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Giants Collide

So the bout fight fans have been clamouring for is nearly upon us. However it’s still over three weeks until Canelo Álvarez takes on Gennady Golovkin. This weekend instead we are getting the hype train from two hucksters trying to imply this is the biggest fight of the century. The greatest defensive boxer of the modern era against a fella who has never won a single professional boxing bout. Grown men will be staying up to 5am on Saturday night convinced Conor McGregor can shock the boxing world. The only thing he’ll be able to hit will be air. The build up has been beyond farcical. They’ve tried to create a narrative that Mayweather is over the hill and McGregor is a superstar in sparring. It won’t matter a damn. This is boxing, not fighting on the street and Mayweather actually made a highly skilled boxer like Alvarez look amateur. He will toy with McGregor. When this fight was called McGregor was 10/1. That was a bad price but now he is 3/1 which is utter madness. They’re implying he has a 25% chance of victory. The chances of him landing a haymaker hail mary should be beyond 20/1. The odds so far have been dictated by the McGregor fans having small and mid sized bets on their man. Come this weekend when the high rollers come to Vegas, I’m expecting some of the biggest recorded wagers in fight history to be struck on Mayweather at around 1/4. Good luck to those that stay up for this fight. Many of us awoken last year to Brexit and Trump victories but they’d both pale in shock factor in my opinion to McGregor defying the odds here, no matter how short the bookies actually have them set. https://news.paddypower.com/boxing/2017/08/23/paddy-power-pay-out-early-on-floyd-mayweather-victory

Styles make fights and the real clash of giants this weekend will be Tyrone versus Dublin. This has history written all over it. Both managers are in pursuit of their fourth Sam Maguire as managers. Dublin are looking to make it three All Ireland’s in a row. Tyrone stopped the last team close to that mark, Kerry back in 2008, and they have a huge chance of stopping Dublin on Sunday. They had the better of the Dublin back in the league in February only for a soft free to allow Dublin to nick a draw. However the real confidence for Tyrone can be attributed from this; this is the first team Dublin have met where Dublin will have to change their gameplan to thwart the opposition rather than the other way around. Tyrone have the perfect game for beating Dublin. It’s said Jim Gavin is obsessed with breaking down defensive teams after the drubbing they took in 2014 but they have not met any defensive side of Tyrone’s calibre yet . They can shoot from distance, they have relentless breaking half backs and they’re movement is hard to contain or plan for. Tyrone also know their own system inside out. Tyrone will set up their own tactics and game plan knowing if they all play to their potential, they will win. Dublin will have to adjust and that’s what makes this so intriguing. Can they adapt to this new game at the highest intensity on the big day? Tyrone have been playing the same way all season whilst Dublin have shown already in the quarter final that Jim Gavin is readying his half forwards to track back more. However will they be able to adapt? Dublin’s biggest strength over their opposition has always been the quality of the bench they bring on for the final quarter to open up the gap. Back in 2014 against Donegal, those bench players were running onto a new dimension. A Dublin team being overrun and all at sea. Three years is a long time to face that kind of test again. I can’t wait to see how they cope. Odds: 4/9 Dublin, Draw 15/2, Tyrone 5/2, 1/2 Kerry, Draw 7/1, Mayo 2/1

#mayweathermcgregor #mayweather #floyd mayweather #conor mcgregor #gaa #dublin #tyone #betting #paddypower

Kerry v Mayo Preview

Beaten for the second year in a row by Galway, dead and buried against Derry, made to sweat by Clare and taken to extra time by Cork and a replay by Roscommon. Watching Mayo in this year’s championship is like an episode of the BBC’s Line of Duty for twists and turns. If you are unaware of said show or haven't seen it, track it down and watch. Hopefully the recommendation is a better than some of my betting advice this year.

We are going to truly test which theory is the best preparation for the crunch time of the championship. The battle hardened Mayo or the untested Kerry side . If Mayo go on to finally win Sam this year, it will be up there with Donegal in 2012 and Tyrone in 2005 for toughness of route and endurance. .

Kerry strolled past Galway but in truth if they play to the same level on Sunday and Mayo match their energy, pace and ruthlessness in the Roscommon replay, Eamonn Fitzmaurice is in big trouble. Galway left goals behind and Kerry have shown extreme weakness to the running game which Mayo have finally reverted back to. Having experimented with tactics like playing Keegan at centre half, trying different combinations of full back lines and mess around with Aidan O’Shea, Rochford is going back to the James Horan template and it looks to have revitalised the side at the crucial moment. Mayo felt they were missing that couple of percent to get over the line but took a step backwards trying to find that extra improvement. Going back to their strengths across the park and playing their best players in their best positions gives them the best chance to get over Kerry. It sounds simple and that’s because it is but in the modern GAA, manager can needlessly over complicate their systems to try to bamboozle the opposition and sometimes only damage themselves. Yes Mayo still could use more scorers and if they leave Ger Cafferty one on one with Kieran Donaghy on Sunday, then that Mayo fan taking on five stewards should go for the manager not the ref this time. However there is lots to like about Mayo’s chances on Sunday. I’d repeat the line about experimenting with starting Andy Moran, taking him off mid match and bringing him on for the final ten minutes a la Peter Canavan in 2005. They will most likely need his composure in the final stretch and early doors.

Kerry though will probably be delighted they played poorly yet still won easily at the quarter final stages. They have loads to work on and the level they could reach could leave Mayo in their wake. The Kerry pundits and ex players are out in force right now plamasing Mayo like they did Cork in the Munster final. Down in the south west, they’ll be quietly confident they’ll be fit to take care of a side they really have little respect for. 25 championship clashes and Mayo have only won four with the last being 21 years ago and before that you need to go back to 1951. Of course stats can be bent to tell a different tale. In truth this Mayo side have been more than a match for this Kerry side. They could have won both the 2014 encounters and in the league they’ve won four of the last five encounters in Division 1. I have a sneaking feeling Mayo could in fact win this match but on this occasion, at the odds, the value play here is to back Mayo +3 at around 4/5. A win, a draw or even a one or two point defeat will mean you’ve still backed a winner.

