The Transportation Planner

I'm Michael Rodriguez, AICP. I'm a transportation planner and economist; but more importantly, an urbanist. These are My thoughts on transportation, urbansism, and sometimes politics and miscellaneous stuff. Find more about me: TranspoPlanner.com

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Launching the new TranspoPlanner.com !

I finally gave in and settled on WordPress as a much better blogging platform. While I may still use Tumblr for more "Tumblr-like" posts, such as photos and such, my primary blog posts will now be on TranspoPlanner.com. All the old posts that are on here have now been migrated.  Look forward to seeing you there!

http://www.TranspoPlanner.com

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Wyoming Has 66 times More Senate Power than California, and You Should be Mad.

By: Michael Rodriguez

I'm going to sidetrack today and talk a bit about politics, and in particular, electoral systems.  Any of you who know me know that I can't stand the disproportionate power that some small states have over larger states.  In particular, I'm talking about the deliberate over representation (aka "equal representation") in the U.S. Senate, as well as in the Electoral College.

I want to place the disproportionate power in context, and argue that back in 1792 the power imbalance was not so stark as it is today. The Founding Fathers probably didn't anticipate the disparate population levels we have among states now. I think it would have been a tougher argument to give so few people in these tiny states so much relative power.  I just don't think Wyoming deserves as much Senate power as it has, for example.

What I've done in this chart is look at the populations as of the 1790 Census, 2010 Census, and the Electoral College balances for the 1792 and 2012 elections respectively. 

So lets look at the least populous state compared to the most populous state. Back in 1792, Delaware had 7.9% as much population as big old Virginia. The figure "power disproportion" is the relative ratio of electoral votes per person between the state and the largest state.  Thus, in 1792, from an Electoral College perspective, a Delawarean had 1.81 times as much power as a Virginian. I also put the median state in there for some context.  In this case, the median state in 1792 was Connecticut, and any one Connecticut resident had 1.35 as much power as a Virginian. (As a note, I'm looking at total population, which includes slaves, women, and minors. This isn't adjusting only for the enfranchised population of the time.) Now look at 2012.  Wyoming only has 1.5% of California's population (unlike Delaware's 7.9% to Virginia in 1792). And yet, a Wyoming resident has 3.61 as much Electoral College power than a Californian.  In another way, today, the least populous state has almost twice the relative Electoral College power than the least populous state did in 1792. (1.81 for in Delaware 1792 vs 3.61 for Wyoming in 2012). One quirk that stands out: it turns out that in 2012, Louisianans (the median state) have less Electoral College power than California. Hmm.  Senate Imbalance Numbers Alright, that was the Electoral College. Now lets think about the whole Senate power thing, which was really what the Great Compromise was about.

Your response should be WTF.  

Back in 1792, the Great Compromise effectively gave a Delawarean 12.7 times as much Senate power as a Virginian. OK, we know this was by design, and let's accept that this was the level of imbalance that the Founding Fathers pretty much accepted. Now, in 2012, a Wyoming resident has 66.1 times as much Senate power as a Californian!  Sixty six! That is over 5.2 times as much relative power as the least populous state had in 1792.   Basically what has happened is the spread between largest and smallest state has become much larger over time. With each year, and changes in populations, as the smallest states get smaller and largest and medium-to-large states (generally) gain population, that imbalance exacerbates.  Isn't there a philosophical limit to how much disproportionate power we should be willing to give the smallest state? 

'Nuff Said My point is that even if there was an accepted power imbalance as a consequence of the Great Compromise, it was no where near as much as it is today.  And it starts getting absurd when one Senator from a tiny state that represents fewer and fewer people relative to the larger states gets to ruin legislation, filibuster nominees, and stymie the whole process for their 12 people, 6 cows, 2 out of state PACs, and one multinational corporation they represent. 

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Can Uber Break 1-million Riders In Charlotte?

by: Michael Rodriguez

Based on some of the job postings around, it comes as no surprise to anyone that the everyone’s favorite taxi/technology company, Uber, has been expanding at breakneck speed. As they plan to enter the Charlotte, North Carolina market, some may wonder if this service is viable in a city that is not New York, San Francisco, or Washington, DC. I decided to run some numbers and do some fancy-pants statistics, and the preliminary figures are: its possible to get towards 1 million even in this market. I used some math to estimate.

