Alberto Nardelli @albertonardelli - Tumblr Blog

#IndyRef polls vs betting markets

A piece in the UpShot concludes that betting markets performed better than polls, as bettors gave the no vote an 80% chance of winning.

In reality it’s more complicated than that.

From the same piece: “Betting on the likely winning margin also suggested that the No vote was most likely to win by around 4 points”.

The same margin as the poll of polls.

The main difference between betting markets and polls is that the former appear more stable over time, and fluctuate less compared to the attention given to individual polls. This though has as much to do with how many look at standalone polls over an average of polls and trends. When one poll is different to most others - it becomes news.

The second distortion is how probability is understood and reported - the average of polls wasn’t too far off from an 80% chance of a no win, but tended to be reported as too close to call.

In conclusion, betting markets were more stable over time, the gap within polls tightened significantly in the last month of the campaign - and the referendum result implies than on this measure they were better than polls - but it’s not so straightforward to then untangle if this has more to do with the dynamics inherent to polling models and betting markets, or with how we understand and perceive the two differently.

You can find a longer piece on the mediocre performance of independence referendum polls here.

#indyref #opinion polls

EU Q2 2014 GDP Y/Y

Data via Eurostat.

Green means good, pinks means bad. The darker the green gets, from left to right, the better. The darker the pink becomes, from left to right, it's getting worse.

EU youth unemployment

Rate:

EU youth unemployment rate: 22% Greece 56.3% Spain 53.5% Italy 43.7% Poland 23.6% France 22.4% UK 17.9% Germany 7.8% pic.twitter.com/reNIarg9K9

— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli)

July 31, 2014

Updated with the latest UK figures:

Long-term unemployment rate:

Nearly 30% of young people aged 15-29 in Greece unemployed for longer than a year. <2% in DE, NL, LU, DK, SWE, AT, FI pic.twitter.com/Cx0fIYuMeH

— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli)

July 31, 2014

Ratio:

Youth unemployment ratio across Europe - Greece, Spain, then all the rest pic.twitter.com/fvGfxROyq6

— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli)

July 31, 2014

As quite a few people on my Twitter timeline seem confused, you can find a definition of unemployment ratio here, while detailed definitions of ILO indicators can be found here. You can find complete employment data over at Eurostat.

There are green areas in France's unemployment figures

Le Monde has published a terrific interactive map showing how the number of jobseekers in France has evolved since 1996.

Unemployment in the country continues to rise.

President Hollande's popularity is moving in the opposite direction.

The number of jobseekers has risen significantly since 2008.

As opposed to the previous six years.

The numbers continued to increase since 2009.

And over the past two years.

Over the past year, while the figures have continued to go up pretty much everywhere, the increase is slowing and there are bits of green in some areas.

You can see how the figures have evolved every year since 1996 over at Le Monde.

#france

The stronger the sanctions, the less Russians seem to be concerned

Recent polls from Levada show that 66% of Russians have a negative view of sanctions, 3% view them positively, and 28% are indifferent. Nevertheless, 60% of Russians feel that their country should maintain a collaborative relationship with the west, while 30% think cooperation should be limited due to the current situation in Ukraine.

Interestingly, as sanctions have increased, the concern towards sanctions has decreased.

Why is this?

As context, it is important to keep in mind that 94% of those following events in Ukraine (about 95% of respondents in Levada polls) say they get their news via TV, 27% friends and family, 18% the internet, 15% radio, 11% social networks and 11% newspapers.

Secondly, most respondents feel the impact of sanctions is restricted to a small group of people.

Thirdly, Russians have very strong opinions on events in Ukraine and who they feel is to blame for events in the south east of the country.

In short, the perception of events in Ukraine, and consequently public opinion surrounding these, is primarily - and significantly so - driven by how these events are reported and framed on TV.

All this also helps to explain why President Putin's approval is close to an all-time high.

#Russia - President Putin’s popularity rating hit 86% in June, 2 points from equalling all-time high (Sept 2008) pic.twitter.com/R17rhIJSKO

— electionista (@electionista)

June 26, 2014

The Levada polls used in this piece can be found here, here and here.

