This rings true. #Apple #AI
youtu.be/t7L6-fMpx…
Game of Thrones Daily

PR's Tumblrdome
let's talk about Bridgerton tea, my ask is open

if i look back, i am lost
todays bird

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Sweet Seals For You, Always
🩵 avery cochrane 🩵

Product Placement
𓃗

#extradirty
official daine visual archive
One Nice Bug Per Day
★
noise dept.
Doug Jones

tannertan36
No title available

bliss lane
I'd rather be in outer space 🛸
seen from United States
seen from United States
seen from T1
seen from France

seen from Brazil
seen from Saudi Arabia

seen from Canada

seen from Malaysia

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seen from Hong Kong SAR China
seen from United States
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@timothyjchambers
This rings true. #Apple #AI
youtu.be/t7L6-fMpx…
Watching this closely: “Signal Alums Reveal ‘Encrypted Spaces,’ a System for Making Private Collaboration Apps…”
www.wired.com/story/sig…
Gemini Spark is Now Live (For Some)
This is all all launching faster than I thought. And I tought it was going to be quick. #AgenticWeb
Google Zero
I had not seen this quote before. Whoa. #GoogleZero
“Conde Nast CEO Roger Lynch on TBPN saying they are assuming all search traffic will be zero from now on.”
https://www.theverge.com/google/929641/conde-nast-calls-google-zero
Good to hear: Kagi keeps coming up as the one people stick with. I’m still comparing options but it’s on my short list. Not sure how any of them compare in total index size, think many of them license Bing data but add to it.
Thanks for this. Was a great collaboration and glad to see it getting traction. The UX conversation in the fediverse has come a long way in six months but there’s still a lot of ground to cover.
Fully endorse. #bigtech
“Asking platforms to do better won’t work. We need to force their hands..”
werd.io/asking-pl…
This tracks. #AI
Every day of this hurts us more than them. And they know it. Not sure Trump does. [www.nytimes.com/live/2026…)
I’m looking to seee how #Nostr is going these days. #Primal seems to be the best UX I’ve seen for web, and maybe for mobile apps too. Any others I’m missing? https://primal.net/home
Journalists, stop with the “format wars” headlines for Bluesky vs. Mastodon! 🤦♀️ This isn’t zero-sum; when one wins, both benefit. It’s also the wrong question entirely. Twitter was already broken before it became ‘X,’ remember? #OpenSocialWeb
www.techtimes.com/articles/…
It’s really markable how correct he is. #StarWars
[www.threads.com/@ben.stra…
This is a test of a new compose app I’m playing with for posting to my social accounts. #Ignore
**Proposal for Fediverse Remote Content Engagement** Updated April 14, 2026
Tim Chambers, @[email protected]
Updated: April 2026
Enhancing User Experience for Remote Social Interactions in ActivityPub Applications
I. Introduction: The Challenge of Federated Interactions
Decentralized social networking platforms, operating on a federated model where users reside on independent servers (instances) yet can interact across the network, offer resilience and community autonomy. However, this architecture has historically presented user experience (UX) challenges, particularly for interactions initiated from one instance but targeting a user or content on another. This report investigates a long-standing UX issue within the Fediverse: the cumbersome process of handling remote social interactions.
This analysis will describe the core user experience problem and then evaluate three distinct options for solving it, each with different technical assumptions and browser applicability.
We invite further collaboration and study, and if Option C is feasible and if our assertions in this proposal prove true, we strongly recommend it.
II. The Core User Experience Problem: The “Copy-Paste Dance”
Before exploring solutions, it is critical to define the problem they aim to solve. The core appeal of the Fediverse is its federated nature, yet web interfaces have struggled to make these cross-instance interactions fluid.
When a user, logged into their home instance (e.g., my.home.social), browses to a profile page on a different instance (e.g., another.instance/@remote_user), the process to follow that remote user is convoluted and laborious:
Discovery & Intent: The user finds a profile on a remote server and clicks the “Follow” button.
The Interrupting Dialog: Instead of completing the action, a pop-up dialog appears.
The “Copy-Paste Dance”: This dialog prompts the user to copy the remote user’s full address (e.g., [email protected]).
Manual Navigation: The user must leave the page they are on and navigate back to their own home instance.
