CRITERIA: All players in this column are owned in less than half (50%) of all ESPN fantasy baseball leagues at the time of posting. Ownership rates listed next to each player correspond to ESPN leagues.Ā ALSO NOTE that this column has a stern focus on 12-16 team standard fantasy leagues, specifically those with a 5Ć5 Rotisserie/Head-to-Head format.
Ross Stripling, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers (29.8%)
Ā Through 41.1 innings pitched this season, Ross Stripling is currently 1.4 Wins Above Replacement: a figure that ranks higher than Charlie Morton,Ā Jose Berrios, and teammateĀ Alex Wood.
Let that marinate for a momentā¦
In a combined 174.1 career innings pitched between the starting rotation and the bullpen leading up to the 2018 campaign, Stripling was only worth 1.8 WAR ā but here we are,Ā literally talking about a top-20 starting pitcher in fantasy.
A lot of what has led to this distinction is very legit. Look at this magnificent Statcast profile, where all the categories in red indicate either a top-10 or top-5 ranking in all of baseball:
Ross Stripling has been a master of weak contact all along!? The data suggests so, and the surface stats this year have echoed that to the heavens. ButĀ howĀ is he doing this?
Hereās one way heās doing this:
Ā In an age of high launch angles and hitters who look likeĀ Dee Gordon muscling up pitches downstairs for power, Stripling hasĀ lived in the most desired part of the strikezone with astounding success. He throws his curveball exclusively on the bottom half, and itās a masterful strikeout offering there as itās limited hitters to a .115 wOBA and has generated over 43% whiffs. I could throw more heatmaps at you explaining how his fastball is suddenly so good, but thatās simply just a matter of him heaving more of them upstairs to righties consistently (and those same righties are only hitting .200 up there).
His slider, despite registering relatively low whiffs, has become Striplingās primary source of weak contact. Besides his changeup (another great pitch, but one that he hardly throws for some reason), no other offering in his repertoire has a lower average exit velocity against hitters ā and heās throwing it the most (33.6% usage rate). He could do a better job at keeping it below the belt, as only 42% of them have hit the lower-third of the strikezone, but itās been really good at avoiding barrels (51% groundball rate, 38.5% infield flyball rate) while the fastball and curve do most of the dirty, swing-and-missy stuff.
You wouldnāt believe this, but thereās a decent chance that Striplingās been unlucky this whole time! Dude has a .352 BABIP, but that .211 expected batting average in the table above says itāll actually regress substantially. Couple that with the low exit velocities, and if Iām being honest here: weāre looking at breakout-Jake Arrieta-level contact management!
Now, onto the legitimacy of Striplingās 24.3% K-BB%: right now, itās a little fluky. The walk-limiting is very legit (69.8% first-pitch strike rate, 47.5% Zone rate), but he doesnāt complement that with a ton of swing and miss (9.8% swinging strike rate). Hitters are also making a lot of overall contact (79.1%), so Iād have to believe the combination of a 32.7% K rate and 7.6 swinging strike rate on his fastball is infused with a gooey center of called third strikes. If he threw the curveball more, Iād melt all over the chair from which Iām writing this, but thereās a lot of pitching to contact going on with the high usage of both his fastball and slider. Thereās definitely 22-23% K rate upside here, but if he wants to punch guys out with the big boys heās gonna need to go full McCullers.
Either way (and I might be getting just a little ahead of myself when I say this), Ross Stripling, right now in this very moment, looks like a fantasy gem: the kind of waiver wire add that leads owners one step closer to a trophy in October. Thereās way, way too much here to love, and although the strikeouts will come crashing down to a level somewhere in-between his first two Major League seasons, Stripling seems to have learned a few things in the bullpen that have carried over. Heās living proof that the depth in this Dodgers rotation, despite all the injuries theyāve already endured so far this season, is truly remarkable.
Ā *Jack Flaherty (52.6%) & Alex Reyes (50.8%), SP, St. Louis Cardinals*
*Yes, I know theyāre both over 50% ownership now!! But I started compiling this list three days ago, where they were both sitting around 40%.*
By now, itās probably too late for me to endorse either of these gentlemen in deep leagues, but both of them still (somehow) fit the criteria of my column,Ā so itās virtually a foolās errand if I donāt say a few things about them. Starting with Flaherty (since heās currently the healthy one), Iāve noticed that heās grown quite fond of his slider: a pitch that has held hitters to a .095 opp. batting average on a 45.5% K rate. Itās a truly devastating offering.
