the night is dark and full of terrors

A blog where you can read about theories and discussions regarding prophecies, mysteries and potential secret identities in A Song of Ice and Fire. THERE WILL BE SPOILERS ON THIS BLOG, but you can avoid them easily because everything will be tagged. You may also submit your own theories. Please enjoy and always feel free to leave feedback, or point out theories or points we may have missed. → A Quick Guide → Tags (A List of Theories) → Frequently Asked Questions → Admins and Writers

[him-e]

Hello :) since I trust your opinions, who will be the three dragon riders ?

Thank you, you’re too kind! I’m going to shock everyone as my bets are on… (drum roll)…

1) Dany. She’s the mother of dragons, (probably) the prince(ss) that was promised and the stallion that mounts the world (whether you identify the “stallion” with Dany herself or Drogon), and she has already bonded with Drogon and ridden him. And: That night she dreamt she was Rhaegar, riding to the Trident. But she was mounted on a dragon, not a horse. When she saw the Usurper’s rebel host across the river they were armored all in ice, but she bathed them in dragonfire and they melted away like dew and turned the Trident into a torrent.2) Jon. All that jazz about being the secret child of Rhaegar and Lyanna must mean something (ice & fire?). He’s biologically half-targaryen and warg, so the chances he can control a dragon are very high. He’s also the character who has the most connections with fighting the Others, and, of course, “R’hllor shows me only Snow”. Another obvious one.3) Tyrion. I’m not 100% sure about him, but he makes sense on a meta level. He’s the character with the highest number of povs, he’s admittedly George’s favorite, he shares parallels with Dany and Jon (their mothers all died in childbirth; they’re all orphans of both parents now; they’re all in some way responsible for their lovers’ deaths, etc.); he’s a Lannister, which would be perfectly fitting for narrative balance, considering that the other two are a Targaryen and a Stark (Jon might be technically half-targ, but he’s a Stark in everything else; I think it’s thematically relevant that Stark and Lannister, whose conflict started this story, unite with House Targaryen to save the world, as foreshadowed by the strange combination of colors in formerly-Ice-now-Lannister-blade Oathkeeper). Tyrion also has a genuine obsession for dragons and: the white cyvasse dragon ended up at Tyrion’s feet; a small man can cast a very large shadow (note that Drogon is referred to as “the winged shadow”…) 

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[racefortheironthrone]

No, the White Walkers Aren't Good Guys

No, the White Walkers Aren’t Good Guys

The idea that the White Walkers are secretly the good guys or not the final enemy or that they built the Wall or had some sort of secret peace treaty is a theory that’s become weirdly prominent in the ASOIAF fandom; I say weirdly because not only is there basically no evidence for this theory, but the very existence of this theory requires you to dive head first into the hermeneutics of suspicion…

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[nobodysuspectsthebutterfly]

So we know your thoughts on R+L=J but what about R+L = J+M? They are the same age, she could be the third head (Though not what R planned). Her book description is similar to Arya, who we know looks the closest to Jon.

Hi ser-lorass! I’m responding to you, and to aplyflwynd, baasovlov, and staybadassmissjackson, who all sent in asks on this subject. I’m also addressing this answer to huffingtonpost/huffposttv, whose wonderful little article is the reason why I’ve received 4 asks on this subject in less than 36 hours.

The theory: R+L=J+M – that Jon Snow is not the son of Ned Stark and some unknown woman, but actually the son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark… but Lyanna didn’t just have one child, she had twins! Jon and Meera Reed are twins, just like Luke and Leia!!! Oh my god, this changes everything!!!!!

The evidence: Looks.

HuffPo posted some pictures of Kit Harington and Ellie Kendrick, the actors who play Jon and Meera (respectively) on Game of Thrones, and says they look alike. Um, sure. Maybe they might, a little. (If you ignore bone structure, facial shape, eye shape, jaw shape, nose shape, lip shape, everything except for the fact they both have dark curly hair.) But the show is the show, and we can note that Arya and Jon are supposed to look extremely alike, as well as Ned and Jon, and yet… they don’t. Not to mention the fact that Bran and Rickon are supposed to all be auburn-haired and have the same face shape as Robb and Sansa and their mother Catelyn… and yet, on the show, they don’t. The show’s casting doesn’t prove anything, sorry.

But “Meera looks like Arya in the books”, you say! No, not really. Bran’s narrative says she reminds him of Arya. (So does one of the Children of the Forest, note.) And this is the reason why:

Jojen was so solemn that Old Nan called him “little grandfather,” but Meera reminded Bran of his sister Arya. She wasn’t scared to get dirty, and she could run and fight and throw as good as a boy.

–A Clash of Kings, Bran IV

However, this is what Meera actually looks like:

As the newcomers walked the length of the hall, Bran saw that one was indeed a girl, though he would never have known it by her dress. She wore lambskin breeches soft with long use, and a sleeveless jerkin armored in bronze scales. Though near Robb’s age, she was slim as a boy, with long brown hair knotted behind her head and only the barest suggestion of breasts. A woven net hung from one slim hip, a long bronze knife from the other; under her arm she carried an old iron greathelm spotted with rust; a frog spear and round leathern shield were strapped to her back.Her brother was several years younger and bore no weapons. All his garb was green, even to the leather of his boots, and when he came closer Bran saw that his eyes were the color of moss, though his teeth looked as white as anyone else’s. Both Reeds were slight of build, slender as swords and scarcely taller than Bran himself.

–A Clash of Kings, Bran III

Meera Reed was sixteen, a woman grown, but she stood no higher than her brother. All the crannogmen were small, she told Bran once when he asked why she wasn’t taller. Brown-haired, green-eyed, and flat as a boy, she walked with a supple grace that Bran could only watch and envy.