Match Odds: Kerry 1/2, Draw 15/2, Mayo 9/4

Connacht in Croker

This Sunday looks like the Connacht championship with Kerry invited in to make up the numbers. We are guaranteed at least one side in the semis and after demolishing Donegal, could Galway make it an All Connacht Semi Final? It was such a completely different performance on Saturday night compared to the Connacht final with Galway turning on that swashbuckling football we love to see. However the win was like taking pennies from a dead man’s eyes. Donegal gave up the ghost after 20 minutes. Just like I said last week about Galway not becoming a bad team overnight after one poor loss, they also didn’t turn into Dublin after a 15 point rout.

Going forward they unlocked Donegal so easily but the full back line again looked wide open even when they dropped back a sweeper. McBrearty got in behind one on one and Éamonn Fitzmaurice is not tactically naive like Rory Gallagher and you can be sure Kieran Donaghy has been counting down the minutes to face this side with Geaney and O’Donoghue sweeping around him. The hardest part of coming through the qualifiers is the short turnaround to face a top provincial champion and with Kerry a month to build up to this game, have Heaney, Bradshaw, Burke and Daly the legs to match the Kerry halfbacks and forwards. Galway must keep their composure early doors and trade points up to half time. They have the shooting boots to go toe to toe if they don’t concede goals. I fear though in the end Kerry will expose Galway’s defensive shortcomings and run out comfortable winners by 6 points or more. Match Odds Kerry 2/9, Draw 8/1, Galway 4/1 As for Mayo, they really are blockbuster stuff. To be a fan of that side with a heart condition would put you in an early grave. O Shea, O Connor and Moran were all excellent on Saturday yet they still needed extra time and a some odd ref decisions to escape with a one point win. However here they are now with only the Rossies in their way of their seventh All Ireland Semi final in a row. That truly is incredible and for all the heartache they’ve suffered, the journey has been unforgettable for our neighbours. I said Roscommon had little chance against Galway and I’m going to tempt fate again. Mayo might struggle for huge spells of the match, they might not get decent ball into O’Connor and they might let Roscommon in for silly goals again be opening like the red sea down the middle but in the end they’ll find a way to win. I must credit Kieran Shannon for the best tactically piece of advice last week. Mayo need Andy Moran but he can’t last 70 minutes. Poor Evan Regan is struggling badly with his shooting and it’s in those dying embers Moran is needed as well as the start to get a foothold. Why not try the Peter Canavan trick? Start him, take him off at half time and bring him on in the last 15 minutes again. It could be a game changer. Match Odds Mayo 2/5 ,Draw 8/1, Roscommon 11/4

Weld for Galway Dermot Weld ruled Ballybrit with an iron fist winning top trainer a staggering 31 times but this year he (11/4) finds himself behind Willie Mullins (4/7) in the betting. His stable has been in rotten form with a runners to winners percentage down over 50% on previous years. A virus has been blamed and his team is expected to be well down in numbers. The last time he was under such a cloud was back in 2011 when he told Matt Chapman he expected he would lose his title. He saddled 13 winners that week. You have been warned!

#Gaa #galwayraces

All Ireland Championship begins

After digesting all the previews in print and radio and reviewing a wonderful league campaign, this year Galway will come under no radar. Many fancy them to defend their Connacht title and some pundits are making them dark horses for an All Ireland. Therefore I’m expecting a huge reaction this weekend from the Mayo camp against Sligo. The Yeats county took advantage of their New York assignment by turning it into a mini training camp.

Niall Carew talked about the meticulous preparation that went into that match, training exclusively on the astro pitch for a month before the game. Can they get back to their orthodox game within ten days and be ready for one of the best three teams in the country?

Sligo talked about the disrespect from New York in the build up but 15 minutes into the second half, New York took the lead and if it was not for the coolness and experience of Adrian Marren, Sligo could have wilted in the Big Apple.

Mayo had a mixed bag of a league, fortress McHale park is looking as secure as the NHS servers and we still don’t see a variety of scorers especially in the half forward line. Half forwards however in the modern game have the toughest job of all. They’re expected to track back all day, have the physical strength to tackle giant midfielders and still have the energy and accuracy when a half chance emerges to nail a thirty yard point for an angle tighter than a Cavan man’s wallet. I’d like to see Mayo put less emphasis on the first two areas and start the likes of Evan Regan and let him concentrate solely on scoring. All in alll, I expect Mayo to put down a marker before they meet Kevin Walsh’s men and show the real gap between a mid table division three team and a real All Ireland contenter and win by double digits covering Paddy Power’s nine point line.

As for the other games this weekend, anybody backing Laois at 4/7 has either more money than sense or no sense with money. After relegation to division four, I see few bright sparks in a county that allowed a drain of talent to slip away with little coming through. The rest of the favourites look safe enough; Louth 1/6 to beat Wicklow, Wexford 1/2 versus Carlow, Monaghan 1/6 against Monaghan and Donegal 1/14 shots to slay Antrim.

Looking at Ulster outright, somebody has done their sums wrong and I hope it’s not me. It’s expected Donegal will meet Tyrone in the semi finals. Donegal are 11/4 with Paddy Power but 7/2 with bet365 which looks great value. Donegal hammered Tyrone in the league and in truth had their number in last year’s Ulster final only for some worldly scores from Peter Harte and Sean Cavanagh. I’d make that match a coin toss 10/11. Worst case scenario would be Monaghan in the final which is no foregone conclusion with Cavan sure to give them a real test in the quarters. Even if Monaghan did emerge after winning three games, again Donegal should be no bigger than 4/5. They’ve finally worked out to to tackle their bogeyside’s version of mirroring Donegal’s own defensive gameplan. Donegal looked far superior in the last three outings to my eyes albeit not yet dominating enough on the scoreboard. All in all my tissue has Donegal closer to 9/4 making 7/2 the standout bet of the season so far.

