Couchside

A blog of miscellaneous NBA content updated irregularly to supplement your fanhood. Thanks to litandbasketball.tumblr.com and slaughterhouse90210.tumblr.com for the inspiration.

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2015-16  Regular Season Predictions

Eastern Conference

1. Cleveland Cavaliers 2. Washington Wizards 3. Chicago Bulls 4. Atlanta Hawks 5. Milwaukee Bucks 6. Miami Heat 7. Boston Celtics 8. Toronto Raptors

Tough omission: New York Knicks, Indiana Pacers

Not dead set on the Cavaliers as the one-seed, but still think they’re the only contender in the bunch. For the Wizards, I’m really optimistic about another year of John Wall, Bradley Beal, and Otto Porter (my pick for Most Improved Player), and think the additions of Jared Dudley and Alan Anderson more than compensate for the loss of Paul Pierce.

For the Bulls, I’m not sold on rookie head coach Fred Hoiberg’s ability to maintain a Thibs-tier defense, especially if he’s committed to starting a frontline of Nikola Mirotic and Pau Gasol, as is being reported.

Seems most have the Hawks sliding down by as much as 10 games after a 60-win season despite the only key loss being DeMarre Carroll and I’m inclined to agree. This is a team that stumbled its way into the playoffs and made one of the least threatening trips to the conference finals I can remember.

The first draft had the Bucks as the second seed (!), but I’ve since tempered on them being able to maintain what was a top-two defense in the second half of the season. They were the East team I had the hardest time placing.

Generally feel pretty confident about the top six, with the last two slots a crapshoot of only nominal playoff contenders. This was a great year to remove the requirement for an Atlantic Division top-four seed.

Western Conference

1. Golden State Warriors 2. Los Angeles Clippers 3. Houston Rockets 4. Oklahoma City Thunder 5. San Antonio Spurs 6. Memphis Grizzlies 7. New Orleans Pelicans 8. Utah Jazz

Tough omission: Phoenix Suns

The top five are a clear tier above the rest and ultimately placement will just come down to injuries. But I still feel confident locking in the Warriors at the one. Everyone knows they had one of the most dominant regular seasons ever last year, but people seem to be discouraged by their post-season for some reason. Yeah, they faced weak teams, but you can’t knock them for that. And yeah, they fell behind 2-1 twice. But those four losses came by an average of five points and both series were closed out with 3-0 finishes with deficits of 17, 20, and 13, then 21, 13, and 8. No one came close to as good last year. They’re in a league of their own until proven otherwise.

Buying low on the Clippers again and tempering expectations for Kevin Durant and the Thunder until I see them play. High hopes about their rejuvenated Billy Donovan offense, though, and I’d take them as my second favorite to win the West if Durant is Durant.

I wonder if last season changes at all Gregg Popovich’s philosophy on pacing himself through the regular season since a last-day loss ended up dropping them from second to sixth seed and pitting them against the Clippers in the first round, where they lost on a last-second game-seven Chris Paul bank shot. I wouldn’t bet on it, though.

Insane that at least two of those top five will have to face off in the first round.

You could talk me into the Pelicans finishing sub-49 wins with how injured that roster is, but...

Most Valuable Player

1. Anthony Davis, Pelicans 2. James Harden, Rockets 3. Stephen Curry, Warriors 4. Kevin Durant, Thunder 5. LeBron James, Cavaliers

Dark horse: Chris Paul, Clippers

It’s time! Is it fair to have Davis as MVP for a team that I picked to finish seventh in the West when James Harden took a similarly ravaged team to the second seed and still couldn’t win last season? I think so. Davis’s numbers are going to be (far) superior, the Rockets were a misleading two-seed (only one game better than the sixth-seeded Spurs and 11 wins worse than the one-seed ) and besides, I tabbed Harden as my MVP last year, too. With his usage rate set to spike, I think 26 points, 11 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 blocks, 1.5 steals and shooting splits of 53/35/80 are in play for Davis.

Of note is that the top three are players without MVP-caliber teammates to cannibalize votes from them. And I think everyone’s pretty much accepted James doesn’t go all out in the regular season anymore.

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Anthony Davis, Pelicans 2. Draymond Green, Warriors 3. Serge Ibaka, Thunder 4. DeAndre Jordan, Clippers 5. Kawhi Leonard, Spurs

Dark horse: Rudy Gobert, Jazz

It’s really too bad Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is missing this season.

Rookie of the Year

1. Jahlil Okafor, Sixers 2. Karl Anthony-Towns, Timberwolves 3. Mario Hezonja, Magic 4. Emmanuel Mudiay, Nuggets 5. Kristaps Porzingis, Knicks Dark horse: Stanley Johnson, Pistons; D’Angelo Russell, Lakers

Yeah, I barely did more than randomly order lottery picks and weigh them by what some media members think. Not going to pretend I watched college or summer league.