–A Storm of Swords, Bran I

Please note that not only is Meera very short for her age (barely taller than an 8-year-old boy), because she’s a crannogwoman, but she also looks much like her brother Jojen, with the same height, the same brown hair and green eyes. Funny, you’d think that if Meera were Rhaegar and Lyanna’s child, she should look like at least one of her parents. (They don’t have contacts in Westeros.)

Jon Snow, however:

Jon’s eyes were a grey so dark they seemed almost black… –A Game of Thrones, Bran I

[Ned] had a grim cast to his grey eyes this day… –A Game of Thrones, Bran I

Arya had her father’s eyes, the grey eyes of the Starks. –A Dance with Dragons, Reek (Theon) II

[Arya] even looked like Jon, with the long face and brown hair of the Starks, and nothing of their lady mother in her face or her coloring. –A Game of Thrones, Sansa I

And her betrothed [Brandon] looked at her with the cool grey eyes of a Stark and promised to spare the boy who loved her. –A Clash of Kings, Catelyn VII

The evidence: Age

Shocker! Meera and Jon are the same age! (Both 16-17 years old as of ADWD, both born in 283 AC.) Well gosh oh golly oh wow, you got me there. But you have to pity poor Lyanna, because guess who else was born in 283:

Bella, a girl from the Riverlands, bastard daughter of Robert Baratheon.[1]

Desmera Redwyne, daughter of Paxter Redwyne and Mina Tyrell.[2]

Jeyne Westerling, daughter of Gawen Westerling and Sybell Spicer.[3]

Lucos Chyttering, son of Lord Chyttering.[5]

Margaery Tyrell, daughter of Mace Tyrell and Alerie Hightower.[6]

Robb Stark, son of Eddard Stark and Catelyn Tully.[8]

Robert Frey, son of Raymund Frey and Beony Beesbury.[9]

Samwell Tarly, son of Randyll Tarly and Delena Florent.[10]

(Roughly) Del, a wildling.[11]

No wonder Lyanna died in childbirth, having undecuplets is really hard on a woman. :(

The evidence: Themes. Oh, this one isn’t even worth talking about, but you remember Romulus and Remus, right? The founders of Rome? They were twins, nursed by a she-wolf! Surely that means Lyanna the Stark she-wolf had twins! And because Jon Snow and Meera Reed are just like Romulus and Remus! I greatly look forward to the scene where Jon and Meera build a city together and then he kills her. Truly, that will be some of GRRM’s finest writing.

But enough about this “evidence”. Let’s talk real proof.

One of the best run-downs of the evidence for Jon Snow’s parentage is here. It’s my favorite link for proof of R+L=J, because it lists all the quotes in the narrative that lead to this conclusion. (Although since it’s a pre-ADWD list, it doesn’t have some of the most recent evidence, but it’s still great.) If you follow the link, you’ll see some of the most significant quotes are from Ned Stark’s narrative. Notably, when Ned is speaking with Cersei, he does not list Jon as one of his children:

“You love your children, do you not?”Robert had asked him the very same question, the morning of the melee. He gave her the same answer. “With all my heart.”“No less do I love mine.”Ned thought, If it came to that, the life of some child I did not know, against Robb and Sansa and Arya and Bran and Rickon, what would I do? Even more so, what would Catelyn do, if it were Jon’s life, against the children of her body? He did not know. He prayed he never would.

–A Game of Thrones, Eddard XII

And when he’s in the dungeons, with his regrets:

The thought of Jon filled Ned with a sense of shame, and a sorrow too deep for words. If only he could see the boy again, sit and talk with him…

–A Game of Thrones, Eddard XV

People who believe in the R+L=J theory feel that in this scene Ned is deeply regretting that he has never told Jon Snow the truth about his mother. How interesting, then, that it doesn’t include the line “And if only he could see Meera Reed, sit and talk with her…”

In fact, Ned never once thinks of Meera Reed at all. Take a look for yourself. He does think of Howland Reed a few times, but never about Howland’s children. You would think, if there were any truth to the idea that Lyanna had twins, and made Ned promise to keep her son safe and raise him as his bastard and never tell him about his parentage, but give her daughter away to be raised by someone else (because that makes sense), there’d be some part of Ned’s narrative that would lead to this conclusion. Something about Howland protecting the gift Ned had given him, perhaps. Anything. Any textual evidence of any kind.

Well, there isn’t any. Because this theory is crap, and entirely baseless, with nothing but the coincidence of age and two actors with brown curly hair. Oh, and an idea stolen from movie series that, y’know, is popular and had a heck of a twist that was not that much of a reveal because Leia is the only female character of any substance in the first trilogy… ahem… hey, that is something, isn’t it? If ASOIAF was really leading to some huge reveal about Meera being Jon’s sister, you’d think that Meera would be at least as important a character as Jon? But though I do love her, she really really isn’t; Meera’s a supporting character in Bran’s story, and that’s all. Meera is Howland Reed and his wife Jyana’s daughter, and Jojen’s sister, and that’s all.

(Oh, and Meera’s mother isn’t Ashara Dayne. And Jyana isn’t Lyanna. And Howland isn’t Arthur Dayne. And Howland isn’t the High Sparrow. And Wylla Manderly isn’t Jon’s real twin sister. And Dany isn’t Jon’s twin sister/Lyanna’s real secret child either. You know, this fandom has way too much time on its hands.)

