ContraryThinker

[contrarythinker]

Volatility Reports the Big Picture

Volatility Reports the Big Picture. What has happened after all the crashes and bear markets since 1987 is the increased interest in portfol

Take four minutes to read this post, its timely and critical

[contrarythinker]

Volatility Reports 1/3/22

Markets do not experience panic sell-offs from top tick, the clock hit reset by the Dow on the 29th. Furthermore, breakouts to new highs do not necessitate more bull market. The dilemma is as old as Shakespeare, to be or not to be, or ” do I trade the break or fade the break. PLUS, I will not make any excuses for a pet peeve here, but smiley faces drawn on stock charts is not TA and they are not…

View On WordPress

[contrarythinker]

Volatility Reports 1/3/22

Markets do not experience panic sell-offs from top tick, the clock hit reset by the Dow on the 29th. Furthermore, breakouts to new highs do not necessitate more bull market. The dilemma is as old as Shakespeare, to be or not to be, or ” do I trade the break or fade the break. PLUS, I will not make any excuses for a pet peeve here, but smiley faces drawn on stock charts is not TA and they are not…

View On WordPress

[contrarythinker]

MarketMap-2022 Issue #2

Both fiscal and monetary policy has always been able to “re-inflate” the economy and markets out of trouble. Throughout 2021 the consensus in this regard is they are painted into a corner. There is your back story for your clients, but the catalysts remain unknown. It will not be a piece of known bad news. Can math be stranger than fiction? Or is the following simply a coincidence, if coincidence…

View On WordPress

[contrarythinker]

Volatility Reports 12.21.21

The Short Volatility Play has Run its Course Contrary to Thinking is more than having a good “bad” attitude, it’s about knowing when to have an opposing point of view and when to run with the herd. It also has much to do with looking at reliable indicators that no one else is looking at. CT likes to analyze the SVXY, an EFT providing daily leveraged exposure to short-term VIX futures. It…

View On WordPress

[contrarythinker]

iCahn Day Trade Stock Index Futures

iCahn Day Trade Stock Index Futures

%BB Dynamic Breakout and Reversal The development of a trading system first considers its time horizon Since the strategy %BB-DBR is day trading then by definition, it must exit on or before the end of the day. This is a key to understanding how and why day traders do and act as they do because they must be correct for a limited period, not days weeks months but within hours. With that being the…

View On WordPress

[contrarythinker]

Trade Ideas on Your Smart Phone for only $10/Month

Trade Ideas on Your Smart Phone for only $10/Month

The alchemy of trading volatility (VX) is not magic for the fool. You must be the sorcerer and not his apprentice Cycle peaks are clustered in this time frame, from the peak on Nov. 18 for the Dow into today the 16th and fill out Monday the 20th. They all relate to their own 2 to 2 1/2 year cycle, which creates a variance of a small degree. One cycle is 2.2353 years, for example. To pick out a…

View On WordPress

[contrarythinker]

Volatility Reports 12.13.21

Trading Fact of life #22:  an optimist is more successful at trading. They make opportunities out of difficulties. Pessimists will pay attention only to information that fits their point of view. They will see nothing else. Optimists will look for opportunities no matter which way the wind is blowing, long or short. Keep MarketMap-2022 in mind and reference to the new two-year cycle, it will…

View On WordPress

[contrarythinker]

Volatility Reports 12.6.21

The alchemy of trading volatility (VX) is not magic for the fool. You must be the sorcerer and not his apprentice The key for my traders this week is that the trend has changed direction. But along with that change is a change in the way the market makes it from point A to point B. The BTFD after a two-day slump is gonzo, and sharp and sudden moves are here to stay, AKA volatility. This first…

View On WordPress

[contrarythinker]

Thinking Man's Trader Developer's Video #1

Thinking Man’s Trader Developer’s Video #1

View On WordPress

[contrarythinker]

MarketMap 2022 Annual Scenario Planner

MarketMap 2022 Annual Scenario Planner

The most obvious synchronicities of historical events happen at the beginning of the cycle. Times when change becomes unavoidable The first topic I want to highlight here is that the history of the stock market in the states does not start with 1950, which is all I read from the “information” providers regarding their statistics. As if the baby boom was going to last forever, which peaked in…

View On WordPress

[contrarythinker]

View On WordPress

[contrarythinker]

Understand the Trade Spreadsheet

Understand the Trade Spreadsheet

These post pages do not go out spontaneously. We post and text alerts in the LinkedIn Group to let everyone know. However, we are looking at several smartphone apps that will interface with the blog that will send out an alert to your phone. I hope to have this done before the first of the year. In the meantime, this video is helpful on how to use the spreadsheet of trade ideas.   Copyright…

View On WordPress

[contrarythinker]

Volatility Reports 11.15.21 Video Outlook

Volatility Reports 11.15.21 Video Outlook

Contrary Thinker is more than a Contrarian, the founder of the New School of Technical Analysis.     Traders like Jesse Livermore spoke about his first principle that making big money is by the sitting and the waiting, not the trading. They are waiting until all the factors are in favor of his trading strategy before making the trade. The modern-day hedge funds control risk by not taking a risk,…

View On WordPress

[contrarythinker]

Volatility Reports 11/9/21

What do we know? What are the facts that are undeniable? We know that since the Reagan revolution 45 years ago the power regime changed. With that, the fiscal policy of the United States changed. With the 1980 election came a very long-term break from Rooseveltian “New Deal” fiscal policy. By the election of 2020, the major change was clear from the “New Deal”  to the new “Gilded Ages”…

View On WordPress

[contrarythinker]

Volatility Reports 11.8.21

They all like to refer to Robert J Farrell and quote his ten rules But few if any worked for him and the majority pay his rules lip service quoting them in social media marketing as information only. As a contrarian here is one I live by at market extremes: ” When all the experts and forecasts agree something else is going to happen.  As Sam Stovall, the S&P investment strategist,  puts it:  “If…

View On WordPress

[contrarythinker]

iCahn Scalp the Stock Index Futures

iCahn Scalp the Stock Index Futures

iCahn Scalp is a simple trend following system that takes advantage of a high rate of change market. Obviously, these forceful trends do not happen every day. CT developed back in 2011 a volatility matrix that signals market context, as in when to expect a forceful trend. It is not a disclaimer to say its not perfect, but it does increase your odds of success; and my best team is always working…

View On WordPress