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YOU ARE THE REASON
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let's talk about Bridgerton tea, my ask is open
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@triviallytrue
If you're looking for the linux post click here
Sideblogs:
@vacuouslyfalse: history sideblog where I post quotes and occasional analysis of the history books I'm reading, and longer-form posts about discourse/politics/history.
@excludedmiddle: misc interests sideblog, includes coding competitions, chess, RPG discussion, and sc2/other gaming stuff, in approximate order of frequency.
Writing I like
About me, I guess:
vote blue no matter who guys love saying "trump would be even worse on palestine" but literally how could he possibly be worse than biden short of nuking the gaza strip. biden might be the single most zionist president in US history lol
honestly i don't think there is a vote in the 2024 election that makes a difference for Gaza. i think Trump will be as bad or slightly worse, but for the Palestinians, more likely than not it will not have a major impact.
four possible-to-likely ways Trump could be worse:
more direct conflict with Iran. this doesn't really help or hurt Gaza directly but will set the entire region on fire, which is bad for basically everyone.
explicit support for Israeli settlements in the West Bank and resettlement of Gaza. Trump already has a settlement named after him, providing US sanction directly to these is possible
more support for Netanyahu. i think Biden dislikes him and Trump likes him, and he's a fair bit worse than even the very bad Israeli centrists
closer to home, he did say this shit
but even if Trump can make things worse (and i do think he always can) it's completely impossible to make the argument to vote for Biden to help Gaza. Biden is not going to help Gaza.
i would like to get off this ride please
posts that have aged
READ MORE | Save Standard Time
Ditch Daylight Saving Time with permanent Standard Time for health!
is being a morning person (and not even having the decency to be apologetic about it) grounds for breaking mutualship with somebody
yeah
no
Kaia I am SO glad you asked.
Damn hope you die
your fursona is tacky and uninspired
the thing about the monty hall problem is that, at the end of the day, the chance is still just 50/50, the best you can do is a coin toss.
its really simple, your first choice was 1/3 chance of winning and then your second choice is 1/2 chance of winning so your chances do improve if you switch, so you should switch.
There are three doors, 1, 2, and 3. You decide, arbitrarily, that you're always going to pick door 1 first - it doesn't really matter since the doors are all indistinguishable at the start.
Then there are three possible scenarios:
Scenario A: [car] [goat] [goat]
Scenario B: [goat] [car] [goat]
Scenario C: [goat] [goat] [car]
These scenarios are equally probable - it's equally likely that you'll find yourself in A, B, or C, each with probability 1 in 3.
In Scenario A, you have picked door 1. Both door 2 and door 3 contain goats, so half the time door 2 is eliminated and half the time door 3 is eliminated. In both cases, you win if you stay and lose if you switch. So in Scenario A, 1 in 3 times, you lose if you switch and win if you stay.
In scenario B, you have picked door 1. Door 2 contains a car and door 3 contains a goat, so door 3 is always eliminated. If you switch you get door 2, which has a car, so in Scenario B, 1 in 3 times, you win if you switch and lose if you stay.
In scenario C, you have picked door 1. Door 3 contains a car and door 2 contains a goat, so door 2 is always eliminated. If you switch you get door 3, which has a car, so in Scenario C, 1 in 3 times, you win if you switch and lose if you stay.
As we said at the start, these scenarios are all equally likely, so switching wins 2 out of 3 times and loses 1 out of 3 times.
Technically, we've simplified the problem a bit by saying we're always picking door 1. But since the doors start out indistinguishable, this doesn't actually change the numbers at all - you could rerun the scenarios with the exact same result if you picked door 2 or door 3. In a mathematical proof, we would say "without loss of generality, we pick door 1."
