is now only 6 points higher. This means they would have to win every race (including sprints), and have all 1-2 finishes except for either two 1-3's or one 1-4 or worse.

[bi-nerds]

Championship Standings and Eliminations- Dutch GP

WDC: 10 more drivers were mathematically eliminated from contention - even if they win every remaining race they cannot score more points that Piastri currently has.

The soonest Piastri can clinch is COTA, if Norris scores 0 points and Verstappen scores less than 71 in the next 4 races.

If Piastri were to win every GP, he would clinch in Vegas no matter what Norris does (even if Norris were to win the COTA and Brazil sprints, and Piastri scored 0 in them).

If Piastri were to win every race (GP and Sprint), he would clinch in Brazil provided Norris finishes 3rd in at least two races or 4th or below in at least one race.

WCC: there were no eliminations in the constructor's championship this race, with half the field being eliminated last time out in Hungary. Even with Norris' DNF, McLaren can still break 1000 points, and owing to Ferrari's double DNF, they continue with more than double the points of 2nd place.

The soonest McLaren can clinch is still Baku, which they will be guaranteed to do with either 2 1-2's or a 1-2 and a 1-3 in Monza and Baku. As Baku is the 17th round, they would clinch 70.83% of the way through the season, which would be the 6th fastest ever, behind 1961 Ferrari, 1988 McLaren, 1960 Cooper, and 1963 and 65 Lotus; and ahead of teams like 2004 Ferrari and 2023 Red Bull.