#ucl jon

[thelawyerthatwaspromised]

“You’re right...”

S6/E9 “The Battle of the Bastards” S7/E3 “The Queen’s Justice”

[fedonciadale]

I like the idea of ​​political jon and undercover jon, although I have to admit that I like the idea of ​​undercover jon more, because in the theories that I have seen, he at least has a plan, political jon sounds more like jon is acting as time goes by, and it sounds more like reactionary jon, rather than a king acting politically, with a long term plan that benefits his nation, but that is my point of view. in my opinion he was not even responsible for making dany decide to go north, because

(2) it was cersei and her promise that she was going to help them that made dany go north, the only thing he did when dany said she was not sure What to do, was to say we are fuck. I see undercover Jon, not as a person who decided to betray Dany from the beginning, but more that he saw her attraction for him and decided to use it in his favor, he knelt because he knew that the North would not support him and neither he was going to force them to do it, and he knew that that was going to keep dany  

(3) more enthusiastic (I do not think Jon thinks he can convince them, or that an agreement can be reached, I think Jon was sincere when he said that his people were not going to support a southern queen) and was planning to sleep with her from the moment she said she wasn’t sure to help them, to see if her feelings for him were enough to convince her. the only thing that worries me about both theories is that he knows dany was raped and sold, and I don’t know if he would be able to use a woman          

(4) after knowing that, and in both theories he is doing it.            

Dear nonny,

if I understand you correctly, you would distinguish between ‘Undercover’ and ‘Political’ and maybe ‘Sacrificial’  Jon. ‘Undercover’ would be Jon in cohots with Sansa and a plan to go undercover, seduce Da€nerys for her dragons. ‘Political’ would be Jon having as a main goal to the the dragons and adapting to the problem, that he has to somehow persuade Da€nerys to commit to a cause despite her being all about ‘bend the knee’. ‘Sacrificial’ Jon would be Jon not giving a fuck about what happens to him, since he thinks he’ll die anyway. He’ll sacrifice anything, his own honour, the independence of the North, just as long as the North and Winterfell are protected.

You seem to be somewhere between undercover and political. I myself am somewhere between political and sacrificial. I don’t think that Jon planned on going undercover or seducing Da€nerys, and I’m quite certain he didn’t make a secret plan with Sansa. Sansa’s face when he told everyone he would leave did not look like it would have if Jon had spoken to her imho.

I think he gave Da€nerys the benefit of the doubt and decided to treat with her in person to give her a ‘partial payment’ of trust, not because he trusted her, but probably because he trusted Tyrion. This was a bold move and not unlike his move in the Karstark/Umber case. Sometimes to earn trust you have to give trust. It’s a gamble, but Jon does gamble, he did also gamble in his negotiations with the Freefolk, in books and show, and it payed off.

His trust was betrayed at Dragonstone. Da€nerys demanded bending the knee, his ship was taken and there was no indication that she would let him leave any time soon. She allowed him to mine for dragonglass, so he might have had some hope to still  persuade her. So, instead of throwing a tantrum, he brooded on the cliffs, voiced his longing for home, and then made another attempt to persuade Da€nerys. @thelawyerthatwaspromised made an excellent post on how Jon learns from Da€nerys’ entourage and how he ups the level of persuasion in each episode, until he finally knocks at her door.

I do think that Jon does not expect to stay KitN, he signed his last letter as ‘warden’ after all, probably knowing that his correspondence is read by others. So, he probably expects, that all Da€nerys gets from her promise to help him is his personal allegiance - an allegiance he fully plans to hold to imho, only the RLJ reveal will come into it.

As for Da€nerys I would say, she has different priorities than Jon. The whole time, Jon wanted to convince her that his priority for the living is the only one that counts. And as I see it, she still is not fully committed by the last episode. When Jon woke up on that ship in episode 6, he knew they were heading south, knew that Da€nerys was still bent on getting that truce, and at the Dragonpit meeting he realised that they are ‘fucked’. I think he would have avoided publically declaring for Da€nerys, but Cersei left him no choice but to be open about it. He couldn’t lie about that and still keep Da€nerys’ trust. He didn’t want the truce. For him the meeting at Dragonpit was pointless, because he doesn’t trust Cersei anyway.

So, now after they get the truce (which is no truce at all, because Cersei will go behind their backs), Da€nerys finally is free to pursue Jon’s priority and Jon tries to ensure that she stays enlisted so to say. But they still don’t have the same priorities! Jon doesn’t care about the war in the South and we will see next season what will happen if Da€nerys learns about Cersei and the GC.... Guess what, their priorities will differ again.

