New Vorkosigan saga crack theory I just came up with:
Ezar made Aral Regent to prevent him from turning the Empire into a democracy.
Yes, I know Cordelia views Aral as more conservative than he thinks he is, but let's review what people think who a) are not from a radically different society and b) have actually known the guy for more than two weeks.
Padma doesn't just say that Aral was more progressive than his father, but that he was "getting... um... strange" and that once you loosened him up "he'd be declaiming revolution in iambic pentameter"*
While Piotr tries to reassure Vordarian that "[his] son will not betray his class" (betray how?), he also straight up says that "he's picked up some damned peculiar radical notions" and doesn't contest Cordelia's description of him as "a revolutionary", merely stating that Aral doesn't view himself that way... but that he'll end up "riding a tiger" if he doesn't commit one way or the other.**
Evon Vorhalas tells his brother that there's nothing secret about Aral's progressivism and "some of the senior Vor officers are scared to death of him"-- not the enlisted men or the ministry lackeys like the one he killed. The other Vor.
And of course Vordarian's coup was partially motivated by the fear of what Aral would do as Regent.
Ezar lays out everything that makes Aral right for the Regency, against several counter-suggestions of Aral's: rank, age, service, popularity***, being "ruthless enough to hold near-absolute power... and honest enough to hand over that power" to Gregor in the end. We usually read that as "honest enough to hand over that power instead of keeping it for himself", but what if it means "honest enough to keep that power invested in the Emperor", instead of doing something else with it? After all, Ezar points out that Aral genuinely doesn't want to be emperor. Honesty is not required.
Aral doesn't want to be Emperor-- but he leaps at the chance to be Regent and then Prime Minister. "It's the chance of a lifetime. Yes, I want it... I think I could turn down almost any other offer without a blink." He says he wants "to find some way of pulling the best men, from every class and language group and party... make the government... with ability promoted regardless of background"
He suggests both elevating a commoner to Regent and abolishing the Vor class to Ezar's face. And Ezar's response is to comment that Aral always gives him his true opinion. Ezar clearly knows about Aral's political views and does not consider them disqualifying-- indeed, if he wanted someone conservative in the role, he had a number of choices-- but just as clearly he wants his grandson (and no other) to follow him as Emperor.
But Ezar's arguments hinge not on what Aral wants, on what he could accomplish, or any other inducements, but on a) his being the best man for the job, b) his earnest desire to avoid the campstool (by safeguarding it for someone else) and c) an emotional appeal to his honor, that the Regent would be "whatever individual can be persuaded to stand by [Gregor and Kareen] in their hour of need".
Aral says the dire 'what-if' is the same thing Ezar used to send him to Escobar-- but just like Escobar, the argument works. Aral accepts the duty, on his honor.
And the oath he takes as Regent clearly means more than just ensuring Barrayar's, or Gregor's, wellbeing. Aral takes it as a commitment to the form of government as well. Aral himself says, of becoming Regent and constitutional parties, "That is just the sort of thing I will be sworn, on my honor, to prevent. It would not fulfill the spirit of my oath to hand over to Prince Gregor an emperorship gutted of power."
Ezar chained Aral to Gregor and the campstool with his sense of duty, forcing him to find a balance between his progressive ideals and Barrayar's traditional government and power structure-- a struggle that defines the political conflicts in the Imperium for the rest of the series.
*Miles doesn't get it all from his mom lol
**Miles does indeed describe him as the "unshakeable tiger-rider" of Barrayaran politics in TVG.
***and of course being happily married (though I do wonder if Ezar added that one for other reasons, since Aral wasn't married when he hatched this plot)
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