Search & Rediscovery: The user pastes the copied address into the search bar on their home instance and waits for the profile to resolve.
Final Action: Once the profile appears within the context of my.home.social, the user can then click “Follow” a second time to finally establish the connection.
This multi-step process is a common source of frustration, described by users as a “clunky copy-paste flow” that is “not very intuitive” and “really broken.” It creates friction that counteracts the core value proposition of seamless federation.
We propose a flow that could be implemented quickly. Options A and B would require no server-side coding inclusion.
Nothing here contradicts standardizing Native Protocol Handler solutions into browsers more fully, without the need for “custom protocol handling.”
This is a solution meant to be implemented near term and in a progressive fashion—to bring the best possible solution to users early and improve it over time.
III. Browser Support of “Custom Protocol Handlers”
A more integrated solution to the remote interaction problem could involve native browser capabilities, specifically custom URI schemes and the navigator.registerProtocolHandler API.
Understanding navigator.registerProtocolHandler and Custom URI Schemes
The navigator.registerProtocolHandler() Web API allows websites to declare their ability to handle specific URL schemes (protocols). For example, a webmail application could register to handle mailto: links. In the context of Mastodon and ActivityPub, a custom URI scheme could direct interaction requests to the user’s home instance.
For security and standardization, custom schemes intended for web-based handlers must adhere to certain rules: they must begin with web+, be followed by at least one letter, and consist only of lowercase ASCII letters.
The web+ap URI scheme has been proposed specifically for ActivityPub objects, aiming to be syntactically similar to https URIs but signaling that the resource should be handled by an ActivityPub-aware application. Its primary purpose is “to explicitly enable the registration of a web-based protocol handler,” which would ideally be the user’s own Mastodon instance. Functionally, a web+ap URI is conceived as an https URI with added ActivityPub semantics.
Another proposal, FEP-07d7, suggests web+activitypub: with similar aims. While web+activitypub: is more descriptive, web+ap is more concise and has seen early adoption, such as its support in the Conversations XMPP client.
The core concept is that clicking a link like web+ap:https://example.com/users/alice would, after a one-time browser permission prompt, open this link in the context of the user’s home Mastodon instance, which would then manage the interaction (e.g., displaying the profile for a follow action).
Regardless of the final format of this web+ap scheme or if another is more appropriate, this is a promising long-term solution that will only become more seamless as standardization and adoption of custom handlers for the fediverse mature.
We recommend using it now—and while in this document we assume web+ap in particular, this proposal does assume the need for robust browser support of custom protocol handlers. And of late that has arrived on desktop—with notable gaps remaining on mobile.
IV. Custom Protocol Handler Market Share in April 2026
Sources: Browser compatibility data from MDN, CanIUse, and browser documentation. Market share statistics from StatCounter Global Stats (March 2026)
The practical utility of a custom URI scheme hinges on browser support for navigator.registerProtocolHandler() for web-based custom schemes. This support remains inconsistent across the browser landscape.
It is crucial to differentiate this from general support for URI schemes. The key capability for web+ap is the registration of web-based handlers by arbitrary websites.
Browser Support for navigator.registerProtocolHandler (for Web-Based Custom Schemes) as of April 2026
Desktop Browser Support Details & Notes Google Chrome (Windows/Mac/Linux) ✅ Yes Supported since Chrome 13. Requires HTTPS (secure context) and valid scheme. Custom protocols must use a web+ prefix (only lowercase letters after web+). Microsoft Edge (Chromium-based) ✅ Yes Supported since Edge 79. Edge Legacy (v12–18) did not support this API. Mozilla Firefox (Desktop) ✅ Yes Supported since Firefox 3. No major limitations beyond spec requirements. Opera (Desktop) ✅ Yes Chromium-based versions follow Chrome’s behavior. Apple Safari (macOS) ❌ No Still not supported in any Safari version (through Safari 26.x). Safari actively opposed protocol handler support for extensions when discussed at WICG in 2023.
