i recently found out about victimgate while researching the byler gates and i've been thinking about it really hard because in my eyes it makes complete sense. in fact, even if its a bit speculation heavy on my part, the pattern it brings to vecna's killings in relation to the party and will&el specifically is REALLY satisfying in my eyes:
the first victim: chrissy - getting their attention
i think that chrissy was a very intentional target not only due to her trauma and her struggles, but who she was in hawkins: a popular cheerleader, the basketball team captain's girlfriend, and a girl who was very well liked as far as we can tell. her death would shock the town, and most importantly, get the party's attention.
i don't know if vecna attacking chrissy when she got to eddie's trailer was intentional on his part or not, but it very well could've been. eddie was close to dustin, mike and lucas, and lived right next to max. the party would probably be alarmed by chrissy's death, and by eddie being involved. they would probably try to look further into it. chrissy dying would get the party's attention.
it's also good to note that mike didn't know about chrissy's death because he left to california the morning her body was found.
the second victim: fred - luring them in
fred was a great second target for vecna for a few reasons, including the things he was dealing with, but i think it's interesting that out of all of the party's new friends / people they know that are clueless of the upside down, he targeted a boy that was friends with nancy.
we all know that nancy always wants to get to the bottom of things, and vecna probably knew that very well, as we see him target her at the end of s4 with barb and the guilt she feels for barb's death. we know vecna (the mind flayer in reality, but i like to think vecna was also seeing what the mind flayer saw) spied on the group through will in s2, but he also did that through the flayed in s3, and who got flayed early on in s3?
nancy's boss and colleagues from hawkins post.
i have reason to believe vecna knew that nancy was always trying to figure things out, so he targeted fred for that reason. fred and nancy were friends from the school paper, and being the closest to her it only made sense that he went along with her when she eventually decided to take on the investigation herself. he offered nancy confirmation that there might have been a pattern to these killings on a silver platter. nancy, then, would clue everyone else in on what she found out, while the others who went after eddie also investigated. they then would be able to piece things together from then, recognise the pattern, leading to:
the third victim: max - direct involvement, direct attacks
max is a very smart girl, and she easily pieced it together that she was the third victim. i think vecna meant for max to figure it out, because he knew they would try to form a plan to stop him. in the end, max survived the attack because nancy and robin figured out the music being able to snap people out of the trance thing, which he didn't expect.
BUT, looking at max being a target through the lens of it working, max was a perfect target.
max was a member of the party, she was directly connected to the group's inner circle, but most importantly, a close friend of will and el. emphasis on her being close to el.
as we saw in the end of s4, max being killed would greatly affect el, seeing as before lenora she was the closest to el (other than mike, but we'll get to that) in the party. targeting max would make el angry, and she would definitely want to kill henry in return. killing max would be a huge blow to the party, and it would affect everyone. by having them laser-focused on defeating him, stopping more deaths from happening and getting revenge for max, vecna would be getting them exactly where he wants them to be.
and especially, he would be getting will and el exactly where he wants them to be. will and el are vecna's main targets, but ultimately, we have reason to believe that vecna's main goal is getting will.
and to do that, to hit the two of them where it hurts, it only makes sense who he'd pick for his final target.
the fourth victim: mike - the final blow
in a perfect world (for vecna), mike never went to california. in that perfect world, he stayed in hawkins, where he could've been targeted by vecna.
mike went through a lot of trauma throughout s1-3, and even before that with all of the bullying. we can be fairly sure that mike was (and still is) suffering from depression, and we have seen him show suicidal tendencies in the show, by jumping off of the quarry in s1 without knowing el would save him. and thats not mentioning his very likely struggle with internalised homophobia + liking will.
we also know mike tends to be very selfless and reckless when it comes to his friends. hell, he literally jumped off of the quarry to keep dustin safe, and we all know what lengths he went to to get will back.
i have reason to believe that while looking for a possible fourth target, mike would either ignore the signs that he was a target or purposefully keep the symptoms to himself.
in this scenario where max died, they never figured out the music thing, so maybe he just felt hopeless anyways.
mike's death would also affect will and el the most, considering they're the two people closest to him.
el would already be destroyed from max's death, and losing mike on top of that would possibly shatter her completely. romantic or not, el's love for mike is insanely strong, so losing him would destroy her.
vecna also probably knows about will's crush on mike. he knows mike is the most important person to will, he saw mike's swingset confession in s2, he was inside of will's mind. he knows mike dying would affect will the most, and that he would even possibly try to give himself up to save mike.
mike is the heart, and once the heart dies, everything else goes with it.
so yeah all that to say mike is 100% FUCKED in s5 and i am scared for him (i am cheering so hard)