So, does that mean Jon uses Da€nerys for her dragons: Yes, it does. He is just like all the other suitors that want her dragons, just like all the men who wanted her hand in the books, Xaro, Hizdahr, Quentyn.... etc. It is foreshadowed in the books, when Jon contemplates in ASOS how useful dragons would be in defending the wall.

Is he capable of doing that, even knowing that she was used in the past? I would say yes. He was capable of using Ygritte. He rode with the wildlings, sang with them, slept with Ygritte, stayed with them climbing the wall (which was the one goal that was identical with Ygritte’s goals) and then he left them. Did Ygritte deserve that? Probably not. Do people in ASOIAF get what they deserve? I’d suggest you ask Ned or Robb or Catelyn about that. Would Jon be the villain if we had Ygritte’s  PoV? Probably. I would say the only difference to the Ygritte situation is, that Jon does not plan on betraying Da€nerys, at least not as far as his own personal allegiance goes.

But won’t she feel betrayed anyway, when the North wavers in his loyalty to someone who is after all not Ned’s bastard son, but a Targ, someone who ‘sold’ their independence for some dragons? Will Da€nerys not feel betrayed in any case, whatever Jon’s intention, if she is suddenly short one kingdom and in exchange ‘gained’ a nephew with a claim to the Iron Throne that is stronger than hers? I think it will play out like that. Da€nerys will think that Jon knew all along about RLJ.

Does Da€nerys deserve being betrayed and used like that? That’s a difficult question, I think. She fully expects someone who is her prisoner to kneel to her? She fully expects the people of Westeros who ousted the Targaryens for very valid reasons to hail her as the new queen? She is very naive in the sense that she doesn’t think things through, she never thinks about consequences, she is a volatile narcist with occasional bouts of benevolence and all in all a very dangerous person. Does that mean she ‘deserves’ to be betrayed? Honestly, I dont know, and I fully expect GRRM to tell the three treasons that are in tow for her from her PoV, so that the reader can see how all the foreshadowing unfolds, have pity on her and shudder at what she’ll do after the treasons. This would imho make for very satisfying story telling, even if Jon would not be the honourable fool everyone in Westeros (and in the fandom) thinks him to be..... He is not by the way. Certainly not in the books, but also not in the show, if you look closely.

In a way, Jon may have had benevolent reasons to save the free Folk, to spare Karstark and Umber, but he has also very sound political reasons for doing the things he did. The fandom sees a good act and automatically assumes benevolent, morally good reasons behind that. This is why Da€nerys is hailed as an abolutionist, when she is not. She freed the Unsullied not to free them, but to get an army. And Jon saved the free Folk not only to save them, but also to recruit them against the WW and prevent the Others to turn them into wights.

If you think that motives must play a role in judging characters, then it should be noted that Jon is a grey character. All in all his motivations for acting or not acting are thought through, sound and rational, but if you look closely (like with the baby swap in the books), he can also be quite cruel to individuals, if he thinks it will serve the cause of the living, or save lives. He gambles and juggles and tries to save the realm and his family. I think, when he will be resurrected in the books, his focus will be more on saving his family. I think that Jon who bullied Gilly, another abused girl, into giving up her son (in the books) is capable to play a woman whom he thinks has the key to defeating the WW (and who held him prisoner in the show). The twist is, that probably the dragons are not the solution but another problem and that for all his plans, the RLJ reveal will blow up everything.

Thanks for the ask! And sorry, it took me so long. I’m well behind in asks!

[tiny-little-bird]

Looks like Jon is going to bend the knee to Cersei in season 8.

[dangos2]

John Stark and: “Live Free or Die.”

So, this is a meta (I thought it was gonna be small, but it ran away from me- oops) on why I do not believe Jon Snow has actually bent the knee. 

We all know that the Northerners in Game of Thrones- and A Song of Ice and Fire, have fought long and hard for their independence. We know that it was out of character for Jon to bend the knee to a foreign ruler he hardly knew. Thereby sacrificing the North’s hard won independence and his own power. Power he didn’t want, and definitely did not want for his own sake. But power that gave him a greater ability to defend his beloved home, the North, and his family. The same family that he has canonically, in both the show and the books, been shown to abandon honor and duty for in the past. 

We know that A Song of Ice and Fire draws a great deal from history. The weapons, from Valyrian steel to wildfire are based on ancient weapons we have been unable to recreate in the modern day. The struggle for Westeros is specifically meant to mirror The War of the Roses. The First Men = The Celts, The Andals = The Angles and Saxons. A big issue in the series is the conflict between the nobles and the small folk, and a glacially paced transition to a more democratic system. 