#ukraine #russia

The Spring 2014 Eurobarometer in 7 charts

The European Commission has released the Spring edition of the Eurobarometer. The Europe-wide survey is carried out by TNS. Here are the 7 key findings:

1. Image of the EU

2. Attitude towards EU citizenship

3. Views of each member country’s economy

4. Views on the euro

5. Most important issues facing the EU by country

6. On the future of the euro

7. On the future of the EU

#eurobarometer #EU

Why do young people in some countries live with their parents well into their 30s? It's complicated

The share of young(ish) people living with their parents varies considerably across Europe:

Share of young people living with their parents: Denmark 1.8% France 11.5% UK 14.4% Italy 46.6% (via @miroslavhajnos) pic.twitter.com/BrGnVzPT7A

— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli)

July 16, 2014

In many countries the trend is driven by culture.

@AlbertoNardelli @JohnRentoul @miroslavhajnos The percentages are directly proportional to the quality of Mama's cooking.

— Pacific Weather (@pacificweather)

July 17, 2014

The above chart is from this piece over at Quartz. In describing how the numbers have changed over the past five years, the article notes that for example the number of 25- to 34-year-olds in Spain has plunged by 16% over the past five years - many have left the country.

In addition to culture and current economic context, very different welfare systems (mainly in terms of unemployment benefits) are also a key factor here. Welfare systems vary significantly between countries, especially in terms of eligibility and qualifying period, coverage rates and duration.

For example, Denmark is one of only five countries in Europe where the self-employed have the same entitlement to unemployment benefits as employees. You can find comparative details of different systems in Europe at the end of this report (PDF) and using the MISSOC database. Furthermore, even though tuition is free, students in Denmark have access to an extremely generous (and universal) grants system, which provides about €750/month for those not living with parents.

A more homogenous variable is the link between employment and those staying at home. The following maps using Eurostat data show recent unemployment rates among 25-29 and 25-49 year olds (I was unable to easily find data for 25-34 year olds only).

While not the only driver, there is a clear link between the unemployment data and the numbers still living at home with their parents.

There has also been a shift in terms of type of employment. In average, between 2007-2012, there was a >2% increase in the proportion of employees in temporary jobs.

More than one in three of those living with their parents is in temporary employment.

For most people this isn't out of choice.

All this has played (or is likely to over time) a role in stagnant or falling disposable income in several countries. While in other countries, where median income has increased, such as Estonia, Latvia and Slovenia, the numbers living with their parents have fallen.

Young adults aged 20-34 living with their parents in the UK, 1996-2013

Charts via eurostat and this UN report.

In conclusion, to answer the question - it's a combination of culture, multiple economic and labour factors, and welfare systems - but not necessarily, nor always, in that order: it’s extremely complicated. While every country has specific and diverse characteristics, and culture and welfare systems in many ways act as a "baseline", more recent labour market trends are as significant as mamma's cooking.

EU naturalisations and immigration in charts

Germany’s stats office announced today that there were 112,350 naturalisations in the country in 2013. The 10-year average in Germany is 113,400 (the 2013 drop is primarily driven by the fall in naturalisations from Turkey).

Relatively high compared to other EU member states:

via eurostat

And significantly, here are naturalisations in select countries as a % of immigrant population - a useful indicator of country attitudes towards immigration?

Graph via StanieriinItalia

TNS: % immigrant pop., actual/estimated by voters: PT 8%/35% UK 12%/31% IT 9%/25% FR 12%/25% ES 15%/24% NL 11%/23% DE 13%/20% SE 15%/18%

— electionista (@electionista)

January 1, 2014

GMF/TNS: % who view immigration more as a problem: UK 64%, 29% as an opportunity FR 50, 39 IT 46, 32 ES 44, 44 NL 41, 46 PT 41, 50 DE 32, 62

— electionista (@electionista)

September 18, 2013

#immigration #politics

England's, and more recently Italy's, footballing challenges in lots of charts

Following yet another World Cup that ended in failure there was the usual post-tournament analysis to dissect the reasons England consistently falls short at major tournaments. "We need to be more like Germany" is the new "We need to be more like Spain. Let’s bring some tiki-taka to the Stadium of Light”.

Now it's all over let's remember England's most memorable moment #WC2014Brasil #england pic.twitter.com/qIXSmEQduN

— Viking Flagship (@Stoss66)

July 13, 2014

One of the most popular exercises repeated every two years is the pointing of fingers at the number of foreigners in the Premier League.

