My Oscar Thoughts and Predictions
2025 was a great year for movies, and since I've actually had the time to watch all the major nominees this year, I figured I'd put together my thoughts on who I'd vote for and who I think will actually win, as well as ranking all the best picture nominees. And yes, I'm mainly using this as a way to talk about movies, but I love talking about movies, so here we go.
I'm going to start with my predictions for the categories I haven't seen enough nominees for or don't really care to put my full thoughts on, and I'm completely skipping shorts and documentaries.
Best Visual Effects - Avatar: Fire and Ash Best Sound - F1 Best Makeup/Best Costume/Best Production - Frankenstein Best Animated Feature - Kpop Demon Hunters Best Film Editing - One Battle After Another is probably going to win this category just off the car chase scene alone, but that's really selling short how well the whole movie is put together. It would get my vote, and I think it's going to win Who I'd Vote For - One Battle After Another Who I Think Wins - One Battle After Another
Best Cinematography - Stacked category here, though it's going to come down to OBAA, Sinners, and Train Dreams. All beautiful looking movies in their own way, all would be deserving winners. OBAA and Sinners each had one of the most amazing scenes I've seen in movies, but overall, I think I'd put OBAA slightly ahead. But I think Sinners wins. Who I'd Vote For - One Battle After Another Who I Think Wins - Sinners
Best Casting - New category here, with no real way of knowing how they're going to vote on it. All 5 nominees have amazing casts full of colorful characters, but my favorite of the bunch is probably The Secret Agent. Although I wouldn't be upset with Sinners, OBAA, or Marty Supreme winning either. Who I'd Vote For - The Secret Agent Who I Think Wins - Sinners
Best Song - It's going to be Golden, but that's not even my favorite song from KPop Demon Hunters, and I Lied To You was the main part of one of the best scenes of the year, so it gets my vote. Who I'd Vote For - Sinners Who I Think Wins - KPop Demon Hunters
Best Original Score - Another two horse race between Sinners and OBAA (theme of the evening), Sinners score is more pleasant to listen to, while OBAA's is abrasive in a way that really adds to the tension of the movie. Both are great, but OBAA gets my vote here. Who I'd Vote For - One Battle After Another Who I Think Wins - Sinners
Best International Film - Admittedly I did not see all of these, but it's a two horse race and I'll talk about those two later, so let me briefly talk about It Was Just An Accident, which was a fantastic film touching on PTSD and revenge and doubt. Would've probably made my top 5 if it were nominated for Best Picture Who I'd Vote For: The Secret Agent Who I Think Wins: The Secret Agent
Best Adapted Screenplay - This is OBAA's Oscar to lose, and it's not going to. Countless memorable scenes of both dialogue and action. Who I'd Vote For - One Battle After Another Who I Think Wins - One Battle After Another
Best Original Screenplay - This is Sinners' Oscar to lose, and it's not going to. The first hour or so of character introductions and backstory is fantastic, and I'd love to see how the piercing the veil scene is scripted out. Who I'd Vote For - Sinners Who I Think Wins - Sinners
Best Supporting Actress - Much like most of the acting races, this one is tough to call. I think it's a three woman race between Amy Madigan, Wunmi Mosaku, and Teyana Taylor, who all grab hold of every scene they're in to full effect. However, my personal favorite role wasn't nominated, and that's Tânia Maria, who absolutely delighted in The Secret Agent. Who I'd Vote For - Teyana Taylor - OBAA Who I Think Wins - Amy Madigan - Weapons
Best Supporting Actor - 5 great performances here, but if I'm being honest, 2 really stretch my definition of "supporting" so that leaves it up to three. Benicio Del Toro grabbed hold of every scene he was in during OBAA, providing a sense of calmness to an otherwise chaotic film. Sean Penn on the other hand is somehow comically terrifying, as almost an terminator like figure (and that walk lmao). Meanwhile Delroy Lindo was great as an aging blues musician, adding presence to every scene he was in. Tough pick, but since I have to... Who I'd Vote For - Delroy Lindo - Sinners Who I Think Wins - Sean Penn - OBAA
Best Actress - They should put this award first because Jessie Buckley has been locked in for weeks. But I'd vote Rose Byrne, who was outstanding carrying the absolute stress machine that was If I Had Legs I'd Kick You. Who I'd Vote For - Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You Who I Think Wins - Jessie Buckley - Hamnet