[amin-j]

Dornish Letter Theory

I think the key factors from the description are (#3 is the most important). 1) Aegon squeezed the letter so hard that his hand starting bleeding, suggesting that it contained shocking and unexpected information. 2) Aegon burned the letter right away, suggesting not only that he was angry, the letter it had information in it he wanted no one else knowing about. 3) Aegon right away flew to Dragonstone on his own and came back the next day, completely changing his mind and accepting the peace deal, against the advice and protests of his lords. I think that there are nuggets of truth in the descriptions on what the Dornish Letter was about. I think the idea about hiring Faceless Men to kill Aegon’s son and heir isn’t it, they were already sending assassins against each other and that sort of idea wasn’t new or particularly shocking. I think that the idea that Rhaenys survived and was tortured was true, but it is alone does not explain why he ended the war (it might as well, on its own, only provoked him further) or why Aegon went to KL. The Dornish weren’t torturing her for revenge, there was another purpose: to gain secret information about the dragons, which Rhaenys finally revealed when she was broken. What did they reveal? Something related to Dragonstone. Something that was at Dragonstone and stolen by Dornish spies who went there in advance of the peace envoy that went to Dragonstone. Aegon had to go check personally on Dragonstone, he sees it is gone, and he comes back and accepts the peace deal. Whatever was stolen wasn’t a 100% win for the Dornish either, it would have a cost that made them send peace feelers, but they were willing to pay the cost if Aegon kept the war going. What was stolen? Initially, I thought it was some sort of artifact like the dragon horn Euron has, but it is also possible the Dornish stole dragon eggs. Whatever they stole gave them either power over the current dragons (i.e. a dragon horn) or the possibility to produce their own dragons (dragon eggs). The knowledge was provided by Rhaenys, either where the horn was and how to use the horn (including the cost of blowing it), or the knowledge of how to hatch them and raise their own dragons. For the latter option, it is true that some sort of Valyrian blood is best for raising dragons. But if a dragon is raised from a hatchling, it is possible it might bonded with someone if enough people try, and it is less dangerous than trying to go after a fully grown dragon. There is also the possibility of the Dornish having a child with Rhaenys. There was enough time between when she was taken and when the letter was sent for her to have one or more children, but I think that isn’t necessary to have someone to control a dragon and would be quite dark, even for George (though imagine Aegon horrified at the thought of fighting his own niece or nephew). A problem with any version of this theory is why didn’t we hear anything about it after that? On the Targaryen side, it possible that Aegon didn’t tell his children about the problem and the knowledge was lost (or Aenys and Maegor knew but the information died with them). As far as I remember, dragons were not used against Dorne (mainland Dorne anyway) after that, so the issue was never pressed. What about the Dornish side? If it was an artifact, then somehow that information was lost by the present time, or you would think Doran would have given it to Quentyn to use (unless he kept it home to be kept safe). If it was dragon eggs, then they probably became useless like the rest of the dragon eggs that failed to hatch. We talked about my theory on the latest boiled leather episode, starting about 1:21:45 in.

[nobodysuspectsthebutterfly]

Hi there! I really love your meta and your analysis makes me enjoy the books even more! I just wanted to know what you thought was in the letter sent to Aegon?I was on westeros (yeah im that desparate to know loool) and it seems like mostly everyone accepted the speculations written at the bottom and it seems like a tinfoil question that really can't be answered. But what do you think could have motivated Aegon?? I can't fully trust the narrative so I'm accept anything. Thanks for reading this!

The Dornish Letter is a very interesting mystery, yes. Unfortunately, all we have to work with is this text:

King Aegon was determined to refuse the offer until Princess Deria placed in his hands a private letter from her father, Prince Nymor. Aegon read it upon the Iron Throne, and men say that when he rose, his hand was bleeding, so hard had he clenched it. He burned the letter and departed immediately on Balerion’s back for Dragonstone. When he returned the next morning, it was done. He had agreed to the peace and signed a treaty to that effect.

What the letter contained, none know to this day thoughmany have speculated. Did Nymor reveal that Rhaenyslived still, broken and mutilated, and that he would endher suffering if Aegon ended hostilities? Was the letterensorceled? Did he threaten to take all the wealth of Dorneto hire the Faceless Men to kill Aegon’s young son and heir,Aenys? These questions shall never be answered, it seems.

—The World of Ice and Fire

So, what could have motivated Aegon? What could have angered/upset him so much, and made him comply with Dorne’s request for peace without submission?

I can only think of two things he could care about that much:

his family

the country

For the latter, what could have Nymor revealed in a letter that would be so deeply upsetting? It can’t have been some kind of doomsday device or other secret weapon, because, well, if Dorne had such a weapon they would have used it during the Dragon’s Wroth or during other attempts to conquer Dorne. And doomsday devices aren’t really ASOIAF as such (the Horn of Joramun may be the closest, and we really have no absolute proof of its effects yet), and magic like the Rhoynar water wizards had was long gone by the time Nymeria arrived in Dorne. And I can’t think of anything else in that regard.

For his family, what Maester Yandel (TWOIAF’s in-world writer) suggests makes sense — that Rhaenys was still allive but broken, and the letter contained an offer to end her suffering; or that it was a threat against Aenys, Aegon’s son and heir. I can’t think of anything else, except perhaps a threat against Visenya… but she was far better capable of defending herself. No, the deal with Rhaenys makes the most sense, because that’s an active thing, a power that Dorne would have and Aegon would not. And Aegon would have no choice but to agree, because what else could he do? No evidence that Rhaenys would still be at Hellholt, she could be anywhere in the country, and attempting to burn down all of Dorne hadn’t succeeded at all so far.

It seems like a tinfoil question that can’t be answered because it is. The only evidence we have is what has been presented to us, and it’s how Yandel and the other theorists came to their conclusions. Anything else anyone might propose would have to be made out of whole cloth.

