Questioning the “50% of the world is urban” statistic
Among evangelicals, “urbanization” is a key theme being picked up on for missions and ministry strategy. One of my favorite pastor/authors and the missions agency I financially and personally support have focused on it recently in tweets:
Over half of the world's population lives in global urban centers. #WhyWeGo http://t.co/v6WwjC6nAF
We need churches everywhere there are people but the people of the world are moving into cities much faster than the church is statistically
— Timothy Keller (@timkellernyc)
Cities will contain 75% of the world’s population by 2050.
— Timothy Keller (@timkellernyc)
My point in this post is not to argue with the “go where most people are” strategy. For a missions agency or a church trying to do their best to share the gospel and use their resources well, I can understand that.
My problem is with using words inaccurately to motivate people to go serve in specific locations, mainly with the unclear use of the world “urban” or “city”. The United Nations study that the IMB cites does say, “ More than one half of the world population lives now in urban areas.” But it also says.
“There is no common global definition of what constitutes an urban settlement”
“ No attempt is made to impose consistency in definitions across countries. “
“The criteria for classifying an area as urban may be based on one or a combination of characteristics, such as: a minimum population threshold; population density; proportion employed in non-agricultural sectors; the presence of infrastructure such as paved roads, electricity, piped water or sewers; and the presence of education or health services.”
[That’s right, some countries classify areas as urban because they have roads or running water. And the minimum population for an “urban cluster” in the U.S. census in 2010 was 2500]
The only two categories to define any area of population in the study is rural or urban. Urban essentially means “not rural” in the report.
" Close to half of the world’s urban dwellers reside in relatively small settlements of less than 500,000 inhabitants, while only around one in eight live in the 28 mega-cities with more than 10 million inhabitants.” (emphasis mine)
“The most urbanized regions include Northern America (82 per cent living in urban areas in 2014).”
In addition to the UN report, the U.S. Census of 2010 classifies the following areas in my home state as urban (part of that 82% above):
My home town of Arkadelphia (population 10,491 people)
Hot Springs Village--a retirement community with about 9 golf courses
Bald Knob, population 2517
My problem is not the missions strategy. It’s how we use words to motivate. When the word “urban” gets used, most people I know think of something like New York City. No one I know things of Hot Springs Village, even though the U.N. technically says it is.
My problem is when we shift meanings of words to suit our arguments. When someone says, “Everyone is going urban, so the church must go urban,” they use the UN’s definition the first time and usually something like a “mega-city” definition for the second instance. They switch from apples to oranges in the same sentence.
(A related downside is that, if we’re not careful, in our promotion of mega-city ministry, we can diminish the good ministry of people working anywhere but those 28 cities. I don’t think that’s anyone’s intention, but sometimes it feels that way.)
If the call was “1/8th of the urbanized world lives in 28 cities, let’s focus on those,” I could at least get behind that as more semantically consistent.
But if you hear someone say “go to the cities because 50% of the world is urban and almost 66% will be by 2050″, then your first question should be, “What do you mean by urban?” If they cite the UN study, then about 80% of Americans are already there.