Coach of the Year

1. Steve Kerr, Warriors 2. Billy Donovan, Thunder 3. Doc Rivers, Clippers 4. Kevin McHale, Rockets 5. Gregg Popovich, Spurs

Dark horse: Brad Stevens, Celtics; Fred Hoiberg, Bulls

Win the West and you get this award. For me to consider an Eastern team, it would take the Nets winning a ridiculous number of games. Like at least 40.

Most Improved Player

1. Otto Porter, Wizards 2. Shabazz Muhammad, Timberwolves 3. CJ McCollum, Blazers 4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks 5. Terrence Jones, Rockets

Dark horse: Mirza Teletovic, Suns

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Enes Kanter, Thunder 2. Ty Lawson, Rockets 3. Taj Gibson, Bulls 4. Shabazz Muhammad, Timberwolves 5. Isaiah Thomas, Celtics

Dark horse: Jeremy Lin, Hornets; Joakim Noah, Bulls

Eat it, Tristan.

Executive of the Year

1. RC Buford, Spurs

Dark horse: Not RC Buford, Not Spurs

All-NBA Teams

Stephen Curry, Warriors James Harden, Rockets LeBron James, Cavaliers Kevin Durant, Thunder Anthony Davis, Pelicans

Russell Westbrook, Thunder Chris Paul, Clippers Blake Griffin, Clippers LaMarcus Aldridge, Spurs DeMarcus Cousins, Kings

John Wall, Wizards Gordon Hayward, Jazz Kawhi Leonard, Spurs Carmelo Anthony, Knicks Brook Lopez, Nets

Tough omissions:

Kyrie Irving, Cavaliers Kyle Lowry, Raptors Klay Thompson, Warriors Jimmy Butler, Bulls Paul George, Pacers Kevin Love, Cavaliers Marc Gasol, Grizzlies

All-Defensive Teams

Marcus Smart, Celtics Chris Paul, Clippers Kawhi Leonard, Spurs Draymond Green, Warriors Anthony Davis, Pelicans Andre Iguodala, Warriors Tony Allen, Grizzlies Rudy Gobert, Jazz Serge Ibaka, Thunder DeAndre Jordan, Clippers

Tough omissions: Avery Bradley, Celtics Paul George, Pacers Nerlens Noel, Sixers Roy Hibbert, Lakers Dwight Howard, Rockets

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"We're all puppets, Laurie. I'm just a puppet who can see the strings."

— Watchmen, Alan Moore

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“But man is not made for defeat. A man can be destroyed but not defeated.”

― The Old Man and the Sea, Ernest Hemingway

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Baby come back, any kind of fool could see There was something in everything about you Baby come back, you can blame it all on me I was wrong, and I just can't live without you

“Baby Come Back” — Player

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“When you tear out a man's tongue, you are not proving him a liar, you're only telling the world that you fear what he might say.”

― A Clash of Kings, George R.R. Martin

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“The loneliest moment in someone’s life is when they are watching their whole world fall apart, and all they can do is stare blankly.”

― The Great Gatsby, F. Scott Fitzgerald

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2014-15 Regular Season Predictions

Eastern Conference

1. Cleveland Cavaliers 2. Chicago Bulls 3. Brooklyn Nets 4. Washington Wizards 5. Toronto Raptors 6. Atlanta Hawks 7. Charlotte Hornets 8. New York Knicks

Zach Lowe is on the record predicting that these Cavaliers will finish the season with the best offensive rating... in history. He's also effusive in his praise of rookie head coach David Blatt, which most of us have had to take on faith. In any case, LeBron James' Sports Illustrated article, which sought to reduce this coming season to a rebuilding year, now sounds transparently insincere given that it seems obvious James had every indication Kevin Love was incoming. The spacing on this team will be nuts and will seem unfair at times. Is this team going to survive starting three defensive turnstiles (Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters, Love), though?

The Bulls seem pretty secure with a minimum of a two-seed if Derrick Rose is healthy. They've fared more than well enough without him and this might be the  best roster the Bulls have put together this century. I believe Nikola Mirotic will be more of a contender for Rookie of the Year than Doug McDermott despite playing the same position as Pau Gasol and Taj Gibson. You find the time somewhere for someone with his skills.

I don't understand the pessimism surrounding the Nets, with some outlets pegging them as a lottery team. The Nets were a top-four seed last season until they tanked to face the Raptors despite their 10-21 start. While their two best players are health questions for an 82-game schedule, they can literally only be healthier than they were last season. Remembering a core of Deron Williams, Brook Lopez, and Joe Johnson won 49 games two years ago despite starting the offensively inept frontline of Reggie Evans and Gerald Wallace makes me confident in this placement.