๐ or, if you want to convince a layperson of it just propose the same problem but with 52 doors
๐ y'know, a deck of cards
๐ pick a card any card, if you have the ace of spades you win, but no looking at it now
๐ i will now discard every card except one
๐ the ace of spades is among the two that remain
๐ wanna swap?
people have proposed this kind of thing a lot (the classic "what if there were 100 doors and you eliminated 98" thing) but i have always found it profoundly unconvincing. if you can intuitively grasp why eliminating 50 cards in that case is the same as eliminating 1 door in the monty hall case, you likely aren't going to struggle with the problem.
the thing about the monty hall problem is that, at the end of the day, the chance is still just 50/50, the best you can do is a coin toss.
its really simple, your first choice was 1/3 chance of winning and then your second choice is 1/2 chance of winning so your chances do improve if you switch, so you should switch.
There are three doors, 1, 2, and 3. You decide, arbitrarily, that you're always going to pick door 1 first - it doesn't really matter since the doors are all indistinguishable at the start.
Then there are three possible scenarios:
Scenario A: [car] [goat] [goat]
Scenario B: [goat] [car] [goat]
Scenario C: [goat] [goat] [car]
These scenarios are equally probable - it's equally likely that you'll find yourself in A, B, or C, each with probability 1 in 3.
In Scenario A, you have picked door 1. Both door 2 and door 3 contain goats, so half the time door 2 is eliminated and half the time door 3 is eliminated. In both cases, you win if you stay and lose if you switch. So in Scenario A, 1 in 3 times, you lose if you switch and win if you stay.
In scenario B, you have picked door 1. Door 2 contains a car and door 3 contains a goat, so door 3 is always eliminated. If you switch you get door 2, which has a car, so in Scenario B, 1 in 3 times, you win if you switch and lose if you stay.
In scenario C, you have picked door 1. Door 3 contains a car and door 2 contains a goat, so door 2 is always eliminated. If you switch you get door 3, which has a car, so in Scenario C, 1 in 3 times, you win if you switch and lose if you stay.
As we said at the start, these scenarios are all equally likely, so switching wins 2 out of 3 times and loses 1 out of 3 times.
Technically, we've simplified the problem a bit by saying we're always picking door 1. But since the doors start out indistinguishable, this doesn't actually change the numbers at all - you could rerun the scenarios with the exact same result if you picked door 2 or door 3. In a mathematical proof, we would say "without loss of generality, we pick door 1."
IT'S DARK AT 5 PM I AM GOING TO [remembers suicide jokes only worsen my mental health] MAIL AN INCENDIARY DEVICE TO THE PERSONAL DWELLING OF TUMBLR USER PHAETON-FLIER
The funny thing about people complaining about needing DST to have enough sunlight because of jobs is. If you work a standard 9-5 job, then you have more time to get sunlight before work than after work. So long as you're not sleeping in till the latest time possible, you too can have sunlight hours.
fuck you fuck you fuck you fuck you fuck you fuck you FUCK YOU
Hi Triv. It's Phaeton from the future. If you see this in your notes the next time you peek in on the hellsite, know that I stand by this and have zero sympathy for any member of the tyrannical night person class.
CURSE OF RA ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ก ๐ข ๐ฃ ๐ค ๐ฅ ๐ฆ ๐ง ๐จ ๐ฉ ๐ช ๐ซ ๐ฌ ๐ญ ๐ฎ ๐ฏ ๐ฐ ๐ฑ ๐ฒ ๐ณ ๐ด ๐ต ๐ถ ๐ท ๐ธ ๐น ๐บ ๐ป ๐ผ ๐ฝ ๐พ ๐ฟ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐
happy one year(ish) to mostly abandoning this blog! it's been a pretty great year for me - i got a new job that's much more engaging, i've been working out a lot and i'm in much better shape than i was a year ago, and i spent the past few months learning a new skill and hanging out with my friends.
make no mistake though, i am still exactly as online as i used to be and none of these improvements are due to spending less time on the internet. there is no escape from Online - all i can do is decide how much of it i want to spend getting yelled at by strangers that i do not like or respect
Hey remember when you had a racist meltdown because you couldn't comprehend that Palestinians have access to the internet? Didn't you throw a whole pity party about leaving? God you're pathetic.
in retrospect i think the big mistake i made with this blog was not immediately treating every self-identified ML as having shit idiot brain fungus on par with the terfs or the white supremacists
A random assortment of writing that has stuck with me especially hard
Seven Swords for Difficult Problems
a meditation on boundaries
Hot Allostatic Load
Forgiveness
Issendai's series on estranged parent forums
The Asshole Filter
I Am A Transwoman. I Am In The Closet. I Am Not Coming Out.