#Gaa #all Ireland

Galway GAA & Eurovision

Galway Club Football

Who can stop Corofin winning five Frank Fox Cups in a row? If I was to give you one word for each of their last four triumphs starting in 2013 it would be: growing, unstoppable, complacent, reenergized. Last year they really did jump back up a level and the one hope I have for competitions sake is that by the country drawing more and more on Corofin players at all levels, the players focus on their club is reduced. Corofin have created that culture we are seeing across Ireland where these big clubs are raising standards so high at this level, the knock on effect is it weakens the resolve of their competitors who see a bridge too far to overcome. The championship starts on Thursday with a cracker in St Michaels against Leitir Mór. Salthill v Milltown looks the tie of the round. Word has reached me that St James are best backed in the antepost markets and were as big as 40/1. Yes they’ve beaten Corofin in the league but I wouldn’t be inclined to jump on that ship yet having seen them falter badly under expectation in season’s past. No match odds going to print but based on the outright odds Killanin may prove attractive odds at anything bigger than 7/4 to beat Tuam in round one. Odds: Corofin 1/3,, Mountbellew/Moylough 10/1, Salthill 14/1, Annaghdown 14/1, Tuam Stars 14/1, Milltown 20/1, St James 25/1, Bar 25/1

Eurovision 2017

It’s Eurovision time again. You know that competition we used to be really good at but now we pretend we don’t care about. Of course if Ireland was ever within an ass's roar of winning again, you can be sure the bandwagon would be back in full force. Unfortunately it is only a matter of time before Sweden matches our seven victories and surpasses it. We were the champions of the jury era when professional music experts assessed each performance whilst now we are hostages to voting blocs and the poor tastes of Joe Bloggs, Piotr Bloggs and Stefan Bloggs. Last year the voting system was changed to produce two sets of scores from each country to try and dilute the poor tastes and allegiance of the general public. It didn’t go far enough though as the jury rightly scored one potential ear bleeding number by Poland 7 points in total whilst the public vote scored it 220, way more than the jury’s rightful winner Australia. On the flipside countries like Israel and Britain suffered no love from the general public after decent scores by the juries. Russia’s moderate number was scored as such by the juries but was an overwhelming winner at 361 points by the public. The big news this year is Russia are not competing so perhaps the former soviet satellite states can give points more freely than to Mr Putin’s entry. From one ape to another we go to find the years the big favourite.

For the first time in Eurovision history, a song went odds on before even rehearsals started. Italy don’t have a voting bloc and their entry is not in English which is normally a huge hindrance (Only one winner in the last twenty years not sang in English) but they’re the hype entry this year and overwhelming favourite. Their song is fronted by apparently their biggest popstar, is a catchy pop number with an undertone about human development and a giant dancing ape is their vote grabber. As for Ireland, we’re considered unlikely to get past tomorrow’s semi final. Will the ape triumph? Sure you’ll have to watch and find out. I find a wee flutter and Graham Norton’s commentary after a few bottles of wine are usually the only way to get through the three hour music marathon.

Selected Odds: Italy 4/6, Portugal 7/1, Sweden 10/1, Bulgaria 10/1, Romania 22/1, UK 50/1, Ireland 66/1

#eurovison 2017 #Galwaygaa #Gaa

US Masters

Those pesky members of Augusta always tended to annoys golf aficionados with its limited golf coverage. Unlike most other golf tournaments where coverage began the second the first three golfers teed off, with the Masters we are restricted to limited live coverage the first two days meaning those that like a flutter try in vein to follow their golfers progress around the most iconic venue in the sport. However we shouldn't complain as now the Masters represents the only live golf coverage in the UK on terrestrial TV albeit only the Saturday and Sunday.

Finding the winner here is easier than most tournaments as you can normally rule out a third of the field on account of age and pedigree. That makes Paddy Power’s decision to pay each way the first eight places manna to heaven for those that know their Jason Day from their Darren Day.

Rory at 8/1 will likely be Paddy Powers biggest liability come tee off but this course has a funny habit of spooking great golfers and maybe 2011 will turn out to be as close as he gets. Johnny Miller and Greg Norman never won here and the pressure of wanting this too much seems to cause Rory to try too hard and make mistakes. Also his A game was always assumed to be better than any other golfer could aspire to but suddenly Dustin Johnson is the king of the fairway. Jordan Spieth was second, first and second in his three appearances and he could have won all three. At least he has a one win here though unlike Rory and whilst his own demons of the 12th last year may slow him down, he looks the most solid each way bet at 7/1 as I can’t see him totally out of the frame.

Often times though when having a flutter emotion can wrongly creep in. Arnold Palmer will be missing for the first time. No doubt emotional scenes will occur when Jack Nicklaus and Garry Player tee off on Thursday without their friend and icon of the sport . Shame we won’t see it live though.Palmer claimed four Masters titles and Phil Mickelson at 25/1 will be chasing his own fourth green jacket could get inspired by the occasion. Worth adding to your portfolio for the week if getting involved.

National League finals

Drama in abundance. You could not have asked for a better end to the league season. Dublin rallied again from a tough position , Mayo showed serious heart whilst Galway and Tipperary got the crucial results under extreme pressure. Having tipped up both to get promoted alongside Dublin to win the Division 1 title and Westmeath to win Division 4 at 16/1 I’m hopefully a few followed me. Kerry and Wexford could still spoil the party this weekend. As for Galway v Kildare this weekend, it's a chance to play in Croker, banish some of the demons from last years quarter finals and add some silverware before their Connacht defence. Let’s not blow them up too much too fast but interestingly they are rated the sixth best team in the country right now according to the betting ahead of the likes of Monaghan who had Dublin in serious trouble on Sunday. Time for calm. Galway are 10/11 to beat Kildare this weekend.

Grand National Definitly Red was 16/1 last week but the plunge horse could go off favourite on the day. He demolished last year's runner up The Last Samurai in his last race and if the handicapper could reassess his mark, he’d be carrying near top weight instead of 10-11. The Irish dominated Cheltenham and if there’s one horse the bookies fear most it’s Cause of Causes. Once a runner up in the Galway Hurdle, the Gordon Elliott horse has won at the three Cheltenham festivals and will relish every yard of the extreme trip.