Ā (Obviously, you need to stop reading this from here and pick him up if heās still lingering in your waiver wireā¦)
Ā Heāll desperately need that pitch all season long to stay relevant, for two reasons:
Like any other breakout starter this season (see: Pivetta, Nick), the high usage of his slider (26.6%) makes his fastball just a smidge more effective (21.2% K rate and .250 opp. OPS)
He shelves his curveball (10.7% usage,) and throws his sinker too much (17.4% usage, 1.269 opp. OPS)
Thereāll be nights where heāll get pounded, because his sinkerās so insanely hittable ā but those will likely be offset by other outings where his fastball/slider combo is taking the world by storm. This is truly all a matter of pitch selection: something youād hope heād improve on as he continues to rely on his strike-throwing ability (45.5% Zone rate) to get back to his strikeout offering.
Something else Iād like to point out about Flaherty that I (really, really) like is how heās attacking lefties:
Consistency in baseball could sometimes mean insanity, where a pitcherās confidently doing something horribly wrong thatās leading to poor results. Thatās certainly not (yet) the case here, with Flaherty making a very conscious effort to work glove-side against opposite-handed batters.
And itās working: Despite racking up three more Ks against righties, heās been holding left-handers to a .200/.289/.200 slash, without allowing a single homer against them.
The upside with Flaherty resides in his command, his slider, and whether or not heāll start mixing in his curveball more and ditch his sinker. Heās got two out of the three so far, which a chance at top-30-ish results if he could make a few in-game adjustments.
Alex Reyes is presumably making his big league return this Tuesday against the Brewers, after missing all of last season due to Tommy John surgery. Heās gotten plenty of time to shake off the rust, but with a 44/7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 23 scoreless rehab innings thereās not much that suggests his recovery has been a slow burn. I donāt have much tabular data to hype you all up here, but there is this fun little tidbit by SB Nation that offers a glimpse at what heās capable of.Ā His last rehab start had him finishing with 13 punch outs over 7 innings of work ā including a stretch where he struck out 9 straight hitters ā and granted him the opportunity to express an increasing level of confidence in his stuff.
Expect great things from Reyes this season, health-permitting, because it sounds an awful lot like heās all the way back to form, with renewed vigor on his side. His arsenal is immaculate, and if heās in the business of attacking the strikezone for St. Louis the same way he did back in Memphis, then the ceiling is the roofĀ for sure.
Ā Andrew Heaney, SP, Los Angeles Angels (31.1%)Ā
If you missed out on the three guys above (which is very possible considering how hot theyāre both flying off the shelves right now), then stop everything youāre doing right now and pick up this sterling alternative.
From a 61.9% first pitch strike rate (48th best in the league if it qualified), an 11.9% Swinging Strike rate (tied for 27th best), andĀ one of the lowest average exit velocities in all of baseballā¦
ā¦Heaney ā like the aforementioned Reyes ā has come all the back from Tommy John Surgery guns blazing. Heās owned righties to the tune of a 27% K rate and a .683 opp. OPS, upped the usage of his devastating curveball to a career-high 24.5% clip, and has discovered a true equalizer in his third pitch ā the changeup (5.1 pVAL, which would trailĀ Zack Greinke for fifth-highest inĀ the Majors). Solid control, a universally great arsenal, a top-20 K-rate, and fantastic contact management skills all amount to an ace-like value if the stars continue to align like they are right now. Iāve been singing my praises of Andrew Heaney for weeks, and after aĀ dominant performance in Yankee Stadium, itās about time you do, too.Ā BUY, BUY, BUY!!
Ā Daniel Mengden (27.4%) & Trevor Cahill (24.2%), SP, Oakland Athletics
The hope for myself and my fantasy baseball column is that, within the next week or two, Iāll have compiled enough viable evidence to offer up sprawling, comprehensive Sell-High/Buy-Low articles thatāll help you gain a leg up above the competition as the season reaches āgrind or go homeā territory. As an owner of three separate fantasy teams, I think itās vitally important to know the true value of each and every player I have, and have an idea of what direction theyāre all headed in.
Daniel Mengden is headed in a direction that woefully disagrees with his current success, but this isnāt a Sell-High article, and you donāt always win fantasy matchups by playing the FIP game. This is a buy for the short term, in the hopes that the 25-year oldās .246 BABIP (17th lowest in all of baseball) could hold off his average exit velocity (89.2, 44th highest out of 138 starting pitchers) and expected slugging percentage (xSLG) of .507Ā just a bit longer while owners wait for their pitching staffs to heal up, or for the next Jack Flaherty/Alex Reyes/Ross Stripling/Andrew Heaney to arrive. Mengden is without a doubt a stop gap pitcher, and if you think Iām simply coming after him because of his discountĀ Rollie Fingers āstache, then allow me to elaborate further:
These are Mengdenās whiffs this season. His slider is the only pitch thatās generating a double-digit whiff rate (per BrooksBaseball). The sinker, a new pitch heās supposedly developed this year, has not only helped prevent him from currently having a league-average strikeout rate, but itās also not generating sinker-level groundballs (43.2% groundball rate). His hard hit rate, according to Fangraphs, isĀ wayyyyyyy higher than itās ever been, but heās also getting twice as many infield flies than before. Hitters are also making a lot of contact against him (82.3%), so that wonāt really matter in the long run.