It is true that the Premier League has more foreign players compared to other top divisions, and that the trend in England (and Italy) has moved in the opposite direction to say Germany over the past few seasons:

Yet, the impact of this shouldn’t be overstated nor looked at in isolation. In 2013 for example, there were more international transfers in Germany (345) than in most top divisions:

This map shows the number of players signed up to football clubs, across all divisions, and categories - this is the starting point - everyone loves football. Germans take it very seriously:

The following chart shows the number of players in top divisions that played for their club's youth team for at least three seasons between the age of 15-21:

The trend in average age in top divisions:

The principle isn't limited to top clubs. Even at a younger level, German teams need to hit quotas of players eligible for national youth teams. Clubs have an obligation to invest in youth development. And, when it comes to players coming through the youth ranks, Spain, despite a transitional World Cup, still leads the way.

The link between youth development and top divisions is the critical metric here.

Short-term thinking vs long-term planning.

The argument goes that it’s a price worth paying as the Premier League is the most successful franchise of them all. To some extent, commercially at least, this is true - as revenue (excluding players) shows:

The table though also highlights how Premier League revenue is primarily driven by media income (51% the average). Other areas, such as sponsorship and ticket sales show a far more balanced picture across divisions.

Premier League clubs also spend the most - these are the costs for the top leagues:

This spending divide is primarily directed towards player salaries (chart 1 vs operational costs in chart 2):

Simply put, the Premier League generates the most through TV rights, and spends the most to buy the world's best players. There is nothing wrong with that. For the benefit of global audiences, the Premier League and Serie A have early kick offs. The Bundesliga doesn't as it would make it difficult for away fans to travel.

It really comes down to how you measure success and the purpose of the game.

Finances? Actual profit and loss (average, and aggregate):

How many people are filling stadia week in, week out?

Trophies and World Cup winners?

World Cup winners by club: 1. Juve 2. Bayern Munich 3. Inter Serie A dominates (via http://t.co/awQJYPrjss) pic.twitter.com/MCQZylHB2E

— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli)

July 14, 2014

World Cups: #BRA 5 #GER 4 #ITA 4 #ARG 2 #URU 2 #FRA 1 #ESP 1 #ENG 1

— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli)

July 13, 2014

A glorious past, but the worry from an Italian point of view is that club teams are getting older, young players aren't breaking through, and unlike England, infrastructure is poor and there is no commercial justification - teams are losing money, the best players stay away (unless they're nearing their 30s), spending is second only to English clubs and stadia are empty. In many ways a mirror of the wider situation in the country. Italy won the World Cup in 2006, and two years ago reached the final of the European Championship defeating Germany along the way - these recent successes place the team's difficulties on a different level to England. Yet, the trends aren't promising.

The Premier League is an extraordinary spectacle. Every week magnificent teams pack the best grounds in Europe. The Hollywood of football. The Harlem Globetrotters model. There is nothing inherently wrong with this, but it is an approach to football that cannot be replicated by a national team. In the long term, the challenge (aka failure at major tournaments) arises when a country's entire system of football is put to the service of the short-term spectacle. But, no need to worry, the Barclays Premier League begins in 32 days.

(all charts via the FIGC 2014 calcio census)

#football

Die Mannschaft

When Germany reunified, Miroslav Klose was 12. While four members of the German squad weren’t yet born. Back in 1990, today's squad was, in average, just above 2.5 years old.

#football #worldcup

Italy's north-side divide seen through connectivity and internet usage

Via Eurostat:

19% of EU population aged 16–74 has never used a computer. Above 35% in nine Italian regions http://t.co/Xpa7IDLQAU pic.twitter.com/7U5qbiETeE

— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) July 11, 2014

EU broadband connections: London has the highest connectivity (94% of households), Italy’s clear north-south divide: pic.twitter.com/74lqemsje4

— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) July 11, 2014

72% in the EU use the internet at least once a week, >90% in parts of northern countries. <50% in south of Italy pic.twitter.com/hTAJNLYLcc

— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) July 11, 2014

54 years ago today

54 years ago today, the first European Championship final. A game between what are now 22 different countries.

The USSR defeated Yugoslavia 2-1 after extra-time.

#football #history

An exercise in futility

The fundamental flaw at the heart of attempts to develop a statistical model capable of predicting every game of a World Cup can be explained in one word: soccer.

Very few nations have won a World Cup. While there are surprises (and shocks) along the way, in the end, the winner eventually emerges from a very small pool. 76 teams have taken part in at least one World Cup. Brazil, Italy and Germany have been winners on 12 occasions, and at least one of the three has been present in 16 of the 19 finals played so far. On Sunday, that becomes 17 of 20 as Germany plays in a record 8th final. Argentina are seeking their fifth final, the Netherlands a fourth go at winning the cup for the first time. [Update: Argentina won]

Of the 12 times Germany has faced a host country in a major tournament, they’ve been victorious 10 times. Hardly a black swan.