#usmasters

All to play for

You do everything right and then one silly mistake and all the good work is undone. Enough about looking after herself for Mother's Day, what if Galway footballers do the same on Sunday? You’d think nine points from twelve should be enough but if they fail to get at least a draw then that three point lead thrown away in Navan could bite them hard on the derriere. It would be a bitter pill if they don't return to the top flight now for the first time since 2011 but look at the hurlers. It was expected they’d be returning straight back up but a late ambush by Wexford and now they face another season in Division 1B. However they can right some of those wrongs in the hurling quarter final when Micheál Donoghue’s men face Waterford in a magnificent double header at Pearse Stadium with the footballers. Galway are 6/1 to win a hurling league title.

The national football league enters the final round with still a few things to play for across the divisions. There’s been plenty of entertainment, close encounters and a few shocks. For me the biggest surprises has been the rise of Kildare and Louth and the total failures of Cork and Laois. However it's pattern that keeps repeating. Teams with momentum are showing again and again that they follow up promotion with promotion again the following season. Clare, Cavan, Monaghan have already done it and now Kildare and Louth have followed suit. On the flipside relegated sides can fall down two or three trapdoors like Westmeath and Kildare. It’s one to keep in mind come next season when planning a wager.

As for Galway they have seen sides climb and fall whilst they’ve been stuck in purgatory but playing a side already promoted must have its advantages. Will Kildare really put the gun to Galway’s head and show off any game plan before a date the following week in the final? For Galway though they’ll forget about Croke Park as Sunday is Galway’s real final. They’d take a win and lose the cup the following week. I think that’s stating the obvious but that's one of the biggest drawbacks of the league. It's the best competition going as sides play at their own level but once we get near the end, you get the impression some sides are not all that bothered about lifting silverware or afraid of unmasking their full gameplan. Don’t end up as a TG4 team when you want to peak in August and September. It’s a shame we don’t put a greater emphasis on these trophies and if they league and championship ever did get restructured either these finals have to go or make the reward a home game in the last sixteen of the All Ireland. Take Division One this weekend. Are we going to witness teams taking to the field with the thought process that winning could see them in an unwanted place of a league final against Dublin. Will Donegal currently in second place put their bodies on the line against Mayo? To get into a final they are unlikely to win and could set them back in preparation for Ulster? That's the fatal flaw in the league and after two excellent months of gaelic some teams are really just back in preseason mode. Match Odds: Galway 1/ 4, Draw 10/1, Kildare 7/2. Its a 85% chance Galway will be promoted this weekend according to the odds permutations.

Galway v Sligo u21 final.

Galway had in truth a comfortable victory in the sunshine last Saturday night and are warm order to win against Sligo in the Connacht final. It's amazing that Mayo and Galway have not met in a Connacht u21 final since 2006 either clashing earlier or the Rossies taking out one of them. Outright Odds’ Galway 1/4, Sligo 11/4. Weekend Acca: Kerry to beat Tyrone, Galway to beat Kildare, Cavan to beat Roscommon & Armagh to beat Tipperary at 9/2

#Galwaygaa

One giant felled, one still standing

eOn Saturday night two teams on different pitches took to the field with records in their sights. What a joy it was to see Ireland stop England’s Grand Slam bid and with it stop the second team in less than six months reaching 19 consecutive victories. The country that built the Titanic knows nothing is invincible. Down in Kerry it looked again for the longest time that the Kingdom would end Dublin’s hunt for the GAA’s longest spell undefeated however the boys in blue again found a way back into the match. It’s worth remembering now this stage in proceedings come the height of the summer. Dublin have games against Roscommon at home and Monaghan away before a probable final against either Donegal or Tyrone who will already be thinking about their Ulster Championship bids. So in all likelihood Jim Gavin’s team will remain undefeated in the league and whilst Kildare are showing green shoots, a Leinster upset still seems a little off. That will take us to August with all the momentum and pundit praise blowing this side up to a near immortal status. They are currently 5/4 with Paddy Power but I expect they’ll be odds on by that stage. However we could look at this Dublin team a completely different way. Not to sound like Shania Twain about Dublin’s unbeaten run but technically they have only won three of their last seven games in the league and championship. Mayo, Tyrone, Donegal and Kerry have all put them to the pins of their collars. Any of the four are capable of felling this giant. Mayo have the strength and fitness to match Dublin all over the field but look a little short with quality shooters up front. Tyrone are in the exact same boat. Kerry are the opposite. They have the scorers but do they have the fitness to last a good 76 minutes with the fittest team in Ireland? Donegal were expected to fall back to the pack with the raft of retirements but players like Ciaran Thompson and Jason McGee have the team looking extremely dangerous already. Donegal have both the fitness and quality up front but where they fall down is lack of depth in the squad. Their first 15 looks a match for any team and we’ll learn more in the coming weeks after their impressive dismantling of Tyrone. They play familiar foes Monaghan and Mayo next. What a preparation for a championship and whisper it gently but at 20/1, they look the biggest dangers to Dublin this season.

Talk of preparation and we come to Galway. How would they like to be testing themselves week in week out with that calibre of opposition at this time of the year? Last year I took flak before the Cavan game for saying Galway were not ready for promotion as to flourish in the top division you need to be steamrolling sides in division two like Tyrone, Donegal and Monaghan did when dropping down. Galway haven’t been steamrolling many but it looks now or never to escape. They’ll be short prices to come straight back down but looking at Cavan this season, they look like the league will benefit them greatly come championship. They don’t look like a side like Westmeath, Kildare or Armagh who dropped down multiple divisions after a shocker at the top flight. Contrary to popular belief, Dublin are showing attacking football coupled with ferocious intensity is the way to win not blanket defences. Galway have one of those skillsets and can’t test their other properly until mixing regularly with the big boys. Down away this weekend should be treated like a championship game. Meath can jump over Galway if they finish level due to the head to heads so Galway still need two wins to be sure of promotion. Kildare will be promoted if they draw this weekend with Clare meaning their final match with Galway will be a dead rubber to them and that could be the crucial difference to decide the fate of Division Two.