Now, I’ve been a fan of the company for a few months and think they have done a great service to the world by starting to break up the taxi oligarchies, and allowing new drivers to enter the market. There’s even some social good that comes along in doing so.

But anyone knows that scale is the enabler of a strong business, and having enough of a market is necessary for Uber to actually turn a profit in the Queen City. The way to think about this is to look at the data out there. Population Characteristics Charlotte is the 32nd largest metropolitan statistical area in the country (MSA). According to the most recent Census 5-year estimates (American Community Survey, for those data junkies), this MSA has a population of 1.7 million, with 704,000 (40.4 percent) of the residents living in the urban area of the City of Charlotte.

When we’re talking about taxi riders, though, we are likely talking more about the adults, so we need to look at the population 18 and over. So looking only at adults there are 1.3 million in the MSA, with 519,000 (39.7 percent) in the City of Charlotte. Here’s a chart, because its easier to visualize:

Population is just one way of looking at a market, but when you’re thinking about taxis, its a crude way of looking at it. What matters, really, is the number of trips being had by taxi, and fortunately there’s some data out there for that as well.

Travel Characteristics

Any transportation planner worth their salt knows that the National Household Travel Survey gives us oodles of data on American travel behavior. I know, there are limitations, and sometimes some flukes, but isn’t that the case with any data set? So I drilled down into the numbers and this is what I came up with. (Note: You can see my original query here, and you have to scroll down to get to the the Charlotte, MSA)

The data is kind of hard to read, but basically in its raw form its the annual number of trips, in millions, and you have to divide by 365 to get daily trips. Its a cross tab, so you have the trip purpose on the left, and the mode across the top. I’ve provided both the daily, and the annual trips for your convenience:

So putting it together with population data, we can estimate that the average person in the Charlotte MSA engages in between 3.6 and 4.8 trips a day (depending if we count the under 18 population or not)

Looking at this cross tab, you notice some pretty interesting facts (remember this chart above I made is in daily trips):

There are only about 6,500 taxi trips per day in the entire Charlotte MSA, or 2 million per year.

Taxi use in the Charlotte area is pretty much used for work trips (meaning business, at work trips, not commuting); and social/recreational trips.

The taxi market is pretty small: about 0.09 percent of all trips.

However, the taxi share is 0.35 percent for social/recreational trips; and 0.38 percent for work trips.

Opportunities in Other Modes

While the taxi mode share is small, there can be some opportunity for Uber to pick up market share from other modes. Look at the bike/walk trips: annually, there are 230 million of such trips, and 67 million of them are in the “social/recreation” purpose. While some of the walk/bike trips are going to remain, from personal experience, when Uber enters a market some of those trips become taxi trips when I need to get out of the rain or snow.

Some other speculation can be made for the transit, car, and other modes, but we’d still be just speculating as what can be picked up.

So how much can they pick off? Well, this is where statistics comes in.

Statistical Stuff

An interesting method for developing potential statistics is to use the PERT distribution and Monte Carlo simulation. The PERT process is something that has been used in the military and NASA, and Monte Carlo simulation has been used, well, all over the place. So without boring you with deep stats methods, the bottom line is this: PERT distribution lets you give a professional guess. You only have to estimate a low, most likely, and high “educated” guess at some number to create a full on distribution. Monte Carlo simulation is used to randomly pick a number from the distrubtion.

Overall, doing a bunch of simulations (I like 10,000), Monte Carlo methods let us develop a distribution for the results.

Assuming Some Market Penetration

Like I said, PERT requires you to have an educated guess, pretty much, for a low, most likely, and high value for any variable. Now, the variable I’m looking at is the potential market penetration for each mode in Charlotte.

For the taxi share, I assumed that a “high” market penetration is around 40 percent. This is because 40 percent is around what Uber targeted for a year in New York City.

That is, there are 13,000 yellow cabs, and Uber planned to launch with 105 cabs, add 100 drivers a week, and end up with about 40 percent when you do the math. Just trust me…Ok, fine. 40.8 percent. And yes, I know that 40 percent of cabs using Uber is different than the percent of customers using it. Lets assume for now.

Everything else here is an assumption. I figure on the low end, 5 percent of the taxi share in a year, and somewhere around 20 percent as a reasonable target (half the New York market penetration).

Everything else are some range of guesses. I figure one quarter of a percent for picking off modes from other shares. That can be pretty big, if you assume that one quarter of a percent of all car trips (all 1.2 billion) will ride Uber.