Mobile Browser / Platform Support Details & Notes Chrome for Android ❌ No Not supported. Never implemented on Chrome for Android (tracked as Chromium bug #40964464). Firefox for Android ❌ No Not supported. The rewritten “Fenix” Firefox for Android does not implement registerProtocolHandler. Safari on iOS (iPhone/iPad) ❌ No Not supported. iOS Safari does not implement the API. Opera (Android) ❌ No Not supported. Samsung Internet (Android) ❌ No Not supported. Android WebView ❌ No Not supported. iOS WebView (WKWebView) ❌ No Not supported (same engine as Safari).
Verdict on Browser Support
Desktop browsers: Chrome, Edge, Firefox, and Opera support protocol handlers, representing approximately 89%+ of desktop browser market share.
Mobile browsers: As confirmed by CanIUse (February 2026), no mainstream mobile browser currently implements navigator.registerProtocolHandler() for web-based custom schemes.
Global usage supporting protocol handlers: According to CanIUse (February 2026), approximately 34% of total global web traffic can invoke web-based custom protocol handlers today across desktop and mobile browsers. This is down from the ~40% estimated in 2025 due to continued mobile traffic growth.
Current browser market share (StatCounter, March 2026):
Chrome: 66.7%
Safari: 17.9%
Edge: 5.79%
Firefox: 2.33%
Samsung Internet: 2.06%
Opera: 2%
This highlights that while the feature is well-supported on desktops, the vast mobile user base remains unaddressed by browser-based protocol handlers—necessitating alternative solutions.
V. New Development: Mobile App Adoption of web+ap (April 2026)
While browser support on mobile remains absent, mobile apps are adopting the web+ap URI scheme directly, bypassing the browser entirely:
Fedilab: web+ap support shipped (confirmed complete April 11, 2026)
Holos Discover (Fedilab’s search engine) is implementing web+ap support
Tusky has an open issue (#5027) to add support
Conversations (XMPP client) supports web+ap
This is significant because it breaks the chicken-and-egg problem. Android apps registering as handlers for web+ap: links means users could tap such a link and have it open directly in their Fediverse app—bypassing the browser entirely.
This creates a viable path forward: even without mobile browser support, mobile users could benefit from protocol handlers if enough apps adopt the scheme.
VI. New Development: Chrome 146 Extension Protocol Handlers (March 2026)
A significant development that could eventually solve the mobile browser gap: Chrome 146 shipped experimental support for protocol handler registration via browser extensions (March 2026).
Background
Igalia, funded by the Open Impact Foundation’s IPFS Implementations grants program, implemented support for declaring protocol handlers directly in browser extension manifests. This capability already existed in Firefox since 2017; now Chrome matches.
Full details: Protocol Handler Registration via Browser Extensions
How It Works
Instead of using the Web API (navigator.registerProtocolHandler()), extensions can declare handlers in their manifest:
json “protocol_handlers”: [ { “protocol”: “web+ap”, “name”: “Fediverse Helper”, “uriTemplate”: “https://my.home.social/authorize_interaction?uri=%s” } ]
Key differences from the Web API:
Web API Extension Manifest Requires visiting the site Declared at install time Requires user activation (click) Runtime approval on first use Same-origin handler URL required Can cross origins (with consent) Per-site registration One extension covers all sites Manual management Lifecycle tied to extension
Why This Matters for the Fediverse
A “Fediverse Helper” browser extension could:
Declare web+ap as a protocol it handles
Prompt the user once for their home instance URL
Redirect all web+ap: links to the user’s home instance
Work across all Fediverse sites without per-site setup
This is simpler than Option B (per-site JavaScript prompts) and doesn’t require server-side changes like Option C.
Current Status
Chrome 146: Available behind experimental flag
chrome --enable-features=ExtensionProtocolHandlers
Firefox: Supported since 2017
Safari: Actively opposed this feature at WICG
Mobile Implications
This is currently desktop-only. However, Chrome for Android shares the Chromium codebase. If this feature:
Moves from experimental to stable in desktop Chrome
Ships to Chrome for Android
Extension support on mobile Chrome improves
…then mobile Chrome users could install a Fediverse extension that handles web+ap: links natively. This would be a significant step toward solving the mobile protocol handler gap.
Timeline uncertainty: There’s no guarantee Chrome will ship this to mobile, and Safari/iOS remains opposed. But this is the most promising development for mobile browsers we’ve seen.