So, when I was reading up on the source of my state motto: “Live Free or Die (This is New Hampshire’s motto, for those who don’t know) I was struck by the similarities between General John Stark’s story and Jon Snow’s own story line. And I think it will be hugely ironic if George I’m a Huge History Nerd RR Martin, didn’t base Jon off this guy, at least partially. 

John Stark was born in Londonderry, New Hampshire. When he was a teenager he was captured by a group of Abenaki Native Americans and brought all the way to Quebec, Canada. While there he and another captive were forced to “run the gamut,” as in charge a line of armed warriors. He surprised one of the men, stole his spear and attacked. The Abenaki were reportedly impressed by his bravery and quick thinking and adopted Stark into the tribe. John Stark was ransomed later that year and sent home to his family. 

Later, John Stark fought in the French and Indian War as a member of Roger’s Rangers. He was second in command to Robert Roger and gained a lot of experience fighting in the war. However, when the Rangers were ordered to attack St. Francis, Canada, Stark, refused to join the attack as his Native American foster parents resided in St. Francis. He instead, returned home to his wife. 

 John Stark later fought at Bunker Hill and reached the rank of Brigadier General in the Continental Army. He later resigned his post because he was disgusted that a less experienced general got a promotion over him. Then he accepted a post here in New Hampshire as Brigadier General, but only on the condition of, wait for it:

Not having to ever answer to Continental Army authorities. (Gosh, I really like this guy) He served with distinction in the battle of Saratoga and became a war hero for his work and famous rallying cry: "There are your enemies, the Red Coats and the Tories. They are ours, or this night Molly Stark sleeps a widow!"

Our motto comes from a letter he wrote to his comrades after his retirement saying, “Live free or die: Death is not the worst of evils.” 

In short: this guy was a badass.   

But, can you see now where I’m going with this? They both grew up in a northern state. They both were captured by and adopted by a people living in what could easily be called the far north. They both learned to respect those people and then later fought against those same people. However, when push came to shove both Jon Snow and John Stark could not forget their love and respect for their foster family. They both served as member of a rangers group and were disgusted by the politics that plagued their society.  

Also, JOHN STARK.

So, for Jon Snow to bend the knee to someone who does not truly know his people- regardless of whether they help with an overwhelming threat, have a technical right to rule, or the best of intentions, it would be a huge departure from his characterization. Whether he has any affection, like many non-Tory colonists did for Great Britain, for this aforesaid foreign power it would be enormously strange for him to bend the knee. 

But- it would not be out of character for Jon to act the fool. To lie. To gain the trust of his current enemy. Like he did with the Wildlings. Like he did with Stannis.

For him to bend the knee, it would take either a horrific and deliberate character assignation by the writers, a bout of canonical insanity, or shrewd calculation on Jon’s part that a lie is necessary in order for him to get what he wants. If Jon Snow has really bent the knee I can guarantee you, it won’t be for long.

(Also, sudden, idea. Ghost is supposed to be a metaphor for Jon. And Ghost not only has weirwood coloring (in other words he is Northern to the bone), but additionally, a white coat on a wolf also kinda reminds you of the phrase “A wolf in sheep’s clothing.” doesn’t it?)

"If we die, we'll die, but first, we'll live."―Ygritte to Jon Snow.[src]

  There is no way in all the the Seven Hells that Jon has bent the knee. 

He might die, but, first, he’ll live free.

[kitten1618x]

Just something I've been thinking about since the s7 finale: that look Jon gives Daenerys when they're having sex. When they stop kissing and he stares at her. It's so strange. He's not in love. We've seen Jon snow in love and it looked nothing like that. He looked upset to me. It's kind of what sealed the deal for me on believing that Jon is finally playing dirty politics. He's manipulating Daenerys and isn't happy about it (hence the look) but he knows he has to

See Nonny, and this is why I feel strongly about what @occupyvenus calls marg!jon (i think?). lol

Because Jon isn’t a ruthless shit -he has a conscience, and I think he would feel conflicted over taking advantage of someone’s feelings for him. But I do think he’d still do it -especially with the North and humanity on the line.

I mean, we could be wrong -of course NONE of us know what’s going to unfold for sure …but considering the all-around oddness of season 7, something just ain’t passing the smell test, and people are trying to make sense of it.

It’s a long wait to season 8, Nonny! 😳 lol

[thelawyerthatwaspromised]

“But Sansa Lied to Jon!!!!”

As a person that believes very firmly that Jonsa is the most logical, poetic, and satisfying way to end the GoT/ASOIAF series, the push back against the Jonsa theory is often centered on some criticism of Sansa’s character. She’s also been the subject of innumerable theories regarding her loyalty to the Starks in general and Jon in particular.