The chart above lets you see the range for this simulation. Again, they are assumptions, and if you have better ones let me know. Lets run the numbers anyways.

Results

Based on the PERT inputs from above, and over 10,000 simulations, here are the results:

Uber can expect an annual ridership of 6.2 million per year. On a 95 percent confidence interval, this is 3.9 million trips on the low end, and 8.5 million trips. Here’s the distribution for your own enjoyment:

Taxi Market Penetration Only Better Results?

Now, some of you might be saying, “Hey, Mike, this seems pretty big for Charlotte.” And my gut instinct is that assuming even a 0.25 market penetration of all car trips might be a bit generous.

Well, the market penetration PERT assumptions for the taxi market at least is based on goals from New York. So, lets focus on just on that.

Here I’m going to focus in on just the existing taxi market, taking out any market penetration in bike/walk, transit, cars, and the “other” category:

Just focusing on taxis, the most likely annual ridership is 414,000 Uber riders. The old 95 percent confidence interval would be 208,000 on the low end and 767,000 on the high end.

Conclusions

Well, one analysis had the trips in the millions, and the other not even getting half a million.

I’d say that the taxi-only results would be a more conservative estimate of this, and probably a baseline to start from. Maybe some market penetration can happen with bike/walk and transit trips, but we don’t know what those are. Hey Uber, you wan’t a better answer? I’d love to know some actual data to make better estimates for this simulation.

For you aspiring transportation planners out there, this is where market surveys come in handy, where you’re asking people their mode share. This would inform better PERT assumptions and give us a nicer analysis.

For now, this is a cool way of looking at it. Let me check in in a year, but looking at my taxi estimate, and adding some fudge factor, I’d say 1 million annual riders in Charlotte would be a good reach goal and something one might strive for. I’ll bet, lets say, one drink on that unless I have better ridership data. Who knows? Maybe they can peel off some single-occupancy vehicle riders and transit users, and get that number up quite a bit.

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Velomobile: Can the ELF Buck History's FAILS in Transportation Tech?

Every now and again we see another vehicle designed by another company that claims to be the disruption in the transportation field to move us past the internal combustion automobile.  Recently, Oragnic Transit has developed a "velomobile" that they are calling the ELF, and they have raised over $250,000 on their Kickstarter campaign.

What Organic Transit has going for it is that it exists in real life, with real models, that also exist in the physical universe. You too can be a proud ELF owner in short time, with the company estimating that Kickstarter donors will get their models by March 2013. While the Kickstarter campaign is over, you can still go over to Organic Transit's website and pre-order. For $4,000 you could get you their base model, while $5,500 could get you the enhanced delivery-oriented TruckIt. 

Honestly, I'm rooting for Organic Transit to succeed and would love to see a new technology take off. I would be quite pleased if they navigated the regulatory environment and got their technology going mainstream, accepted, and wanted. Unfortunately posterity has been unkind to transportation tech companies trying to bring disruptive technology to get us to move a different way. For as long as I've been interested in transportation, I've been following witty technology that I always hoped would take off. Let me list a few that I was excited about, but never took off.  The Segway (2001 - Present)

I remember being excited about the Segway in High School when I read about it. I grew up in suburban Miami, FL, hoping to see a way around that didn't involve me having to have a car. I thought that Dean Kamen, one of Segway's founders and inventors, may have finally disrupted the mobility model for short trips. This was promising in so many ways, and I wasn't the only one to think so. In fact, the now-sainted Steve Jobs initially thought that this could be as big as the personal computer. Revolutionary, I say! Revolutionary! Here was a technology that was fast enough to solve "last mile" transportation needs. With so many of our trips under 5 miles, this could completely eliminate the need for a car if all you do is commute or travel short distances. What could go wrong?  Well many things. First, an initial price tag over $3,000 prevented mass adoption. As Harvard Business Review pointed out, it was a great idea with no market.  There were also quirks with the design - many that el-Jobso himself didn't like.  Read this excerpt from a Working Knowledge article chronicling the time when Steve Jobs and Jeff Bezos first set eyes on the Segway (then named Project Ginger):

"I think it sucks!" said Jobs.

[Steve's] vehemence made Tim pause. “Why?” he asked, a bit stiffly.

“It just does.”

“In what sense?” said Tim, getting his feet back under him. “Give me a clue.”