Vivaldi: Curious if Fediverse-forward browser Vivaldi could include this in their Android mobile application.
VII. Option A: Native Protocol Handler Solution (For Supported Browsers)
This option represents the ideal, most seamless user experience, but it relies on native browser capabilities that are not universally supported.
A. The Envisioned “Seamless” Flow
With this solution, the “Follow” button on a remote profile would be a link using a custom URI scheme, like web+ap:https://another.instance/users/remote_user. The interaction would unfold as follows:
First-Time Interaction (One-Time Setup):
The user clicks the web+ap: link.
The browser intervenes with a native prompt: “Allow my.home.social (your home instance) to open all web+ap: links? [Allow]”.
The user clicks “Allow,” and the browser stores this preference.
Redirection and Action:
The browser redirects the web+ap: URI to a specific endpoint on the user’s home instance (e.g., https://my.home.social/authorize_interaction?uri=...).
The home instance loads the page, displaying the remote profile within the user’s familiar interface. A clear “Follow” button is presented.
The user clicks “Follow” to complete the action. This achieves the “two clicks and zero text inputs” ideal.
Subsequent Interactions:
When the user clicks another web+ap: link, the browser, having stored the permission, directly opens it on the home instance, achieving a “one-click” initiation.
B. Technical Mechanism: navigator.registerProtocolHandler
This flow is enabled by the navigator.registerProtocolHandler() Web API, which allows a website (the user’s home instance) to register itself as the handler for a specific URL scheme (like web+ap:).
C. Critical Limitation: Browser Support
The practical utility of Option A hinges entirely on browser support as outlined in Section IV.
~89% of desktop traffic: Supported
~0% of mobile browser traffic: Not supported
~34% of total global traffic: Supported
We offer two fallback JavaScript solutions: One (Option B) assuming Client-Side-Only JavaScript, and another (Option C) that assumes server-side code can be added to the Fediverse server.
VIII. Fallback Option B: Client-Side-Only JavaScript Fallback (No Server Code)
This option is a fallback for browsers that do not support Option A. It assumes no code changes on the user’s home server and functions entirely with client-side JavaScript that could run on any federated website.
A. Concept and Mechanism
This approach relies on explicitly asking the user for their home instance and storing it.
User Prompt for Home Instance: The first time a user attempts a remote interaction on a fediverse site, a script running on that page prompts them to enter their home instance URL (e.g., “To enable seamless interactions, please enter your home server”).
Local Storage: The provided URL is then stored in the browser’s localStorage under a key like activitypub.homeInstance. Because localStorage is scoped to the domain, the user would need to perform this action once for each different remote domain they visit.
Link Rewriting: On subsequent visits to that same remote domain, the script will read the stored home instance URL and dynamically rewrite remote interaction links to point to the user’s home server’s /authorize_interaction endpoint.
Final Confirmation on Home Server: After the user clicks the rewritten link, they are redirected to their own server. Their server will then load an interface asking the logged-in user to give final approval for the action (e.g., “Do you want to follow this user?"). This ensures the user is in control and explicitly “blesses” the interaction before it is completed.
While not ideal, this Option has only two steps (versus the current four steps for Mastodon, and zero cutting and pasting) and it has the strong advantage over the status quo in that it is only done once, ever, for each server from then on.
B. Sample Implementation (Prompt-Based)
javascript (function() { const homeServerKey = ‘activitypub.homeInstance’; let homeServer = localStorage.getItem(homeServerKey);
function promptForHomeServer() { const instanceUrl \= prompt( "To enable seamless social interactions, please enter your Mastodon home server (e.g., https://mastodon.social). You should only need to do this once on this site:" ); if (instanceUrl) { try { const url \= new URL(instanceUrl); homeServer \= url.origin; localStorage.setItem(homeServerKey, homeServer); // ... proceed to rewrite links ... } catch (e) { alert("Invalid URL format. Please try again."); } } } if (\!homeServer) { // Trigger the prompt when needed, e.g., on a follow button click. document.getElementById('remoteFollow')?.addEventListener('click', (e) \=\> { e.preventDefault(); promptForHomeServer(); }); } else { // ... rewrite links on page load ... }
})();
IX. Fallback Option C: Enhanced JavaScript Fallback (With Server-Side Cooperation)
This fallback solution works for browsers that do not support the Custom Protocol Option A, but unlike Option B, this assumes that server-side code is available on the user’s home instance to assist the process.