I only have the Wizards at the four because of divisional seeding requirements. I expect the Raptors to rival the Nets for the Atlantic all season—they had the best final three quarters of the season of any team in 2013-14 and they're a young team. The Wizards did what they had to do to keep Marcin Gortat, but they took a step backwards replacing Trevor Ariza with Paul Pierce and I didn't like Randy Wittman's extension at all.

Al Horford's return should elevate what should've been a lottery team last season (really amazing what the Knicks did to let the Hawks in) into the perennial lower-rung playoff team the Hawks have been for the last decade with the chance to make some noise if Jeff Teague can become an All-Star talent. The Hornets had a dull off-season (embodied by the Noah Vonleh selection), but got great value in Lance Stephenson, who I think provides  enough perimeter firepower to take them to the playoffs.

I've had the Heat out of the playoffs since James left with my only hesitation being that I really like the Josh McRoberts addition and I have reservations about a rookie head coach teaching JR Smith the Triangle offense. One of the things that came out of Heat camp most over the last season was that their Finals trips made the regular season feel unimportant. That can only worsen now that James' departure makes them non-contenders. Chris Bosh can publicly argue all he wants that LeBron James made him a less effective player (OK...), but I'm not counting on someone who went scoreless in a Game 7 of the 2013 Finals returning to his 25-point, 11-rebound form. Dwyane Wade? Dwyane Wade.

Western Conference

1. Los Angeles Clippers 2. Golden State Warriors 3. San Antonio Spurs 4. Oklahoma City Thunder 5. Dallas Mavericks 6. Houston Rockets 7. Phoenix Suns 8. New Orleans Pelicans

Tough omission: Memphis Grizzlies, Portland Trailblazers, Denver Nuggets,

This is such a crapshoot conference that will so obviously come down to injuries that I don't feel confident in much here.

I think the Clippers will be the best team in the league and that Blake Griffin will take the injured Kevin Durant's spot as the best player in the West, if that wasn't clear already (Blazer fans...). They didn't really shore up their roster limitations, but they're pretty much due to establish themselves. Griffin's game seemingly gets more dynamic by the month, reducing the urgency of a second perimeter shot creator and DeAndre Jordan's emerged as a legitimately good post defender beyond just what his athleticism gives him. Will be interesting to see if Doc Rivers feels confident enough in Griffin's creating abilities to go with a four-out lineup substituting Spencer Hawes for Jordan late in games. Clipper-Cavalier games will be basketball porn.

Putting the Warriors second doesn't feel right. Most outlets have them as a second-tier team in the West behind the Clippers, Spurs, and Thunder, but I've got a good feeling about them. A team with this many offensive weapons really undershot its full potential last season, finishing 13th in adjusted offensive rating (below the Pelicans and just above the Nets and Grizzlies) and early indication is that Steve Kerr could be the one to un-Mark Jackson it. Klay Thompson developing a driving game can only help. Where the team sort of flew under the radar last season was on defense; they finished fourth in adjusted defensive rating behind only the Spurs and the offensively inept Bulls and Pacers. Expect that to improve with the addition of Shaun Livingston. I didn't even mention Stephen Curry. Feeling better about this pick.

At this point, even if you're not picking the Spurs to finish atop the West, you're probably still taking them to win the West. That's the case here. Moving on.

This is where it gets interesting. Does it seem right to bump up an even older Mavericks team? They were a top-three offense, added a recent Defensive Player of the Year (even if it is Tyson Chandler), replaced Vince Carter with Chandler Parsons, and were the only team to really make the Spurs' playoff run interesting. That seems more than I can say about any of the teams ranked under them.

You have to knock the Rockets down a few pegs for losing Jeremy Lin for seemingly no reason and replacing  Parsons with Trevor Ariza on the first of a four-year contract. I don't like resorting to absolute statements like this, but I can't fathom them missing the playoffs even in the West with two of the top 15 players in the league (and Dwight Howard had a top-three playoff performance despite their early bounce).

The Suns pick might be optimistic. This is a fun and young team that overcame a ton of pessimism last year to become the most surprising playoff contender in recent memory. I want it to be true. I want a roster of three point guards each capable of averaging 20 points and six assists to work. I want this team to win a playoff game against one of the established Western contenders in the first round behind an irresponsible 30-point Gerald Green performance and pitting Miles Plumlee against Blake Griffin or Tim Duncan. Why not?

