Januariad Stats
Among the invented worlds, the far-flung characters, the carefully turned details of the month-long Januariad project, we inevitably find common threads that can be spun into statistics. I’m taking a stats course right now, so I thought I’d pull out a little math on the Januariad as a wrap-up. This month, we have 42 images and by my count, we log 115 works that I’ll call "Januariad Fiction." (No exposition or factual image captioning included here.) Among those numbers we see the following individual trends: portersnotebook Likelihood of a story …that contains a monster: 35% …placed in a wasteland: 30% …in which a city figures prominently: 25% galalc Likelihood of a story …that features a bar: 25% …that contains a murder/untimely death: 15% …that features a father/son relationship: 10% mollyculetheory Likelihood of a story … that features a witch: 10% … that contains an apocalypse/dystopia: 20% … that features foreign or obscure English words: 65% thejanuaryist Likelihood of a story … with a geezer protagonist: 30% … featuring an untimely death: 20% laurenpapot Likelihood of a drawing … that features a portrait: 63%* … that contains coffee: 19%* … that features one or more helmets: 19% jackrusher Likelihood of an image … that contains a landscape: 25% … that contains a portrait: 29% Likelihood of a fiction work … that contains aliens: 16% … that contains an apocalypse/dystopia: 16% kayseerights Likelihood of a work … that features the natural world: 27%* … that contains a talking animal: 6% mmichaelmcelroy Likelihood of a story … that features an implication of cannibalism: 14%* … that contains a mug or glass of a beverage: 86%* There’s some fun in the aggregate data here, too. Based on the group of fiction writings, I count 43 works in which we can read a clearly female gendered or presumed female protagonist, which gives us 37% female protagonists for Januariad 2016. While this is nowhere near true equity, it’s vastly more gender-equitable than Hollywood (In the top grossing films of 2014, only 12 percent of protagonists were women) or in gaming (traditionally), or in literature in general. mollyculetheory led the way here, with 70% female-protagonist stories, followed by kayseerights, with 62% likelihood of a female protagonist. I was actually making a considered effort this month to include more gender equity, and I hit a decent balance with a 50% chance of a female protagonist in any given story. When jackrusher chose to add writing to his imagery, he showed a 43% likelihood of writing a female protagonist, but if we take into account the gender of the writer overall, the female Januariad writers were much more likely to produce a male protagonist than the male Januariad writers were to write a female protagonist. Again, interesting, but unsurprising, given the way that gender balance has been represented in fiction across history. So I’ll wrap this up, but nice work this month, everyone! Congratulations on finishing the project, and enjoy your extra free time! Methodology: Presumption of “monster” includes god-like monsters, and outsized lizards, but not humans with monstrous behavior. Presumption of “female protagonist” is based on a reading of the work that produces no overt reference to the protagonist’s masculine gender. Works containing no specific protagonist or a gender-flexible protagonist were excluded from the presumption of feminine protagonist count. Seeing as how simple calculations for probability are based on independent events, it’s highly unlikely that we can refer to a given Januariad post as "independent" since most of us are reviewing the work of the others across the course of the month. Thus, there’s no randomness and no indication that these percentages will predict future work. Standard count of works was 20, but some contributors produced more or less than 20 posts. Individual percentages are based on the total 2016 Januariad works for that individual. * rounding

