Everything is Correlated
explain to me how gears are machined
2023 additions
a tour of the common failure modes of left wing thought
Different Worlds
an AI risk effortpost
The Housing Theory of Everything
The A Button Challenge and its applications
2024 additions
I Will Fucking Piledrive You If You Mention AI Again
Why I don't believe in the placebo effect
Identify the relevant agent
How two students built an A-bomb
Trauma As Physics
How I cut GTA Online loading times by 70%
2025 additions
Some Journeys to the West
the void
Sex and Moral Sight
I Want to Believe in Abundance
Will Jesus Christ return in an election year?
thinking about julius ceasar crossing the comic con again and want to get your take. julius caesar crossing the comic con, the anime expo. I've discussed this before. what's your take on julius caesar crossing the anime expo in his julius caesar in his uhm, deadpool cosplay probably. I believe julius caesar would watch deadpool 2016 and decide he is a big fan but not really be able to get trhough many of the comic books without being like "this is a bunch of dumb bullshit for kids" but sort of pretend he read them to establish a cultural identity as like, a suburban dad-level "nerd" guy. and anyway he'd like memorize a couple of deadpool's catchphrases (I don't know shit about deadpool, I assume he has some) and then he'd like say them for the camera etc. to youtubers filming and maybe he'd even go up to some girls and like, be a little too pushy like totally "ironically" in-costume flirting with them, emboldened by the fact that he was wearing a mask, but then like afterwards feel super weird about it. he'd julius caesar crossing the comic con in a deadpool costume. invading rome defying the senate by crossing the comic con. julius caesar at anime expo 2015 looking forward to the new season of, attack on titan or whatever.
from the archives
hey guys i finally beat Balatro
How do you even accomplish something like this omg...
here's the world record speedrun of this type of thing if you're curious
short answer: plasma deck, mime and baron, 4 copiers (blueprint/brainstorm), ectoplasm and antimatter for extra joker slots, DNA to bring the deck up to a large enough size, and boss reroll voucher so you can fight The Serpent with burglar so you can get enough handsize for the final hand
hey guys i finally beat Balatro
vote blue no matter who guys love saying "trump would be even worse on palestine" but literally how could he possibly be worse than biden short of nuking the gaza strip. biden might be the single most zionist president in US history lol
honestly i don't think there is a vote in the 2024 election that makes a difference for Gaza. i think Trump will be as bad or slightly worse, but for the Palestinians, more likely than not it will not have a major impact.
four possible-to-likely ways Trump could be worse:
more direct conflict with Iran. this doesn't really help or hurt Gaza directly but will set the entire region on fire, which is bad for basically everyone.
explicit support for Israeli settlements in the West Bank and resettlement of Gaza. Trump already has a settlement named after him, providing US sanction directly to these is possible
more support for Netanyahu. i think Biden dislikes him and Trump likes him, and he's a fair bit worse than even the very bad Israeli centrists
closer to home, he did say this shit
but even if Trump can make things worse (and i do think he always can) it's completely impossible to make the argument to vote for Biden to help Gaza. Biden is not going to help Gaza.
i would like to get off this ride please
two things i feel relatively certain about:
1) one day weโll all look back on sj culture wars discourse as emblematic of a very specific time period, much in the way we look at the atheism discourse of an earlier era
2) whatever comes next will be even worse
hod dog ๐คค๐คค๐คค
hog dod