Important Technical Limitation: Cross-Origin Storage
Option C as originally conceived does NOT work across domains due to the browser’s same-origin policy. localStorage is strictly same-origin:
my.home.social writes to localStorage → only accessible on my.home.social
another.instance cannot read localStorage from my.home.social
This means Option C only helps in the more limited scenario where users are browsing links to remote content while staying on their own home instance’s domain—which, while helpful, is not the primary use case that causes friction.
The viable approaches therefore remain:
Option A: Custom protocol handlers (desktop-only, ~34% global reach)
Option B: Prompting for home instance as a JavaScript fallback (universal)
Mobile apps: Direct web+ap: scheme support (emerging)
A. Limited Use Case for Option C
If Mastodon itself includes this feature in its codebase, every Mastodon instance would install:
A writer script (sets the home instance key when user is logged in)
A reader script (checks that key, rewrites buttons)
Because both scripts run on the same domain (each user’s server), there’s no cross-origin issue when the user is browsing their own instance. The reader doesn’t need to touch localStorage from another site—it only reads the home instance from the local user’s own instance (where it’s already stored), and sends users back to it via rewritten interaction links.
However, this does not solve the primary friction point: users browsing remote instances directly.
B. Sample Implementation
1. Patch for Home Server (Writer Script):
javascript // Placed in a component that loads for authenticated users useEffect(() => { try { const isLoggedIn = window.__initial_state__?.meta?.me; if (isLoggedIn) { const origin = window.location.origin; localStorage.setItem(‘activitypub.homeInstance’, origin); console.log(`[ActivityPub UX] Home instance auto-set to: ${origin}`); } } catch (e) { console.warn('[ActivityPub UX] Could not auto-set home instance', e); } }, []);
2. Script on Remote Pages (Reader Script):
javascript const homeInstance = localStorage.getItem(‘activitypub.homeInstance’); if (homeInstance) { const remoteLink = ‘https://kolektiva.social/@someuser'; const redirectUrl = `${homeInstance}/authorize_interaction?uri=${encodeURIComponent(remoteLink)}`; // Rewrite the href of the link element to redirectUrl } else { // Fallback to Option B’s prompt, or do nothing. }
X. Recommendations
Given the current browser landscape and emerging mobile app adoption:
Deploy Option A (protocol handlers) now for the ~34% of users who can benefit from it. Desktop users on Chrome, Firefox, Edge, and Opera get a seamless experience.
Implement Option B as a fallback for all other users. The one-time prompt per domain is far better than the current copy-paste dance.
Advocate for web+ap adoption in mobile apps. The emerging adoption by Fedilab, Holos Discover, and potentially Tusky creates a path where mobile users can bypass browser limitations entirely. Newsmast, Surf, and other Fediverse apps should consider adding support.
Build a “Fediverse Helper” browser extension. With Chrome 146’s experimental extension protocol handler support, an extension could handle web+ap: links declaratively. This would work on Firefox today and Chrome (experimentally). If Chrome ships this to stable and eventually to Android, it could solve the mobile browser gap.
Continue pushing for mobile browser support. Chrome for Android bug #40964464 should be prioritized by the Fediverse community.
Watch for Object Links (FEP-e232). Mastodon’s CTO has proposed a simpler approach where servers tag ActivityPub URLs automatically, allowing apps to open content directly. If implemented, this could solve the problem at the protocol level.
The path forward is clear: progressive enhancement. Ship what works today for the users who can benefit, while building toward a future where seamless cross-instance interaction is universal.
XI. Conclusion
The “copy-paste dance” remains one of the Fediverse’s most frustrating UX problems. But the pieces for a solution are falling into place:
Desktop browser support is strong (~89%)
Mobile apps are adopting web+ap directly
Chrome 146 extension protocol handlers could eventually help mobile
Protocol-level solutions like Object Links are being developed
JavaScript fallbacks can bridge the gap
The Fediverse community should move from debating protocol strings to shipping implementations. The users are waiting.
This proposal invites collaboration and feedback. Contact: @[email protected]
Merry Christmas everyone!