The evidence (show wise) presented commonly points out her failure to tell Jon about the Knights of the Vale before the Battle of the Bastards or for not even telling Jon how she knew that the Blackfish had retaken Riverrun. 

I used to answer that it was a mistake that Sansa made and that Jon made it abundantly clear that he had forgiven her for these supposed transgressions so that, essentially, if it doesn’t matter to the characters then it shouldn’t “matter” to the audience in terms of judging whether Jon and Sansa have potential for a romantic future, and yet I now believe that only tells half the story. I still point to Jon’s forgiveness of her as dispositive proof that Jon doesn’t hold it against Sansa in the slightest - but I’m going to expand on why even the AUDIENCE shouldn’t hold it against Sansa.

I feel like a criticism of Sansa is the result of a significant failure to understand Sansa’s state of mind, a failure to understand what Sansa (rightfully) thinks of LF, and finally the VERY GOOD REASONS why Sansa didn’t want to tell Jon about LF.

[check under the cut]

Sansa’s State of Mind:

How easily people forget what Sansa was forced to endure BECAUSE OF LITTLEFINGER. 

She was used as a pawn by LF to marry Ramsay. Maybe he didn’t know how evil Ramsay was when he arranged the marriage. It doesn’t even matter. He manipulated Sansa into the idea. He already had planned to “ride to her rescue” (putting Sansa in another Lyanna parallel) without telling Sansa except Sansa took initiative (with an assist from Theon) and escaped before he could carry out his plans.

So LF hears about Sansa’s escape and tries to arrange a meeting with her. Everything you need to know about how Sansa feels about LF is revealed in the scene in Mole’s Town.

This was as much about Sansa wanting the opportunity to tell LF off as anything. LF surprises her a bit, though, when he tells her that the Vale is prepared to ride to her aid. He also makes her think about whether Jon and his Freefolk are enough to defeat Ramsay.

The scene ends with Sansa telling LF she NEVER wants to see him again. Remember that line. In response, LF tries to plant another seed of doubt in Sansa’s mind about Jon - making sure she hears that Jon is only her “half brother”.

Sansa never wants to see LF or acknowledge that he is a part of her story. She’s ashamed of any association she has with him. She wants to forget him because she now links him with Ramsay in her mind permanently. The evidence is the scene with Jon, Davos, and company making a plan to take back Winterfell where Sansa withholds how she learned about Blackfish retaking Riverrun.

Which Brienne calls her out on...and Sansa doesn’t really respond.

There are two reasons why someone would withhold an association from somebody: they are scheming against somebody or they are ashamed. Sansa doesn’t look angry at Brienne because Sansa’s mind is on the fact that she lied to Jon because of her shame.

Sansa hates her association with LF in light of meeting Jon. Jon immediately promised to watch over her, to go where she goes. She FINALLY has a connection that matters. If you were in Sansa’s shoes and you FINALLY have someone that is willing to show you dedication and love, would you want them to know that you are receiving help from someone you despise and you KNOW Jon will despise? Her shame of LF (and herself for ever using him to help her cause with Jon) causes her silence. How do I know this? Precisely because of the pattern Sansa shows AFTER Brienne questions her in this scene.

“HALF Brother” aka “How Sansa Reacts to Littlefinger’s Continued Manipulation Attempts”

At this point...Sansa tries everything in her power to NEVER SEE LITTLEFINGER AGAIN. She also immediately claims Jon as a Stark visually for the world to see. This is her own personal answer to Littlefinger’s games. In her mind, she’s already decided that he is wrong about Jon.

Sansa finds Jon and feels good. LF tries to plant doubt in Sansa about Jon. Sansa claims Jon unofficially.

Sequencing matters.

She specifically is attempting to do this without LF’s help. She travels to Bear Island with Jon. Her status as a Stark is questioned. She goes with Jon to meet Lord Glover. Again, her status as a Stark is questioned...and help is refused. Through no true fault of their own, Sansa and Jon are faced with serious roadblocks in building the army they need to defeat Ramsay and re-capture Winterfell. It becomes obvious that Jon and Sansa as a team just haven’t gathered enough men.

Sansa tells him repeatedly that they don’t have enough. It’s a point of contention for the audience with Sansa. My evidence that it was never because she was making some elaborate plan to have Jon killed is pretty straightforward:

1) She begged Jon to wait longer to march on WF so they could make another round to try and rally support in the North. If she wanted Jon to be overwhelmed and didn’t care if he died, it wouldn’t make any sense to beg that he delay so they can gather a stronger force WITHOUT LITTLEFINGER. Jon refuses to relent, though, knowing Rickon is alive and believing that he can save his brother.

