Reflections on Changes since 2015
Final weekend in June 2026. Summer has returned with a vengeance. Fortunately, the air conditioning was fixed a while back. Looking like it will be a long summer.
One good thing about the heat and humidity is that my joints don't hurt nearly as much now as they did in the winter. At least until the thunderstorms arrive.
I'm thinking a lot about my grandmother. She was born on June 28, 1918. She died in 2015. I'm thinking of all the changes she saw in her lifetime. I wrote a blog entry about this on this date in 2018. I'm now starting to think of the changes I've seen just since my grandma passed in 2015.
We had the world where Donald Trump was a real estate man and not a politician. Britian has had several prime ministers come and go. Brexit happened. We had a pandemic that killed millions of people all over the world. AI has become as common as smart phones. In 2015, AI was still mostly in the lab and not very good. Search engines were still a big deal before they branched into AI. Nvidia was known mainly by serious computer gamers. SpaceX and Tesla weren't household names. Open AI wasn't around. Drugs to treat obesity weren't available to mass market. Podcasts were still niche. Self-driving cars were still experimental and not really available. EVs were mostly a niche luxury market. AI friends and lovers were science fiction. I liked Scarlett Johansen in the movie 'Her.' Turns out that is now science fact and not the science fiction it was a dozen years ago. Crypto currency was mostly limited to bitcoin and still very niche. Everyone (me included) thought 3D printers would be in every home the same way desktop computers were before the development of smart phones. Some predictions didn't pan out.
As far as I know, I think more people in the world own smart phones than have easy access to safe drinking water. The level of AI we have today, well in 2015, was considered several decades away by most people. Hardly a day goes by where at least one company isn't announcing layoffs (driven in part by automation and AI). China's economy is probably bigger than even the U.S. economy. Most developed countries had birth rates decline below replacement level, whereas fifty years ago most people were worried about people having too many children. Turns out that prosperity and mass education reduced population growth to the point that many people are now worried that we won't have enough people to keep civilization functioning at our current levels. Who can even guess what people of the 2070s will be worrying about in those regards?
In 2015 we weren't spending trillions of dollars on building data centers and upgrading the power grid to power AI. In 2015, global trade was still relatively easy. Russia and Ukraine hadn't gone to war. The US at war with Iran and Venezuela was unthinkable. Groceries were probably less than half the price they are now. Housing was still somewhat affordable. Gig work was mostly for younger people and retirees looking for extra income and not the necessity it is now. The idea of a person having a net worth of over one trillion dollars was the stuff of dystopic science fiction. Multi generational housing wasn't common. Now it's a necessity for many people. Heck, even I lived with my parents for two and a half years looking for a permanent home I initially thought would come open in only a few months.
I think the biggest change most people, me included, didn't expect by 2026 was that white collar office jobs would be easily automated by AI. I figured it would happen eventually, I didn't think it would happen by 2026. So now we have people who have tens of thousands in student loans because they were told that office jobs were safe from automation as recently as five years ago. The kids who would have never thought about the trades in 2015 are seriously looking at them now. The idea of Universal Basic Income was radical. Now it's starting to look like might be needed if we don't want millions of people in the streets starving and rioting.
Even though millions of jobs have been displaced and millions of people died during the pandemic, the stock market is doing better than ever. I imagine some people made more playing the stock and crypto markets than they ever did in a regular forty hour a week job. The stock market has gone from a rich person's activity to almost a necessity for anyone wanting to manage money. Heaven knows banks won't pay enough interest on savings accounts to even keep up with inflation. So much for the internet revolution making life cheaper. That was definitely the big prediction I personally got wrong.
A heck of a lot has changed since my grandma died in 2015. It seems like almost a lifetime of change was forced into barely over a decade. No wonder people are withdrawing and discouraged. I understand why many fear we are already living in a cyberpunk dystopia in 2026. We literally have near Star Trek like technology with the political and social leadership that hasn't updated since at least the 1990s. Too many of our politicians, at least here in the west, still think like it's 1996 and not 2026. In fact, many of the politicians we had in 1996 are still in power.
Source: Reflections on Changes since 2015
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