Cool, added this search tool to my micro.blog site, will find out best way to add it to top of the UX:
www.timothychambers.net/search-sp…
My 2026 Open Social Web Predictions
I just finished reviewing my 2025 predictions (how do you think I did grading myself?) www.timothychambers.net/2024/12/2…
Now it’s time to make some bets for 2026. I do this not to prove how great my prognostication muscles are, but to shine a spotlight on trends I think are vital, spur discussions, and give some attention to projects that have earned it. As always, I try to make these as quantifiable, verifiable and crisp as I can. Here goes:
🌱 MILD
Safe bets — would be surprising if these DON’T happen.
▶️ Bluesky will cross 60 million registered users in 2026. Growth will slow from 2024’s explosive pace but remain steady, driven by continued X dissatisfaction and improved features.
▶️ The ActivityPub Fediverse (excluding Threads) will cross 15 million registered users, monthly active users (excluding will plateau around 2-3 million. Another good year in terms of stable base, but no big waves of new users. Both Bluesky and Fediverse growth won’t come from big waves of migration this year.
▶️ Any smaller waves from X/Twitter or from a newly bought TikTok will benefit Meta (Threads/IG), BlueSky, and Fediverse in that order. I see nothing that would change that prediction that was true last year, too.
▶️ Threads will pass 500 million monthly active users and remain the largest ActivityPub-adjacent platform by a wide margin. But see the next prediction:
▶️ Threads federation will remain partial, and opt-in through all of 2026. Full two-way federation will NOT ship in 2026 but may move from about 90 percent there, to 95 percent done, inching forward but not finalized and prioritized as a feature. As Manton wrote, that’s better than fully closed, and better than them stripping it out. (which they might do but I’m predicting not) My bet: the status quo continues. www.manton.org/2025/12/1…
▶️ Ghost’s ActivityPub integration will bring 75,000+ new federated accounts to the Fediverse and Ghost will finish 2026 in the top 10 Fediverse server software by MAU.
▶️ WordPress-based federated accounts will cross 50,000 as measured by FediDB. Currently at approximately 26,000 accounts across 12,700 servers, the WordPress-to-Fediverse pipeline becomes a meaningful growth contributor.
🔥 MEDIUM-SPICEY
Plausible bets — could go either way, but evidence points toward yes.
▶️ BridgyFed will shift to “opt-out” for Bluesky users bridging to ActivityPub — and the discourse will be far less contentious than the 2024 debates predicted. Cross-protocol interoperability quietly normalizes.
▶️ At least one fully independent ATProto stack — PDS, Relay, and AppView operating without dependency on Bluesky PBC infrastructure — will achieve viability in 2026, meaning it has paying customers or sustainable funding. This will be the year ATProto proves (or fails to prove) it can exist beyond Bluesky-the-company.
▶️ Mastodon gGmbH will hit key sustainability milestones in 2026. Their hosting revenue model will exceed internal targets, the new organizational structure will unlock additional grant funding (beyond NGI/NLnet), and the pace of Mastodon development will noticeably accelerate — shipping more significant features in 2026 than in the previous two years combined.
▶️ Bluesky PBC will raise another round of funding in 2026 and announce more details on a proposed business model. Following their $15M Series A (October 2024), the company will close a larger round to extend runway. The announced business model will NOT be advertising-based. I’d expect subscriptions, marketplace fees, or enterprise services.
▶️ The first “ATProto-native” social app that is NOT microblogging will cross 100,000 users. Whether it’s Frontpage (link aggregation), Leaflet (long-form), Smoke Signal, or something new — the ATmosphere diversifies beyond Bluesky-the-app.
▶️ Flipboard’s Surf app will launch its 1.0 version in 2026 and cross 1 million downloads across iOS and Android by year end, with 100,000+ monthly active users. It will become the most-downloaded dedicated Open Social Web client, surpassing Mastodon’s official app and Graysky.
▶️ Fedify will power the federation layer for at least one mid-sized social platform (500K+ users) that adds ActivityPub support in 2026. The “build vs. buy” calculation for federation shifts decisively toward “just use Fedify.”
