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In August of 2015, I was invited to give a TED Talk. Here's the full (very stressful) story.

Speaking in public.

An argument for keeping interest rates low.

SHOULD experts in the public service follow rules, or rely on their own judgment? The answer is crucial for many areas of public policy, including criminal...

#monetary policy #Taylor rule

New research suggests it is debt, not frothy asset prices, that should worry regulators most

#monetary policy

Completely agree. I’ve been having this puzzle for a year or longer. They talk about weakness, but then turn around and say we are going to raise the rate. Somewhat hard to reconcile.

#current state #monetary policy

Having own currency helps:

Unemployment is 4 percent, the International Monetary Fund is predicting 4.1 percent G.D.P. growth for 2015, and tourism is booming.

#international trade and world market #Greece 2015 #Iceland

Adds some perspective on Greece:

As policy makers know well — and Germany perhaps better than any — major debt overhangs are solved only by writing down the debt. And the longer the delay, the deeper the pain.

#Greece 2015

New minutes are up: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20150617.pdf.

The central bank’s most recent meeting, in June, predated the worsening of the Greek debt crisis and the extended slump of the Chinese stock market.

#current state #monetary policy

By the time the global economic crisis is over, each dollar of excess investment in the housing market will likely have been responsible for roughly $6,000 in lost production. How can such a relatively small distortion in the allocation of investment cause so much economic damage?

#overinvestment #boom #bust #financial crisis #bubble #monetary policy

Tim Duy on the possibility of rate hike. If you are not reading his blog regularly, you should start as soon as you can.

#current state #monetary policy

Outside the central bank, there is doubt over the central bank's timeline for raising interest rates

#monetary policy #forecasting

A nice overview from The Economist.

#current state

FOR the world’s largest economy, 2015 has been a series of disappointments.

#current state

Rogoff argues that low interest rates that we see are due to de-leveraging, not long-term stagnation.

#secular stagnation

Monetary policy transmission

Kurgman: here and here

#monetary policy

Levels vs. changes (growth rates)

#basics #output

Illustrating connection between money and inflation during normal times and with zero lower bounds

#inflation #zero lower bound

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