But the short run value is decent enough to warrant an add. Heās not walking people (0.81 BB/9), I just mentioned his newfound ability to get a ton of pop-ups, and his Swinging Strike and Chase rates arenāt nearly as bad as his K rate suggests they are. I think he could skate by long enough for you to throw stones at me in June when I (hopefully) fire up my Sell-High piece.
Ā If he stays healthy all season long, Trevor Cahill will probably have much better numbers than his teammate for a number of reasons. One of them is that his whiffs look like this:
Heās not a very sexy ROS pickup, either (heās extremely fragile, and his sinker and fastball are really that bad at getting swings and misses), but Cahill has a couple of good out pitches that could carry him to relevance the same way it did a season ago before he got hurt. The changeup, however, is why you pay for Cahill at all, as it is ā to put it bluntly ā the only reason reason why heās recently been a solid starting pitcher. Itās a pitch so spectacular (.364 opp. OPS, 44.4% whiff rate) that heās now throwing it almost as much as heās dishing out his sinker.
So long as he continues to mix his curveball enough (36.4% K rate, .636 opp. OPS) to complement those two other offerings, Cahill will be A-OK. Heās got a drool-worthy groundball rate thatāll help keep the homers in check, a contact profile highlighted by a 14% swinging strike clip, and the benefit of having about half of his starts at O.Co Colliseum Ricky Henderson Field. Sure, heāll probably land on the DL in a month or so, and heās still hard to watch when heās not throwing strikes (42.1% Zone rate, 29.9% Edge rating), but thereās no denying the instant value heāll provide to both your strikeouts and your ratios while heās active. Think of him as a Rich Hill-lite: the perfect high-floor, low-stress starting pitcher to round out any standard league rotation.
Ā Kyle Freeland, SP, Colorado Rockies (40.7%)
Now, this is going to be fun! Kyle Freeland, a soft-tossing left-hander who calls Coors Field home,Ā is probably the last guy on this list youād think of rostering in a standard league beyond the purposes of a (road) stream, but IĀ IMPLOREĀ you to reconsider as I convince you of his worthiness.
Letās look at a couple of graphs and talk about what they both mean, shall we?
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Okay, you probably have no idea where Iām getting that ā and thatās okay! Because Iām gonna ask that you take another look at his two months of work this season in both graphics, and then focus on that plot point and tabular data from July of 2017. What do they have in common? Besides opposing batting averages, Freelandās thrown the most four-seam fastballs in those months, with his xFIP is at its lowest in all three (if you ignore his body of work last August). He also un-coincidentally ditched his sinker during those three months, and the consistent use of his cutter/slider over the sinker this year is for good reason: itās a far,Ā FARĀ better complementary offering:
This month, in particular, Freelandās posted a 2.05 ERA on a 3.06 FIP, with a .245 opposing wOBA. This month, heās also buried his sinker pretty much entirely: heās only thrown it a little over 6% in May. If you combine his slider and cutter usage (according to BrooksBaseball), weāre looking at over 30% of them in May, and when combined with his four-seam weāre sitting at a 80% cumulative usage rate; good enough for an overall opposing batting average roughly around .170!
Now, if you happen to have already read Craig Edwardsās in-depth analysis of Freelandās new fastball approach on Fangraphs, Iām gonna sound like a bit of a broken record if I go on, because another reason for his recent dominance lies in the pitch tunneling heās discovered with the three pitches.Ā Ā Freeland is pitching like someone else entirely, and although the new approach hasnāt made himĀ tooĀ much better against right-handed hitters (8.3 K-BB rate against RHH), heās downright untouchable against same-handed guys now (38.9% K rate, .241 opp. wOBA against lefties). This is an easy deep league BUY, especially considering that his performance at home (1.97 ERA, 24.1% K rate, 1.14 WHIP) is pacing his away numbers (4.17 ERA, 16.1% K rate, 1.21 WHIP).
