Yashika's blog

[yashikablog]

weak ISM 41.5 as well as PMI 36.1

but stronger than estimated .. what worth are the estimates ..?

Apple provides no guidance, of course

Trump suggesting to provide moving expenses to companies back to US .. his original plan

once again tariffs are in limelight ..

bottom-line, someone is accountable (even if we can’t find who is responsible) for this trillions of dollars of loss of activity world-wide .. especially, if its going to cost trump his reelection, which was all in the bag prior to corona .. & knowing Trump, he is not going to take it lightly ..!

[yashikablog]

Is it sell in May & you can’t go away ...?

as you still got to stay at home .. right ..!

market is already down 4%, from yesterday overnight to tonight ..!

[yashikablog]

IJC: 3.84M

teenies at .6, likely to test Mar low

Chicago PMI april 35.4 same as in March 2009

but among all data points, what’s not correlated is stock valuations, not even close to Mar 2009 or Mar 2020, but tomorrow starts the “sell in May season” ..!

[yashikablog]

feds left rates unchanged ..

so, money is available for free as rates stay at zero ... & ready to buy mortgage as well as junk for foreseeable future; plus keep repo market live.

[yashikablog]

corona turned out to be a female ..!

as a study found that men are twice more likely to die with corona than women, as she prefers men .. a true gender bias even with viruses .. funny ..!

separately, US has lost more lives to corona than in Vietnam war.

[yashikablog]

Q1 GDP shrunk 4.8% ...

& the beginning of a much awaited recession that people has been asking

the news was overpowered momentarily with NIH data on Gilead ..

pending home sales 20.8% down ...

great to her Pelosi talking about bringing supply chain and manauf. back to USA .. is she in agreement with Trump now ? WoW ..!

waiting to hear at FOMC .. but are expecting anything from Fed ?

[yashikablog]

& now the reality is starting to sync in ...

the states are at the brink of bankruptcy .. which will have serious ripple effects on Munis/

states/Governors should realize that only feds have the power to print .. so why pick a fight ..?

what can i say, its human behavior ..!

[yashikablog]

TheVIP Ventures

[yashikablog]

central bankers around the world will become the garbage collectors ...

why ..?

because they will be buying & hoarding everything on earth including junk ..!

Japan just announced that they will be making unlimited bond purchases.

[yashikablog]

all the job gains since 2009 are gone ..

IJC: 4.4M

[yashikablog]

an absurd Pelosi logic ..

this is her logic ..

Russians are trying to meddle with US elections .. okay!

so we need funds to protect us .. how ..?

by allowing voting by mail .. really ..!

sounds like a late night joke ..!

i think she is playing a wrong role ..!

[yashikablog]

we are at war w/o weapons

a virus from China cripples the $23T US economy over weeks and brings it to virtual halt .. including airlines and retail - two key sectors of consumer economy.

China is a major part of US supply chain .. so there is no way anyone will dare to comment on them at this point.

a glut of oil by Saudis & Russia crashes oil price ... price of crude went negative today ... it hurts US oil industry that has led to US oil independence but can’t survive at this price, as it is loaded with mountain of debt  ...!

US factories production diverted to manuf. mask and other PPE in a war-like situation.

US thinking about launching a ”war-like” bonds issue.

so we are already at war .. just not in traditional way ... think about it  ..!

[yashikablog]

finance has proved math wrong ...

May WTI crude has gone negative $35 .. i.e. dropped below 100%,

negative 200% to be precise.

crude is being sold at a negative price .. beyond making any sense ..!

why, because if you are holding a contract, you are supposed to take a delivery tomorrow .. & if you do that, where would you hold that oil ..?

the question is does S&P deserve a value 2800 or 1800 ?

[yashikablog]

have a place to hoard some crude ?

its $10 a barrel today ? almost beating the 1999 price ..

how good is oil, if no one wants it .. that gives a thought to what’s essential to life .. water or oil ?

[yashikablog]

Trump  - a “smart politician” i have seen in a while ..

he ran on the agenda to bring manuf. back to USA .. that many countries are ripping us as non-reciprocal deals ... yes, the world knows that its not easy to deal with China ..!

further, corona taught a necessary lesson; in last 20+ years most the wars were fought in middle-east, where they don’t manuf. anything, well, except oil, but they need US for know-how .. but what if you want to go war with a country, & the same country produces a piece of an essential item of your supply chain .. you practically lose the war before it begins ..!

think about it ..!

[yashikablog]

US LEI -6.7% similar to drop in output in China -6.8%

[yashikablog]

fed BS $6.4T ...

its like storing all your garbage in garage .. but keeping it aside doesn’t make it better over time .. it’s still garbage.