Yet, attempting to build a statistical model to predict the result of every game in a World Cup is a futile exercise. At best such a model tells us who is the favourite in each game, and aims to quantify by how much. I am not convinced there is sufficient value in essentially saying so little. And, there is definitely no greater insight than that provided by betting markets.

Simplifying, these models mostly apply variables that are apt to US sports - especially, recent form, player performance and various offence- and defence-related metrics.

This approach doesn’t fit football for at least five reasons:

1. possession - the ability to keep the ball, and sense of position when the other team has the ball - plays a key role. The concept of possession as intended in football is fundamentally alien to most American sports.

2. football is fluid - teams attack and defend as a unit, they don’t take turns in playing attack and defence. Tactics are fundamentally different. You can play for a draw, you can score after one minute, or take 94 to score the only goal. The system is king.

(Photo: AP)

3. the type of chances created and the ability to convert these, and the ability to impede the other team from creating chances, matters more than “shots on goal” and “saves”. You can attack for 81 minutes, then along come Diego and Claudio Paul Caniggia.

(Photo: Ross Kinnaird/Empics Sport/PA Photos)

4. history - winning the World Cup requires a team with exceptional technical and tactical ability, combined with mental/psychological and physical strength. An exquisite cocktail that needs to peak as a unit over 7 games played in the course of a month (every four years) - no real room for error - there are surprises en route, but in the end very few teams have what it takes to lift the World Cup.

5. the beauty of sport is often encapsulated in moments that become lasting memories. Pirlo’s touch for Grosso, the left-back strikes, he becomes the unlikeliest of heroes. The ball in the opposite corner via a perfect trajectory. Germany defeated, for the first time ever, in the Westfalenstadion. Football is a game of moments even more so than most other sports. Zenga, the world’s best goalkeeper, miscalculating a cross, Diego’s hand and genius, Suarez’s incisors, a bad referee, a crossbar, Cerezo’s misplaced pass, North Korea v Italy in 1966, South Korea v Italy in 2002, how Zidane so differently used his head in 1998 and 2006, the moment last night in which 11 Brazilian heads collectively imploded in 76 seconds - moments change, and can decide, games. True in many sports, more so in football.

(Photos via BBC, Perenyi/Augenklic, expertfootball.com/)

Statistical models applied to predicting football results tell us what we already know - who is the favourite. Even though they assign probability to a favourite’s odds, for these models to be deemed significantly accurate - i.e. useful or insightful - the favourite needs to (almost) always win. An insight which reveals the obvious is pointless. Thus far there is no evidence to suggest that a statistical model can consistently predict games where the favourite doesn't win. When it comes to football this matters greatly: in the Numbers Game (Anderson and Sally), the authors find that pre-game favourites win 54% of the time in football, compared with 60% to 70% in baseball, basketball and American football.

(Photo: Getty)

The complex beauty of football is in the fact the favourite doesn’t always get their way. When we think we’ve seen and know it all, Germany puts 7 past Brazil in a World Cup semifinal.

(Photo: ANP)

#football #worldcup #world cup

Germany vs the host

Won 9 1. 1962 (Chile)

2. 1972 (Belgium)

1972 (June 14) Belgium 1-West Germany 2... by sp1873 3. 1976 (Yugoslavia)

1976 (June 17) Yugoslavia 2-West Germany 4... by sp1873 4. 1982 (Spain)

5. 1986 (Mexico)

6. 1992 (Sweden)

1992 (June 21) Sweden 2-Germany 3 (European... by sp1873 7. 1996 (England)

1996 (June 26) England 1-Germany 1 (European... by sp1873

8. 2002 (South Korea)

9. 2008 (Austria)

Lost 2 1. 1958 (Sweden)

2. 1966 (England)

#football #world cup #worldcup

Moving on

I am delighted to be joining the Guardian in September as data editor.

After nearly 6 years, the time has come for me to move on from Tweetminster. I will be formally leaving the company on August 1, handing over day-to-day operations to Tweetminster’s chairman, John Arnold.

I am very proud of what Tweetminster has achieved over the past 67 months.