So I agree with the text, sorry — nobody knows what the letter said, it could have been one of multiple speculations, but the question may never be answered.

edit:

boiledleather replied:

You know what throws me is why his response was to immediately fly to Dragonstone and return the next day. What did he need to see there?

That’s why I figure the letter had something to do with his family. (And is probably why Maester Yandel suggests those theories.) This was in 13 AC, the Red Keep wasn’t completed until decades later (heck, construction didn’t even start until 35 AC), Aenys and Maegor (age 6 and 1) were still living on Dragonstone. If Aegon wanted to look at his sons, to speak to Visenya, to visit the places he and Rhaenys first loved each other, he would have had to go to Dragonstone.

Furthermore, “the isle that smelled of sulfur and brimstone and the salt sea was the place he loved the best”, so Aegon simply may have gone there to meditate and decide.

[nobodysuspectsthebutterfly]

Lannister gold and the Doom of Valyria

campaignrations asked:

Do you make anything of the Valyrian prophecy (from WoIAF) that Lannister gold would bring about the Doom? I mean, the Lannisters bought their sword right before the Doom, and “Brightroar” is about as succinct a description of the Doom as one can get.

“Right before the Doom” is a highly suggestive statement. Brightroar was bought a century before the Doom. As were who knows how many other Valyrian swords (of the 227 currently existing in Westeros). As TWOIAF says:

Perhaps in preparation for their crossing of the narrow sea, the Valyrians also established their westernmost outpost on the isle that would come to be known as Dragonstone some two hundred years before the Doom. No king opposed them—and though the local lords of the narrow sea made some effort to resist it, the strength of Valyria was too great. With their arcane arts, the Valyrians raised the citadel at Dragonstone. Two centuries passed—centuries in which the coveted Valyrian steel began to trickle into the Seven Kingdoms more swiftly than before—though not swiftly enough for all the lords and kings who desired it.

–The World of Ice and Fire

And note that Ice was also bought around a century before the Doom of Valyria:

Catelyn had no love for swords, but she could not deny that Ice had its own beauty. It had been forged in Valyria, before the Doom had come to the old Freehold, when the ironsmiths had worked their metal with spells as well as hammers. Four hundred years old it was, and as sharp as the day it was forged. The name it bore was older still, a legacy from the age of heroes, when the Starks were Kings in the North. –AGOT, Catelyn I

As for Brightroar’s name: Nightfall, Lamentation, and Red Rain are also sword names that are pretty good descriptions of the Doom. Heck, even Blackfyre sounds a bit like a volcano erupting ash and flame, doesn’t it. Threats of war and death, fire and blood; most of these Valyrian steel sword names want to tell the same kind of story.

Also, you’ve got the wording of the prophecy wrong, sorry.

The wealth of the westerlands was matched, in ancient times, with the hunger of the Freehold of Valyria for precious metals, yet there seems no evidence that the dragonlords ever made contact with the lords of the Rock, Casterly or Lannister. Septon Barth speculated on the matter, referring to a Valyrian text that has since been lost, suggesting that the Freehold’s sorcerers foretold that the gold of Casterly Rock would destroy them. Archmaester Perestan has put forward a different, more plausible speculation, suggesting that the Valyrians had in ancient days reached as far as Oldtown but suffered some great reverse or tragedy there that caused them to shun all of Westeros thereafter.

–The World of Ice and Fire

Now, the fact that Septon Barth is discussing the subject is a general clue that he was right and we should ignore whatever the skeptic Yandel says. But note that the prophecy does not say “Lannister gold will bring about the Doom of Valyria”, it says “the gold of Casterly Rock would destroy them” – “them” meaning Valyrians.

So it might be that the gold from the purchase of Brightroar – or any other Lannister gold from any other trade – made its way into the hands of those who paid the Faceless Men to assassinate the sorcerers who controlled the Fourteen Flames, and so brought about the Doom. Or it might be that this prophecy refers to Tywin’s part in Robert’s Rebellion, and especially Jaime’s assassination of Aerys Targaryen (remember that Jaime was wearing his Lannister gold armor at the time). Or it might be that the prophecy refers to something that hasn’t even happened yet – and do recall that Tyrion has promised over 150,000 golden dragons of Casterly Rock to the Second Sons for allowing him to join them.

[nobodysuspectsthebutterfly]

Maybe I missed it or something, but why is stannis the blue eyed king who cast no shadow in that vision dany saw (or prophesy or whatever it was)?

Because… that’s what Stannis is?

OK, OK, let me bring the proof.

Glowing like sunset, a red sword was raised in the hand of a blue-eyed king who cast no shadow. […] mother of dragons, slayer of lies… –ACOK, Daenerys IV

“Melisandre swears that she has seen me in her flames, facing the dark with Lightbringer raised on high.”–ASOS, Davos IV

[Stannis] yanked his longsword from its scabbard. The steel gleamed strangely bright in the wan sunlight, now red, now yellow, now blazing white. The air around it seemed to shimmer, as if from heat. –ACOK, Catelyn III

The king frowned. “Everyone else has seen the thing, why not a blind man?” His swordbelt and scabbard hung from a peg near the hearth. He took the belt down and drew the longsword out. Steel scraped against wood and leather, and radiance filled the solar; shimmering, shifting, a dance of gold and orange and red light, all the bright colors of fire.“Tell me, Samwell.” Maester Aemon touched his arm.“It glows,” said Sam, in a hushed voice. “As if it were on fire. There are no flames, but the steel is yellow and red and orange, all flashing and glimmering, like sunshine on water, but prettier. I wish you could see it, Maester.”“I see it now, Sam. A sword full of sunlight. So lovely to behold.”