“Its shape is not innovative, it’s not elegant, it doesn’t feel anthropomorphic,” said Jobs, ticking off three of his design mantras.

“You have this incredibly innovative machine but it looks very traditional.” The last word delivered like a stab. Doug Field and Scott Waters would have felt the wound; they admired Apple’s design sense. Dean’s intuition not to bring Doug had been right. “There are design firms out there that could come up with things we’ve never thought of,” Jobs continued…

Design wasn't the only problem. Critically, Segway failed to navigate the regulatory world in order to foster an environment friendly to adopting the Segway. They needed folks to be able to zip around freely on Segways to achieve any mass adoption and they failed. If the price tag didn't do them in, surely the knife was twisted when they were banned on sidewalks and bike paths in San Francisco and in Boston. In short time there were requirements to have to wear helmets, and the Segway was restricted in more and more cities.  Eventually we now see the Segway as the provence of tour groups, mall cops, and a really nerdy version of polo.  And so it passed that Segway became one of the Ten Biggest Tech Failures of the Past Decade according to Time.  Place it up there with failures like New Coke and the Edsel.   But, secretly...I still sort of want one, if only to play Segway Polo with Woz.   

The Aptera (2005-2011)

Before the Chevy Volt, there was the Aptera by Aptera Motors, a California Based start-up. I'm not gonna lie, I thought the design of the vehicle was pretty bad-ass and would have loved to have one. What it was is a 3-wheeled car that seats two people, with all-electric or hybrid models, and it was going to replace the internal combustion engine model outright. The futurism was ambitious and the goals were lofty.  A few problems happened along. The company failed to keep its finances in check, and they never really got to the production stage of their car. My theory is the design was a bit too edgy for most folks, the specs too vague, and the price too never-released. The death knell was certainly being flanked by the Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf around 2010.  Once the major companies released conventional looking models that were the same idea, this car became just another Volt or Leaf that looked kind of funky with a bunch of tech - a Jetson's vision car who's technology was more-or-less being mass produced by Chevrolet and Nissan. Aptera died in December 2011, filing for Chapter 7 liquidation.  The Commuter Car Tango (2005 - Present?)

I heard a cool story back in aught-five of George Clooney buying this new type of "car". The Commuter Car Tango is a tandem two-seat vehicle that is kind of like a covered motorcycle.  The company apparently still exists, and technically still takes orders, but they've been in that situation since 2005 when I first read about them.

What I liked about this vehicle is that it was small and, technically being a motorcycle, could park in so many more places. For those California folks, they were also promised the right to lane split on highways! Having done so on a Vespa in Los Angeles, I thought this notion was pretty awesome.  However, there is something about price and being too "out there" that has kept this from taking off. You can try for yourself if you have $200k burning a hole in your pants, and put an order in. But I wouldn't put my hopes up on splitting the lanes on the 405 freeway in a mass-production model of this anytime soon.  

Lessons New technology needs mass appeal, good design, and regulatory acceptance.  When you add that with the magic and mystery of marketing, then disruption can happen in a market.

What I fear for the ELF is that the design is edgy for too many to be mass consumed. Also, while classified a "bicycle" in federal regulations, states and municipality regulations vary.  Can I take this on the bike lane or bike trail? It depends on where you are. And I'm not quite sure how other cyclists (as particular and sanctimonious as some can be) will respond to this type of vehicle on their right of way.  Again, I'd love for this to take off. Frankly, I would love to have one myself to commute to the Metro station. But for me personally, the price is a little much, and I'm still a bit unsure if other vehicles on the road will know how to respond to me safely. I'd be willing to take my chances and try it (after all, I did ride a Vespa on the 405 in LA), but not quite sure if I'm shelling out $4 grand anytime soon for an enclosed bicycle. Here's hoping to greater economies of scale and adoption bringing down that price and giving me a new commuting mode. And good luck to the people at Organic Transit. May the gods of regulatory environments and mass appeal be with you.

What are your thoughts? Comments always welcome. 

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The Washington Post:

“Tysons Corner, on the verge of a do-over

By Corinne Reilly, Published: January 3

The first thing to go was the parking lot behind the Container Store. And if all goes according to plan, more lots will be bulldozed — as will dozens of mid-rise office buildings, hotels and car dealerships.

Two years after Fairfax County adopted a radical, four-decade plan to redevelop Tysons Corner, it is finally beginning to happen, block by block, building by building.