Best Actor - This is an absolute clown car full of great contenders, including some left on the outside who are absolutely worthy (Jesse Plemons I'm looking at you). I'd be happy with literally any of them winning. But the person I'd vote for is the one who's been on everyone's shit list lately, which is unfortunate because he's absolutely fantastic in Marty Supreme, completely losing himself in the role while taking the audience on a journey. But he's not going to win because the Academy hates young actors as well as actors who are too...excitable. So I'm going to predict my number two choice wins, but really it could be anyone, with no real favorite. Who I'd Vote For - Timothée Chalamet - Marty Supreme Who I Think Wins - Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent
Best Director - It's past time for PTA to win this award, and I'd say that even if I didn't think he had the best directed movie of the year. But OBAA is, somehow making it's almost 3 hour runtime feel like nothing, while squeezing you in it's grip the entire time. Who I'd Vote For - Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another Who I Think Wins - Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another
Best Picture Rankings 10: Frankenstein - This one was really nice to look at but just felt like it was missing something to me. 9: F1 - The most dad movie possible. Plot was nothing to write home about, but it was visually great and the sound for this movie was truly fantastic. I had more fun with this than Frankenstein, hence it being ranked above. 8: Hamnet - The last 30 or so minutes of this movie are fantastic, the rest of the movie however is...fine? Just didn't really do anything for me, I guess. But it's more well made than F1 and that last half hour truly carries it. 7: Train Dreams - Visually stunning, Joel Edgerton gave a great, introspective performance here. Although it lost a little bit of luster with me after finding out it cut out most of the teeth in the story from the book 6: Bugonia - The hardest one for me to rate. On days I like the ending, it's ranked near the top. On days I hate the ending, it's ranked at the bottom. So this feels like the right spot for it. 5: Sentimental Value - This was a fantastic movie about generational trauma that's extremely well acting, but it's just missing something to push it over the line from great to outstanding category that the final four movies are 4: Marty Supreme - What a journey this one was, from the opening seconds all the way through the climax. At the beginning it just plays out like an off beat sports movie, but then it takes every detour possible, until it somehow manages to make it back on course for the finale. I had a blast with this one. 3: Sinners - The first hour and a half or so of this movie might be my favorite movie of the year, but if I'm being honest, the climax just felt too...Idk, clean to me. Everything up to the Rocky Road to Dublin sequence was superb, but when it finally got to the action filled climax, it just felt like another movie to me, before picking up after for the finale and mid-credits scene. Which is funny cause I've seen people say the opposite, where they felt the first half was boring but the second half was amazing. But as a whole, the movie was still fantastic, it's just that little dip in the key moment that keeps me from ranking it higher. 2: The Secret Agent - These final two are movies that I have not been able to stop thinking about since I saw them. This movie was a masterclass in the shifting reality of memories and grief and living through a time of turmoil while actually taking the time to live. Unlike Sinners, where I felt the climax was a bit too straightforward, the climax here completely subverted my expectations and left me lying dead in front of a gas station. I realize some people might not feel the same way about the ending, but for me personally, it hit a part of my psyche that I've been unable to shake. I was looking for a reason to rank this first, however... 1: One Battle After Another - I rewatched this movie late on Friday night, because I wanted to confirm I wasn't misremembering how great it was before I ranked it at the top spot. I started it at midnight, and somehow I was more awake by the time I ended it at 3am than when I started. Just absolute top notch film-making all around. Beautifully shot, scored perfectly, acted fantastically with distinct characters that you can't stop quoting months and probably years after the fact. Somehow both hilarious and terrifying, but also very aware of the times we're living in.
I think OBAA is going to end up being the winner based on the preferential ballot method, and it's going to be fully deserved. But I also think all 3 of my top ranked movies would be worthy winners, and I'm just really glad we had a year of movies where I can say that. Here's hoping 2026 has the same track record.