On the flip side, New Orleans has an equally compelling threesome of bigs. Anthony Davis won't be an MVP candidate until he gets a contending roster, but he's already there talent-wise. You want to see Ryan Anderson bounce back after his tragic year last season. And however you feel about Omer Asik's situation with the Rockets, it'd be nice to see him return to relevance. They're trying Anderson at the three, which will probably be at least a month-long experiment to get all three minutes. They've got a perimeter rotation of big question marks in Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans, and Eric Gordon that'll probably determine their playoff fate.

Weird past few months for the Grizzlies, who successfully fought their way into the playoffs then lost rotation player Nick Calathes because he took a banned substance to treat his baldness and Zach Randolph for Game 7 for punching Steven Adams. Then their CEO and GM left due to disagreements with owner Robert Pera. Head coach Dave Joerger was to follow after Pera said he allowed him to interview for the Timberwolves job...and then he was signed to a mutli-year extension. Grizzlies didn't really do much outside of that and swapping Mike Miller for Vince Carter.

So why no Blazers in the playoffs? The easy answer is that their remarkable first 50-game run last season felt flukey (whatever that means). My answer is... yeah, it seriously just really seemed flukey. Their wins were by unusually small margins, not unlike their various overtime-filled victories in their playoff series against the Rockets... which ended in the flukiest way possible... and ended with the Rockets outscoring them in total by two. While they'll probably remain a top-10 offense, their defense leaves a lot to be desired in this West.

Really looking forward to having Danilo Gallinari back playing again and he'll be the biggest reason the Nuggets are back in the playoff picture after missing it for the first time since before Carmelo Anthony was drafted. I'm reading great things about rookie Jusuf Nurkic. Kenneth Faried was arguably Team USA's best player this past summer, but I don't think anyone's banking on him breaking out this season, right? As an aside, I still have this issue where I'm not really sure what to think of Ty Lawson as an NBA point guard. Is he better than Kyle Lowry?

Most Valuable Player

1. LeBron James, Cavaliers 2. Blake Griffin, Clippers 3. Stephen Curry, Warriors 4. Russell Westbrook, Thunder 5. Dwight Howard, Rockets

Dark horse: Derrick Rose, Bulls

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Joakim Noah, Bulls 2. Serge Ibaka, Thunder 3. Marc Gasol, Grizzlies 4. DeAndre Jordan, Clippers 5. Dwight Howard, Rockets

Dark horse: Anthony Davis, Pelicans

Rookie of the Year

1. Jabari Parker, Bucks 2. Andrew Wiggins, Timberwolves 3. Nerlens Noel, Sixers 4. Nikola Mirotic, Bulls 5. Julius Randle, Lakers Dark horse: Bojan Bogdanovic, Nets; Dante Exum, Jazz

Coach of the Year

1. Doc Rivers, Clippers 2. Steve Kerr, Warriors 3. David Blatt, Cavaliers 4. Rick Carlisle, Mavericks 5. Gregg Popovich, Spurs

Dark horse: Dwane Casey, Raptors

Most Improved Player

1. Iman Shumpert, Knicks 2. Rudy Gobert, Jazz 3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Hornets 4. Ed Davis, Lakers 5. Ricky Rubio, Timberwolves

Dark horse (aren't they all?): Patrick Patterson, Raptors

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Isaiah Thomas, Suns 2. Andre Iguodala, Warriors 3. Mirza Teletovic, Nets 4. Nikola Mirotic, Bulls 5. Doug McDermott, Bulls

Dark horse: Josh McRoberts, Heat

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“I wonder if you can refuse to inherit the world.”

― The Essential Calvin and Hobbes, Bill Watterson

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“A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day.”

― The Complete Calvin and Hobbes, Bill Watterson

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“Have I ever told you how glad I am we're not enemies?"

― Brisingr, Christopher Paolini

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“There is a stubbornness about me that never can bear to be frightened at the will of others. My courage always rises at every attempt to intimidate me.”

― Pride and Prejudice, Jane Austen

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"And then there was Achilles. Now there was a guy who had it all: the build, the foot speed. He could jab, he could take a hit, he could keep on comin'... But that furshlugginer heel of his! He barely gets nicked there once, and kaboom—he's history."

— Hercules (1997)

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“I hate to think that all my current experiences will someday become stories with no point.”

― Calvin and Hobbes: It's a Magical World, Bill Watterson

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“You are my best friend as well as my lover, and I do not know which side of you I enjoy the most. I treasure each side, just as I have treasured our life together.”

― The Notebook, Nicholas Sparks

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"You have been my friend. That in itself is a tremendous thing.”

― Charlotte's Web, E.B. White

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[doublescribble]

Joey Cienian (Website) Dirk and James: Lost in the Arctic.