▶️ Fediscovery will ship in a stable Mastodon release in 2026, moving from behind feature flags to production-ready. The specifications for pluggable discovery providers — covering account search, follow recommendations, and trends — will reach 1.0 status, and at least one public Fediscovery-compatible provider will launch for general use. Small instance operators will finally have a real option to improve discovery without running their own infrastructure.
▶️ The new “ActivityRank” algorithm in Loops will prove that ethical recommendations and decentralization can coexist. Dan Supernault’s approach — where each instance trains its own algorithm while surfacing content across the ActivityPub network — will be recognized as a breakthrough in solving the fediverse’s discoverability problem. By the end of 2026, the pattern will be studied or adopted by at least two other ActivityPub platforms.
▶️ Fediscovery will ship in a stable Mastodon release in 2026, moving from behind feature flags to production-ready. Fediscovery is a Mastodon gGmbH-led project building open specifications for pluggable, privacy-respecting discovery providers — covering account search, follow recommendations, and trending content. The specifications will reach 1.0 status, and at least one non-Mastodon platform will adopt the spec.
▶️ ATProto will advance from Internet Drafts to an official IETF Working Group in 2026. Following the September 2025 submission of initial specifications, Bluesky will secure enough support and independent implementers to form a dedicated Working Group — moving from “proposal being discussed” to “standard being formally developed.”
🌶️ SPICY
Hot takes - a bit more risky - but I’m calling my shot.
▶️ A well-known digital-native media publication (10M+ monthly visitors) will federate via ActivityPub in 2026 and publicly share positive results. Whether through Ghost, WordPress, or custom implementation, this outlet will report that federated followers drove meaningful engagement — making the business case for federation legible to other publishers for the first time. By year end, at least two additional publications will announce federation plans, citing this pioneer as proof of concept.
▶️ At least one major news organization (top 50 US by traffic) will announce it is leaving X/Twitter entirely and making Bluesky or the Fediverse its primary social distribution channel. The “institutional exodus” begins.
▶️ At least one major national government or major city will launch an official presence on BOTH Bluesky AND the ActivityPub Fediverse in 2026 — and it will be a European government. Expect surprising additional early adopters after this from Latin America, Asia-Pacific, or Africa to follow that lead and make moves that year to do the same. This is the year the move to “digital sovereignty" from US tech will benefit the open social web. Eurosky will inch along with some promise.
▶️ Nostr ↔ ATProto ↔ ActivityPub three-way bridging becomes functional via BridgyFed or another service by end of 2026. The “protocol wars” narrative collapses into “just pick your client.”
▶️ AltStore will be live with Federation features in at least 5 countries by end of 2026 (currently EU + Japan, with Brazil, Australia, UK announced). AltStore is an independent iOS app marketplace created by Riley Testut and Shane Gill — the first major alternative to Apple’s App Store, made possible by the EU’s Digital Markets Act. The federated app marketplace model will prove viable outside Europe, challenging Apple’s App Store dominance in multiple regulatory regimes simultaneously. Their ActivityPub integration — where app updates flow to Mastodon, Threads, and Bluesky — will become the most compelling non-social-media use case for decentrlized social features, proving definitively that such protocols extends beyond microblogging.
▶️ Loops will become the third most-used Fediverse software by MAU by end of 2026, trailing only Mastodon and Pixelfed. The short-form video platform will cross 100,000 monthly active users, with Loops-originated content generating significant federated engagement from non-Loops clients — proving that ActivityPub can power video-centric social experiences.
▶️ PieFed will emerge as the most feature-rich Threadiverse platform by end of 2026, surpassing Lemmy and Mbin in moderation tools, user experience, and federation capabilities. The platform will cross 10,000 monthly active users and its rapid development pace — shipping major features weekly — will make it the default recommendation for anyone starting a new Reddit-style community in the fediverse.
▶️ More laws akin to Utah’s Digital Choice Act will pass or advance - sparking first steps towards interoperability to mainstream US discourse. The Utah law takes effect July 1, 2026, and several other states will pass similar ones, requiring social media platforms to enable data portability and interoperability. At least one major platform will announce ActivityPub or AT Protocol support to comply. The “Digital Choice” framing will prove more politically viable than “antitrust” for breaking Big Tech’s lock-in.
What did I miss? What did I get wrong? Let me know — and I’ll see you in December 2026 to grade these.