2) She only asked Littlefinger for help AFTER it became clear that Jon wasn’t going to delay the attack. If her plan existed in any other form that was devious for Jon, she would have already had it figured out with Littlefinger.

Sansa recognizes that this is not shaping up to be a battle they can win. Jon responds that “where can we get more men!?” Sansa doesn’t respond that LF and the Knights could help. Because Jon is so aggressive, Sansa shows a very obvious sadness that she is now in a position of asking a person that cannot be trust for help. She hates feeling as if she must as LF for help...while also simultaneously realizing she can’t expect Jon alone to protect her. She MUST take an active role in protecting him as well.

Never a bad reason to show these two huffing and puffing as Sansa realizes that Jon can’t do this alone. 

So so so SOOOOOOO often this is used as damning evidence against Sansa. Why wouldn’t she tell him? Why would she hold back? Did she want him to die?

All of these inquiries completely miss a huge point: SANSA KNOWS HOW DANGEROUS LF CAN BE. 

She has no idea if he’ll help - but even if he does? She completely has her eyes on the danger LF presents to Westeros and to Jon. She knows LF wants everything. I’m positive she has a suspicion that he wants her too. Where would this leave Jon? Is LF a good person for herself and Jon to be indebted to?

The point of Sansa’s campaign with Jon around the North was an attempt by Sansa to keep from EVER needing or SEEING Littlefinger ever again. Ultimately, she identifies that it’s something she HAS to do.

She knows the stakes after interacting with Ramsay.

And she follows through on her promise to Ramsay that he is going to die.

But here’s where we see that SANSA WAS RIGHT.

Littlefinger DOES become a problem.

First, he tries to come onto Sansa AGAIN. It’s become known to her what he is after. LF wants the North and he wants Sansa and Jon stands in the way of both of these goals. She did NOT wants this. How do I know she didn’t want this?

Her visible discomfort as Jon is telling her that she is the only reason why the Battle of the Bastards resulted in their victory. It is the focus of the camera.

She tells Jon herself that only a fool would trust Littlefinger. She hated herself for being in the position to ask Littlefinger for help. She never wanted to see him again. She felt like a fool asking for his help in the first place! Which leads to...

Sansa apologizes for doing what had to be done to win the battle. This isn’t a point for Sansa fans to stand a cheer and point out how stupid and incapable Jon is either. Because Sansa detests Littlefinger as much as Jon does. She contemplated having Brienne kill him in Mole’s Town. She blames him for her marriage to Ramsay. But ultimately Sansa decided that Jon winning the battle was more important than her personal vendetta against Littlefinger.

In my opinion she rightfully assessed that Jon wouldn’t accept Littlefinger’s help (adding to the fact that she didn’t want it in the first place) because Jon specifically brings up that Sansa was sold to the Boltons by Littlefinger before she begins to talk about him.

It all points to Sansa struggling with the idea that she TRIED with Jon to rally the forces they needed to defeat Ramsay but, with survival on the line, she was forced to enlist LF’s help knowing full well the problems he was going to cause for them. 

Sansa regrets that she had to ask for help from somebody that she hates and wanted to avoid ever interacting with ever again.

Sansa’s now asked Jon’s forgiveness for not telling him. If she was scheming for power over him, there’s no scenario in which she wouldn’t demand that HE acknowledge her role in winning the battle. No, she’s guilt-stricken. And Jon’s reaction is what lifts her out of it.

There is no hint of bitterness from Jon. There is not doubt of Sansa’s loyalties. The way Jon responds to Sansa’s apology is how someone would deal with an apology from a person who’s been hurt and betrayed and closed themselves off as a defense mechanism...which is a feeling in Sansa that Jon desperately wants to break. He wants her to see them as a team. As a pair that can shares in each other’s joys and lessen each other’s burdens.

This isn’t Jon saying “tell me battle plans!” or “Sansa we have to be on the same page if we are gonna do this!” this is Jon saying “I get it. Let me share in your struggles, Sansa.”

This is Jon acknowledging that he couldn’t have captured Winterfell on his own and further that he needs her just as much as she might need him.

Finally in the end, Sansa was right.

This won’t even cover the practical effects of Sansa not telling Jon about LF (like the fact that it could have altered the battle plans in Ramsay’s favor) because that analysis is much more subjective with regard to what Sansa did or didn’t know about the battle. It’s focused on the personal reasons for Sansa not telling Jon about LF’s offer for help.

The idea that Sansa viewed LF as an undesirable threat against Jon and Winterfell? That’s much easier to prove in Sansa’s favor.