#Gaa

Cheltenham Festival

This will appear in the Wednesday edition of the Galway Independent. The last time we saw as many horses miss the festival was thanks to foot and mouth back in 2001. The build up has suffered but now we’re in the middle of it no doubt racing fans are diving in with full enthusiasm. Whether Tuesday was good or bad on the punting front, steady yourself for another 21 races to go. Now Paddy Power won’t thank me for this but it’s not mandatory you have a bet on every race. I say that every year but after placing my bets in the morning, looking at the paper with five minutes to go to one of those awful tricky handicaps, the temptation to have a flutter on that overpriced nag that did me a favour three seasons back can be devilsome. Try to resist! I say it now but I’ll deserve a kick up the you know what if I’ve backed any horse in the Fred Winter or the Champion Bumper. The Cross Country is a particular Marmite Race. Punters either love it or hate it. I absolutely adore it, the Cross Country I mean not marmite, that stuff is only for pure savages. Urgent De Gregaine was going to be the bet of the meeting but like so many horses he was ruled out at the 11th hour. JP McManus may look to have a monopoly on this years renewal but Sausalito Sunrise could take to this unique challenge at a double figure price. One race that really does not lend itself to having a bet this year is the feature race today, the Champion Chase where Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins have Douvan. Mullins has a rotten record in championship races over fences in the UK. He has actually only won 18 Chase races in Britain compared to 42 over hurdles in the last five seasons. However this looks a penalty kick and we should just sit back and enjoy without any financial involvement. Degenerate punters that can’t resist an exotic bet could back Garde La Victoire either each way, in the betting without market or in a forecast with Douvan. For those that like to back a favourite at more reasonable odds, look to trainer Harry Fry this week. He may look like a choirboy but he’s is a brilliant trainer. He is very selective with his targets sometimes keeping his horses away from Cheltenham if he feels they’re not suited to its unique undulations. Neon Wolf in the Neptune Hurdle today and Unowhatimeanharry in the Stayers Hurdle on Thursday look two of the best favourites of the week. Neon Wolf has become the hype horse after an impressive nine length victory last time and second favourite Bacardys does not look in the mould of a Yorkhill or Faugheen for Willie Mullins. As for Unowhatimeanharry, he is simply the most rock solid horse with the best form this season. Winner of the Albert Bartlett in 2016, his opposition looks poor and this race year after year throws up winning favourites that go off at bigger price that their form suggests they should be. Maybe it's the Thursday factor when bookies are chasing for money that bit harder on the quieter of the four days but expect to get a better price on this horse than any price that he has been quoted for the last month. Best Bet: Unowhatimeanharry & Neon Wolf: Double (will pay around 6/1) Outsider. Sausalito Sunrise in Cross Country Chase: 16/1 each way Special Offer: Paddy Power are going money back if second as a free bet on the first five races each day live on ITV/TV3.

#cheltenham festival

Return of the Mike

The dedidcation and commitment amatuer athletes give to their disciplines is beyond me. I’m trying to give up sugar for Lent but all I swear the confectionary companies seem to be running adverts morning noon and night to get me to fall off the wagon. So I’ve placed a wager on losing a stone weight with a friend and without that I’d probably have thrown in the towel already. Most people like myself need something at the end of the rainbow to aim for. That’s why when a team can smell a trophy the commitment ratches up to an even higher level. Players are willing to make those extra sacrifices to their lives and bodies to go that step further. Without it, getting up at 6am to do two hours hard work before even going to work will take its toll and what’s the point if you are just making up the numbers in the competition.

The news that Michael Meehan could be in line for a shock return to Galway showed me a man who thinks Galway are going in the right direction. Even if he is solely used as an impact sub or just a strong influence on the panel to make sure they don’t lose their heads like the last ten minutes in Navan. Ironic in the week when we lost another fabulous footballer in Marty Clarke at 29 to retirement we might get to see Meehan coming back at 32. I must confess I have not seen him in the flesh for Caltra in a long time but if he still retains some of the magic, this looks a gamble worth it. He obviously feels his body is able and more importantly after years of living in Mayo’s shadow, this is Galway side worth making sacrifices for. Like one of those confectionary companies I’m denying myself, he can taste the rainbow. Champion Hurdle Preview David Haye vs Tony Bellew was one of those fights where expectations were low but in the end we were treated to a classic. However we were not watching anything world class, just two average British boxers going hell for leather. The same could be said for the championship race that kicks off the 2017 Cheltenham Festival. Technically the winner will be crowned champion but only as the previous champions are absent in a substandard year that closer resembles the field of a Fighting Fifth at Newcastle. When Ruby Walsh’s mount is likely to be Limini, you know things are bad. Let’s just hope for an entertaining race. I have concerns over the top horses. Does Gigginstown or JP McManus really rate Petit Mouchoir or Yanworth respectively when they both supplemented Tombstone and Buveur Dair for the race? Doesn't exactly speak confidence. Buveur Dair looks at the moment best of the lot and could be another JP horse like Jezki and Binocular that placed in the Supreme before winning the Champion Hurdle. If the ground is soft he is the best chance of a winner. Moon Racer could come here instead of the Supreme and despite his inexperience would have a big chance. Like the fight though I suspect something daft could happen. If the ground is good however Sceau Royal at 33/1 is not the no hoper his odds suggest. Make sure you study the ground conditions before placing those bets. Paddy Power are going money back as a free bet if second in the first five races each day of the festival.

#Galwaygaa #cheltenhamfestival

Super 8 and the ordinary 25

The GPA and CPA stated extra county fixtures were needed like a hole in the head but the GAA top brass don’t seem too bothered what the actual players think. Whatever your viewpoint, the desire for competitive football at the height of the summer has to be something to be celebrated. If only we could come up with a way of pairing the best eight sides in the country and get them playing regularly. Maybe they could all play each other once in a season with the best two going to the final.

Yes we could switch the league with the dysfunctional provinces. They last from May to the middle of July blocking clubs and frustrating counties setting off few fireworks. The season doesn't usually begin until the All Ireland quarter finals so at least this change we might see some tussles like Dublin in Ballybofey and Kerry in Castlebar in August. That will be great but there will be losers in this new age.

