I just want to talk about the Will trade rumors in a way that has very little to do with Mack or the fact that Will is Macks bestie. (Well i might go there a little.)
The only way you, as a GM, would trade a player is if you were going to get similar/better back. Value, of course, is relative to the team in play.
As for the Sharks we actually have 2 very big issues atp in the rebuild. Both are extremely fixable but both will take time. One is, of course, defense. Grier has started working on this. We have guys in the pipeline who are getting closer to being ready to play.
The left side in particular probably has 1 too many atp. You have Orlov for 1 more season, Dicky, Cags (who I think gets at least a 20-30 game try out this season), Muk (who I would expect to come back short term low AAV on a prove it deal), and Nolan Allen. It is very likely you start the season with a left side of Orlov, Dicky, and Cags with Muk playing on his off side again. (Personally I like this in part because when Orlov leaves next season Muk takes his spot and there's a ready made space for Pohlkamp).
The right side is, of course, the issue. You've only got Kesselring under contract for next season. That's it. Even if you play Muk on the right side there's still a hole there. I still think its likely you resign Vinny who could take that spot and then you play Allan as 7.
All of these guys are at a point where you either need to play them or move them so they have a chance elsewhere. Maybe Grier trades one or two of them (probably Muk and Allen if we're being honest, maybe Cags if it comes to it) for a more proven defender. That might be a good plan, but only if he can find the right blue liner for the right price. Otherwise you're taking the chance of leaving talent on the table. But that's where the logjam is. That's part of the issue that needs to be dealt with.
That all being said we could run with what we have for next year, especially with the knowledge that in a couple of years we have Keaton and Lin coming. This blueline isn't technically the best but it's better than last year and has the potential to get better with time whereas last years got worse. There's decent veteran presence too with Orlov, Vinny, and Kesselring, but not anyone you would be angry at Warso for sending in in place of anyone else.
The second problem, and one that isnt quite as dire, is that we need secondary scoring. Mack can't carry all the scoring. But, as I said, this isn't as dire as people think either.
Our forwards are very young but its difficult to imagine that with full seasons and development, and some decent play time Misa, Cherny, Stenberg, Sherwood, Toffoli, Graf and maybe Gaudette can't put up 20ish goal seasons. Give or take.
If Mack can pull off another 40 goal season and Will can pull off 30 (he was on pace for 29 so I don't think that's an overreach) that's 200 goals.
If any of them go over 20 (Cherny was on pace for 25 and Stenberg is certainly capable of the same, and maybe Misa too if he gets the ice time) plus another 20 from Ostapchuk, Delly, and Wennberg, who between them made 24 goals this past season, you could realistically have a forward group that makes 230-240 goals next season. We only made 249 total last season. For reference the Avalanche made the most goals this season with 298.
That means that if we could get 40-50 goals from our blue line we would be in the top of scoring in the NHL. That's very possible. The blue line last year, being as bad as they were, made 29 goals. This group at least matching that if not putting up 10 more also feels reasonable.
That said, that's all dependent on things staying the way they are and any trades being made for better players who can put up similar or better numbers.
Going back to Will, 30+ goal scorers are pretty rare. Only 40 players in the league made more than 30 goals last season. That includes outliers like Mack, McDavid, and Celebrini. There are between 800 and 1000 players in the league.
Will is also in the 99th percentile in points made off of high danger passes meaning he can catch hard passes in dirty areas and bury them. He's in 97th percentile in high danger passes made which means he can get the puck to someone else in the dirty areas too. He has a corsi 4 of 64.1 meaning that when hes on the ice the sharks take 64.1% of the shots made.
All that coming together, Will Smith is a very difficult player to replace entirely on his own.
And yes, Mack should factor here too somewhat. Mack is one of the top players in the world and we know from watching other top players like McDavid that finding wingers who can play with them without being a liability and look good doing it is extremely difficult. At the 4 Nations they tried Marner, a very good player on his wing and Marner looked slow and clunky despite not playing badly. Because he was next to McDavid. Even very good players have trouble looking good next to superstars.
There is a thought process that anyone can play with Celebrini and look good next to him but with the way he's developing we are rapidly reaching a point where that is no longer true. There's a reason the left winger position was a revolving door this season. Look at Sherwood and Kurashev. Sherwood is a good player but he couldn't make it on that line. Kurashev is not only a good player but one that made it next to WillMack earlier in the season. But by the end of the season he couldn't do it anymore.
Look at the issues Chicago is having finding a winger for Bedard. The Sharks have a winger for Celebrini. Giving him up is a mistake and one that would bite them later.
When Will was injured and Mack went on his hot streak Mack averaged 1.85 points a game. People love to use this to prove that Will doesnt do anything. But 2 things stick out to me here.
One, all goal scorers are streaky. All of them, including Mack. Mack had almost as many 3 point games as he did 0 point games (18 and 22 i believe) and went on several hot streaks last year. In all of those hot streaks he averaged 1.8 - 2 points per game. That's normal for him. The streak while Will was out was the longest of course but still the average was actually low comparatively.
Two, the reason Mack did so well is because he took most of it on himself. There wasn't anyone he could really trust out there. He came to trust Cherny but Cherny was a rookie in his first few games in the NHL and Mack didn't know him. He learned to trust Graf too but that also took time. Mack trusts Will. That's hard to come by.
Again, all this coming together if you were going to trade Will you would need someone of similar value. Someone who could be counted on to play well with your generational player, who could be counted on for 25-30+ goals a season to keep you moving towards the top on the pack offensively, who could make and catch really difficult passes, and who could get into the dirty areas around the net and bury goals or make plays happen. There aren't a lot of guys out there like that and most of them dont come cheap. The only one I can think of that would end up being an upgrade is Jason Robertson. And he wants Celebrini money which I doubt Grier would pay.
Of course the trade everyone is talking about is Smith for Werenski. That also doesnt make sense for the Sharks. First of all because he's only under contract for 2 more seasons and there's no guarantee he would resign. If he doesnt you've just lost Will for a guy that won't even be around when we're contenders.
Secondly, you lose a core guy that you then have to spend more assets on to replace, which again wouldn't be easy. And while he would do wonders for the defense he wouldn't make up for what you lose in Will plus be the improvement you need on the blueline. If you were to trade Will for a blue liner that blue liner would need to make 30 goals a year to make up the difference. Werenski is a point a game player but he only made 22 goals.
No one in the league is safe. Even Gretzky got traded so of course it is possible that Will gets moved but its difficult to see at this point. In a few years that may change, no one knows what the future holds, but at this point I dont think you trade him. He helps fix a glaring problem you have and would likely create another if he did leave.
gummygunk
kianamaiart