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FAST TAKES (Two-Start Fever)
Ā Vince Velasquez, SP, Philadelphia Phillies (22.7%)
Vince Velasquez is theĀ Dylan Bundy of the National League: An elite strikeout rate, an absolutely terrible flyball rate that leads to a ton of homers, and just about a league average walk rate. Heās the ultimate āboom-or-bustā starting pitcher, where youāll either get 6 IP, 2ER, 10Ks, or 4 IP, 7ER, & over 10 baserunners. Heās worth deploying with confidence in deeper leagues and NL-Onlys that need the strikeouts (especially with that upcoming road start at AT&T Park), but the big, big, BIG risk here is todayās meeting in Los Angeles, as the Dodgers (13th lowest K rate in MLB) are feeling more confident at the dish withĀ Justin Turner coming off the DL this past weekend.
Ā Kyle Gibson, SP, Minnesota Twins (20.1%)
Gibson has the light-hitting Royals on tap for Tuesdayās start, and heāll need to reign in the walks a bit (11.3% BB rate) to be successful against one of the best contact-producing lineups in the league. Youāre gonna wanna hope he does so that you could afford benching him against the hot-hitting IndiansĀ a week from now. Either way, heāll rack up plenty of strikeouts (11.9% swinging strike rate, 9.32 K/9) thanks to his wipeout slider and changeup. This will certainly be the week where he cements his fantasy status.
Ā Matt Boyd, SP, Detroit Tigers (14.2%)
Boyd has been rosterable all season, despite pitching just as poorly as he did a season ago from pretty much every angle of sabermetric analysis. His slider is a beaut (33.3% K rate, 15.85 swinging strike rate), and heās throwing it way more than ever, but the rest of his arsenal is really bad so it doesnāt matter in the long run.Ā Heās got the Angels (scary) today, and the Blue Jays (breezy) on Saturday, and I would like to believe that this will be where the ERA-outperforming, low-BABIP train makes its final stop.
Ā Marco Gonzales, SP, Seattle Mariners (7.1%)
I see a lot of primeĀ Jaime GarciaĀ in Marco Gonzalesā pitch mix and his ability to throw a ton of strikes, which is a good thing considering how important both will be for him to close the gap between his ERA (4.05) and his xFIP (3.21). I donāt think heāll ever limit the hard contact the way things have gone throughout his career, but with a 2.93 ERA over his last five starts, and a pair of home starts lined up against the light-hittingĀ Texas Rangers andĀ Tampa Bay Rays, it canāt possibly hurt to bet against that hurting his linescores too much.
Ā Domingo German, SP, New York Yankees (5.6%)
Alright, guys! Now, weāre approaching āstrictly deep league/AL/NL-Onlyā territory, here! Germanās outpiched his ERA by almost two full runs, while rocking a K/9 over 10 and a 13.6% swinging strike rate. His zone rate is not good at all (41.3%), so every at-bat is an adventure with him. Still, though: take a chance on his low hard-hit rate (30.7%, per BaseballSavant) and high curveball/changeup usage prevailing against theĀ Astros and theĀ Orioles. (Especially the Orioles; theyāre awful!)
Ā Dan Straily, SP, Miami Marlins (6.1%)
You know youāve gotta give Straily a try against the strikeout-prone Padres at Petco, but heās listed here because his weekend date with the Diamondbacks is equally enticing. Arizonaās offense has been putrid this month, tallying just over 2 runs per game, with Jake LambĀ getting absolutely no help from anyone else in this lineup whileĀ Goldy continues to scuffle out of control. Get in, get your two quality starts, and then get the hell outta Dodge!
Ā Brent Suter, SP, Milwaukee Brewers (2.5%)
I highly doubt thereās another active pitcher in baseball throwing a slower fastball than Brent Suter (86.7 average MPH), but luckily for you that may not matter as heās got the Cardinals at home, and the God-awful White Sox in Chicago. Both teams canāt hit lefties to save their lives, but keep in mind Suterās much-considerable platoon split. Somethingās gotta give here.
Ā Nick Tropeano, SP, Los Angeles Angels
Easily the āsleeperā stream of the week in 12-16 mixed leaguers, Nick Tropeano should have no problem keeping the BABIP down for a couple more turns as he takes on the Tigers (15th in OPS) in Detroit before hosting the Rangers (26th) in Anaheim. Heās got a neat 11.5% swinging strike rate, butĀ absolutely nothing else thatās positive, so donāt get too attached if he cruises through the next seven days.
Ā Hey guys! Do you agree or disagree with my list here? Were there any āsleepersā that you may have scooped up that I ignored? Letās talk about it! Leave a comment below and get the conversation started!!
Ā Ā *FANTASY BASEBALL 2018* Stock Exchange ā Starting Pitchers to add this weekĀ (5/28) CRITERIA: All players in this column are owned in less than half (50%) of all ESPN fantasy baseball leagues at the time of posting.