–ASOS, Samwell V

[Stannis’s] eyes were open wounds beneath his heavy brows, a blue as dark as the sea by night.–ACOK, Prologue

Stannis turned to study him. Beneath his heavy brow were eyes like bottomless blue pools.–ASOS, Jon XI

“Hear me, it was Stannis.” The name was on her lips before she could think how it got there, but as she said it, she knew that it was true. “I swear it, you know me, it was Stannis killed him.”The young rainbow knight stared at this madwoman with pale and frightened eyes. “Stannis? How?”“I do not know. Sorcery, some dark magic, there was a shadow, a shadow.” Her own voice sounded wild and crazed to her, but the words poured out in a rush as the blades continued to clash behind her. “A shadow with a sword, I swear it, I saw.”[…]“He was laughing one moment, and suddenly the blood was everywhere… my lady, I do not understand. Did you see, did you…?”“I saw a shadow. I thought it was Renly’s shadow at the first, but it was his brother’s.”“Lord Stannis?”“I felt him. It makes no sense, I know…”

–ACOK, Catelyn IV

“I dream of it sometimes. Of Renly’s dying. A green tent, candles, a woman screaming. And blood.” Stannis looked down at his hands. “I was still abed when he died. Your Devan will tell you. He tried to wake me. Dawn was nigh and my lords were waiting, fretting. I should have been ahorse, armored. I knew Renly would attack at break of day. Devan says I thrashed and cried out, but what does it matter? It was a dream. I was in my tent when Renly died, and when I woke my hands were clean.” –ACOK, Davos II

Two arms wriggled free, grasping, black fingers coiling around Melisandre’s straining thighs, pushing, until the whole of the shadow slid out into the world and rose taller than Davos, tall as the tunnel, towering above the boat. He had only an instant to look at it before it was gone, twisting between the bars of the portcullis and racing across the surface of the water, but that instant was long enough.He knew that shadow. As he knew the man who’d cast it.

–ACOK, Davos II

Hope that helps!

[nobodysuspectsthebutterfly]

The Blood of the Dragon

joannalannister asked:

Wait, I’m not sure I’m understanding you. You’re saying the poison caused the dragon-ish birth defects in Maegor’s wives? I thought it was just a random, if very rare, genetic birth defect, but you’re saying it’s not genetic?

What I’m saying is that Tyanna’s poison is what caused Maegor’s wives’ miscarriages, stillbirths, and deformed babies. And that Mirri’s magic is what transformed and killed Dany’s Rhaego.

What I’m also saying is that when Targaryen babies have birth defects (caused by poison or magic or even natural causes), and it most frequently takes the form of dragon traits, scales and tails and wings— that’s very probably related to their “blood of the dragon”.

That is, whatever magic the Valyrians did to themselves back when to make it easy to bond with dragons, which may have included infusing dragon blood within their own, or something like that (perhaps something we’d rather not think about), it doesn’t normally demonstrate any unusual physical effects other than the silver-gold hair and purple eyes.

But I believe when this “blood” is disturbed chemically or magically before birth, it “overloads”, it changes the unfortunate owner of that blood into a more dragon-like appearance… and also kills them. (I mean, the poison or magic would already kill them, but such a child would be non-viable anyway.) I imagine that early in the experimental magic days there were many infant deaths of that type before they got the balance right. :/

[nobodysuspectsthebutterfly]

Hi! I was wondering something. Why does Varys sent Gendry out of KL? I mean, we know that it was Varys who sent Gendry to the Wall, but why? He knows that Cersei’s children aren’t from Robert, but why to secure the Baratheon line with a high born bastard who was raised as a commoner? He has no manners and doesn’t even like ‘lordish’ stuff, and Edric Storm is a better candidate because he was raised in a castle. I sent this to asoiafuniversity, but they told me to ask it to the members :)

We don’t actually know that it was Varys who sent Gendry to the Wall? It’s a general fan assumption, but there’s no real proof yet. It’s thought that Varys might be the lord who paid Gendry’s apprentice fee, since Tobho Mott’s description:

“He was stout, round of shoulder, not so tall as you. Brown beard, but there was a bit of red in it, I’ll swear. He wore a rich cloak, that I do remember, heavy purple velvet worked with silver threads, but the hood shadowed his face and I never did see him clear.”

could be Varys in one of his disguises, but again there’s no real proof. And Gendry says Tobho Mott just told him one day to join the Night’s Watch, there’s no mention of a lord who told him to.

But it could be that Varys is the one who sent Gendry to the Wall, just like it could be that Varys is the one behind Tyrek Lannister’s disappearance. There’s a theory that Varys is preserving members of certain families, for some as-yet-obscure purpose. Perhaps he did it in case all of the major family members die, he would be able to present these people as heirs to their houses, people who would then owe him. But since the only people involved in this theory are Gendry and Tyrek — and Gendry never made it to the Wall and we don’t know if Varys has any idea where he is or even cares — and Tyrek has been completely missing for three and a half books — it’s hard to draw any specific, real conclusions yet.

(Also there’s a variation of the theory where Varys hid these boys to reserve proof about Robert’s murder and the fact his heirs are not his heirs — as Tyrek was Robert’s squire and might have witnessed Lancel doping his wine, and Gendry has the Baratheon look — but as that’s a plot that nobody really cares about anymore tbh, I don’t really see the point. Maybe the fact that Tommen and Myrcella aren’t actually Robert’s heirs will become relevant again, but considering Joffrey reigned and died without it ever actually making a difference, I very much doubt it. Seriously, even if Cersei’s trial weren’t by champion and not evidence, does anyone really think Aegon or Dany’s going to give a damn?)