Inspired by the decision to run Metro’s new Silver Line through Tysons, the county essentially is undertaking a do-over, one that seeks to replace much of what stands today with an urban, vibrant, walkable, downtown built around residents and rail. It is a monumental task that has never been done on such a grand scale. And there is no turning back.

Even the name has been remade. It is now just Tysons — no “Corner” — a sleeker brand that the marketing people hope will sell “the new downtown.”

“No one in the history of mankind has ever tried to do this” in a place that is already so developed — and developed entirely around cars and commuters, said Christopher Leinberger, with the Metropolitan Policy Program at the Brookings Institution. “There is nowhere to look for a model for this kind of transformation.”

Photo: Bill O’Leary/WASHINGTON POST FILE PHOTO - Lunch-time traffic is seen in Tysons Corner on International Drive.

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"Let's Teach Children Planning" 

Another link from another article I wrote a while back. Still pertinent.

”Planners often encounter ineffective public participation because of the fact that citizens often are not taught planning skills in school, says Michael A. Rodriguez.”  Read more... 

A student builds a Cube City. Image courtesy of www.cubekc.org.

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Is Uber Empowering Female Drivers?

Linda is an immigrant, and had struggled to find her place in the taxi and driving world that tends to be dominated by men. She conveyed that as a female driver, it was tough to be taken seriously, get proper shifts, or generally feel accepted. What Uber enables her to do is use her entrepreneurial skills despite any setbacks she otherwise might face. She's free to engage in business in a business that traditionally has significant barriers to entry. She conveyed a sense of empowerment that this new business model gives her as a driver. Linda could have her own independent business of just herself and her car, set her own hours, and not have to face any "issues" with the larger cab companies. She proudly now works for herself. Importantly, she conveyed a sense of safety and security doing this. Linda was poignant about an issue that many of us (re: men) may not realize: being a female taxi driver can be incredibly dangerous and risky. However, Uber mitigates two of the largest risks.   For one, Linda no longer has to carry any cash on her because the payments are all electronic. Second, the users are registered in Uber so she knows who she's getting. Unlike picking up an anonymous person on the street, this process is significantly safer for her in that regard, Linda mentioned. A last point is that as an independent driver, she is empowered to set her own hours and schedule, allowing her time to see her family when she needs to.  I felt that I really learned something from hearing this experience and talking to Linda. I know now that I was completely in the dark about the viewpoint of female cab drivers because it had never occurred to me so directly until I had this conversation. I feel much better and wiser for the experience.  Finally, this anecdote illustrates just how disruptive innovation and new technology can be a positive force in ways that weren't even originally intended. Who would have thought that Uber's service could have a feminist twist to it?  

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(via Would More Drivers Use Mass Transit if It Mimicked Private Cars?)

Personal Rapid Transit is probably best described as a hybrid between the private car and public transit, with some more familiar elements of the taxi and elevator thrown in. Picture, in short, a pod car. Engineers and researchers (even Google!) have been fantasizing for several decades now about the concept, which would personalize public transit in small vehicles – perhaps running on or hanging from an elevated track – that would transport you straight to your destination without any of the stops and delays of a bus route, or without the cost of a taxi ride.

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Make big plans; aim high in hope and work, remembering that a noble, logical diagram once recorded will not die.

Daniel Burnham

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“Have no fear of change as such and, on the other hand, no liking for it merely for its own sake”

Robert Moses

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“You can't rely on bringing people downtown, you have to put them there.”

Jane Jacobs

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Average Vehicle Occupancy. Whats Up With Idaho Motorcyclists?

First off, I'm new to Tumblr and this is my first post. I envision using this tool in order to write some longer-form posts where it might not make as much sense to use Facebook or Twitter.  So this will be the way I blog from here on out, if I have something to say where I think something is blog worthy. Now, recently at work we were doing some stuff involving looking at Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO).  For those who don't know, AVO is quite simple: the average number of persons per vehicle. This changes by time of day, by roadway, by geography, etc.  It so happens that the national AVO for the U.S. is 1.67 (very golden mean-ish!).  

So the question that I ask:  What is up with Idaho?  Appearantly, they are able to fit more people on a motorcycle, on average, than vans.  Very intersting indeed. Any thoughts on what is going on here? Perhaps someone filling out the survey thought they were being funny? Even with government data, we should allow for the possibility that there are sometimes validity issues. Let me know what you think!