The Apple Watch, is it a flop?
It’s been some time since the release of the Apple watch, and while it was highly anticipated the actual product most likely a flop. New reports indicate a 90% sales drop from release. History Back in 2013 I wrote an market research essay predicting the features of the Apple Watch based on industry reports such as orders for two different sized LCD screens being made by apple. Lo and behold it came out with two sizes.
In 2013 we already had the Pebble smartwatch, the Galaxy Gear, Sony was on its second iteration called the Sony SW2, the Toq and Martian. What we all expected from Apple especially those from the industry was a class leading design and utility that would set the standard and push these early developers to do better.
In fact it might have been because of the heavy focus on the hardware, the final fit and finish of the Apple Watch that these rumor mills and industry experts were expecting that caused the Watch we see today. Design The external hardware, the design of it as a watch is absolutely glorious completely setting a new standard as to what a smart watch should achieve for. The internals, however, not so much.
You see unlike a normal watch Casio’s, Rolex, Breitling, etc, whose internals last nearly forever, and have no real sense of depreciation, perhaps even appreciation as times goes on, the Apple Watch inherently is a digital device.
First, let’s bypass the whole notion of whether or not its useful, let’s just focus on the device itself. As a digital device, its internal components, the cpu, the battery, the display, is what really drives the device, the differentiating factor between an Apple Watch and a Breitling, for example. As we all know Moore’s law, processing power doubles, Doubles, every 18 months, so by next year this time, the Apple Watch 2 would have come out with vastly more utility/processing power than the current generation. So what does this mean? Well what it means is that the Apple Watch will depreciate faster than car fresh off lot driven straight into a ditch then waterboarded in the river. The Average option of an Apple Watch cost nearly 800 CAD, 800! For what? The Fit and Finish? And what happens when the Watch 2 comes out? Does anyone remember the first iPhone? Is that first iPhone worth it’s a original price? The difference here is that if Breitling or Rolex decided to introduce a new watch, the previously generation would most likely become more valuable as they become more rare and more limited. The actual function between the old Breitling and the new one differs very little. I’ve always considered this an issue with Apple’s marketing attempts at trying to sell the watch. It’s trying to sell the watch for all the wrong reasons. A smart watch is inherently a progressive device, the next one will always be better than the last one. So pricing it at the same price as a flagship smartphone, or perhaps I should mention the ones priced to compete with a new car, to be completely idiotic borderline insanity isn’t really going too far.
At this point you might say to yourself, “Well, people buy brand new smartphones every couple of years at full price, so why not the Apple Watch?”
Good question, here’s the answer, it’s because Apple decided to position itself to compete with the luxury watchmakers rather than the rest of the smart watches currently in the market. In contrast, the Smartphone scene doesn’t have anyone else other than Apple and Samsung as top dog with everyone else, Sony, Nokia, Blackberry trailing far behind. In the watch scene they’re competing with everyone and their mothers for the real estate on a person’s wrist.
Don’t get me wrong, I like new technology, though I may have a Casio Aviator sitting on my wrist now, I still find very little reason to spend money to replace it. Solutions? Apple still can salvage it this situation. They can offer free or discounted internal upgrades, because clearly majority of the money and focus went on external design. Especially for the 13K versions. (Can you imagine sitting with a 13K Apple watch that barely functions two years down the road while everyone else with fresh 800 bucks has better functionality and design?)
There is another side to this, mostly a Chinese Cultural thing, but this is getting a little long winded so I might follow up in a separate post. Thoughts? Why do you think it’s not working out so well? Sources:
http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-watch-sales-estimates-2015-7