But say the “reserve heirs” theory is true. (I don’t actually like to say it’s true because I hate speculating on such castle-in-the-air data, but you did ask.) You wonder why Gendry, and not Edric Storm? There’s a simple answer to that… Varys had Gendry, he didn’t have Edric. Renly’s people had Edric at the time Gendry was sent to the Wall, and Stannis had him not much afterwards. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. If Varys had a need to present Gendry as his puppet (if say all the Baratheons die), but Edric were still alive, then, well, assassination isn’t hard.

And y’know… if that theory is true, but Varys did lose track of Gendry on his way to the Wall… Edric Storm is now living in Lys. The Free City where Varys originally came from, and where he certainly has contacts now. So your question may be entirely moot, as while Gendry might have been Varys’s original  “reserve Baratheon”… Edric Storm, a far better candidate (as you point out), could very well be Varys’s new puppet lord.

If that theory is true, of course. We’ll just have to see.

[donewithwoodenteeth]

I actually wrote about why Varys did this before here.

And I do think Varys was the lord who paid for Gendry’s apprentice fees because he knew about him and bothered to get him out. Here’s the quote, Butterfly, that makes everyone so convinced Varys was the one who made sure Gendry joined Yoren:

(talking about Barra and her daughter) The eunuch’s smile was sly. “That might take rather a long time, my good lord. I know quite a lot.” “Not enough to save this child, it would seem.” “Alas, no. There was another bastard, a boy, older. I took steps to see him removed from harm’s way… but I confess, I never dreamed the babe would be at risk. A baseborn girl, less than a year old, with a whore for a mother. What threat could she pose?” “She was Robert’s,” Tyrion said bitterly. “That was enough for Cersei, it would seem.” Varys and Tyrion, ACoK

An older boy, Robert’s bastard in King’s Landing who had been sent away- it has to be Gendry in my mind. 

[warsofasoiaf]

I'm seriously loving your ASOIAF meta. Thanks for some thought provoking theories! Apologies if this has been covered before, but what are your thoughts on Theon and Asha's fates, and do they fit into the magical or political part of the plot? Thanks! :)

Thanks! I’m sort of experimenting with tumblr to see if I can treat it like the mid-way point between long-form writing on wordpress and short-form writing on twitter. (Big jump); so I’m trying to keep it long enough to be informative but short enough to be entertaining. So far, I have to say that I’m finding the road pretty smooth. (But let me know if you want more long-form responses or shorter ones. I’m flexible!)

So, I’ve been saying this to folks for a little while, but per Theon & Asha, I’ll take the Pippin route: “The closer they are to danger, the farther they are from harm.” Things look pretty bleak for both of them (but especially Theon). They’re starving in the middle of a blizzard, captives of a king who despises them and in the pathway of an army of about 2500 knights/heavy horse bearing down on them.

But I think that GRRM has something else besides death in mind for both of them. For that matter, I think Stannis does too. Let’s focus on the long-term future first:

In ADWD, Asha I, Tris Botley tells Asha Greyjoy the story of Torgon Greyiron. While he was away raiding the Mander, his father died, and his younger brothers called a kingsmoot in hopes of supplanting his rightful throne. But the younger brothers failed to win the kingsmoot, leading to the election of Urrathon IV Goodbrother. Urrathon proceeded to wipe out the Greyirons that had run against him in the kingsmoot, but 2 years later, Torgon returned from raiding, found the usurper sitting the seastone chair and then proceeded to lead a counter-revolution against Urrathon, finally succeeding in unseating the usurper. Thereafter, Torgon became known as “Torgon the Latecomer.”

I think all that history is intended to be a call forward to present events. Theon Greyjoy is the rightful heir to the Seastone Chair regardless of the kingsmoot. The very fact that Theon is alive is proof enough that the kingsmoot is invalidated. So, I think that Theon will be the rallying point of anti-Euron forces to attempt to unseat the usurper. Of course, there’s a lot of questions that a Theon Latecomer brings up:

Could Theon actually rule in the state he’s in?

Will it matter since most of the Ironborn captains are in the Reach or Slaver’s Bay?

Will Asha rule in Theon’s place?

Will Damphair back the claim of a boy he didn’t seem terribly fond of in ACOK?

Lots of possibilities and questions! That said, in the near-term, it seems very likely that Theon & Asha will be kept alive by Stannis. Though he’s gained a reputation for being a man bound to justice, Stannis has a pragmatic flexibility that many fans don’t see in him. In this, we know that Stannis is keeping Theon alive to ascertain information about how to infiltrate Winterfell, but I’m curious whether Stannis (as a proven military historian) is aware of the story of Torgon and will use Theon/Asha as political pivots to push the Ironborn into his camp. Stannis’ obsession in ADWD is gained the swords and spear necessary to win the North and prepare Westeros for invasion by the Others. He will need every sword and spear. He’ll need the Ironborn.

So, in the short-term, I think that Stannis won’t sacrifice Theon to the flames; instead, I think after he’s seized Winterfell, he’ll be sending Theon south to Torrhen’s Square to reunite with Dagmer Cleftjaw to start the kingsmoot process.

Get excited, people. Kingsmoot 2.0 is coming in A Dream of Spring!

[the-isle-of-faces-deactivated20]

Bran and the Caves of Gendel and Gorne

When Bran arrives in the Cave he is told by Leaf not explore the Caves:

"Men should not go wandering in this place," Leaf warned them. "The river you hear is swift and black, and flows down and down to a sunless sea. And there are passages that go even deeper, bottomless pits and sudden shafts, forgotten ways that lead to the very center of the earth. Even my people have not explored them all, and we have lived here for a thousand thousand of your man-years."