1) Jon Would Have Reacted Violently To LF’s Help

Jon couldn’t contain his emotions when it came to Sansa. LF picked up on it. Had Jon stayed, LF’s plotting would have revolved around killing Jon and/or placing him in the same position Robb was in when he was betrayed by his own bannermen. AFTER ONE CONVERSATION JON DOES THIS.

Confirmed.

2) Littlefinger’s Would Create A Problem That Only Sansa Could Solve (a game she never wanted to be forced to play)

“He’s a dangerous man. But even the most dangerous men can be outmaneuvered. And you’ve learned to maneuver from the very best.”

This is exactly what happened...except Littlefinger never imagined that he was talking about himself.

Confirmed.

3) Littlefinger’s Capability At Reading People Would Pose Problems For Sansa Personally

Sansa knows LF wants her at his side. She feels no personal danger from him. Her fear is for Jon. In a telling fashion, LF’s last scene before his execution has him prodding Sansa about her feelings with regard to Jon.

While Sansa detests Littlefinger, she now needs to resolve the situation where she can both 1) retain the loyalty of his forces; AND 2) protect Jon’s standing as KitN since she knows that is ultimately what he’s after. When she enlisted his help, she knew this would be a consequence...and one that she never desired having to confront in the first place. After the scene with Jon in the crypts, it becomes obvious that Littlefinger is acutely aware of how Jon feels for Sansa and he spends the rest of the season prodding how Sansa feels for Jon. This last scene, this enormously important last scene, tells us that he identifies their bond with each other and that a ROMANTIC rivalry is the only thing that could place himself in a position where he could pit Jon and Sansa against each other. 

Littlefinger realized that it was never about power for Sansa. It was about Jon. 

Conclusion: Sansa never wanted LF’s help. He enabled her abuse at the hands of Ramsay. She knew he did it out of a warped sense of love. She also realized that was a threat to Jon. She never wanted him involved in the first place and asking for his help felt like surrender to her. Yet she handled the fallout in a way that allows her (and Jon) to keep the Vale’s loyalty while eliminating Jon’s biggest potential threat that Sansa has any control over.

All along, Sansa not telling Jon about LF or the Vale was due to her desire to succeed without his help  along with her shame at being associated with someone that she hates and someone she knows Jon hates. The proof is in her last interaction with Littlefinger. 

Wherein Sansa finally gets the chance to announce to the world that Littlefinger betrayed her. She doesn’t forget. Jon doesn’t forget. These aren’t the Starks that Littlefinger is used to dealing with. They remember. The North remembers.

“Wind and words. We are only human, and the gods have fashioned us for love. That is our great glory, and our great tragedy.”

[thelawyerthatwaspromised]

Beric:  “I'm not fighting so some man or woman I barely know can sit on a throne made of swords.”

...

Jon: “I am the shield that guards the realms of men.”

Beric: “Maybe we don’t need to understand any more than that. Maybe that’s enough.”

Jon: “Aye. Maybe that’s enough.”

S7xE6, Beyond the Wall

[fedonciadale]

Cersei Lannister and Aurane Waters - A Parallel to Political Jon in A Feast for Crows

First a shout-out to @lady-in-a-song (used to be @marydri) for alerting me to this nice parallel! Hope you like what I made of it!

Ever since political Jon was first offered as an explanation for Jon Snow’s ooc behaviour in season 7 people have come up with more and more evidence from the books. And guess what: there is another one. It’s in Cersei’s chapters in AFFC. At the end of her arc in AFFC Cersei is betrayed by the man she made her grand admiral:

"They let Taena go." That was the best thing she had heard since the High Sparrow had said no. Taena could have doomed her. "What of Lord Waters? His ships . . . if he brings his crews ashore, he should have enough men to..."

"As soon as word of Your Grace's present troubles reached the river, Lord Waters raised sail, unshipped his oars, and took his fleet to sea. Ser Harys fears he means to join Lord Stannis. Pycelle believes that he is sailing to the Stepstones, to set himself up as a pirate."

"All my lovely dromonds." Cersei almost laughed. "My lord father used to say that bastards are treacherous by nature. Would that I had listened." She shivered. "I am lost, Qyburn." (AFFC, Cersei X)

So here we have a queen who has been betrayed....

Put under the cut for length.

I don’t think I really need to explain why Cersei’s chapters could foreshadow events in Da€nerys’ arc. But I think it is not immediately obvious, why Aurane Waters, the ‘dashing bastard of the driftmark’ (AFFC, Cersei IV) is a stand-in for Jon Snow. I organised the evidence according to different subjets. Some quotes fit to several subjects, so there might be some quotes I have to repeat.