I'm alive! http://tweetminster.co.uk/

— Tweetminster (@tweetminster)

December 17, 2008

When we launched Tweetminster back in December 2008 there were four MPs on Twitter. Many at the time said that the Twitter would never catch on, but evidence would suggest that it eventually did

The number of MPs on Twitter is now in double digits. Welcome @edvaizey ! (thanks to @danversbaillieu for spotting!).

— Tweetminster (@tweetminster)

January 21, 2009

There are now more than 450 MPs on Twitter. Many of the ideas Tweetminster pioneered during the 2010 UK general election - including Twitter Q&As with heads of government and ministers, and using Twitter data to analyse and map political trends and live events - have now become standard industry practice.

Just over two years ago we launched electionista as a service to follow elections around the world. In 2013, we covered over 100 votes. The idea behind electionista is simple - covering a global niche using data and new formats to tell stories. This idea is what I will be focussing on moving forward.

The Tweetminster journey has been a fantastic experience, and while not everything always went to plan, we put in a few good runs. I’ve learnt a lot, had the opportunity to meet remarkable people and build many friendships. I’ve had the privilege to work on stuff that I love alongside amazing people. There are far too many individuals and organisations, which have made the journey special, to say thank you to each individually, but you know who you are - thank you. I would especially like to thank Misja, Andrew, John, Brad and, of course, Alice - without you all, the journey would not have been possible. I know that it wasn’t always easy, so thank you. It is the journey that matters most. That is what lasts, and all things considered, it was quite a magnificent ride and I am immensely grateful to everyone that made it possible.

I wish Tweetminster well, and may the company continue to grow under John’s leadership for many more years to come.

When we launched Tweetminster we didn’t know how the idea would develop. We did have a vision though - to make politics more open, social, and a little bit cooler. We believed in the power of connecting people, and in Twitter’s unique ability to enable this.

I hope that over the past six years or so, Tweetminster has inspired, and provided a small contribution to making politics more open, social, and a little bit cooler.

Moving on.

The Guardian is one of the few global news organisations that still comprehensively focuses and invests in international news, and never has there been a more exciting time to join a news organisation. The Guardian pioneered data journalism, and I'm thrilled by the prospect of working with some of the most talented names in journalism to build world class data-driven storytelling and new formats to cover global news events.

Chancellor Merkel is Germany's number one fan

Yesterday German Chancellor flew into Brazil to watch Germany thump Portugal 4-0 in their opening game of the World Cup. According to newspaper Bild, first thing this morning she was back at her desk in Berlin.

Photo: AP

Ok. @Podolski10 wins at selfies pic.twitter.com/2klnzwaNdt (via @ZDF)

— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) June 16, 2014

Great shot from the #GER dressing room via @RegSprecher pic.twitter.com/nW7wqioZJd #WorldCup

— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) June 16, 2014

It's not the first time the Chancellor attended a Germany game, as these shots via Bild show:

2008 v Turkey. Photo: AP

2012 vs Greece. Photo: DAPD

2010 QF. Photo: AP

2006 vs Poland. Photo: dpa

2008 vs Turkey. Photo: imago

2006, final for the 3rd/4th place. Photo: imago.

All pics via Bild.

The first game the Chancellor watched live was East Germany vs England in 1974. 1-1 the final score in Leipzig.

In 2012 she told the Economist that while she didn’t do dinner parties, she would like to have Vicente del Bosque to supper, and once hinted to have preferred Johan Cruyff to Franz Beckenbauer.

At home, Chancellor Merkel is an honorary member of 3rd division team FC Energie Cottbus.

Photo: REGIERUNGonline

In this 2010 interview with Süddeutsche Zeitung in which the Chancellor chats about tactics, the history of the game and football growing up in East Germany, Merkel says that even if she didn't like the game, as Chancellor it would be an honour to attend matches of the national team as it is about representing her country. Merkel adds that there is though an added joy being an enthusiast of the game as she doesn't though have to force herself to attend matches. Asked what she loves most about the game? 'the tension, and that you can win with teams with very diverse characteristics', and the difference between watching games at the stadium and at home? 'I can swear in front of the TV'. Like any football fan.

My top-10 World Cup moments

Inspired by @DPJHodges:

1. Grosso v Germany

2. Baggio v Czechoslovakia

3. Baggio v Nigeria

4. Matthäus v Yugoslavia

5. Schillaci’s eyes

6. Bergkamp v Argentina

7. Milla v Colombia

8. Ronaldo v Turkey

9. Buffon v Zidane

10. Caniggia v Brazil

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