Reading this, one can’t help but think of the caves of Gendel and Gorne, a story related to us in the very same book that Bran passes through the Wall, told by Ygritte to Jon:

"There are hundreds o’ caves in these hills and down deep they all connect. There’s even a way under your Wall. Gorne’s Way.”

"Gorne," said Jon, "Gorne was King-beyond-the-Wall."

"Aye," said, Ygritte, “Together with his brother Gendel, three thousand years ago. They led o’ host of free folk through the caves…”

"Gendel did not die. He cut his way free, through the crows and led his people back north with the wolves howling at their heels. Only Gendel not know the Caves, as Gorne had, and took a wrong turn….Deeper and deeper he went, and when he tried t’ turn back the ways that seemed familiar ended in stone rather than sky…Gendel’s folk were never seen again."

It is very likely that the cave Bran is currently living in is a part of this system, and that in turn, it connects to Gorne’s Way. GRRM has told us this story for a reason, and that reason is interwoven into Bran’s character arc and status as an heir to the Builder.

Also, consider the Leaf’s statement that even she does not know where they all go: That is a very suspicious one. In fact, it can also be read as a deliberate attempt to keep Bran, for the time being, from possibly stumbling upon Gorne’s Way. They have lived there for a “thousand thousand of your man-years”: if anyone knows where Gorne’s Way is, the Singers do.

Why try to keep Bran from exploring the tunnels and possibly getting lost or finding Gorne’s way in the skin of a raven? Because he wants to go home, desperately. When he is told to warg the tree above him by Brynden, he instead reaches out for Winterfell’s heart tree:

"Your heart yearns for your father and your home, so that is what you saw.”

If he is to learn greenseeing, that obviously can’t occur for the time being. But I believe that GRRM has created a means for Bran and whoever of his companions are still alive to travel back to Winterfell in TWOW.

[nobodysuspectsthebutterfly]

Are you on board with the whole "Mirri Maz Duur's prophecy of Dany's womb has actually been fulfilled and she doesn't know it, but Daenerys can have kids" thing? I guess her not getting preggers from Daario may be evidence against it, or circumstantial, but who would she have kids with? (assuming her, and the other characters don't die off first, and assuming she comes to power in Westeros, Iron Throne or not)

I don’t know if I can precisely say I’m “on board” with the idea. For one, I don’t think Mirri Maz Duur was deliberately making a prophecy.

“When will he be as he was?” Dany demanded.“When the sun rises in the west and sets in the east,” said Mirri Maz Duur. “When the seas go dry and mountains blow in the wind like leaves. When your womb quickens again, and you bear a living child. Then he will return, and not before.”

I think she was just poetically stating “this will never happen, it’s impossible like these other impossible things, Drogo will never ever be the same”. That Mirri included Dany’s ability to bear children on this list of impossible things was simply a twist of the knife, telling her that the magical price she paid for Drogo’s life was not just Rhaego’s death, but an eternal loss.

However, when you consider that in ADWD Dany encountered the Dothraki Sea going dry with the onset of winter, that the pyramids of Meereen blew in the wind when set afire by Dany’s dragons, that Quentyn Martell (whose house sigil is the sun) came from the west and died in the east… well, those are significant events, and uncannily match Mirri’s words, deliberate prophecy or not. And the fact that Dany almost certainly had a miscarriage in her last chapter (the father was either Daario or Hizdahr, btw) is a sign that her womb can quicken. However, since that was a miscarriage, it may be that Dany can conceive, but also can never bear a living child. And it’s yet unknown if that part will ever be fulfilled, we’ll just have to see.

Still, if what Mirri Maz Duur said was an unintentional prophecy, then she was not actually foretelling that Dany would have children — but rather that Drogo would return to her. And since he is dead, that is almost certainly impossible. But some think that like the other parts of the possible prophecy, Drogo’s return is a metaphor — and that perhaps it means Dany will find someone who she will love like she did Drogo, or that she will have a child she will name Drogo, or that it refers to something about Drogon, or who knows what. Again, that’s another wait-and-see.

If Dany does have a child before the series is over (and that’s a big if, as she may die in the last battle against the Others, and unless GRRM makes time pass much faster in TWOW and ADOS than in the last few books, there simply may not be enough time for her to have a kid), there are multiple potential fathers. For me, I’d primarily list those who might be her prophesied husbands — the “corpse” is as yet unknown but may be Euron Greyjoy (but considering the imagery involved I would doubt any possibility of love or children), and the “blue flower in the wall of ice” is almost certainly Jon Snow. Yes, I know, Dany hasn’t met either one of them yet. That’s the trouble with endgame speculation, I’m afraid.

[asoiafuniversity]

ASOIAF THEORIES 2015 VOTING RESULTS

Last week, asoiafuniversity​ teamed up with BryndenBFish to help conduct a cross-platform fandom poll. You voted, and now the results are in! According to BryndenBFish,

Results were awesome as you’ll see below. There are concurrent & parallel thoughts in the fandom on theories, identities, conspiracies. It’s pretty interesting stuff to a stats junkie like me. And of course /r/asoiaf came back with a resounding 7431 poll responses (roughly 4% of our total userbase).

Check out the results on reddit:

Poll Results Part 1: Conspiracies

Poll Results Part 2: Identity

Poll Results Part 3: Miscellaneous Theories & Conclusion

Reddit user Ecksel made the above graphs of the poll results. View all of the available graphs at the links below:

Part 1 Graphs: Conspiracies sorted by group

Part 1 Graphs: Conspiracies sorted by response

Part 2 Graphs: Identity sorted by group

Part 2 Graphs: Identity sorted by response

[asoiafuniversity]

ASOIAF 2015 Theory Poll

[asongoftheories]

This is a short poll to measure the popularity of theories online in 2015. This poll is for tumblr fans of ASOIAF!