1) Aurane reminds Cersei of Rhaegar, Jon’s dad

The other cousin, Elinor, was sharing a cup of wine with the handsome young Bastard of Driftmark, Aurane Waters. It was not the first time the queen had made note of Waters, a lean young man with grey-green eyes and long silver-gold hair. The first time she had seen him, for half a heartbeat she had almost thought Rhaegar Targaryen had returned from the ashes. It is his hair, she told herself. He is not half as comely as Rhaegar was. His face is too narrow, and he has that cleft in his chin. (AFFC, Cersei III)

And this one:

Aurane Waters seemed as bored as Cersei by all this prattle about septons. Seen up close, his hair was more silvery than gold, and his eyes were grey-green where Prince Rhaegar's had been purple. Even so, the resemblance . . . (AFFC, Cersei IV)

And another one:

"Your Grace is kind," said Waters with a smile. A wicked smile, the queen thought. Aurane did not resemble Prince Rhaegar as much as she had thought. He has the hair, but so do half the whores in Lys, if the tales are true. Rhaegar was a man. This is a sly boy, no more. Useful in his way, though. (AFFC, Cersei VIII)

So, Aurane Waters resembles Rhaegar, but is not Rhaegar. I would say it is reasonably safe to think that Aurane might serve as a stand-in for Jon.

2) There are allusions to events important for Jon’s arc

"I would think so, my lord," Aurane Waters said dryly. "I am told that removing the head from the body is often mortal." (AFFC, Cersei IV)

This obviously alludes to Ned’s beheading.

The other councillors stared at him uncertainly. "Do you refer to the Red Wedding?" asked Aurane Waters. (AFFC, Cersei IV)

No explanation needed, the Red Wedding is the defining lowpoint for the Starks.

3) There are allusion to the Night’s Watch and Jon’s arc in ADWD

"What would he pay them with?" asked Merryweather [Stannis paying the GC]. "Snow? They are called the Golden Company. How much gold does Stannis have?"

"The Iron Bank will have its due when I say they will. Until such time, the Iron Bank will wait respectfully. Lord Waters, commence the building of your dromonds." (AFFC, Cersei IV)

The Iron Bank is an important part of Jon’s arc in ADWD. I think it very interesting that the ‘coinage’ named here is ‘snow’, escpecially if you look at the corresponding tidbit in ADWD:

"Gold?" Are those the dragons the red woman means to wake? Dragons made of gold?” "Such taxes as we collect are paid in kind, Your Grace. The Watch is rich in turnips but poor in coin."    "Turnips are not like to appease Salladhor Saan. I require gold or silver."   (ADWD, Jon I)

So in both instances, there is talk about gold and how to pay. Snow points towards Jon, and turnips point back to King’s Landing because of this:

"Stannis will need another Hand," observed Aurane Waters with a chuckle. "The turnip knight, perhaps?"   (AFFC, Cersei IV)

Also, Aurane Waters needs men for his ship and says this:

"Our new dromonds will need oarsmen," said Aurane Waters. "Let us instruct the lords to send their poachers and thieves to me henceforth, instead of to the Wall." (AFFC, Cersei IV)

So, Aurane Waters becomes the commander of a navy manned by poachers and thieves, stealing the men from Jon so to say.

4) Aurane Waters is quite focused on the military strategy, just like Jon is with the defence of the wall (numbers, numbers, numbers)

"Might we discuss the fleet?" asked Aurane Waters. "Fewer than a dozen of our ships survived the inferno on the Blackwater. We must needs restore our strength at sea." (AFFC, Cersei IV)

And he is concerned about his equipments:

"I propose we build new dromonds," said Aurane Waters. "Ten, to start with." (AFFC, Cersei IV)

And this, which reminds me of Jon Snow’s concern about numbers in the Watch, and Jon’s aversion to waste human life.

"I never saw a braver knight," Waters said, "but he turned what could have been a bloodless victory into a slaughter. A thousand men are dead, or near enough to make no matter. Most of them our own. And not just common men, Your Grace, but knights and young lords, the best and the bravest." (AFFC, Cersei VIII)

5) Stannis is the current ally of Jon Snow, and the man Aurane Waters seemingly seeks out at the end of AFFC, and he is quite often mentioned in the interaction between Cersei and Aurane, most notably again in AFFC, Cersei IV. So Cersei and her council including Aurane talking about Jon Snow in this chapter might be another hint.

6) Other hints

Aurane Waters as the Jon stand-in is the one to bring up dragons.

