Echoes of a Collapsing Empire: 1655 Sweden, 2025 Ukraine
Weeks agoâwho knows whyâI picked up Henryk Sienkiewiczâs The Deluge. I had been planning to read it for years, even postponing it for no clear reason. But the time was ripe; perhaps, without realizing it, the current geopolitical climate, especially the war in Ukraine, pushed me toward it.
The first volume of the trilogy, With Fire and Sword, deals with the Cossack uprising on Ukrainian soil, led by the Zaporozhian hetman Bohdan Khmelnytskyâa figure who also appears in modern Ukrainian historical narratives. And here we are, in 2025, with the modern Russo-Ukrainian War still ragingâthough it could just as well be called the American-Russian-Ukrainian war. At first, reading was a bit painful: Sienkiewicz so vividly portrays the unraveling of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealthâthe distrust of the nobility toward their king (at the time, Jan II Casimir), the perpetual wars with Ukrainian Cossacks, the Russian attacks on Lithuania, and an exhausted nation unable to recover. Then, in 1655, the Swedes invaded under Arvid Wittenberg. Many nobles did not even think of resisting; betrayal was common; organizing the defense was slow and chaotic. The Commonwealth was cracking at its very foundations.
Itâs a tale of heroic struggle, but also of the decline of a once-great power.
So what are the signs of a declining stateâor a declining empire?
History offers many models. The fall of the Roman Empire took centuries and led to a dark Middle Ages. But empires that rose quickly often disappeared just as fast, usually bound together by the charisma of a single leaderâlike the Mongol Empire, which fractured soon after Genghis Khanâs death. Decline is also visible at the societal level: in Rome, a shortage of resources was key. Expansionist empires inevitably hit the ceiling of their growth; then begins the slow slide downward. Changing circumstancesâclimate shifts, geopolitical changesâcan trigger shortages, from raw materials to manpower. Both the Roman and Ottoman empires suffered from a shortage of slaves; later, chronic food shortages further weakened Rome until its final collapse.
A declining empire also tends to misjudge its own strength, losing more and more battlesâopenings its enemies are quick to exploit.
In the current U.S.âRussia confrontation (with Ukraine as the proxy), who shows these symptoms?
I would say both. Russiaâs system is built around Putin; after him, itâs unclear who could hold the country together. Prigozhinâs mutiny was one example of the systemâs fragility. Yet the successes of summer 2025 also showed that, for all its problems, Russia is stronger than many of its opponents assumedâor hoped. It was never the richest superpower, but perhaps its weaknesses were overestimated.
The U.S. is the more interesting case. By now itâs clear that in Ukraine, Washington is ultimately after raw materialsâresources that Russian forces are slowly taking over, such as the lithium mines near Velyka Novosilka and the Pokrovske mines, where Metinvest has holdings. These interests explain why the U.S. is pouring so much money into a war it is not winning. The worldâs most powerful military finding itself unable to secure these assets is a bitter pill to swallow. Viewed alongside the chaotic, humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan, it suggests that the U.S. has reached the limits of its military power. Its hunger for resources, and the assumption that they could be securedâeven militarilyâwas a miscalculation. And I havenât even touched on the countryâs internal social fractures.
In The Deluge, the weakening of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth brought immense suffering to ordinary peasants. Even many of the lesser nobles resorted to looting to survive. Rogue bands pillaged on their own initiative. For peasants fleeing burning villages, it mattered little whether their lord was Polish, Swedish, or Prussianâthey wanted peace and security. People in Ukraine want the same today.
But the geopolitical reshuffling now underway will bring suffering not only there, but elsewhere, too.
Source: Echoes of a Collapsing Empire: 1655 Sweden, 2025 Ukraine