The GAA public accounts showed the amount of money required now to compete at intercounty level is north of €1 million. Mayo were the biggest spenders at €1.6 million outspending Dublin, Cork, Galway and Tipperary despite the fact those four compete at the highest level in two codes. Roscommon spend over the million mark and whilst they had an excellent league campaign in 2016, the county board must surely be examining their return in investment after a poor championship. The likes of Louth, Leitrim and Longford must be looking at the cost required and coming to the conclusion that investing large sums of money on the intercounty game for little hope of return is pure folly. This mindset although hard to argue from their point of view means the gap between those spending and those pulling in the reins will only increase leading to more mismatches meaning it's a long wait from April to mid July for competitive action. It’s the teams in Division Two and Three that are really bearing the brunt and seeing the bigger sides head into the distance which the super eight will only exacerbate. The tier two sides of Ulster that really stand out are this week's pairing of Down v Derry. How did it come to this and so quickly? My earliest GAA memories are seeing my own Donegal battle with these two giants in Ulster and go on to dominate the All Ireland series. Down have had the greatest tradition of all Ulster sides playing the best football and producing such talented footballers as James McCartan, Ross Carr, Benny Coulter and Marty Clarke. It was only 2010 when they so easily could have nicked another All Ireland title. On Saturday they won their first competitive game since 2015. Their panel is void of quality players and their county board seem to go from one mess to another with managerial disappointments and structural apathy that has seen a rot set in the minor game and club scene. Derry looks a county more interested in its club scene now than intercounty. Below them are Armagh who have fallen so low now that a full recovery looks longer away than ever under McGeeney. Which brings us to Galway vs Meath. Two more giants of the game languishing in division two for far too long. Last weekends results means Galway now sit top of the table. A win for Kevin Walsh’s men means they could soon be leaving the ordinary 25 teams in Ireland and join the big eight. All the county board needs to do now is find €3 million to fund two intercounty teams competing at the highest level. Odds to be Promoted

Galway 4/11

Kildare 4/6

Cork 5/6

Derry 5/1

Meath 8/1

#gaa

Media and Politics

Mark Zuckerberg finally admitted last week that Facebook may have inadvertently ruined the world. Well not just Facebook but all social media in general. Whether you are tweeting, snapping or statusing, the ability to comment, share and interact with the entire world as news breaks has had a profound effect on mankind in such a short time. The biggest problem with social media is we follow and interact with people in our own interest group. Thereby we see mostly our own viewpoint and become more entrenched in it. It is one of the major reasons the world is so polar now as this constant reinforcement is putting us into certain camps which we have seen for Brexit and Trump. Like angry hordes these groups cannot believe there are people out there than have a different outlook or persuasion and the discourse between them when they do clash drives division further. How is Zuckerberg is going to put the genie back in the bottle now? Traditional media is now under constant attack because of social media’s affect on it. The leader of the free world now portrays major news outlets such as CNN as “fake news”. People believe what they want to believe and social media is there to give them back their own world view. Here at home, people are as likely to keep abreast of current affairs from Waterford Whispers as opposed to RTE. There are of course times when social media does play a big part when traditional media lets down the masses like during the water charges but overall are we better off for today’s version of gathering news? Are we now better or worse informed than we waited until 6pm and waited to hear what Brian Dobson had to tell us? Having experts curate the news for us was no bad thing. We have more information than ever before but are we drowning in it? Most cannot tell real from fake news nor stand back from their own entrenched point of view regardless of the facts disproving it. We don’t trust the media for the most part as the media themselves have started to ape social media and instead of telling the real news are now telling their own demographic of audience what they want to hear. With fewer willing to pay for quality journalism and advertising under attack on traditional media, the cost of producing quality content is harder only exacerbating the problem. All in all, we’re on the road to ruin and unless we change course Trump will not be the last politician to get elected because he suits today’s media of viral content and quick digestible soundbites. He gives his opposition so much material but they are not making inroads getting outraged with his every move. When he does present the liberal media an opportunity to knock him out they could already be boxed out themselves from throwing so many punches to land that crucial knockout. Trump is 13/8 to serve a second term with Paddy Power so the current chat of impeachment right now is only again his enemies telling their audience what they want to hear. Closer to home our own scandals are overwhelming the social media feeds. Michael Martin is now 2/5 to be the next Taoiseach after the general election which is 2/9 that it is held this year. Do we really have the energy for another election? I’m deleting all my social media apps soon and try and find the most partisan media to follow this election. Any recommendations?

#Donald Trump #election #brexit #enda kenny #social media #tradional media #mark zuckerberg

Corofin croaked

It will be a real shame locally not to see Corofin in another All Ireland final but they can have few complaints. Dr Coke’s completely outclassed them and after many pundits predicted a St Vincent's and Corofin final instead we have a fascinating matchup.

The narrative is simply divine especially if the small Derry village of Slaughtneil can pull off the double in the hurling and beat Cuala, another Dublin champion in two weeks time. What will the GAA do then if both sides make the St Patrick Day final? Their opponents in the football Dr Crokes looked superb on Saturday and in fairness you couldn’t begrudge the greatest player in the modern game if he finally won that one title that eludes him. The biggest winner will of course be the Gooch’s employers AIB and in fairness I commend them for pumping such effort into their sponsorship of the club game. Now if only they’d stop fleecing me with their quarterly fees for the privilege of having a bank account.

As for Corofin, it’s back to the drawing board and the drive for five Frank Fox Cups in a row. The Galway Club championship draws were made last week in both codes. In the football Cortoon have the unenviable task of taking on the champions. Tie of the round is Salthill Knocknacarra versus Milltown. However with Corofin now 3/10 and no other side shorter than 12/1, it still looks like everyone else is playing for a runners up medal.