[nobodysuspectsthebutterfly]

is there a chance the crow's eye met that lannister guy who went to retrieve the valyrian broadswoard from valyria (because the crow's eye said he went to valyria)?

There might be a chance, but I’m not sure the timing works out.

Valyrian steel blades were scarce and costly, yet thousands remained in the world, perhaps two hundred in the Seven Kingdoms alone. It had always irked his father that none belonged to House Lannister. The old Kings of the Rock had owned such a weapon, but the greatsword Brightroar had been lost when the second King Tommen carried it back to Valyria on his fool’s quest. He had never returned; nor had Uncle Gery, the youngest and most reckless of his father’s brothers, who had gone seeking after the lost sword some eight years past.

—ASOS, Tyrion IV

So, Gerion Lannister went on his doomed trip to Valyria around 291-292 AC.

As for Euron:

Aeron was almost at the door when the maester cleared his throat, and said, “Euron Crow’s Eye sits the Seastone Chair.”The Damphair turned. The hall had suddenly grown colder. The Crow’s Eye is half a world away. Balon sent him off two years ago, and swore that it would be his life if he returned.

—AFFC, The Prophet (Aeron I)

So, Euron Greyjoy seduced (or possibly raped) Victarion’s salt wife and was exiled around 297 AC.

Therefore, even if Euron went directly to Valyria after being exiled from the Iron Islands, Gerion would have already been missing for about 5 years. While it’s possible Euron could have found him there (alone? with only a few companions? mad?) the conditions of Valyria as we know them — smoky, sulfurous, volcanic, “demon-haunted” — do not suggest that anyone could live there for that long.

Now, it’s technically possible that Gerion, if he were still alive, could have met Euron somewhere other than Valyria. (Why Gerion would have never gone home in all those years is another question.) It’s very low probability, but when you consider the fact that Euron ran into Pyat Pree and the warlocks of Qarth who had set out to revenge themselves upon Dany, then you have to admit that the man has the devil’s own luck (or, you know, author fiat) and it could have happened. But either way, if this meeting did occur despite the difficulty with the timing, I doubt Gerion survived the experience.

Anyway, if GRRM ever explains exactly what happened to Gerion Lannister, and it happens to have something to do with Euron Greyjoy, then you can be glad you figured it out. :)

[nobodysuspectsthebutterfly]

crazy-plushies-and-cats-girl reblogged "The Prince That Was Promised" and added:

sorry but where’s a bleeding star, smoke, and salt in Jon’s last chapter? (no srsly I don’t remember)

No worries about missing it, some of them are very metaphorical.

The bleeding star:

[Wun Wun] swung the dead knight against the grey stone of the tower, again and again and again, until the man’s head was red and pulpy as a summer melon. The knight’s cloak flapped in the cold air. Of white wool it had been, bordered in cloth-of-silver and patterned with blue stars. Blood and bone were flying everywhere.

Smoke:

In the cold night air the wound was smoking.

Salt:

Then Bowen Marsh stood there before him, tears running down his cheeks.

Note, I tend to take this particular bit of “proof” that Jon is Azor Ahai with a much bigger grain of salt than what’s in Bowen Marsh’s tears. Since dead Ser Patrek of King’s Mountain, the “bleeding star”, is a reference to a football bet GRRM lost (“King’s Mountain” = Montreal, where Patrick Denis lives; blue star on white = Dallas Cowboys; Wun Wun the giant = Phil Simms of the New York Giants, who wore #11), it would feel really weird (and kind of dumb, sorry) if it were also an essential part of a prophecy. Dany seeing the red comet right before she steps into Drogo’s pyre and births the dragons is much, much more of a “bleeding star”, may I say.

Of course, it doesn’t rule out the idea there might be better evidence for Jon being Azor Ahai in the future. (Also perhaps for him being (re?)born “amidst smoke and salt”, not dying amidst it.) But the theory that the bleeding star has to do with Ser Patrek and Wun Wun sits especially badly with me.

[nobodysuspectsthebutterfly]

question about the faceless men's potential involvement in the doom of valyria: i fully subscribed to that theory after i read arya's conversation with the kindly man where he says that the faceless men gave the gift to the masters, but now i think about it, doesn't that go against the faceless men's way of doing things? arya is told she has to kill her target only, without any collateral damage, and the doom wiped out *all* of valyria, not just the masters.

Well, we don’t know that today’s Faceless Men share all of the same philosophy and practices of the first Faceless Men. If they were the cause of the Doom of Valyria and its mass destruction (including slaves and the non-Valyrian cities on the Isle of Cedars), that could explain why the Faceless Men even chose an “only the target” modus operandi.

And y’know, I was initially doubtful of the theory that the Faceless Men were involved in the Doom of Valyria. Until I read this part of TWOIAF:

A handful of maesters, influenced by fragments of the work of Septon Barth, hold that Valyria had used spells to tame the Fourteen Flames for thousands of years, that their ceaseless hunger for slaves and wealth was as much to sustain these spells as to expand their power, and that when at last those spells faltered, the cataclysm became inevitable. […] Some, wedding the fanciful notion of Valyrian magic to the reality of the ambitious great houses of Valyria, have argued that it was the constant whirl of conflict and deception amongst the great houses that might have led to the assassinations of too many of the reputed mages who renewed and maintained the rituals that banked the fires of the Fourteen Flames.

…and now I’m much more willing to believe it.