"One last thing, Your Grace," said Aurane Waters, in an apologetic tone. "I hesitate to take up the council's time with trifles, but there has been some queer talk heard along the docks of late. Sailors from the east. They speak of dragons..." (AFFC, Cersei IV)

This like the resemblance to Rhaegar plays into Jon’s Targaryen heritage. And then there are Aurane’s ambitions:

Rosby's gold would help refresh their coffers, and Rosby's lands and castle could be bestowed upon one of her own as a reward for leal service. Lord Waters, perhaps. Aurane had been hinting at his need for a seat; his lordship was only an empty honor without one. He had his eye on Dragonstone, Cersei knew, but there he aimed too high. (AFFC, Cersei IX)

Dragonstone, the seat of house Targaryen, again an allusion to Jon as Rhaegar’s son.

So, I hope to have shown that Aurane Waters is a stand-in for Jon and now we need to look at the hints for political Aurane aka Political Jon in Cersei’s arc.

Cersei thinks Aurane is attracted to her and that she has him under control. She is extremely confident in her charms doing the work for her to keep him loyal. This is what Da€nerys will feel once she and Jon meet:

She wondered if Waters would shave his beard for her. Though he was ten years her junior, he wanted her; Cersei could see it in the way he looked at her. Men had been looking at her that way since her breasts began to bud. (AFFC, Cersei IV)

Cersei sides with Aurane against the possibly better council of Pycelle. This mirrors Da€nerys - who also has a track record of listening to the wrong people, or the people who mean her harm -

At the last session he [Pycelle] had complained bitterly about the men that Aurane Waters had chosen to captain her new dromonds. Waters meant to give the ships to younger men, whilst Pycelle argued for experience, insisting that the commands should go to those captains who had survived the fires of the Blackwater. "Seasoned men of proven loyalty," he called them. Cersei called them old, and sided with Lord Waters. (AFFC, Cersei V)

Also, Aurane’s betrayal is hinted at, thus it should not be a surprise for Cersei although it is. Da€nerys will also be surprised by Jon’s treason.

"Whilst we await Lord Walder's death, there is another matter," said Aurane Waters. "The Golden Company has broken its contract with Myr. Around the docks I've heard men say that Lord Stannis has hired them and is bringing them across the sea." (AFFC, Cersei IV)

Aurane talks about traitors who side with Stannis, just like he will do.

And this is the most ominous:

"Your Grace is kind," said Waters with a smile. A wicked smile, the queen thought. Aurane did not resemble Prince Rhaegar as much as she had thought. He has the hair, but so do half the whores in Lys, if the tales are true. Rhaegar was a man. This is a sly boy, no more. Useful in his way, though. (AFFC, Cersei VIII)

I would further suggest that there is a reason GRRM calls the gread ships ‘dromonds’. The alliteration with dragons is not a coincidence, as you can see here:

After him Lord Waters arrived, to report that the first three dromonds were nearing completion and beg for more gold to finish them in the splendor they deserved (AFFC, Cersei VI)

Also later only three dromonds are discussed:

"What of your new dromonds?" asked Ser Harys. "The longships of the ironmen cannot stand before our dromonds, surely? King Robert's Hammer is the mightiest warship in all Westeros."

"She was," said Waters. "Sweet Cersei will be her equal, once complete, and Lord Tywin will be twice the size of either. Only half are fitted out, however, and none is fully crewed. Even when they are, the numbers would be greatly against us. (AFFC, Cersei VII)

The three dromonds are stand-ins for the three dragons, and Jon will only be after the dromonds/dragons, because he needs them for his campaign.

And there is even another parallel. Aurane Waters knows how to please Cersei, just like Jon knows what Da€nerys wants to hear.

Aurane had asked her leave to name her Lord Tywin, which Cersei had been pleased to grant. She looked forward to hearing men speak of her father as a "she." Another of the ships would be named Sweet Cersei, and would bear a gilded figurehead carved in her likeness, clad in mail and lion helm, with spear in hand. (AFFC, Cersei VI)

And there is another hint:

"Lord Merryweather is right," said Lord Waters. "If it please Your Grace, I will launch the rest of our new dromonds. The sight of them upon the Blackwater with King Tommen's banner flying from their masts will remind the city who rules here, and keep them safe should the mobs decide to run riot again." (AFFC, Cersei IX)

Please note, that Aurane warned Cersei to be more understanding of the smallfolk to prevent riots.

So, we have this bastard who could be Rhaegar’s son, who repeatedly serves to make a connection to Jon’s arc a the wall, who sweettalks Cersei because of three dromonds, whom Cersei is tempted to take as a lover and who betrays Cersei in the end.

I would suggest we add this to Joso’s cock and all the evidence from Val as a stand-in for Da€nerys in Jon’s arc at the wall and the evidence from Da€nerys’ arc in Mereen that hints at political Jon. That makes three arcs with hints for Political Jon. It fits perfectly.