In the hurling, the new system means you can’t really avoid a tough group anymore but with St Thomas, Gorton and Portumna all ending up in Senior B, sides like Loughrea and Craughwell must have been delighted with the draw. Unlike the football, this looks wide open with the first three sides mentioned all at the head of the outright market GALWAY SENIOR FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP 2017

Outright Betting

Corofin 3/10

Mountbellew/Moylough 12/1

Salthill 14/1

Tuam Stars 14/1

Milltown 20/1

Annaghdown 20/1 GALWAY SENIOR HURLING CHAMPIONSHIP

Outright Betting

St Thomas 10/3

Gort 7/2

Portumna 11/2

Loughrea 7/1

Turloughmore 15/2

Craughwell 11/1

Sarsfields 16/1

Cheltenham chaos

As I said I’m really looking forward to the club finals but for once I can’t say the same for the Cheltenham festival. National Hunt racing for too long has put all its eggs in this one week with every race beforehand merely a trial and horses overprotected. Now that folly has come how to roost. The Champion Hurdle has often been the feature of the week but the term ‘Champion’ will be as meaningful this year as the term Celebrity when it’s added to Big Brother. Willie Mullins who trained eight and ten winners in the last two festivals must have overtaken a hearse on the way home last year. So far this season he has lost Vautour, Faugheen, Min, Annie Power, all the Gigginstown horses and another half dozen quality animals owned by Rich Ricci. The festival has also lost other superstars, more than any other year and we still have a month to go yet. With Willie Mullins really only having Douvan as a penalty kick, keep an eye on the specials market to oppose him for top trainer and Ruby for top jockey. Barry Geraghty for top jockey is starting to look a value play to keep you interested for the whole week with his retained owner JP McManus having far more ammunition across the week. JP is odds on to be top owner but you can get 11/4 on Barry riding the most winners in the week.

#Galway #Gaa #cheltenhamfestival

Springtime sporting heaven

Whether the groundhog emerges from its burrow tomorrow or not won’t bother me. Any potential upturn in the weather is only one of the good things about this time of year. This weekend in the calendar signifies the Six Nations beginning alongside the GAA’s National League and on Sunday night it’s time for that all nighter to watch the Superbowl. The Premier League didn’t want to lose much attention either scheduling Arsenal and Chelsea on Saturday morning. Must remember to be nice to the wife this week so she’ll leave me in peace for most of Saturday and Sunday. Galway begin their campaign at Pearse Stadium with the most important fixture of the division against Cork. I’ve said it many times but Cork are the greatest underachievers in the modern game. They have the players to be consistently in the later stages in late August but have lost their way tactically since 2012. Last season was a new low relegated and beaten in Munster by Tipperary. They started last season with a vicious beating by Donegal and followed up with a shocking defeat by Roscommon. This year though could be the medicine of building up their confidence. Remember they won this division in 2009 and followed up with a hattrick of Division One titles from 2010-2012. They have had a few retirements but Aidan Walsh is back in the fold which a big plus. As for Galway, we won’t have the Corofin panel back until the middle of February at the earliest but Johnny Duane, Fiontán Ó Curraoin and even Sean Armstrong are back in the fold. Kevin Walsh has claimed his panel are training like dogs but forget Sunday’s FBD title or even the Connacht championship. This season’s main goal should be promotion. It’s now five years in this division and if we examined Galway’s championship form in the last few years with two quarter finals and a fourth round of the qualifiers reached we could make the case Galway are a top eight side. That won’t really happen though until they get seven tough games under belts from February until April against the likes of Kerry and Dublin before the championship. Last season Galway incredibly drew three of their seven games in the league. This year converting two of them into wins should be enough. Outside Cork who is the danger? Clare have some quality but not enough, Derry and Down are yo yo teams that Galway have experience of beating. The away match to Meath will the second most crucial game but win this weekend and Galway go odds on to get a top two finish and promotion. It really does start with a bang. Match Odds: Galway Evens, Cork Evens, Draw 15/2. National League Predictions; Dublin to win Division One, Galway to be promoted from DIvision Two, Tipperary to be promoted from Division Three and Westmeath to win Division Four pays just over 16/1 with Paddy Power.The club hurling semi final between Galway champion’s St Thomas and Clare champion’s Ballyea is on Saturday at Semple Stadium. No strong opinion on this one I’m afraid with St Thomas marginal favourites at 5/6 with Paddy Power

#Gaa

Who will make their mark this year?

Who will make their mark this year? If you are reading this column it means we haven't entered a nuclear winter just yet so let us focus of the positives of 2017 and assume we’ll get to see an entire year of GAA action . The big change this season has been the introduction of the mark. A player who catches a goalkeeper’s kickout between the 45 lines can now either play on or call a mark and take a free kick. They have only five seconds to take the free kick otherwise it’s a throw ball. The general consensus from GAA fans is that it will be a nonsense rule, just another thing for the referee to get confused by and will not add anything to contribute to a more free flowing game. These have all been said to me and whilst that very well may be the case, gaelic football fans tend to a tad negative so I’d look to the possibility of genuine innovation on the field and which teams can lead the way. This rule change won’t suddenly make this a battle between 6 ft 5” midfielders but sides that have that combination of pinpoint goalkeeping kickouts, excellent fieldings and a speedy half back line that can create space after the mark for the follow up free kick can get some real joy. Also watch out late in a crucial game this season for some aerial bombardment. Flood the midfield to catch the high ball and as it’s landing in the area already men will be moving upfield awaiting that long kick into the danger zone to press for a late goal. It will lead to excitement but who will benefit most? My Ulster brethren have been the most negative about it and I cannot see it benefiting either Tyrone, Donegal or Monaghan much. Dublin are not blessed with height but do have superb movement and Cluxton can use it to control games late or get a foothold. Kerry do have David Moran and Anthony Maher and have speed in the half forwards. Sides that could benefit from the rule change most though are Mayo for obvious reasons and last year’s change to a more kicking style may bear fruit this year. Meath have Brian Menton and Cian O’Brien making the most of the mark rule whilst Galway have the midfield and the kicking game to create space. Sides like Roscommon and the Ulster sides who haven't got that advantage yet will play their kickouts short and try and slowly work the ball up the field. Either way it won’t remove the emphasis on speed and movement. Hopefully it won’t just fail like the black card and will help sides punch holes across into opposition half forward lines from oncoming half backs pushing up. If it turns into a situation though that midfielders are playing the ball backwards from the mark and recycling, then god help the gaa rule makers from the wave of anger that will come their way. I’d be more optimistic though and think this change should be bring about some fascinating tactical nous from the likes of Rochford, Walsh and et al. It’s the start of the Sigerson Cup today and NUIG should have an easy win today hosting Trinity at Dangan whilst GMIT are 3/1 underdogs in Tuam to Sligo IT tomorrow. NUIG are 20/1 to lift the trophy but the competition should be between Queens 2/1, UCD 4/1 and DCU 9/2. The NUIG hurlers face DCU at Dangan today too and are 10/1 for the Fitzgibbon Cup.

#Gaa

Connacht’s season decider

Connacht’s season decider One day you're the cock of the walk, the next a feather duster. Life is all about the rises and falls and it’s that fluid nature that makes it so interesting. Last week I talked about the Premier League pulling away from Europe and the same train of thought could have been said about European rugby. The change in rules for the Champions Cup coincided at a time when French and English clubs financial muscles were leaving the rest in the shade. This tournament’s Anglo French dominance coupled with the need to fork out for two separate sports subscriptions.caused overall interest to plummet. Leinster were going backwards, Munster’s Thomond Park was a ghost town and the only good thing going in Irish club rugby was here in Galway. Fast forward to now and Munster look like they’ve turned the clock back ten years whilst Leinster became the first side to qualify for the last eight. On the flipside teams like Racing Metro and Leicester have completely imploded this season. Connacht too sit atop their table. With their reign as champions of the Pro12 now certain to end with the playoffs out of reach, it means this weekend’s game away in Toulouse is the season decider. There are various permutations at play but with Wasps only one point behind after they snatched a 17-14 victory on Saturday and a hopeless Zebre to play this week, it can safely be assumed anything other than a bonus point victory means Connacht are playing for second at best. A losing bonus point should be enough to book a quarter final berth and with Lam finally having practically his entire starting fifteen fit for a change that is very much a distinct possibility. An early try or two though for Connacht and suddenly the match could turn into a chase for three Irish sides topping their group and even an outside chance of all three Irish provinces with home advantage in the quarter finals. Either way the turnaround has been remarkable. At the outset Leinster were 33/1 and Munster were 80/1 for the Champions Cup. They are now 4/1 and 15/2 respectively. Connacht are still 100/1 shots though with Paddy Power reflecting the bookies belief, they’ll fall just short this weekend to qualify. Italian woes Spare a thought for one Irishman Conor O’Shea as he tries to turn around Italian fortunes. So close over the years only for the lack of a decent fly half, Italian rugby really needs to reinvigorate itself especially at club level. Zebre are going into extinction and not a moment too soon. They look on life support and their finances might not last the season.. Conceding 43 tries in the pool so far as well as regular 50 point plus beating in the Pro12. Treviso are not much better as both sides sit at the foot of the table offering nothing but confidence boosters for Celtic wingers. A new franchise in Rome is on the cards but the whole country needs to rebuild again and quickly. The national team's victory over South Africa was of course only back in November but as great as that was, perhaps it highlights more the Springboks fall in standards. Georgia are above Italy in the world rankings yet may never get in because of money Bonus points are now in the Six Nations and if the national team performs like the club sides losing heavily in every match, the Georgians must surely press for inclusion or for relegation to be introduced.

#championscup #Connacht #rugby #Leinster #munster

Premier League worse than Brexit for Europe

When you examine the root of Irish people's fascination with English football, it really is a barmy thing. We were the first of our kind to go nuts for a sporting league in another country. I'm not talking about the casual interest most of us have. I'm referring to the utterly obsessed Premier League fans out there. Staying glued to Soccer Saturday for more than just keeping tabs on the weekend coupon. Then there's that group in a mini league fantasy football spending their Fridays scanning news to find out has Hull City's Robert Snodgrass done his hamstring. Finally there are the actual diehard fans. Those people that say 'We' when talking about Man Utd or Liverpool. The connection is often no more fickle than Ronnie Whelan played for Liverpool in 1988 when that fan was four and he dived in open minded back then and now 28 years later that person sulks for days when his team cannot beat Sunderland on a Saturday. I saw a kid in my neighbourhood recently in a Stoke City top. What in the bejesus would make a young fella from Galway cling to a team like that? I suppose we all like belonging to a Tribe and whilst it would be great to head to Terryland instead and put your passions local, I accept it's a totally different product and we cannot turn back the hand of time.

The Premier League is second only to the NFL as the biggest league in world sport. The product is now obsessed over by the whole world with clubs having fans from every corner so I guess the Irish were pioneers in obsessing about a foreign league first. The reason is the overall standard is world class and the competitiveness is the best anywhere at the highest level.

The problems though lie elsewhere. The fanatics worldwide hooked won't care but the Premier League is destroying the rest of the footballing world. TV money has turned Bournemouth into a bigger club than AC Milan and Borussia Dortmund. Teams across Europe cannot compete for the best players unless they're been artificially helped like PSG. Barcelona, Real, Bayern and perhaps Juventus are outliers that can afford the very cream of the game but underneath we see the same patterns.

The rest of the teams are now falling way behind, the gaps in these leagues is becoming unbridgeable so the French, German and Italian leagues all become one horse races. Across the smaller leagues, clubs like Celtic and Ajax have become trapped as big clubs in small TV markets and wither away and get picked off for top talent. They can't afford the wages of English teams that were until recently tiny in comparison to them. Clubs that can get 60,000-80,000 in their stadiums unable to match a seaside town who can't attract 14,000 spectators. Clubs that are too big for their own leagues but too small for the Champions League anymore. This means the Champions League turns into a non event until the semi finals. The group stages have turned into a snore but when the wage gap can be ten times bigger between the big and small club, mismatches are all too common.

All of this is happening as the concentration of money goes to the Premier League. On it's projected course unless the TV deal bursts, this problem will only get worse. Bayern and Juve will eventually bore their own fans from winning unchallenged domestically. Barca and Real could soon burst under shady tax deals and fall back. All that will be left is the Premier League. And it's all us Irish that are at fault for showing the world that a country can become obsessed with a league in a foreign country. We've only gone and ruined soccer worldwide. Premier League Title Odds: Chelsea 8/11, Liverpool 5/1, Man City 7/1, Spura 12/1, Arsenal 14/1, Man Utd 16/1

#premier league #european football #Brexit

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